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One of the better PSU/Auburn game analysis I've read....

I listened to some Auburn podcasts this morning. They’re fairly confident in leaving Happy Valley with a W. The consensus is the Auburn D will overwhelm our offensive line and Clifford. They believe Tank Bigsby to have a big night. We shall see
 
Strange, in that the Auburn fan downplayed their front four stating that their two starting DT's transferred out, and the one OL they switched to DT was doing extremly well but is now injured for another month or so. So, as Fowler puts, Auburn's front four is superior to our???
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The Bama St. game, Auburn had to kick field goals the first two possessions because they could no punch it it. Then the blocked kicks, fumbles, and interceptions stated their blowout against an extremely inferior team.
 
I listened to some Auburn podcasts this morning. They’re fairly confident in leaving Happy Valley with a W. The consensus is the Auburn D will overwhelm our offensive line and Clifford. They believe Tank Bigsby to have a big night. We shall see
That's possible. Wisconsin dominated PSU but we won because of turnovers and a few big plays.

The question is what will the offense look like? Will PSU come out trying to establish the run? I think that could put them behind the eight ball. The running game went nowhere at Wisconsin and I don't think it will be much better vs Auburn unless we can get their D off balance. I think PSU will need to pass to set up the run.
 
No turnovers. O-Line holds up decently. A sack and a few negative running plays is okay.

On D control their run game.
They can get yards and even get 150 yards rushing but no big gainers and be stout on first down. We do all that and we win.
 
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That's possible. Wisconsin dominated PSU but we won because of turnovers and a few big plays.

The question is what will the offense look like? Will PSU come out trying to establish the run? I think that could put them behind the eight ball. The running game went nowhere at Wisconsin and I don't think it will be much better vs Auburn unless we can get their D off balance. I think PSU will need to pass to set up the run.

Wisconsin did not "dominate" PSU - that's utter nonsense. PSU's offense averaged 6 yards per play (297 yards on 51 plays), Wisconsin averaged a pretty horrid 3.84 yards per offensive play (365 yards on 95 plays). Beyond that PSU left way more points on the field than Wisconsin (missed FG, 2 overthrows when Dotson was running free behind the Wisconsin defense.....). Averaging 3.84 yards per offensive snap is not "dominating" in an way, shape or form but your insistence that it is demonstrates your lack of true football knowledge.
 
That's possible. Wisconsin dominated PSU but we won because of turnovers and a few big plays.

The question is what will the offense look like? Will PSU come out trying to establish the run? I think that could put them behind the eight ball. The running game went nowhere at Wisconsin and I don't think it will be much better vs Auburn unless we can get their D off balance. I think PSU will need to pass to set up the run.
Sorry, just can't buy that "Wisconsin dominated PSU". Penn State made winning plays; there are no prizes for time of possession or number of first downs. If we want to talk about "could have been" "should have been", Penn State could have won 20-10 with a made Xtra point and chip shot FG.

Consider also that in the first game of the season, Wisconsin had the home field advantage, and tomorrow Penn State will have the home field advantage. The game will be decided on the score board, not the stat sheet. I like Penn State's chances.
 
Game #3 with a new OC will go much more smoothly than Game #1. Wisconsin was the perfect opening game since our guys had to put it together against a good team. Ball State also posed some challenges so at this point I think the team knows themselves pretty well. OTOH, Auburn has played two tomato cans so I doubt they have as good an idea where they stand.
 
Give SC a Valium prior to the start of the game to calm him down and get the OL to run block, then we win. Keep hearing about this dominating Auburn DL that will destroy our OL, have to wait and see. If we start the game with Cain running up the middle for a loss, we are in trouble.

And, have this OL please block a LB for once in my life!
 
Penn State will come out establishing the run, and when Auburn leans into that, then Penn State will pop a few to Dotson to keep Auburn guessing. Bet on the Tight Ends being Yurcich's surprise feature this week.
Forgot about the TE's. Think Yurcich has been hiding them until Sat. night. We have 3 very good ones.
 
On the BWI podcast from earlier in the week, the Auburn guy said their safeties are the weak link in their defense
 
Wisconsin did not "dominate" PSU - that's utter nonsense. PSU's offense averaged 6 yards per play (297 yards on 51 plays), Wisconsin averaged a pretty horrid 3.84 yards per offensive play (365 yards on 95 plays). Beyond that PSU left way more points on the field than Wisconsin (missed FG, 2 overthrows when Dotson was running free behind the Wisconsin defense.....). Averaging 3.84 yards per offensive snap is not "dominating" in an way, shape or form but your insistence that it is demonstrates your lack of true football knowledge.
Clifford misses Dotson and that means points left on the field.

Wisconsin has 3 interceptions and a blocked FG and they didn't leave nearly as many points on the field?

Sorry but I disagree.
 
