ADVERTISEMENT

Lace up ‘em shoes, IT’S IOWA WEEK

Nothing arbitrary about my adjustments. I transformed the data using the natural log of its inverse, modeled it using a Bernoulli distribution, fitted a regression line, measured the r-squares and p-values and repeated the process on an interative basis until I minimized the sum of the squares of the residuals.
You need to incorporate a Fourier transform to model the likelihood of stalling calls & points.
 
  • Like
Reactions: diggerpup and mcpat
Time to move forward. All hands on deck.
@johnstownsteel , Mike Z is calling for you.

Keep it below the belt, fellas. Time for some f*n. 😉
Good luck this Friday fellas. I'm hoping for an Iowa blowout but we know that dog just aint huntin, so I'm realistically hoping the meet is still up for grabs when we get to Cass vs. Kerk. I do know one thing for sure, if we wrestle like we did against Ohio State we're going to get our asses kicked all over CHA in a manner similar to what happened to Mich last week. Hopefully it'll be a great dual and we'll all get our money's worth! :)
 
First off I absolutely love the confidence everyone is showing. I will always give credit where credit is due, Iowa is tough up and down the lineup. Going into Carver is no joke. Its a tough atmosphere to wrestle in the first time, and every time afterwards. There is definitely something to the "Carver Magic." I've seen quite a number of top guys take losses there. To put it in perspective, I don't think Mark Hall ever won there.

125 - Ayala has looked tough. Just took a loss to Heinselman, but I think that was the first wrestler who has been in on his legs so often which obviously kept him from getting to his offense. He has a great slide by which Drew will have to be aware of. I don't like this matchup for Drew considering Ayala's high number of attacks. While I'm not saying Drew can't defend those attacks, the stall calls could become a factor on their feet. With that being said, this is where it gets interesting. I don't think Ayala has faced someone that's as good on top as Drew. So which one prevails, Drew's mat wrestling, or Ayala's attacks? Its hard to pick against experience. 3-0 PSU

133 - DeSanto comes off of his vacation looking calm, cool, and collected. RBY doesn't go today, but there is no way he misses this match unless he's injured, or not allowed to go. RBY seems to have figured out what nobody else has and that is how to defend DeSanto's dump. Iowa fans will be calling for stalling from the get go when RBY puts his arm behind his back, we all know its coming. From where I sit, if someone wants to wrestle with one arm behind their back, that's not stalling. I think it takes some guts to wrestle someone with one arm behind your back. RBY has had his number since he started doing that, and until DeSanto proves otherwise, I don't think he has figured out what to do when he can't get to that tie. I think it'll be close as usual, but RBY gets the win. 6-0 PSU

141 - Eierman has had some extremely close matches this year. He hasn't looked quite as good as he did last year. That doesn't mean he's still not a very good wrestler. His top game is one of the best in the business and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Nick doesn't go under when its his choice. Another super close match that can go either way, but Nick defends his title. 9-0 PSU

149 - Murin is no doubt a grinder and wrestled Sasso tough. The key to victory here will be for BB to stop his shot and hit his counter like he did today. I know BB has wrestled all over the world in big matches. However, I'm not sure if he's experienced an atmosphere like this. Do I think he can beat Murin, yes. Do I think he will this time around, unfortunately not. Like I said, Murin is a tough wrestler, on his home mat, and that mat is in Carver. 9-3 PSU

157 - Young goes through spurts every year. He has matches where he looks good, and matches where he looks pretty rough. I think Negron gets the nod. Against someone who is streaky, we'll need someone who can score from their feet. Negron has been the only guy at this weight so far that has shown that. If Young has one of his bad matches, it could get interesting. However, Young has been around for a while and this will be the first time for our guy in Carver. Young hasn't put up a ton of points this year so I don't think we're in danger of giving up bonus here. 9-6 PSU

165 - I might be in the minority here, but I like the bull. He's a tough competitor and seems to be a stand up guy off the mat. His March woes are well documented, but his success outside of the tournament should be as well. I loved watching him and Joseph go at it since there always seemed to be a big exchange at some point in the match. His game plan is always the same, push his opponent all over the mat, and when he gets pressure back, post the arm and hit his shots. When he gets in, he usually finishes. Berge on the other hand has always been super hard to score on. Berge has done well with the ankle pics, but I think the bull is too strong for those. 9-9

