More Stats -- PSU & tOSU

[RoarLions1]

Qualifiers
PSU - 9
tOSU - 10
Every wrestler scored, so "Number of Scoring Wrestlers" is the same

All- Americans
PSU - 8 (1,1,1,1,2,5,7,7)
tOSU - 8 (1,2,3,3,4,4,5,6)

Number of Wrestlers at or ABOVE SEED (only top-8 Seeds Considered)
PSU - 6 of 8
tOSU - 5 of 9

Bonus Points
PSU - 23.5
tOSU - 24

Placement Points
PSU - 91
tOSU - 79

Expected Placement Points (By Seed)
PSU - 84
tOSU - 92

Advancement Points
PSU - 28
tOSU - 31.5

Bout Record (Overall)
PSU - 39-9 (81%)
tOSU - 40-16 (71%)

Bout Record (By Round)
PSU
1st: 7-2
2nd: 9-0
3rd: 7-3
4th: 9-2
5th: 3-1
6th: 4-1
tOSU
1st: 10-0
2nd: 9-1
3rd: 7-4
4th: 6-5
5th: 7-5
6th: 1-1

 

[nerfstate]

Truly a battle for the ages. I enjoy mocking Tom Ryan, but this year was a banner year for our favorite sport, and he played the perfect yin to Cael's yang. As already stated here, victory tastes sweeter when the struggle is real.

 

[tomsc]

Interesting stats, Roar! A couple of things stood out to me. Although tOSU got .5 bonus point more than we did, they got 4 bonus by mfft/inj def (B Jordan and Tomasello); we didn't get any gift bonus. So, I feel we essentially won the bonus point battle--even if it felt like we didn't get as much bonus as expected. Both teams did well in getting more than 50% placing greater or equal to seed. But we placed 7 points higher than seeds and tOSU placed 12 points lower than seed. All-in-all a tremendous effort!!

 

[LemonPie]

To be fair, Nato was probably on his way to a TF against Milhoff. Maybe Milhoff was badly hurt, but Nato earned at least 1 of those 2 extra points.

 

[nerfstate]

I stayed pretty upbeat through most of the early PSU "woes" in the tourney--but when BoJo got that MFF for 5th, I'm not gonna lie, I saw the hope fading quickly. For that reason, I am super upbeat about Rasheed, grinding out a major (yeah, and Conel's owning of Moore a 2nd time was nice too).

 

[tomsc]

To be fair, Nato was probably on his way to a TF against Milhoff. Maybe Milhoff was badly hurt, but Nato earned at least 1 of those 2 extra points.

Agree, and was thinking that. But, we still would have out-bonused tOSU if there had been no gift points. Not a big deal, by any means. I was just feeling like we weren't getting as many bonus as I was expecting, but we still would have out-bonused tOSU except for the gift points. Just any interesting observation in that context.

 

[LemonPie]

Agree, and was thinking that. But, we still would have out-bonused tOSU if there had been no gift points. Not a big deal, by any means. I was just feeling like we weren't getting as many bonus as I was expecting, but we still would have out-bonused tOSU except for the gift points. Just any interesting observation in that context.

You're correct. Felt PSU underperformed and tOSU overperformed. If you gave me the individual placements before telling me the team score, I would have thought PSU won by 20.

Still nice to know they didn't lose ground

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Lee/Keener: 12
Pletcher/Hayes/Campbell: 16

 

[tikk10]

You're correct. Felt PSU underperformed and tOSU overperformed. If you gave me the individual placements before telling me the team score, I would have thought PSU won by 20.

Still nice to know they didn't lose ground

And throw in that tOSU were gifted at least 6 bonus points from injury defaults and MFFs, points they'd have been unlikely to get had those matches been wrestled.

 

[PSUer1989]

Interesting stats, Roar! A couple of things stood out to me. Although tOSU got .5 bonus point more than we did, they got 4 bonus by mfft/inj def (B Jordan and Tomasello); we didn't get any gift bonus. So, I feel we essentially won the bonus point battle--even if it felt like we didn't get as much bonus as expected. Both teams did well in getting more than 50% placing greater or equal to seed. But we placed 7 points higher than seeds and tOSU placed 12 points lower than seed. All-in-all a tremendous effort!!

So, is tOSU placing 12 lower than seeds pretty clear indication that having a coach on the seeding committee helped inflate their seeds? Or an indication that they were guys not as prepared for NCAAs as they should have been? Either way, I would like to hear Ryan’s spin on that one. Not how we would have done it...

 

[RoarLions1]

So, is tOSU placing 12 lower than seeds pretty clear indication that having a coach on the seeding committee helped inflate their seeds? Or an indication that they were guys not as prepared for NCAAs as they should have been? Either way, I would like to hear Ryan’s spin on that one. Not how we would have done it...