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I listened to some Auburn podcasts this morning. They’re fairly confident in leaving Happy Valley with a W. The consensus is the Auburn D will overwhelm our offensive line and Clifford. They believe Tank Bigsby to have a big night. We shall see
A media outlet which is generally positive about the team it covers? Amazing. I'm used to some Penn State reporters who love to talk shit about the team whenever they can.
 
Clifford misses Dotson and that means points left on the field.

Wisconsin has 3 interceptions and a blocked FG and they didn't leave nearly as many points on the field?

Sorry but I disagree.

Not sure what game you watched, but Wisconsin only had two INTs and they didn't "miss" a FG - the FG attempt was cleanly blocked by a PSU defender. Anyone who watched the game knows that PSU's defense baited Mertz into both of the interceptions... and both were easily intercepted by PSU d-backs (IOW, they were plays by the PSU defense - they weren't by luck and chance as you'd have people believe). The overthrows of Dotson running free well behind Wisconsin's Defense were mistakes by PSU's Offense, not "plays made by Wisconsin's defense" - how you can't see the difference between PSU's Defense outplaying Wisconsin and making plays (i.e., a blocked FG and 2 INTs) and PSU's kicker missing a chip-shot FG wide left and overthrowing Dotson twice when he's running free behind Wisconsin's D is rather baffling and again speaks to your real football acumen, or lack thereof imho.
 
Apparently Bigsby is able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, in addition to breaking 5 tackles per run, and turning back time with his light speed. Forgive me for the traditional, staid thinking...but, don't you need a good offensive line to run the ball? Penn States defensive line continues to be marginalized by the media, but boy I thought that they looked pretty darn good against a Wisconsin line that is one of the best in the game. I'm actually looking forward to the battle in the trenches in this game. Remember, every snap for AU will be a silent count and that really does make a difference in a game like this.
 
Give SC a Valium prior to the start of the game to calm him down and get the OL to run block, then we win. Keep hearing about this dominating Auburn DL that will destroy our OL, have to wait and see. If we start the game with Cain running up the middle for a loss, we are in trouble.

And, have this OL please block a LB for once in my life!
Yes, I noticed that most of our OL seem to struggle making it to the 2nd level to block. Also concerned about Wallace on the right side. He has been beat badly several times by speed rushes. Needs to move his feet better.
 
Penn State would have gladly signed up for Wisconsin running the ball 80 times if they were averaging 3 yards a carry in the process. But some people here would see that Wisconsin rushed for 240 yards and say that it meant that Penn State's run defense was bad.
 
Apparently Bigsby is able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, in addition to breaking 5 tackles per run, and turning back time with his light speed. Forgive me for the traditional, staid thinking...but, don't you need a good offensive line to run the ball? Penn States defensive line continues to be marginalized by the media, but boy I thought that they looked pretty darn good against a Wisconsin line that is one of the best in the game. I'm actually looking forward to the battle in the trenches in this game. Remember, every snap for AU will be a silent count and that really does make a difference in a game like this.

They held Wisconsin to 3.0 ypc which is definitely a win for PSU's run defense, not Wisconsin's run offense. 3.0 ypc is well-below average - well below average.
 
Sorry, just can't buy that "Wisconsin dominated PSU". Penn State made winning plays; there are no prizes for time of possession or number of first downs. If we want to talk about "could have been" "should have been", Penn State could have won 20-10 with a made Xtra point and chip shot FG.

Consider also that in the first game of the season, Wisconsin had the home field advantage, and tomorrow Penn State will have the home field advantage. The game will be decided on the score board, not the stat sheet. I like Penn State's chances.
I shouldn't have used the word "outplayed". We agree that PSU made the winning plays. Mertz was intercepted, Clifford wasn't. And those interceptions weren't gifts. PSU's defense earned them with their play.

That said, PSU isn't going to beat many top teams with a stagnant offense that gets dominated in TOP and number of plays. They don't necessarily have to win that stat but it's got to be closer. We're not going to be +3 in turnovers every week.
 
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I shouldn't have used the word "outplayed". We agree that PSU made the winning plays. Mertz was intercepted, Clifford wasn't. And those interceptions weren't gifts. PSU's defense earned them with their play.

That said, PSU isn't going to beat many top teams with a stagnant offense that gets dominated in TOP and number of plays. They don't necessarily have to win that stat but it's got to be a bit closer. We're not going to be +3 in turnovers every week.
True, but each game is different. This game will have its own identity, separate from the 2 before it.
 
I shouldn't have used the word "outplayed". We agree that PSU made the winning plays. Mertz was intercepted, Clifford wasn't. And those interceptions weren't gifts. PSU's defense earned them with their play.