174 - Before March, it would have been hard to pick CStar over Kem. I have seen Kem wrestle since his elementary days ( lets get this out of the way, yes that was a long time ago ). I've talked personally to Kem and he has always been super nice and humble. However, to beat a guy like CStar, you have to be 100%, and I'm not sure Kem's shoulder is there. Obviously it'll be a close match as Kem is still a top guy, but I think CStar has continued to improve. 12-9 PSU

184 - Assad has only wrestled 2 guys in the top ten this year and lost both. He wrestled Romero tough losing in SV, but Romero isn't Brooks. I would love to see Brooks push for a major, and he just might, but I'm not sure he gets it. I think it will be a comfortable win by 4-5. 15-9 PSU

197 - This will be Warner's first chance at a top ranked guy this year. I would like to say he looked less than impressive against Hoffman, but honestly that is just his style. He usually gets his takedown, then uses two thigh prys to ride and if his opponent gets to their feet, they're usually on the edge and out they go. Rinse and repeat. My problem here is Dean hasn't look quite right the last 3 matches. I think mat wrestling will decide this one and that plays right into where Dean wants to be. 18-9 PSU

285 - Cass hasn't quite looked as dominant this year as he did. He is still no doubt one of the best heavyweights in the nation. Kerk is coming off his best win against Parris, and looked in complete control the whole time. Is his game plan the same against Cass? Not sure. What I do know, is when these two met previously, Kerk had a hard time getting out from bottom. Kerk also wasn't healthy but that is no longer the case. I think he keeps his winning ways going. 21-9 PSU

This match is extremely hard to predict. There are about 100 different ways this thing could play out. I hope for everyone's sake, both teams are able to send out a full lineup. With full line ups, I feel it necessary to do this:

25 slight lean PSU
33 slight lean PSU
41 slight lean PSU
49 Iowa favorite
57 Iowa favorite
65 Iowa favorite
74 slight lean PSU
84 PSU favorite
97 slight lean PSU
285 slight lean PSU

If my predictions are correct, the team score will be no where near how close this match will actually be. I'm confident but also realize what Iowa can do.

We Are!
That's what I want as well my friend...both teams to send out their full lineup. And then let the fur and feathers fly and see what happens.

I think your projections are fair, though I don't think Kem's shoulder will prevent him from going pretty much all in for his match with Star. And as good as Star is (and I'm not taking anything away from the NCAA champ), I think Kem will figure out where he went wrong at NCAAS and avenge the loss. I'm hoping Kem, Ayala and ADS bring their A games so this will be competitive...otherwise things could get really ugly really fricking quick. And if we bring that sh*t we brought against Ohio State last Friday we'll feel the same pain Mich felt, but I don't see that happening. You guys coming to town makes it all different.

WRT Alex Marinelli, I too think he's a a stand up guy and his regular seasons and B10 tourneys have gone very well. However, this year he's been far less assertive than in the past. Not sure why but it sucks. He needs to score some big points against BB. And I know BB is no joke so I'm not saying it will happen, but the Bull went head to head with VJ who was a fricking badass so against lesser opponents he needs to start being THE guy.

I don't get to see Iowa wrestle very often, but when PSU is in town I try my best to be there because both teams seem to bring their best. Hopefully this Friday will not disappoint!
 
You fool. You failed to address the Berkson's paradox and collider basis in your analysis. Rerun the numbers correcting for this discrepancy and take mind to avoid Simpson's second paradox while you are at it.

PSU by 10
Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle will undoubtedly also impact the accuracy of your carefully calculated analysis of the chances of victory!
 
  • Like
Reactions: mcpat
midnight-staley-pain.gif
 
That's what I want as well my friend...both teams to send out their full lineup. And then let the fur and feathers fly and see what happens.

I think your projections are fair, though I don't think Kem's shoulder will prevent him from going pretty much all in for his match with Star. And as good as Star is (and I'm not taking anything away from the NCAA champ), I think Kem will figure out where he went wrong at NCAAS and avenge the loss. I'm hoping Kem, Ayala and ADS bring their A games so this will be competitive...otherwise things could get really ugly really fricking quick. And if we bring that sh*t we brought against Ohio State last Friday we'll feel the same pain Mich felt, but I don't see that happening. You guys coming to town makes it all different.

