March Madness Bracket Talk

[ryoder1]

Okay who does everyone have as upset specials? What 13 beats a 4 or 12 beats a 5 or 11 beats 6 or other upsets??? Who ya got in the Final Four and winning it?

I have Charlotte as a 12 over 5 San Diego St. Also have Furman as a 13 over 4 UVA but may change that. For some reason thinking the Gauchos UC Santa Barbara as a 14 could knock off 3 seed Baylor I think 11 Providence beats 6 Kentucky. Drake #12 beats 5 Miami.

Does PSU have a shot at Houston?? I have us beating A&M then bowing out vs the Longhorns. Maybe I should switch that???

My Final 4 as of now.....Bama, Purdue, Texas, UCLA.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Does PSU have a shot at Houston?? I have us beating A&M then bowing out vs the Longhorns. Maybe I should switch that???

My Final 4 as of now.....Bama, Purdue, Texas, UCLA.

honestly if psu gets past the first two games they could go to the final 4

the top half of the bracket is not that scary other than houston

 

[ryoder1]

honestly if psu gets past the first two games they could go to the final 4

the top half of the bracket is not that scary other than houston

Agree, if we beat Texas then watch out. Xavier, Indiana. Miami, Houston none scare me. UT is the cream of the crop in the regional.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Agree, if we beat Texas then watch out. Xavier, Indiana. Miami, Houston none scare me. UT is the cream of the crop in the regional.

also i am not sure xavier will still be there in the 3rd round

but whoever comes out of the bottom half of that bracket has a real path to the final 4

 

[LeatherHelmets]

Okay who does everyone have as upset specials? What 13 beats a 4 or 12 beats a 5 or 11 beats 6 or other upsets??? Who ya got in the Final Four and winning it?

I have Charlotte as a 12 over 5 San Diego St. Also have Furman as a 13 over 4 UVA but may change that. For some reason thinking the Gauchos UC Santa Barbara as a 14 could knock off 3 seed Baylor I think 11 Providence beats 6 Kentucky. Drake #12 beats 5 Miami.

Does PSU have a shot at Houston?? I have us beating A&M then bowing out vs the Longhorns. Maybe I should switch that???

My Final 4 as of now.....Bama, Purdue, Texas, UCLA.

Charlotte? You mean Charleston. I like Charleston too. Furman is good but UVA's defense will wear them down. I'm with you on PSU over A&M then losing to the Aggies, who I have going to the final 4.

 

[ryoder1]

Agree, if we beat Texas then watch out. Xavier, Indiana. Miami, Houston none scare me. UT is the cream of the crop in the regional.

Gotta get by the Aggies first!!

 

[ryoder1]

Charlotte? You mean Charleston. I like Charleston too. Furman is good but UVA's defense will wear them down. I'm with you on PSU over A&M then losing to the Aggies, who I have going to the final 4.

Yes Charleston.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Here are my quick tips for putting together a +EV (positive expected value) bracket in an NCAA pool (some might seem obvious)…

• Understand how many people will be in the pool…this should determine how much “chalk” you’re taking, vs how many chances to take. The million dollar DraftKings pool will have 15k entries (and a payout structure that is very top-heavy), so you’ll have better chances taking teams that few others will take vs their expectations…which leads to…
• Pay attention to how many people are taking certain teams to win (or reach the final four) vs their expectation. For expectations, check out Ken Pomeroy, 538, Bart Torvik, etc. To see how often teams are selected, check out ESPN’s contest where they break it out for you. I like Alabama a lot, but way more people are selecting them than their actual expected chance of winning. When others zig, you should zag.
• Pay close attention to the scoring system…if it rewards upsets or high seeds, look for upsets. If it’s straight points based, no reason to go crazy on the upsets unless it’s a huge pool.
• Pay attention to geography (or favorite schools) of others in the pool…PSU friend running it and I’ll pick against us. Upstate NY pool I’ll always fade Syracuse, in my Connecticut pool, I’ll pick UConn to lose earlier, etc…really all goes back to ziging as others zag.

And most importantly, combine those factors to give yourself the best chances. A pool with 500 people and no upset points with scoring of 1/2/4/8/16/32…I might go relatively chalk but find someone like a Kansas St, Tennesse, that’s undervalued and have them winning. A pool with 25 people, and I’d be way more chalky. 5k people, and I’m pairing a Tennessee with another non-top team in the title game.

 

[johnmpsu]

Furman just beat VA 68-67.

 

[Obliviax]

Okay who does everyone have as upset specials? What 13 beats a 4 or 12 beats a 5 or 11 beats 6 or other upsets??? Who ya got in the Final Four and winning it?

I have Charlotte as a 12 over 5 San Diego St. Also have Furman as a 13 over 4 UVA but may change that. For some reason thinking the Gauchos UC Santa Barbara as a 14 could knock off 3 seed Baylor I think 11 Providence beats 6 Kentucky. Drake #12 beats 5 Miami.

Does PSU have a shot at Houston?? I have us beating A&M then bowing out vs the Longhorns. Maybe I should switch that???

My Final 4 as of now.....Bama, Purdue, Texas, UCLA.

UVA is a stone cold LOCK.

 

[ryoder1]

I kept my Furman pick!