1) Rankings/Seeds are going to change. PSU has been bitten hard by the injury bug this year and it may be too much to overcome. But wrestling isn’t as hard to predict/simulate as other sports. You can look at where each wrestler is, their past results, upcoming opponents, and make a fairly accurate estimate of where they will end up. Shout out to WrestleStat who provides a tremendous resource to fans like us. Some weights are more uncertain than others – that is what makes it fun being a fan!
What will be the final ranking/seed of RBY, Berge, Brooks, Rasheed, and Nevills? I don’t know but they have tremendous upside. Here is a weight by weight projection based on how each wrestler has done in the past how they are likely to finish the year. My projections are speculative, but what would generally be referred to as semi-quantitative. They looked at how these guys have done so far and how they historically have done against Top-32, Top-16, and Top-8 wrestlers. Younger guys are obviously much harder to project.
125 – 1 - Lee (18-0), 2- Glory (26-0), 3 – Mueller (14-0), 4 - Picc (26-2), Everybody else. Lee should win this, but has barely wrestled out of the first period all year. Could someone push him if they survive to the third? Best Guess is Lee #1 and PSU NQ or #24+. Believe Lee wins but no bonus in semis or finals.
133 – 1 – Big Ten winner (X-1), 2 - Tucker (28-0), 3 - Phillippi (26-1), 4 - BT Runner up (X-2), 5 - BT Third (X-3), 6 – BT Fourth, 7 - ?, 8 - ?. This weight could be crazy from a seeding perspective especially if the BT runner-up has 3 losses. Tucker is likely to be unbeaten and Phillippi is likely to only have one loss. I could see the seeding committee go this way, which means you are probably better off being fourth in the Big Ten, and common opinion is this could be RBY. RBY will get DeSanto and Gross and we will find out where he is at. Best guess is DeSanto #4 and RBY #6.
141 – Likely Woods (23-1), Heil (34-3), Wilson (27-6), Murin (16-7), McKee (29-6), Moran (23-6), Red (20-8). Otherwise, come back to this weight in a month. Lee could range from 22-0 to 19-3. Pletcher 28-0 to 25-3, Demas 28-2 to 27-4, GFeller 18-1 to 15-4. Best guess is Lee #2 and Murin #10.
149 – OConnor (27-1), Mauller (27-2), Van der Merwe (19-3). Otherwise the current top guys are mostly anywhere from where they are now in number of losses to +4/5. Lugo is unbeaten but had a couple of “lucky” wins. His best year is 9 losses and he wrestles a lot of close matches. Not a good plan for the NCAA tournament. I think the young guys in the Big Ten get him and he is 19-4 and a #5 seed for the tourney behind Lewallen, OConnor, Sasso, and Lee. Our guy Verk has everything in front of him. Looking like 20-6 to 19-7 to me a #9/10 seed. Prove me wrong Jarod!
157 – 1 – Deakin (22-0), 2 – Hidlay (28-1), 3 – Carr (24-1), 4 – Monday (28-3), 5 – Young (19-4), 6 – Dellavecchia (29-3), 7 Berge (12-1 to ?), 8 Humphries (20-5). Really don’t know what to make of Berge or where he will end up. Even if he gets in and wrestles well and say beats everyone but Deakin, he could be a #6 because the seeding committee tends to penalize low match guys. Young is a mistake away from dropping to 7/8 where you don’t want to be because you get Deakin/Hidlay. Though I think Carr is right with them so you don’t want to be #6 either.
165 – 1 or 2 – Joseph and Marinelli at one loss each. I think they split and whoever wins the BT tourney is the #1. 3 – Griffith who could be 29-0. This year’s Mekhi Lewis. 4 – McFadden 24-2, 5 – Wittlake 28-3, 6 – Wick 27-4, 7 – Shields 26-5, 8 – White 21-5, 9 – Fogarty 22-4. I really think this is a situation where you don’t want to be #2. Joseph has never wrestled Wick to my knowledge, so maybe this weight goes crazy. If Wick can ride Marinelli like a rented mule he can probably do it to anyone. Best guess is Joseph/Marinelli at #1/#2 either order.