WRT Alex Marinelli, I too think he's a a stand up guy and his regular seasons and B10 tourneys have gone very well. However, this year he's been far less assertive than in the past. Not sure why but it sucks. He needs to score some big points against BB. And I know BB is no joke so I'm not saying it will happen, but the Bull went head to head with VJ who was a fricking badass so against lesser opponents he needs to start being THE guy.

I don't get to see Iowa wrestle very often, but when PSU is in town I try my best to be there because both teams seem to bring their best. Hopefully this Friday will not disappoint!
You make it hard to hate Iowa fans. You love your Hawkeyes, but don't feel the need to accuse Cael of cheating or go around pretending that wrestling was just invented when Gable left ISU. It should be one hell of a dual!
 
And nothing about how you start it ok it all by pointing him out to the mod. It was a dickish move we're not in ninth grade you don't need to run to the teacher

And nothing about how you start it ok it all by pointing him out to the mod. It was a dickish move we're not in ninth grade you don't need to run to the teacher
Yeah... nobody likes a snitch. Snitches get stitches
 
Jungle kitty said: “First off I absolutely love the confidence everyone is showing. I will always give credit where credit is due, Iowa is tough up and down the lineup. Going into Carver is no joke. Its a tough atmosphere to wrestle in the first time, and every time afterwards. There is definitely something to the "Carver Magic." I've seen quite a number of top guys take losses there. To put it in perspective, I don't think Mark Hall ever won there.”

Who in your lineup will be first timers in Carver? I have Hildebrandt, Bartlett, Barraclough, Starocci, Dean and Kirkvliet. Is that correct?
 
Jungle kitty said: “First off I absolutely love the confidence everyone is showing. I will always give credit where credit is due, Iowa is tough up and down the lineup. Going into Carver is no joke. Its a tough atmosphere to wrestle in the first time, and every time afterwards. There is definitely something to the "Carver Magic." I've seen quite a number of top guys take losses there. To put it in perspective, I don't think Mark Hall ever won there.”

Who in your lineup will be first timers in Carver? I have Hildebrandt, Bartlett, Barraclough, Starocci, Dean and Kirkvliet. Is that correct?
Bo begs to differ, LOL!

Didn’t Mark wrestle there twice? First time was his very first match of his career and second time was the Kem match. Yes he never won, but not a large sample size.
 
Thank you, Slush, for defending me on HR. I’m taking a beating over there for defending myself for posting - ON THIS BOARD - that it was interesting Iowa had an open date on Sunday before the Penn State dual.
 
  • Like
Reactions: slushhead
Thank you, Slush, for defending me on HR. I’m taking a beating over there for defending myself for posting - ON THIS BOARD - that it was interesting Iowa had an open date on Sunday before the Penn State dual.
I'd say it's exactly as interesting as PSU having an open date on Sunday before the OSU dual.
 
I'd say it's exactly as interesting as PSU having an open date on Sunday before the OSU dual.
Umm… Ohio State has nothing on the calendar this weekend.

Edit: Which is interesting.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jack66
Thank you, Slush, for defending me on HR. I’m taking a beating over there for defending myself for posting - ON THIS BOARD - that it was interesting Iowa had an open date on Sunday before the Penn State dual.
Some of those dudes are a curious bunch. You can try to give them a fair shake by walking a year in their shoes, but it may subsequently require a redshirt year to recover and get back on the mat, err, boards again. 😉
 
  • Like
Reactions: danoftw and mcpat
Jungle kitty said: “First off I absolutely love the confidence everyone is showing. I will always give credit where credit is due, Iowa is tough up and down the lineup. Going into Carver is no joke. Its a tough atmosphere to wrestle in the first time, and every time afterwards. There is definitely something to the "Carver Magic." I've seen quite a number of top guys take losses there. To put it in perspective, I don't think Mark Hall ever won there.”

Who in your lineup will be first timers in Carver? I have Hildebrandt, Bartlett, Barraclough, Starocci, Dean and Kirkvliet. Is that correct?
Yes, I do believe that is correct.
Bo begs to differ, LOL!

