Lace up ‘em shoes, IT’S IOWA WEEK
- Thread starter slushhead
- Start date
If this pans out, how many more shirts get burned before March?
Predictions thus far seem reasonable and plausible. We know anything can happen in Carver.
A few additional thoughts:
- 125: Ayala has looked solid psychologically thus far, but will he be as cool a cucumber on this stage? The pressure will be intense, as this weight is as much a “must win” for the Hawkeyes in this dual as any other. Important for B1G seeding, as well.
- 174: Starocci is scrambling very well, and I loved his performance in that department vs Massa. I like him in a close one vs Kemerer.
- 197: We know how Warner wrestles. If Dean doesn’t fall for the quick go-behind, I would not be surprised in the least to see this match decided without a TD scored. Thinking RT in tiebreakers.
- 285:
A few additional thoughts:
- 125: Ayala has looked solid psychologically thus far, but will he be as cool a cucumber on this stage? The pressure will be intense, as this weight is as much a “must win” for the Hawkeyes in this dual as any other. Important for B1G seeding, as well.
- 174: Starocci is scrambling very well, and I loved his performance in that department vs Massa. I like him in a close one vs Kemerer.
- 197: We know how Warner wrestles. If Dean doesn’t fall for the quick go-behind, I would not be surprised in the least to see this match decided without a TD scored. Thinking RT in tiebreakers.
- 285:
There is no bigger fan of Carter on this board than me. However, I worry about him coming out too hot i.e. Mark Hall and gassing himself. I think if he comes out and wrestles a measured match against Kem, he will get him on his quickness and athleticism. He needs to find his angles, finish quickly, and ride for as long as possible. He should wrestle from space and take advantage of his quickness and strength. The single to double quick finish.
But he is susceptible to getting Carvered. The first minute of this match will be telling.
Point well taken, though I am less concerned about that scenario. In the Hall example, I credit the unchecked adrenaline 100% to what Cenzo had just done to Marinelli. Who couldn’t run out there after that like the Kool-Aid Man looking for 10 brick walls?
I’m guessing the circumstances are different enough here that Starocci will be fine. Maybe different if he were a freshman or had never faced Kemerer. But he’s seen Kemerer multiple times and on a bigger stage.
125- Feels like a complete toss up.
133- RBY has figured Desanto out. +3
141- Lee is relentless. +3
149- BB has the talent to win but Murin is strong. =3
157- Young is bigger and stronger than anyone PSU has here. -3
165- Bull will win barely. -3
174- Complete toss up
184- Brooks wrestles harder than Assad plus way better +4
197- Complete toss up imo. Warner is extremely strong in his hips and very hard to turn. Dean will need a takedown.
285- Complete toss up.
PSU needs two of the tossup matches and avoid bonus. If this were an NCAA tournament situation I think PSU would go 4-0 in these toss up matches, but a dual in Carver is Iowa's Super Bowl. They will be all in to win this dual because deep down they understand the team title probably isn't going back to Iowa City for a long time now. I won't be surprised if Iowa wins this dual, but my gut says PSU by a point or two.
133- RBY has figured Desanto out. +3
141- Lee is relentless. +3
149- BB has the talent to win but Murin is strong. =3
157- Young is bigger and stronger than anyone PSU has here. -3
165- Bull will win barely. -3
174- Complete toss up
184- Brooks wrestles harder than Assad plus way better +4
197- Complete toss up imo. Warner is extremely strong in his hips and very hard to turn. Dean will need a takedown.
285- Complete toss up.
PSU needs two of the tossup matches and avoid bonus. If this were an NCAA tournament situation I think PSU would go 4-0 in these toss up matches, but a dual in Carver is Iowa's Super Bowl. They will be all in to win this dual because deep down they understand the team title probably isn't going back to Iowa City for a long time now. I won't be surprised if Iowa wins this dual, but my gut says PSU by a point or two.
Even Todd Connor posting bulletin board material to motivate the Hawkeyes . . . no pressure or anything — just the cost of 14,000 season tickets to justify. 😁
Its Iowa week...A week that lives long in the lives of intranet warriors. A week that has sent many a good poster to intranet Valhalla. A memorial service for those who have given the ultimate anonymous poster sacrifice will be taking place at the Shrine at midnight on Thursday. A 21 gun salute will be held following the playing of select Green Day songs.