174 – 1 – Hall (26-0), 2 – Kutler (21-1), 3 – Kemerer (15-2), 4 – Steiert (26-2), 5 – Lydy (30-4), then an mess from Labriola, Sktazka, Hastings, Romero. This is Hall’s weight, he looks great and is a man on a mission. Besides Hall, nobody has taken Kutler down I don’t believe this year and he is a SR. In general SR’s wrestle better in their last tourney. Hall #1, Kemerer #3.
184 – 1 – Valencia (30-0), Lujan (28-2), then after this Venz (21-6), the three ACC guys (Bolen, Hidlay, Bonnacorsi) who are likely to beat each other up, Deprez 28-6. Our man Brooks could be anywhere from 18-0 to 14-5. I am really high on him, think he is more towards the top end. If so slot him as high as #3. 184 in the Big Ten is weak, the is much more a true national weight. Assad? Looking like 25-6 or so. Much of this depends on the head to head and BT tourney, much like 165. Brooks has the much better pedigree, Brooks #4 and Assad #9 but this is a WAG.
197 – 1 – Moore (27-0), 2 – Adams (32-0), 3 – Brucki (21-3), 4-6 - Some combo of Norfleet (15-2), Aiello (28-4), Geer (25-4), 7 – Stencil (29-4), 8 – Darmstadt (28-7). Warner (18-6) but in with a group of Davidson (18-7), Sloan (22-7), Bulsak (25-5), and our man Rasheed (10-4?). Rasheed can be the type of guy that is seeded low and just wrecks a bracket if he is to full strength by mid-March. Warner #9, Rasheed around there but wrestles much better than his seed (opposite of last year).
285 -1 or 2 Stevenson and Parris. #3 through #8 pick 5 from Hall (23-4), Orndorff (23-2), Hokit (24-4), Heine (26-3), Thomas (23-3), Cass (19-4), Stencil (29-4), Hilger (23-6), Wood (17-5). Nevills? (17-4). How good is Nevills? He is athletic, is he strong enough against the beefy men? I think Cass is #4 and Nevills #10 but flip that if Nevills beats him (and Hilger).
The seeds would then look like this:
Iowa – 1, 4, 10, 5, 5, 2, 3, 9, 4 (still very formidable)
PSU – NQ, 6, 2, 9, 7, 1, 1, 4, 10 (looking better)
Putting those into WrestleSim without other changes gives Iowa 65% chance of winning and PSU 35% chance. That gap has closed considerably, but still a gap. Let’s look at the next factor – Tournament prep/coaching differences.
What will be the final ranking/seed of RBY, Berge, Brooks, Rasheed, and Nevills? I don’t know but they have tremendous upside. Here is a weight by weight projection based on how each wrestler has done in the past how they are likely to finish the year. My projections are speculative, but what would generally be referred to as semi-quantitative. They looked at how these guys have done so far and how they historically have done against Top-32, Top-16, and Top-8 wrestlers. Younger guys are obviously much harder to project.
125 – 1 - Lee (18-0), 2- Glory (26-0), 3 – Mueller (14-0), 4 - Picc (26-2), Everybody else. Lee should win this, but has barely wrestled out of the first period all year. Could someone push him if they survive to the third? Best Guess is Lee #1 and PSU NQ or #24+. Believe Lee wins but no bonus in semis or finals.
133 – 1 – Big Ten winner (X-1), 2 - Tucker (28-0), 3 - Phillippi (26-1), 4 - BT Runner up (X-2), 5 - BT Third (X-3), 6 – BT Fourth, 7 - ?, 8 - ?. This weight could be crazy from a seeding perspective especially if the BT runner-up has 3 losses. Tucker is likely to be unbeaten and Phillippi is likely to only have one loss. I could see the seeding committee go this way, which means you are probably better off being fourth in the Big Ten, and common opinion is this could be RBY. RBY will get DeSanto and Gross and we will find out where he is at. Best guess is DeSanto #4 and RBY #6.
141 – Likely Woods (23-1), Heil (34-3), Wilson (27-6), Murin (16-7), McKee (29-6), Moran (23-6), Red (20-8). Otherwise, come back to this weight in a month. Lee could range from 22-0 to 19-3. Pletcher 28-0 to 25-3, Demas 28-2 to 27-4, GFeller 18-1 to 15-4. Best guess is Lee #2 and Murin #10.
149 – OConnor (27-1), Mauller (27-2), Van der Merwe (19-3). Otherwise the current top guys are mostly anywhere from where they are now in number of losses to +4/5. Lugo is unbeaten but had a couple of “lucky” wins. His best year is 9 losses and he wrestles a lot of close matches. Not a good plan for the NCAA tournament. I think the young guys in the Big Ten get him and he is 19-4 and a #5 seed for the tourney behind Lewallen, OConnor, Sasso, and Lee. Our guy Verk has everything in front of him. Looking like 20-6 to 19-7 to me a #9/10 seed. Prove me wrong Jarod!
157 – 1 – Deakin (22-0), 2 – Hidlay (28-1), 3 – Carr (24-1), 4 – Monday (28-3), 5 – Young (19-4), 6 – Dellavecchia (29-3), 7 Berge (12-1 to ?), 8 Humphries (20-5). Really don’t know what to make of Berge or where he will end up. Even if he gets in and wrestles well and say beats everyone but Deakin, he could be a #6 because the seeding committee tends to penalize low match guys. Young is a mistake away from dropping to 7/8 where you don’t want to be because you get Deakin/Hidlay. Though I think Carr is right with them so you don’t want to be #6 either.
165 – 1 or 2 – Joseph and Marinelli at one loss each. I think they split and whoever wins the BT tourney is the #1. 3 – Griffith who could be 29-0. This year’s Mekhi Lewis. 4 – McFadden 24-2, 5 – Wittlake 28-3, 6 – Wick 27-4, 7 – Shields 26-5, 8 – White 21-5, 9 – Fogarty 22-4. I really think this is a situation where you don’t want to be #2. Joseph has never wrestled Wick to my knowledge, so maybe this weight goes crazy. If Wick can ride Marinelli like a rented mule he can probably do it to anyone. Best guess is Joseph/Marinelli at #1/#2 either order.
174 – 1 – Hall (26-0), 2 – Kutler (21-1), 3 – Kemerer (15-2), 4 – Steiert (26-2), 5 – Lydy (30-4), then an mess from Labriola, Sktazka, Hastings, Romero. This is Hall’s weight, he looks great and is a man on a mission. Besides Hall, nobody has taken Kutler down I don’t believe this year and he is a SR. In general SR’s wrestle better in their last tourney. Hall #1, Kemerer #3.
184 – 1 – Valencia (30-0), Lujan (28-2), then after this Venz (21-6), the three ACC guys (Bolen, Hidlay, Bonnacorsi) who are likely to beat each other up, Deprez 28-6. Our man Brooks could be anywhere from 18-0 to 14-5. I am really high on him, think he is more towards the top end. If so slot him as high as #3. 184 in the Big Ten is weak, the is much more a true national weight. Assad? Looking like 25-6 or so. Much of this depends on the head to head and BT tourney, much like 165. Brooks has the much better pedigree, Brooks #4 and Assad #9 but this is a WAG.
197 – 1 – Moore (27-0), 2 – Adams (32-0), 3 – Brucki (21-3), 4-6 - Some combo of Norfleet (15-2), Aiello (28-4), Geer (25-4), 7 – Stencil (29-4), 8 – Darmstadt (28-7). Warner (18-6) but in with a group of Davidson (18-7), Sloan (22-7), Bulsak (25-5), and our man Rasheed (10-4?). Rasheed can be the type of guy that is seeded low and just wrecks a bracket if he is to full strength by mid-March. Warner #9, Rasheed around there but wrestles much better than his seed (opposite of last year).
285 -1 or 2 Stevenson and Parris. #3 through #8 pick 5 from Hall (23-4), Orndorff (23-2), Hokit (24-4), Heine (26-3), Thomas (23-3), Cass (19-4), Stencil (29-4), Hilger (23-6), Wood (17-5). Nevills? (17-4). How good is Nevills? He is athletic, is he strong enough against the beefy men? I think Cass is #4 and Nevills #10 but flip that if Nevills beats him (and Hilger).
The seeds would then look like this:
Iowa – 1, 4, 10, 5, 5, 2, 3, 9, 4 (still very formidable)
PSU – NQ, 6, 2, 9, 7, 1, 1, 4, 10 (looking better)
Putting those into WrestleSim without other changes gives Iowa 65% chance of winning and PSU 35% chance. That gap has closed considerably, but still a gap. Let’s look at the next factor – Tournament prep/coaching differences.
