Looking at the NCAA Championship website today, I noticed they updated the qualifier allocation criteria sheet to be somewhat more specific. Sorry for the lengthy, nerdy numbers post but this is interesting to me and thought others might be interested or see something I overlooked.
Some interesting takeaways: Pre-allocations are now slated to be released on Thursday, February 11.
There will be three coaches rankings:
Thursday, February 11 (need 2 matches to be eligible)
Thursday, February 25 (3 matches)
Wednesday, March 10 (4 matches)
I know there was some debate about the minimum 4 matches and pre-allocations earlier. One thing left open for debate even in this document is that it doesn't say if conference tournament matches count towards your total to earn a pre-allocation spot or if you need to have 4 matches coming into the conference tournament. For example, if Kerkvliet enters the tournament and goes 3-1 for his only matches would he still get a spot if he entered at 0-0? However they end up counting matches, somebody who doesn't have 4 matches is not going to go the NCAA Tournament based off a a conference finish lower than first.
From the document: "A wrestler who wins the conference championship with less than 4 matches may retain that AQ spot. If the second place finisher in a weight class does not have 4 matches, but the third place finisher does have 4 matches, the third place finisher can be awarded the pre-allocated spot, as the second place finisher is not eligible. The pre-allocated spots belong to the respective conferences to award."
Since they are still doing a coach's ranking after the conference tournaments, I would think at the minimum if Kerkvliet enters the Big 10 Tournament with 0 matches and goes 3-1 or whatever combination of at least four and doesn't win he should still be eligible for an at-large if he meets two of the standards on page 6. Ideally, his four matches (if he would get that many) count that day towards his total and he could get a spot for 2nd place or whatever. Or just win it and let Parris worry about that depending on the rest of Michigan's schedule. Steveson already has 6 matches.
It also says the allocations will be on historical data from the past five years "earned allocations at each weight class in each conference."
That table is below with the actual pre-allocation averages by the last five years.
Some interesting takeaways: Pre-allocations are now slated to be released on Thursday, February 11.
There will be three coaches rankings:
Thursday, February 11 (need 2 matches to be eligible)
Thursday, February 25 (3 matches)
Wednesday, March 10 (4 matches)
I know there was some debate about the minimum 4 matches and pre-allocations earlier. One thing left open for debate even in this document is that it doesn't say if conference tournament matches count towards your total to earn a pre-allocation spot or if you need to have 4 matches coming into the conference tournament. For example, if Kerkvliet enters the tournament and goes 3-1 for his only matches would he still get a spot if he entered at 0-0? However they end up counting matches, somebody who doesn't have 4 matches is not going to go the NCAA Tournament based off a a conference finish lower than first.
From the document: "A wrestler who wins the conference championship with less than 4 matches may retain that AQ spot. If the second place finisher in a weight class does not have 4 matches, but the third place finisher does have 4 matches, the third place finisher can be awarded the pre-allocated spot, as the second place finisher is not eligible. The pre-allocated spots belong to the respective conferences to award."
Since they are still doing a coach's ranking after the conference tournaments, I would think at the minimum if Kerkvliet enters the Big 10 Tournament with 0 matches and goes 3-1 or whatever combination of at least four and doesn't win he should still be eligible for an at-large if he meets two of the standards on page 6. Ideally, his four matches (if he would get that many) count that day towards his total and he could get a spot for 2nd place or whatever. Or just win it and let Parris worry about that depending on the rest of Michigan's schedule. Steveson already has 6 matches.
It also says the allocations will be on historical data from the past five years "earned allocations at each weight class in each conference."
That table is below with the actual pre-allocation averages by the last five years.
| 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184 | 197 | 285 | Total |
ACC | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 34.2 |
Big 12 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 45.0 |
Big 10 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 77.0 |
EIWA | 3.4 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 46.4 |
MAC | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 47.4 |
PAC 12 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 19.4 |
SoCon | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 13.8 |
Total | 28.2 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 28.0 | 28.6 | 27.6 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.0 | 28.8 | 283.2 |
Taking out teams that are not competing in each conference (example EIWA counts 10/17 bids; MAC 13/14) and then re-averaging to get 29 total pre-allocations per weight I came up with the following estimates. | 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184 | 197 | 285 | Total |
ACC | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 38 |
Big 12 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 51 |
Big 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 85 |
EIWA | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
MAC | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 49 |
PAC 12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 22 |
SoCon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
Total | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 290 |