We do battle year round but it is this week in particular when all measures and counter measures must be taken. The enemy has seen its numbers dwindle. The enemy has seen its post views crater. But yet our enemy remains cagey and ever willing to bite and claw their way to victory.
So far we have secretly enlisted the help a poster only known to us as Z and he has taken the first arrows from the rebels. It was a surprise offensive, making many of the rebels harden their already ridged defenses. It was this surprise offensive that we must use to our advantage, as it will only be there this week and then gone into the wind, like sands through an hour glass. These are the days of our lives.
Our black ops team lead by JTS are deployed but awaiting further orders. I use JTS as an alias to protect the innocents from reprisal.
Secret cables have been sent to our friends over at OnA4s and a very select few will be joining our leadership team. Its also been confirmed that those at 247 will be once again protecting our rear.
It is hour 1 of day 1 of our offensive .....
Please use your office time wisely and your refresh button sparingly. Its going to be a F** week.....
We do battle year round but it is this week in particular when all measures and counter measures must be taken. The enemy has seen its numbers dwindle. The enemy has seen its post views crater. But yet our enemy remains cagey and ever willing to bite and claw their way to victory.
So far we have secretly enlisted the help a poster only known to us as Z and he has taken the first arrows from the rebels. It was a surprise offensive, making many of the rebels harden their already ridged defenses. It was this surprise offensive that we must use to our advantage, as it will only be there this week and then gone into the wind, like sands through an hour glass. These are the days of our lives.
Our black ops team lead by JTS are deployed but awaiting further orders. I use JTS as an alias to protect the innocents from reprisal.
Secret cables have been sent to our friends over at OnA4s and a very select few will be joining our leadership team. Its also been confirmed that those at 247 will be once again protecting our rear.
It is hour 1 of day 1 of our offensive .....
Please use your office time wisely and your refresh button sparingly. Its going to be a F** week.....
Devil's advocate.
If we go purely by rankings on intermat, there are only 4 weights where the wrestlers are more than 3 spots apart.
Iowa holds the advantage at 3 of those 4 (149, 157, and 165) while we hold the advantage at 184. If the others are considered toss-ups we will need to pull off an upset (per rankings) or win 4 of the 6 toss-ups.
Okay, now I'll put my Bluewhite glasses back on ... 19-12 PSU.
If we go purely by rankings on intermat, there are only 4 weights where the wrestlers are more than 3 spots apart.
Iowa holds the advantage at 3 of those 4 (149, 157, and 165) while we hold the advantage at 184. If the others are considered toss-ups we will need to pull off an upset (per rankings) or win 4 of the 6 toss-ups.
Okay, now I'll put my Bluewhite glasses back on ... 19-12 PSU.
This post was flagged on HR as dabbling in conspiracies.
Is it not interesting that Penn State was in the state of Michigan for TWO duals over the weekend and then has to again travel a few days later to Iowa while Iowa wrestled only on Friday and have been sleeping comfortably at home focused only on Penn State since Saturday?
I thought it was anyway.
Any chance they wheel Grandpa Mike out in a wheelchair for introductions, that would be PRICELESS.
This could happen…
25 - Drew major decision over Ybarra. Ayala is out after DeSanto breaks his arm with a Kimura during practice. PSU 4-0.
33 - RBY - Wins by Medical Forfeit when DeSanto taps out. After the match, DeSanto assaults Schriever’s dad because he sneezed during the match. 1 team point deducted for Iowa due to DeSanto’s transgression. PSU 10 - (-) 1.
41 - Lee by decision. Eierman immediately placed on Oxygen post match due to gassing so hard. PSU 13- (-) 1.
49 - Bartlett by decision in SV. A sobbing Murin causes match delay while the mat is dried. PSU 16 - (-) 1.
57 - Negrón by decision. Uncle Tony slams Terry in post match scuffle. PSU 19 - (-) 1.
65 - Berge by decision. When Bull is momentarily distracted by Moriah flashing him matside, Berge gets late TD to seal it. PSU 22 - (-) 1.