That said, PSU isn't going to beat many top teams with a stagnant offense that gets dominated in TOP and number of plays. They don't necessarily have to win that stat but it's got to be a bit closer. We're not going to be +3 in turnovers every week.
Penn State has been getting dominated in time of possession almost every season since 2016, and has won a ton of games in spite of it. The big exception to time of possession was 2020, where we noteworthily did not win a ton of games. It's a stat that's practically meaningless in terms of its positive impact on actually winning the game. Number of plays is a little more relevant, but yards per play and the ratio of big plays to plays run is more important, by a significant margin. More plays mean more chances to score, sure, but more plays also means more chances to make a mistake (which Wisconsin did a lot of).

Most defenses would happily sign up for a situation where the offense needs to plod their way down the field three yards at a time, because it means that the offense isn't able to effectively create space, and eventually you need to create space to score.
 
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Give SC a Valium prior to the start of the game to calm him down and get the OL to run block, then we win. Keep hearing about this dominating Auburn DL that will destroy our OL, have to wait and see. If we start the game with Cain running up the middle for a loss, we are in trouble.

And, have this OL please block a LB for once in my life!
I really like the Valium idea. I don’t want to see those overthrows to their Safetys .
 
I shouldn't have used the word "outplayed". We agree that PSU made the winning plays. Mertz was intercepted, Clifford wasn't. And those interceptions weren't gifts. PSU's defense earned them with their play.

That said, PSU isn't going to beat many top teams with a stagnant offense that gets dominated in TOP and number of plays. They don't necessarily have to win that stat but it's got to be a bit closer. We're not going to be +3 in turnovers every week.
At this point it's clear that CJF does not think TOP is that important, he values explosive plays and turnovers, it's the first thing he points to post-game. Having said that, that philosophy is a double-edged sword. As we have seen, if you rely on explosive plays, sometimes it's difficult to run a clock-bleeding 4 minute offense when you need to close out a game.
 
Penn State would have gladly signed up for Wisconsin running the ball 80 times if they were averaging 3 yards a carry in the process. But some people here would see that Wisconsin rushed for 240 yards and say that it meant that Penn State's run defense was bad.

Exactly, Wisconsin's 3.0 ypc was not appreciably better than PSU's 2.8 ypc.
 
Penn State has been getting dominated in time of possession almost every season since 2016, and has won a ton of games in spite of it. The big exception to time of possession was 2020, where we noteworthily did not win a ton of games. It's a stat that's practically meaningless in terms of its positive impact on actually winning the game. Number of plays is a little more relevant, but yards per play and the ratio of big plays to plays run is more important, by a significant margin. More plays mean more chances to score, sure, but more plays also means more chances to make a mistake (which Wisconsin did a lot of).

Most defenses would happily sign up for a situation where the offense needs to plod their way down the field three yards at a time, because it means that the offense isn't able to effectively create space, and eventually you need to create space to score.

Exactly, ypp is much more correlated to winning. PSU put up 6.0 ypp versus Wisconsin's very bad 3.84 ypp - you aren't going to beat many teams averaging only 3.84 ypp. The other stat that is highly correlated to winning is "scoring efficiency" (i.e., how many "yards per point"). PSU needed about 18.5 yards per point -- 295 yards / 16 points. Wisconsin needed 36.5 yards per point -- 365 yards / 10 points.
 
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CJF only cares about winning the TO and big plays battle. He isn’t interested in TOP. He’s stated that on numerous occasions. What are they +5 in TO margin so far?
 
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Wisconsin did not "dominate" PSU - that's utter nonsense. PSU's offense averaged 6 yards per play (297 yards on 51 plays), Wisconsin averaged a pretty horrid 3.84 yards per offensive play (365 yards on 95 plays). Beyond that PSU left way more points on the field than Wisconsin (missed FG, 2 overthrows when Dotson was running free behind the Wisconsin defense.....). Averaging 3.84 yards per offensive snap is not "dominating" in an way, shape or form but your insistence that it is demonstrates your lack of true football knowledge.
77% of our yardage and 100% of our points are directly attributed to six plays, five of which were a direct result of an unforced error on Wisconsin's part. The sixth play did not impact the score board. We were dominated. Wisconsin's mistakes were the only reason we weren't shut out.
 
At this point it's clear that CJF does not think TOP is that important, he values explosive plays and turnovers, it's the first thing he points to post-game. Having said that, that philosophy is a double-edged sword. As we have seen, if you rely on explosive plays, sometimes it's difficult to run a clock-bleeding 4 minute offense when you need to close out a game.
This is a true statement. It is also why Franklin will never win a championship in State College.
 
Did Auburn have a good defense last year? Why is their defense getting the “vaunted” tag? They’re top five in total defense this year against the easiest schedule thus far in the nation.

Outside of Georgia, I thought playing defense was a thing of the past in the SEC.
 
Did Auburn have a good defense last year? Why is their defense getting the “vaunted” tag? They’re top five in total defense this year against the easiest schedule thus far in the nation.