Which tOSU wrestler's seed do you believe was influenced by Ryan?

 

[PSUer1989]

Which tOSU wrestler's seed do you believe was influenced by Ryan?

I don’t know if any were, that’s why I asked. I was very surprised Campbell was seeded at all at 165, and I thought BoJo and Hayes were seeded a little higher than I would have expected (a spot or two). However, I don’t know the whole field so I could be wrong.

 

[Ja1339]

Qualifiers
PSU - 9
tOSU - 10
Every wrestler scored, so "Number of Scoring Wrestlers" is the same

All- Americans
PSU - 8 (1,1,1,1,2,5,7,7)
tOSU - 8 (1,2,3,3,4,4,5,6)

Number of Wrestlers at or ABOVE SEED (only top-8 Seeds Considered)
PSU - 6 of 8
tOSU - 5 of 9

Bonus Points
PSU - 23.5
tOSU - 24

Placement Points
PSU - 91
tOSU - 79

Expected Placement Points (By Seed)
PSU - 84
tOSU - 91

Advancement Points
PSU - 28
tOSU - 31.5

Bout Record (Overall)
PSU - 39-9 (81%)
tOSU - 40-16 (71%)

Bout Record (By Round)
PSU
1st: 7-2
2nd: 9-0
3rd: 7-3
4th: 9-2
5th: 3-1
6th: 4-1
tOSU
1st: 10-0
2nd: 9-1
3rd: 7-4
4th: 6-5
5th: 7-5
6th: 1-1

And my two favorite stats:

Number of national champs tOSU: 1
Number of national champs PSU: 4

Number of team championships in last 8 years
tOSU: 1
PSU: 7

That's what we do (Bo drops Mic)

 

[a_mshaffer]

I was under the mindset that it was coming down to the finals head to head contest.... Bo knew!

 

[Dogwelder]

... I enjoy mocking Tom Ryan, ... and he played the perfect yin to Cael's yang ...

Loudmouth Ryan has to be yang, and the subtle Sanderson the yin.

 

[RoarLions1]

I don’t know if any were, that’s why I asked. I was very surprised Campbell was seeded at all at 165, and I thought BoJo and Hayes were seeded a little higher than I would have expected (a spot or two). However, I don’t know the whole field so I could be wrong.

The only guys in their line-up whose seed did not match the Coaches Ranking are Hayes (Ranked 4, Seeded 5), and Moore (Ranked 2, Seeded 1). Nothing here.

 

[Ja1339]

The only guys in their line-up whose seed did not match the Coaches Ranking are Hayes (Ranked 4, Seeded 5), and Moore (Ranked 2, Seeded 1). Nothing here.

I thought Kemdogs seeding was a head scratcher. Did that seem fishy to you Roar?

 

[RoarLions1]

I thought Kemdogs seeding was a head scratcher. Did that seem fishy to you Roar?

Sure, though my angst was pretty low. Dealing with an injured wrestler, and trying to seed them will always contain a high level of guesswork.

 

[dunkej01]

this stat sucks and isnt good

 

[nerfstate]

this stat sucks and isnt good

View embedded media

Dang man, don't you know dropping truth bombs ala Bo is now considered classless? That said, I wonder what the average ratings discrepancy between ESPN and ESPN2 is? Kind of a chicken/egg situation if you ask me....

 

[Cowbell Man]

I have to ask. What were our woes in the early rounds? 1 surprise loss and one according to seed.

I’ve seen too many nationals to know a loss in the first round is not the kiss of death for a qualified wrestler. It’s harder, sure....but it certainly wasn’t woes or depressing. Fighters fight Back. Some win 9 matches on the backside and seal a tournament victory.

In fact, I was more hopeful he would wreck the backside. And while it wasn’t utter destruction, several guys went home earlier than planned. I love the backside.

OSU failed in the backside. They lost lost the tourney there.

 

[Dogwelder]

... I love the backside ...

<insert joke here>

 

[eddy line]

The only guys in their line-up whose seed did not match the Coaches Ranking are Hayes (Ranked 4, Seeded 5), and Moore (Ranked 2, Seeded 1). Nothing here.

I don't know if Ryan was successful, but it's not unreasonable to think that he tried to help his guys, at least on the margin. I'd think less of him if he didn't.

Maybe it's a coincidence, but Brian Smith is on the seeding committee too, and Missouri seemed to be over-seeded.

 

[nerfstate]

I have to ask. What were our woes in the early rounds? 1 surprise loss and one according to seed.

I’ve seen too many nationals to know a loss in the first round is not the kiss of death for a qualified wrestler. It’s harder, sure....but it certainly wasn’t woes or depressing. Fighters fight Back. Some win 9 matches on the backside and seal a tournament victory.

In fact, I was more hopeful he would wreck the backside. And while it wasn’t utter destruction, several guys went home earlier than planned. I love the backside.

OSU failed in the backside. They lost lost the tourney there.

I put it in quotes for a reason.

Edit: if you want more details--I saw a lot of negativity on this board after day 1. It had more to do with the opposition's success than anything else, though starting the tourney with back to back falls is not exactly how we would have preferred to do it, right? That said, I was pretty optimistic up until BoJo's gift during the medal round, when I worried the deck was getting stacked against us. My pessimism stemming from the popular and half-right belief that Cenzo and Hall both had pretty tough rows to hoe.

 

[RoarLions1]

I have to ask. What were our woes in the early rounds? 1 surprise loss and one according to seed.

I’ve seen too many nationals to know a loss in the first round is not the kiss of death for a qualified wrestler. It’s harder, sure....but it certainly wasn’t woes or depressing. Fighters fight Back. Some win 9 matches on the backside and seal a tournament victory.

In fact, I was more hopeful he would wreck the backside. And while it wasn’t utter destruction, several guys went home earlier than planned. I love the backside.

OSU failed in the backside. They lost lost the tourney there.

tOSU was 28-9 in Championships, 12-7 in Wrestle-backs.
PSU was 28-5 in Championships, 11-4 in Wrestle-backs.

 

[RoarLions1]

I don't know if Ryan was successful, but it's not unreasonable to think that he tried to help his guys, at least on the margin. I'd think less of him if he didn't.

Maybe it's a coincidence, but Brian Smith is on the seeding committee too, and Missouri seemed to be over-seeded.

Overseeded?

Of Missouri's 7 seeded wrestlers, only 2 didn't match the coaches ranking; #3 Lavallee was seeded #2 (when they nudged Jason down 1), and #17 Marriott was seeded #15 (no big deal, imo).

 

[RoarLions1]

More data...

There are an equal number of matches in the Championship, and the Wrestle-back Barckets, 320 each.

At the 2018 NCAA Championships;
-- There were 137 upsets, based on seed (or 21% of bouts)
-- 57 of those upsets were in the Championship Bracket (or 18%)
-- 80 of those upsets were in the Wrestle-back Bracket (or 25%)
(Note: Where both wrestlers are unseeded, I do not consider upsets. This amounts to about 10 matches per weight class, or 100 total matches. In theory, almost all (except the 1 pigtail) will be in wrestle-backs). Removing them, and the Wrestle-back upset rate is 36%.

-- 174 had the fewest number of upsets in the Championship Bracket, 1
-- 197 had the most number of upsets in the Championship Bracket, 10
-- 157 & 184 had the most number of upsets in Wrestle-backs, 10 each
-- 141 & 285 had the fewest number of upsets in Wrestle-backs, 6 each
-- 197 had the most total number of upsets, 18
-- 174 had the fewest total number of upsets, 10

 

[GhostK]

Bo vs Myles: 7-2

Yet people are still convinced Myles has Bo's number...

 

[eddy line]

Overseeded?

Of Missouri's 7 seeded wrestlers, only 2 didn't match the coaches ranking; #3 Lavallee was seeded #2 (when they nudged Jason down 1), and #17 Marriott was seeded #15 (no big deal, imo).

None of the 7 wrestled to seed:
133: Emeste was a 5 seed. Didn't place.
141: Eierman was a 2. Finished 4th.
149: Leeth was a 3. Finished 6th.
157: Lavallee was a 2. Didn't place.
174: Lewis was a 3. Finished 4th.
184: Marriott was a 15. Finished 1-2 & didn't place.
197: Miklus was a 6. Finished 8th.

 

[PSUcup1]

this stat sucks and isnt good

View embedded media

it was on ESPN2 ... isnt usually on ESPN?

 

[LDandy]

Bout Record (By Round)
PSU 1st: 7-2
2nd: 9-0
3rd: 7-3
4th: 9-2
5th: 3-1
6th: 4-1
tOSU
1st: 10-0
2nd: 9-1
3rd: 7-4
4th: 6-5
5th: 7-5
6th: 1-1

What I highlighted in bold is the key difference between the two programs. Especially as it pertains to performing on the biggest stage. When it comes to winning time which program do you have faith in to deliver? I know which program I'm taking and it ain't even close.

 

[matter7172]

None of the 7 wrestled to seed:
133: Emeste was a 5 seed. Didn't place.
141: Eierman was a 2. Finished 4th.
149: Leeth was a 3. Finished 6th.
157: Lavallee was a 2. Didn't place.
174: Lewis was a 3. Finished 4th.
184: Marriott was a 15. Finished 1-2 & didn't place.
197: Miklus was a 6. Finished 8th.

I always think of Missouri and Michigan as notorious underachievers at Nationals. Michigan surprised me this year - both a B1Gs and Nationals. They were much better than in past years. Did they know their coach was retiring?

 

[Ian]

Day 1, full field O$U 19-1, PSU 16-2
Day 2, half a field PSU 16-5, O$U 13-9
Day 3, medals rd PSU 7-2, O$U 8-6

Enough said. The creme always rises to the top and you can see it as the quality of wrestlers improved.

 

[RoarLions1]

I don't know if Ryan was successful, but it's not unreasonable to think that he tried to help his guys, at least on the margin. I'd think less of him if he didn't.

Maybe it's a coincidence, but Brian Smith is on the seeding committee too, and Missouri seemed to be over-seeded.

None of the 7 wrestled to seed:
133: Emeste was a 5 seed. Didn't place.
141: Eierman was a 2. Finished 4th.
149: Leeth was a 3. Finished 6th.
157: Lavallee was a 2. Didn't place.
174: Lewis was a 3. Finished 4th.
184: Marriott was a 15. Finished 1-2 & didn't place.
197: Miklus was a 6. Finished 8th.

That's different. You said Missouri seemed to be over-seeded, which is body-of-work during the season.

From every shred of information I have, they were not over-seeded, or under-seeded, in other words, seeded correctly. Brian Smith had one of 8 votes, and only at 141 and 149, to affect the Coaches Ranking. That's all he had, nothing more.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

<insert joke here>

[Insert pic here.]

FIFY.

 

[tabenn]

Interesting stats, Roar! A couple of things stood out to me. Although tOSU got .5 bonus point more than we did, they got 4 bonus by mfft/inj def (B Jordan and Tomasello); we didn't get any gift bonus. So, I feel we essentially won the bonus point battle--even if it felt like we didn't get as much bonus as expected. Both teams did well in getting more than 50% placing greater or equal to seed. But we placed 7 points higher than seeds and tOSU placed 12 points lower than seed. All-in-all a tremendous effort!!

I see your point and the math proves it---by man the 1st 2 rounds it did not seem we were winning the BP battle--OSU was just racking it up!--I love a close race! no doubt kept me in my seat

 

[seeyajohn]

Bout Record (By Round)
PSU 1st: 7-2
2nd: 9-0
3rd: 7-3
4th: 9-2
5th: 3-1
6th: 4-1
tOSU
1st: 10-0
2nd: 9-1
3rd: 7-4
4th: 6-5
5th: 7-5
6th: 1-1

What I highlighted in bold is the key difference between the two programs. Especially as it pertains to performing on the biggest stage. When it comes to winning time which program do you have faith in to deliver? I know which program I'm taking and it ain't even close.

Without reviewing each match, my guess would be that our superior performance in the last three rounds was more a matter of the favored wrestler winning than of clutch performance overcoming odds.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

I see your point and the math proves it---by man the 1st 2 rounds it did not seem we were winning the BP battle--OSU was just racking it up!--I love a close race! no doubt kept me in my seat

Sunday morning at breakfast, a Texan was sitting beside Dad and me. He asked us, "As Penn State fans, do you prefer a close win like this or a blowout." My response was, "I'll take them any way I can get them." My Dad said, "Well, I'm a little older than he is, so I might prefer a little more breathing room."

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Which tOSU wrestler's seed do you believe was influenced by Ryan?

Don't know whether Ryan influenced it, but Micah Jordan had a near dream draw for a #7 seed. McKenna also had a very nice path as a #4.

Regardless, the mere presence of Ryan (or any coach) on the seeding committe is bad perception-wise, and doesn't make any sense. Just my 2 cents.

 

[RoarLions1]

Don't know whether Ryan influenced it, but Micah Jordan had a near dream draw for a #7 seed. McKenna also had a very nice path as a #4.

Regardless, the mere presence of Ryan (or any coach) on the seeding committe is bad perception-wise, and doesn't make any sense. Just my 2 cents.

I agree, but am torn. There's 3 coaches on the Wrestling Committee, and I trust them far more than a hundred administrators to handle the details of seeding. I've looked at the seeds, and for the most part they followed the Coaches Ranking, which is a composite vote from 8 coaches, one from each conference, and different schools handing different weight classes. Looks pretty solid to me, but then I dig deeper than most. Perception is real, but I still like having coaches involved.