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Football Orange Bowl: Penn State opens as a slight underdog to Notre Dame

Spread takes into account the Franklin factor and the below.

“Penn State notably is 0-6 as an underdog since the start of the 2022 season and 1-15 as an underdog since 2017.”
So tired of hearing about that. The sports media is hung up on that stat. Sadly, some "fans" around here are stuck on it too.

Time to bust the narrative.
 
So tired of hearing about that. The sports media is hung up on that stat. Sadly, some "fans" around here are stuck on it too.

Time to bust the narrative.
Golden opportunity otherwise you will continue to be tired of hearing about it even more loudly….
 
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Spread takes into account the Franklin factor and the below.

“Penn State notably is 0-6 as an underdog since the start of the 2022 season and 1-15 as an underdog since 2017.”
So 3 to Ohio State, 2 to UM and 1 to Oregon. 5 of those teams ended up in the playoff. The other was 11-0 before losing by 6 to the national champs. Probably 95-99 percent of coaches would be 0-6 against that schedule.
 
If Franklin didn’t have the above history, we might actually be a slight favorite….we may very well end up a favorite depending on where the money goes the next 7 days…

The history is Franklin in big games. Not franklin as an underdog.

As an underdog your spread doesn't get worse because you're an underdog. That is idiotic.

That would mean the second we get to +1 we jump immediately to plus 4. That’s not how lines work.
 
Spread takes into account the Franklin factor and the below.

“Penn State notably is 0-6 as an underdog since the start of the 2022 season and 1-15 as an underdog since 2017.”

It is what it is until proven otherwise. We are .... ready to see change.

[That doesn't mean doing silly risky stuff to show that we have changed and are now fearless. All must stay focused and play smart. Beat this favored Notre Dame team and do it with class. A win in the Orange Bowl would go a long way towards dissolving the Franklin Factor.]
 
I've watched every ND game this year. They are legit.

Their running game is better than ours. Better line, better backs, much better running QB.

As much as everyone here hates on our receivers, ND's are worse. At least we have Warren. ND's Faison is a pretty good WR who missed a lot of time, but is back healthy. Their TE Evans is very good but very underused. Nothing much else. We should handle their passing game. Leonard not that polished as a passer, but much better than early in the season.

They've had lots of injuries on defense this year with several guys out for the year, but have somehow continued to be great. Defenses are about even.

Their kicking game is shaky. That could be the difference in a tight, low scoring game.
 
Is it "destiny"?

Is it determinative of the outcome of the next game?
Certainly not, but that wasn't the assertion I was responding to. JF teams have not fared well in match ups like this one. Let's hope PSU doesn't continue the pattern. Outside of the WRs, this is probably his strongest team. Let's hope there are no key 4th down or 2-pt conversion decisions 🤞
 
1-15 over 8 years is a pretty solid sample size. I wouldn't call it a "narrative."

And if you go back one more year, he's 3-17 (PSU played 3 top 5 teams in b1g play in 2016 going 2-1 against them). Show me all these teams that have incredible records as underdogs against Top 10 teams with the majority of them against Top 5 teams.
 
I've watched every ND game this year. They are legit.

Their running game is better than ours. Better line, better backs, much better running QB.

As much as everyone here hates on our receivers, ND's are worse. At least we have Warren. ND's Faison is a pretty good WR who missed a lot of time, but is back healthy. Their TE Evans is very good but very underused. Nothing much else. We should handle their passing game. Leonard not that polished as a passer, but much better than early in the season.

They've had lots of injuries on defense this year with several guys out for the year, but have somehow continued to be great. Defenses are about even.

Their kicking game is shaky. That could be the difference in a tight, low scoring game.
Honest question, since I haven't watched them once. What happened in their loss to whatever team they lost to as a big favorite? Northern Illinois I think?
 
I've watched every ND game this year. They are legit.

Their running game is better than ours. Better line, better backs, much better running QB.

As much as everyone here hates on our receivers, ND's are worse. At least we have Warren. ND's Faison is a pretty good WR who missed a lot of time, but is back healthy. Their TE Evans is very good but very underused. Nothing much else. We should handle their passing game. Leonard not that polished as a passer, but much better than early in the season.

They've had lots of injuries on defense this year with several guys out for the year, but have somehow continued to be great. Defenses are about even.

Their kicking game is shaky. That could be the difference in a tight, low scoring game.
Yeah, but you're a serious state-of-Indiana homer, so there's that ...
 
Just curious:
Why does anyone give a damn what the point spread is?
Why are so many butthurt that ND is the favorite?
The point spread will have exactly zero impact on next week’s game.
And if you are inclined to wager on PSU in these games, you should be celebrating.
 
It occurs to me that the 1982 PSU team that won the school's 1st National Championship (MNC) was not the 'best' PSU team of that time period. I'd argue that the 1981 team was better along with 1978 and 1977. The '82 squad just had that extra 'something' that made them resilient, able to overcome the Alabama loss that year and able to come through for each other when things got tough. I feel that vibe in the current squad.
 
So 3 to Ohio State, 2 to UM and 1 to Oregon. 5 of those teams ended up in the playoff. The other was 11-0 before losing by 6 to the national champs. Probably 95-99 percent of coaches would be 0-6 against that schedule.
When you lose to teams you are favored against more than you win against those you are not, you are what you are. An underperforming coach.
 
Honest question, since I haven't watched them once. What happened in their loss to whatever team they lost to as a big favorite? Northern Illinois I think?
Yeah, Northern Illinois
Leonard threw two bad picks and ND missed a FG at the end of regulation
Leonard was still learning the offense and they weren't clicking at all
Still no excuse--it's a bad loss
NIU also really slowed down the ND run game
 
In Joe's day he had the couldn't win the big one tag too until 1982.

It didn't make sense to me because Penn State did have undefeated and untied teams, but they had that bias against eastern independent football. Many here know the story about Nixon and Texas in 1969 and then they had that OSU team in 1968 and of course one year in 1973, it was Notre Dame.

Alabama's goal line stand against us seem to buy into that perception at the time. So when did Joe win his first national championship? It was something like 16 years after his first year of coaching.

Just a year ago after the conference championship games All but four teams were eliminated. Now they're only four teams left in and Penn State is one of them. I think they pointed out that Penn State would've been in a playoff seven times under Franklin previous to this year. Imagine if the system was in place in 1965? I'm gonna bet Joe paternal would've won a few more titles.
 
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