Didn’t Mark wrestle there twice? First time was his very first match of his career and second time was the Kem match. Yes he never won, but not a large sample size.
The only sample size needed is 1. Over half of our lineup will be competing in Carver for the first time. As I stated above "its a tough atmosphere to wrestle in the first time, and every time afterwards". I highly doubt any of the guys who will be there for the first time have ever experienced anything like Carver, and a few of them have wrestled on big stages not only here, but overseas. I wish there was a statistic, maybe someone can do some digging, but how many guys have wrestled there multiple times in duals and never won.

I see every match in the dual being close, except for maybe 2. I don't see Assad posing any threat to Brooks. The other bigger maybe is 157. We have no idea who we send out, my opinion is I think we see Negron, but BearClaw has been going, and apparently Gardner is back but maybe not certified so who knows. Depending which Young shows up, I'm not sure if Negron or BearClaw pose a threat to him. Do I think Berge beats Marinelli, no, but I think Berge can keep it within striking distance due to his defense, same goes with Murin and Bartlett.

Other than those call it three weights, it's seven close matches. Seven matches where I can see either guy getting their hand raised at the end. My prediction has Iowa only winning 3 matches 49,57,65. But the match can get just as out of hand in Iowas favor as well.

I am super excited for Friday. With all the toss ups and wondering who will be at a few weights (hearing there's a chance Ayala doesn't go, but I don't believe it for a second), we may be able to dawn this the dual of the decade regardless of final team score. Batten down the hatches!

We Are!
 
That's what I want as well my friend...both teams to send out their full lineup. And then let the fur and feathers fly and see what happens.

I think your projections are fair, though I don't think Kem's shoulder will prevent him from going pretty much all in for his match with Star. And as good as Star is (and I'm not taking anything away from the NCAA champ), I think Kem will figure out where he went wrong at NCAAS and avenge the loss. I'm hoping Kem, Ayala and ADS bring their A games so this will be competitive...otherwise things could get really ugly really fricking quick. And if we bring that sh*t we brought against Ohio State last Friday we'll feel the same pain Mich felt, but I don't see that happening. You guys coming to town makes it all different.

WRT Alex Marinelli, I too think he's a a stand up guy and his regular seasons and B10 tourneys have gone very well. However, this year he's been far less assertive than in the past. Not sure why but it sucks. He needs to score some big points against BB. And I know BB is no joke so I'm not saying it will happen, but the Bull went head to head with VJ who was a fricking badass so against lesser opponents he needs to start being THE guy.

I don't get to see Iowa wrestle very often, but when PSU is in town I try my best to be there because both teams seem to bring their best. Hopefully this Friday will not disappoint!
Well said. I'm hoping next year this dual happens in the BJC. If it does and you are in town for it, send me a message and we'll grab a beer.
 
If Drake Ayala is in question, any chance Brands starts the dual at a different weight to see if they really need Drake.
 
  • Like
Reactions: crablegs1
I
Some of those dudes are a curious bunch. You can try to give them a fair shake by walking a year in their shoes, but it may subsequently require a redshirt year to recover and get back on the mat, err, boards again. 😉
M still waiting on the answer to your question over there. The one about who is more exciting to watch than PSU lol. Those people are off the hook
 
  • Like
Reactions: slushhead
Interesting that Iowa only had one meet this weekend.
This is the post that caused the conversation (being generous here) over on HR. Should have never happened from such an innocuous thought, but it did. Here's a few thoughts, many were cited on HR, but with the delivery lacking.

-- The B1G Conference schedules all B1G Duals
-- Competition Dates are limited to 16, by NCAA rule
-- Iowa has 16 (a couple were cancelled later due to Covid, but they did start with 16)
-- PSU has 14 Competition Date this season
-- Since the New Year, PSU had or will have; 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0, 1 duals each weekend
-- Since the New Year, IA had or will have; 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 duals each weekend
-- Non-conf. schedules are planned somewhat with March peaking in mind

I am sure your post was taken way out of context. HR had the whole conversation twisted into a pretzel, which they do to their own too. No biggie. Just leave, don't let them drag you into the gutter.
 
Yes, I do believe that is correct.

The only sample size needed is 1. Over half of our lineup will be competing in Carver for the first time. As I stated above "its a tough atmosphere to wrestle in the first time, and every time afterwards". I highly doubt any of the guys who will be there for the first time have ever experienced anything like Carver, and a few of them have wrestled on big stages not only here, but overseas. I wish there was a statistic, maybe someone can do some digging, but how many guys have wrestled there multiple times in duals and never won.