Outside of Georgia, I thought playing defense was a thing of the past in the SEC.
They have been an above average to good defense the last two years. Nothing special. They have some good pieces kind of like ours but also holes that can be exploited. Harsin brought in Derek Mason to run the D. He is an elite coordinator. They essentially run the same defense this year as last year and the year before. Think of the transition from Roof/Butler to Shoop when Franklin arrived. A few nuances and play calling tendencies shifted but mostly the same.

Personnel wise, the secondary is their position of strength. Both corners and the free safety are returning starters. One corner and the free safety are projected as 1st or 2nd round picks. The other corner is on the NFL's radar as well. The strong safety is a grad transfer for a lower division program. Per an Auburn site, he is now in his fifth year as a starter thanks to Covid rules. Walter Football had him as a late round draft prospect.

The front seven is talented but several new starters. I don't think anyone has a good handle on them yet due to the competition. I think the big one is Derek Mason. He might be the best DC in America if he reverts to form after replacing CJF at Vandy for a few years.
 
This is a true statement. It is also why Franklin will never win a championship in State College.
LOL. What do you call this?

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Not sure what game you watched, but Wisconsin only had two INTs and they didn't "miss" a FG - the FG attempt was cleanly blocked by a PSU defender. Anyone who watched the game knows that PSU's defense baited Mertz into both of the interceptions... and both were easily intercepted by PSU d-backs (IOW, they were plays by the PSU defense - they weren't by luck and chance as you'd have people believe). The overthrows of Dotson running free well behind Wisconsin's Defense were mistakes by PSU's Offense, not "plays made by Wisconsin's defense" - how you can't see the difference between PSU's Defense outplaying Wisconsin and making plays (i.e., a blocked FG and 2 INTs) and PSU's kicker missing a chip-shot FG wide left and overthrowing Dotson twice when he's running free behind Wisconsin's D is rather baffling and again speaks to your real football acumen, or lack thereof imho.
totally agree. also 25% of the offensive stats for Wisky occured in the last 9 minutes when PSU went to "prevent" D.
 
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Regarding Franklin's fixation with explosive plays and winning the turnover battle, I think it is one thing to cite them, but quite another to play to these stats.

Of course winning those categories would tend to correlate to winning games, but in any statistical analysis, one should distinguish cause from effect.

How we achieve those stats, against superior opposition, is what I would rather hear from Franklin.

Heaving it deep hasn't always generated the "explosive play." Having your secondary jump routes can get you beat deep by a good team. Tackling the football might not bring a good runner down.
 
Clifford misses Dotson and that means points left on the field.

Wisconsin has 3 interceptions and a blocked FG and they didn't leave nearly as many points on the field?

Sorry but I disagree.

In regards to the interceptions you give Wisconsin the benefit of the doubt instead giving our safeties credit for making amazing plays?
 
77% of our yardage and 100% of our points are directly attributed to six plays, five of which were a direct result of an unforced error on Wisconsin's part. The sixth play did not impact the score board. We were dominated. Wisconsin's mistakes were the only reason we weren't shut out.

So now, all big PSU Pass plays don't count because they're really mistakes by Wisconsin, not plays by the PSU Offense??? You are really one silly phuck who demonstrates how little they really now about football every time you open your silly douche mouth.
 
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Regarding Franklin's fixation with explosive plays and winning the turnover battle, I think it is one thing to cite them, but quite another to play to these stats.

Of course winning those categories would tend to correlate to winning games, but in any statistical analysis, one should distinguish cause from effect.

How we achieve those stats, against superior opposition, is what I would rather hear from Franklin.

Heaving it deep hasn't always generated the "explosive play." Having your secondary jump routes can get you beat deep by a good team. Tackling the football might not bring a good runner down.
Actually, last year (4-5 record) we probably dominated opponents in TOP. FDs, total offense and JF replaced the OC. BTW - if you study the data, it was NOT a bunch of catchup yardage, we were ahead in many of the offensive stats early in games we lost. We TOTALLY dominated Indiana, and that was without Journey and losing Cain on the first series. Our defense stats were also solid.

what we had issues was scoring offense and scoring defense stats. however, if you take out the scoring by opponents that came from big turnovers, the D was not that bad statistically.

JF clearly believes in big play offense and TOs. Yes wins correlate to those results, but in big games you often have to win without either being big factors. can you just move the ball and stuff the other guys in a fist fight where big plays and TOs are not present.

so if we have a fist fight game with Auburn, to me it comes down to our OL v Auburn DL and our DL vs Auburn OL = trench game. if that is what happens, say no lucky plays by either and we just have street fight, how do we fair? if it is that kind of game, the O/U of 52.5 seems pretty high. maybe more like 35. can we win a game like this - say 20 to 14?
 
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