74 - Starocci by medical forfeit after tearing Kemerer’s arm off at the weakened shoulder joint. A tough Kem protests, claiming, “It’s only a flesh wound!” PSU 28 - (-) 1.
84 - AB by fall, becomes enraged after being bitten by Assad, who was heeding Nelson’s advice. PSU 34 - (-) 1.
97 - Dean by decision with 6:30 RT. PSU 37 - (-) 1.
HW - Kerk by fall, pins skinny Cass who weighs in at 211 pounds.
Final PSU 43 Iowa (-)1.
25 - Drew major decision over Ybarra. Ayala is out after DeSanto breaks his arm with a Kimura during practice. PSU 4-0.
33 - RBY - Wins by Medical Forfeit when DeSanto taps out. After the match, DeSanto assaults Schriever’s dad because he sneezed during the match. 1 team point deducted for Iowa due to DeSanto’s transgression. PSU 10 - (-) 1.
41 - Lee by decision. Eierman immediately placed on Oxygen post match due to gassing so hard. PSU 13- (-) 1.
49 - Bartlett by decision in SV. A sobbing Murin causes match delay while the mat is dried. PSU 16 - (-) 1.
57 - Negrón by decision. Uncle Tony slams Terry in post match scuffle. PSU 19 - (-) 1.
65 - Berge by decision. When Bull is momentarily distracted by Moriah flashing him matside, Berge gets late TD to seal it. PSU 22 - (-) 1.
74 - Starocci by medical forfeit after tearing Kemerer’s arm off at the weakened shoulder joint. A tough Kem protests, claiming, “It’s only a flesh wound!” PSU 28 - (-) 1.
84 - AB by fall, becomes enraged after being bitten by Assad, who was heeding Nelson’s advice. PSU 34 - (-) 1.
97 - Dean by decision with 6:30 RT. PSU 37 - (-) 1.
HW - Kerk by fall, pins skinny Cass who weighs in at 211 pounds.
Final PSU 43 Iowa (-)1.
This is pretty much exactly as I see it
Edit for actual predictions:
25: +3 Iowa
33: +3 Blue
41: +3 Blue
49: +3 Iowa
57: +3 Iowa
65: +3 Iowa
74: +3 Blue
84: +4 Blue
97: +3 Iowa
285: +3 Blue
25, 74 and 97 are really tough to pick. I’m trying to temper excitement for Kerk until we see more of him knocking off the guys he couldn’t beat last year, but no way would I pick against him after he picked Parris apart.
I had this exact thought, especially after the Massa match this weekend.
Maybe I'm just not used to the new and improved Carter Starocci, but I thought he looked uncharacteristically hyper-aggressive as opposed to his normal controlled but immovable pace I'm used to seeing. And that (hyper-aggressive) is not how I would describe his 3rd period.
Like you mentioned, we saw Mark Hall, one of the most cerebral/fundamentally-sound wrestlers in recent history, get Carvered twice. If it can happen to him, it can happen to anyone*.
*Except Bo Nickal, Iowa Wrestling's biological father.
The Southern Reserve has mobilized and can issue a flank offensive, if needed.
All part of the process. I'm sure Cael wouldn't have it any other way.
The Hawks can peak for the dual if they want, but the big prize comes in March.
I heard the reason Iowa didn’t have a 2nd dual meet wrestling match over the weekend was that they ran out of redshirts to pull.
Its going to be a good dual meet if both send out starters, to many toss ups to predict a winner, so I’ll just enjoy great wrestling.
One team will be better prepared in March to win on 3 consecutive days on the road.
i know your post was a joke, but there maybe some truth to something like this. Let’s see who lines up for Iowa at 125.
I like using probability analysis. Applying your confidence scale, my back-of-the-envelope calculations have Iowa winning 15.33 to 14.67. 👎Just posted this on HR a few minutes ago, but here's my thoughts on Friday:
I'm not even going to bother trying to predict this one... Could be anywhere from a 5-5 split to 8-2(unlikely, but possible) for either team.
I'm going with more of a confidence scale for this one. Going with the Mark Hall random number percentages as well
83% confident in Iowa win
165
157
68%
149
54%
197
47%
285
174
125
39%
141
26%
133
17%
184
However, if I use mcpat's suggested adjustments (I arbitrarily reduced the Bull's odds of winning from 83% to 68% and put the Dean-Warner match at 50/50), then PSU wins 15.24 to 14.76. 👍
Of course, the permutations are endless. But if Brooks wins by major and all the other matches end as regular decisions, then PSU wins 15.50 to 15.33 using jrod65's confidence scale.👍
Fair enough. I don't think Slim Tone being slim helps his cause at all. Probably doesn't matter what body type given the ease that Kerk got out from underneath last Friday, I just want to see it more than once before being too confident
If there isn't one fan yelling he's stalling at carver. Now that would be priceless.
Lets see win Nationals or more cuze Guess he went with more cuze
While I want to win by a landslide, I also would love to see the scenario, at some point, where we beat Iowa by a point after they have an unsportsmanlike deduction of a team point for their antics.
Nothing arbitrary about my adjustments. I transformed the data using the natural log of its inverse, modeled it using a Bernoulli distribution, fitted a regression line, measured the r-squares and p-values and repeated the process on an interative basis until I minimized the sum of the squares of the residuals.
I assumed that was the case, but I didn't want to be presumptuous.
It's been some 55 years since I really worked on stat and prob. I'm torn between "sounds reasonable" and " It was clear as mud but it covered the ground And the confusion made me brain go round". Thanks for the memories.
If the team I saw wrestle this past Friday at Michigan can show up this Friday at Iowa:
125: DH 6-3. 2 TDs, an Escape and a riding point to three escapes.
If Suriano didn’t take him down, Ayala’s not. but Ayala will force the action into two DH TDs.
133: RBY 8-3. Three TDs, an Escape and a riding point to three escapes.
141: NLee 6-3 Two TDs, an Escape and a riding point to three escapes.
149: BB1 3-1 SV. They trade escapes and BB1 gets the SV TD.
157: Young 4-1. TD, Escape, Riding point to an Escape.
165: BB2 3-1. TD and Escape to an Escape.
174: CStar 3-1 SV. See 149.
184: Brooks 20-5 TF. 6 TDs, an Escape, a 4pt NF and a 2-pt NF and Riding Time to 5 Escapes.
197: Dean 4-2. TD, Escape, Riding Point to Two Escapes
HWT: Kerk 10-4. 4 Tds, an Escape and a Riding Point to 4 Escapes.
29-3 Good Guys. If the same team that wrestled Michigan wrestles Iowa.
125: DH 6-3. 2 TDs, an Escape and a riding point to three escapes.
If Suriano didn’t take him down, Ayala’s not. but Ayala will force the action into two DH TDs.
133: RBY 8-3. Three TDs, an Escape and a riding point to three escapes.
141: NLee 6-3 Two TDs, an Escape and a riding point to three escapes.
149: BB1 3-1 SV. They trade escapes and BB1 gets the SV TD.
157: Young 4-1. TD, Escape, Riding point to an Escape.
165: BB2 3-1. TD and Escape to an Escape.
174: CStar 3-1 SV. See 149.
184: Brooks 20-5 TF. 6 TDs, an Escape, a 4pt NF and a 2-pt NF and Riding Time to 5 Escapes.
197: Dean 4-2. TD, Escape, Riding Point to Two Escapes
HWT: Kerk 10-4. 4 Tds, an Escape and a Riding Point to 4 Escapes.
29-3 Good Guys. If the same team that wrestled Michigan wrestles Iowa.
Last edited:
You fool. You failed to address the Berkson's paradox and collider basis in your analysis. Rerun the numbers correcting for this discrepancy and take mind to avoid Simpson's second paradox while you are at it.
PSU by 10
F... Math shit gives me a headache. Algorithms huh. Please start a ranking site lol
My first PSU meet was decided by a point deduction when the coach ran on the mat. I believe it was Michigan in late 99’s or very early 2000’s. But my memory might be hazy.
I wish I was as confident as a lot of you guys. So many toss ups. I’m just glad our current weak spot at 157 should be able to keep things to a decision and that we don’t start the meet automatically down 5 or 6.
If our guys come out like they did vs UM, I’m really liking our chances, but Iowa is going to come out blazing.
If our guys come out like they did vs UM, I’m really liking our chances, but Iowa is going to come out blazing.
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