I see every match in the dual being close, except for maybe 2. I don't see Assad posing any threat to Brooks. The other bigger maybe is 157. We have no idea who we send out, my opinion is I think we see Negron, but BearClaw has been going, and apparently Gardner is back but maybe not certified so who knows. Depending which Young shows up, I'm not sure if Negron or BearClaw pose a threat to him. Do I think Berge beats Marinelli, no, but I think Berge can keep it within striking distance due to his defense, same goes with Murin and Bartlett.

Other than those call it three weights, it's seven close matches. Seven matches where I can see either guy getting their hand raised at the end. My prediction has Iowa only winning 3 matches 49,57,65. But the match can get just as out of hand in Iowas favor as well.

I am super excited for Friday. With all the toss ups and wondering who will be at a few weights (hearing there's a chance Ayala doesn't go, but I don't believe it for a second), we may be able to dawn this the dual of the decade regardless of final team score. Batten down the hatches!

We Are!
Carvers atmosphere has the ability to drain athletes energy by causing over excitement before and during matches in my opinion. This goes for athletes of both teams, adrenalin is a funny thing. I think that is what happened to Mark Hall against Grandpa Mike. He was very excited on the sidelines for his teammates before his match. Also the crowd is intense and loud. This can mess with mental focus. Its a great experience no doubt.
 
Carvers atmosphere has the ability to drain athletes energy by causing over excitement before and during matches in my opinion. This goes for athletes of both teams, adrenalin is a funny thing. I think that is what happened to Mark Hall against Grandpa Mike. He was very excited on the sidelines for his teammates before his match. Also the crowd is intense and loud. This can mess with mental focus. Its a great experience no doubt.
I remember Mark saying as much.
 
Also keep in mind guys, we were underdogs the last 3 matches of that dual. Brooks just got beat pretty handily by Venz and Assad beat Venz. Hindsight 20-20 (transitive property shouldn't be applied in wrestling obviously) but that was before AB became the AB we know today and at Carver, it wasn't a stretch to call Assad the favorite. Shak was banged up and Warner definitely was the favorite. Cass was a sizeable favorite over Seth also. I think Mark wanted a pin because that basically puts the match away if our last 3 guys can even hold it to a decision loss.
 
Well said. I'm hoping next year this dual happens in the BJC. If it does and you are in town for it, send me a message and we'll grab a beer.
If the Big10 mandates Iowa to travel to State College, Cael will host the birds at BJC.
 
IM still waiting on the answer to your question over there. The one about who is more exciting to watch than PSU lol. Those people are off the hook
Nelson Brands is pretty exciting. There is always the possibility of blood and guts, whether through chewing or scratching.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: diggerpup
Anything more to the crablegs report on Ayala? Seems like he’s the only one that has said anything about it. It’d be a shame to not see that match.
 
My one quibble — Don’t leave before you’ve been called a “douche” (or some form thereof). Otherwise, they’ve completely had their way with you. 😉
TBH @mcpat you have been treated fairly well so far. Only after you receive your first "sandusky" can you apply for a promotion.

Being twisted into a pretzel by inferior logic and reasoning is just part of the training.
 
TBH @mcpat you have been treated fairly well so far. Only after you receive your first "sandusky" can you apply for a promotion.

Being twisted into a pretzel by inferior logic and reasoning is just part of the training.
It's the part where I'm being called out for things they read but that I didn't actual write or even insinuate that was driving me nuts. This is why I read but didn't post for years. I guess that's the internet though.

edit: this is what I learned while offering myself to be bludgeoned:

1) Iowa has no control over their schedule, even non-conference (no wonder they refuse to shake hands; they didn't want to wrestle their opponents to begin with).
2) Things they engage with you on for two days are not interesting to them.
3) Every factual observation is in some way a dig at Iowa.
4) They tell you to leave, then ask you to stay only so they can tell you to leave again (I fell for this once, but not the second time).
5) They throw out the B word quickly.
6) Their reading comprehension is very poor. (I thought Iowa was a "public ivy"?)
 
Last edited:
  • Haha
Reactions: HawkFan1986
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT