NCAA betting odds....

[dunkej01]

125 is out...those saying they would take SLee all day, you now have your chance
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sport...etting/ncaa-wrestling-125lbs-championship.sbk

Flo article on this...
https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6143972-official-2018-ncaa-vegas-odds

or

take PSU to win it all
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/boxing-+-mma-betting/ncaa-wrestling-matchups.sbk

 

[PSU Mike]

125 is out...those saying they would take SLee all day, you now have your chance
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sport...etting/ncaa-wrestling-125lbs-championship.sbk

Flo article on this...
https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6143972-official-2018-ncaa-vegas-odds

or

take PSU to win it all
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/boxing-+-mma-betting/ncaa-wrestling-matchups.sbk

Pretty close to coin flip for team ...

 

[dunkej01]

just in case you dont know whats up with money line but want to know how much you stand to win when you bet the house on the lions!

https://www.gamblingsites.org/sports-betting/beginners-guide/odds/moneyline/

 

[MDAlum]

So Zain is at -700 and Bo is at -550. The two heaviest favorites in the field.

 

[not so fast my friend]

So Zain is at -700 and Bo is at -550. The two heaviest favorites in the field.

Heil is +550! Pretty funny for a defending chump, i mean champ!

 

[El-Jefe]

So Zain is at -700 and Bo is at -550. The two heaviest favorites in the field.

When your betting line mirrors your average margin of victory ...

 

[tylersmyth]

Heil is +550! Pretty funny for a defending chump, i mean champ!

That would actually be a 2x defending chump, is he the first one ever? I've never heard of a 2x defending chump that had a 50 plus win streak before and finished 4th as a freshman. Learn something new everyday i guess.

 

[dunkej01]

That would actually be a 2x defending chump, is he the first one ever? I've never heard of a 2x defending chump that had a 50 plus win streak before and finished 4th as a freshman. Learn something new everyday i guess.

I really like this bet. Im going to sleep on it but I may just bet on heil, could pay my bar tab this week.

 

[tylersmyth]

I really like this bet. Im going to sleep on it but I may just bet on heil, could pay my bar tab this week.

The last two years i've picked someone other than Heil to win 141 and been wrong. Last year i picked Jack, the year before i don't even remember. This year i picked Yianni D, that's a good thing for your bet. lol

 

[Tom McAndrew]

could pay my bar tab this week.

reports are you'd need to hit on more than just that bet to pay for your bar tab.

 

[burnsie1983]

I'm not a betting man, but I think the Mizzou/PSU matchup could be a pretty safe . Line is PSU -46.5 currently. Their lines are inconsistent, too. PSU gives 46.5 to Mizzou, and 59.5 to Michigan, but the line is only Mizzou -7.5 vs Michigan. I personally think Michigan outscores Mizzou straight up.

 

[jammenz]

I would take the field at 125, 141, and 165, but Sportsbook wisely does not offer it.

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

125 is out...those saying they would take SLee all day, you now have your chance
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sport...etting/ncaa-wrestling-125lbs-championship.sbk

Flo article on this...
https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6143972-official-2018-ncaa-vegas-odds

or

take PSU to win it all
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/boxing-+-mma-betting/ncaa-wrestling-matchups.sbk

Thanks for sharing. Since UFF has a probabilistic wrestling model that is probably more accurate than the sportsbook's spreadsheet model, UFF thought he should provide a public service announcement of where the juice can be found. If you score big off your wagers, you can supply UFF with a session pass to next year's quarterfinals/semifinals.*

Listed in order are the biggest delta's between the model and the book (matchup, point delta, who you should pick). It is generally less risky to bet on the teams expected to score higher because the law of large numbers will apply. Teams with a few highly seeded wrestlers but not many qualifiers will have more variance in projected scores.

PSU scores based on a healthy Nolf. OSU scores based on Pletcher wrestling more like a 5th seed.

PSU - OSU +25 PSU
OSU - Mizz +17 Mizz
Mizz - NCSt +17 Mizz
NCSt - Iowa +15 Iowa
OSU - Mich +14 Mich
OSU - Iowa +14 Iowa
NCSt - Lehigh +13 Lehigh
OSU - Lehigh +12 Lehigh
OkSt - VT +11 VT
Iowa - OkSt +10 Iowa
PSU - Mich +10 PSU
PSU - Mizz +9 PSU
PSU - Iowa +9 PSU
Mizz - Mich +8 Mizz

* You should never wager money you can't afford to lose using advice from a complete stranger, unless it is for the trifecta of Mr. Willy, White Lightning, and Pocono Joe in the seventh race.

 

[PSUbluTX]

... a probabilistic wrestling model that is probably more accurate .....
... where the juice can be found...
...If you score big ...
...It is generally less risky ....

WEASEL words! Dang it, UFF, we expect guaranteed results on this board. Pull your weight man!

 

[dunkej01]

Thanks for sharing. Since UFF has a probabilistic wrestling model that is probably more accurate than the sportsbook's spreadsheet model, UFF thought he should provide a public service announcement of where the juice can be found. If you score big off your wagers, you can supply UFF with a session pass to next year's quarterfinals/semifinals.*

Listed in order are the biggest delta's between the model and the book (matchup, point delta, who you should pick). It is generally less risky to bet on the teams expected to score higher because the law of large numbers will apply. Teams with a few highly seeded wrestlers but not many qualifiers will have more variance in projected scores.

PSU scores based on a healthy Nolf. OSU scores based on Pletcher wrestling more like a 5th seed.

PSU - OSU +25 PSU
OSU - Mizz +17 Mizz
Mizz - NCSt +17 Mizz
NCSt - Iowa +15 Iowa
OSU - Mich +14 Mich
OSU - Iowa +14 Iowa
NCSt - Lehigh +13 Lehigh
OSU - Lehigh +12 Lehigh
OkSt - VT +11 VT
Iowa - OkSt +10 Iowa
PSU - Mich +10 PSU
PSU - Mizz +9 PSU
PSU - Iowa +9 PSU
Mizz - Mich +8 Mizz

* You should never wager money you can't afford to lose using advice from a complete stranger, unless it is for the trifecta of Mr. Willy, White Lightning, and Pocono Joe in the seventh race.

love this!

 

[dbldoofus]

Does the sports book have odds on carton vs pletcher? Either mat # or point spread?

 

[diggerpup]

Pretty close to coin flip for team ...

Actually .... I think -1.5 (-175) as Ohio St favorite is pretty steep.

I guess it’s only 2 pts or so, but at -175. Sheesh.

 

[dunkej01]

semis odds

Take nolf all day and pay next months mortgage

https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/ncaa-wrestling-betting/ncaa-wrestling.sbk

 

[burnsie1983]

I'm not a betting man, but I think the Mizzou/PSU matchup could be a pretty safe . Line is PSU -46.5 currently. Their lines are inconsistent, too. PSU gives 46.5 to Mizzou, and 59.5 to Michigan, but the line is only Mizzou -7.5 vs Michigan. I personally think Michigan outscores Mizzou straight up.

Wishing I had taken my own advice on both of these...haha!

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

I think the model got 9 right and 5 wrong, with all the misses being with Missouri and Lehigh underperforming. Main lesson: beware the non-Big Ten wrestlers with the gaudy records.

The EASY money was with PSU being a 1.5 point underdog. My model had them at 90% to win with Pletcher finishing 5th (he was close) and Nolf winning (he did). I hope many of you took the wagers and will be asking for my address of where to send my all session pass for 2019 in Pittsburgh so I can join you in person.

UFF