Football Orange Bowl: Penn State opens as a slight underdog to Notre Dame

[PSUWrestlingFanSince2011]

I don't really give a shit about the spread. I think Notre Dame is going to have a hard time getting much out of Jeremiyah Love, and I like our DBs against their Receivers, especially with Leonard throwing. As long as we have a "medium" passing performance, and commit to the run game, I like our chances, so long as we play disciplined on both sides of the trenches.

Jeremiyah Love is injured. He’ll be very limited if he even plays.

 

[LandoComando]

Jeremiyah Love is injured. He’ll be very limited if he even plays.

Jadarian Prince isn't exactly elite but he's a very good back that had 100 yards against USC and a bunch of TDs this year. Isn't Love but it's not like they're going to some unknown at RB. Leonard is also still a threat.

Carter being out/limited is a bigger loss than Love being out/limited--even if Vanover decides to have another "best game of his career" day

 

[m.knox]

Just curious:
Why does anyone give a damn what the point spread is?
Why are so many butthurt that ND is the favorite?
The point spread will have exactly zero impact on next week’s game.
And if you are inclined to wager on PSU in these games, you should be celebrating.

We all need to take a page from Cael and his squad. No matter the seed, no matter who's the favorite, you are going to need to beat them to get to the top. Whether you wrestle them first or last does not matter.

 

[DrJC]

In Joe's day he had the couldn't win the big one tag too until 1982.

It didn't make sense to me because Penn State did have undefeated and untied teams, but they had that bias against eastern independent football. Many here know the story about Nixon and Texas in 1969 and then they had that OSU team in 1968 and of course one year in 1973, it was Notre Dame.

Alabama school line stand against us seem to buy into that perception at the time. So when did Joe win his first national championship? It was something like 16 years after his first year of coaching.

Just a year ago after the conference championship games Albert four teams were eliminated. Now they're only four teams left in Penn State is one of them. I think they pointed out that Penn State would've been in a playoff seven times under Franklin previous to this year. Imagine if the system was in place in 1965? I'm gonna bet Joe paternal would've won a few more titles.

Don't forget 1994

 

[Jerry]

I am very excited to play an old rival. It’s really the best possible outcome. Kudos to ND for playing fundamentally sound football and winning a lot of games while doing so. It still works in 2025! I think we win the game with or without a relatively healthy Carter, if we limit stupid penalties and AK loses the cutesy trick plays that just do not work at this point of the season with so much game tape. We have better athletes and a better qb with similar talent on the lines. If we have uncontrolled emotion resulting in stupid penalties and AK calls 15 yard passes on 3rd and 2, then we lose . ND is too well-coached to be foolish.

Nicely said.

I like this matchup against the Irish. Our OL and running game should have an advantage against their beat-up interior DL. If we can get Drew in rhythm early, I think we'll move the ball effectively against Notre Dame.

As for the betting line, the point is that it's figured to be a roughly even game on paper. No surprise there.

 

[mgkpsu]

Don't know, but how many yards of offense did GA have? ND has a very good defense.

Georgia's passing #s were decent even with a crappy backup QB and Receivers with the dropsies.

18/29 225 (7.8) 1 TD 0 INT

 

[bcspsu]

Georgia's passing #s were decent even with a crappy backup QB and Receivers with the dropsies.

18/29 225 (7.8) 1 TD 0 INT

That qb played better than I thought that he would, and he definitely isn't the qb that Allar is, at least right now. Also, UGA's wide receiving corps isn't great, and may not even be as good as PSU's, epecially if you include the tight ends.

 

[bison13]

Point spreads are only about the betting public and getting even money, some people read way too much in to them

 

[OzLion]

Penn state is bottom 30 in the country in the last decade as an underdog. .

Bottom 20 as road dog….

This is a tricky stat, because it is an apples vs oranges comparison of teams. PSU is only an underdog against elite teams, whereas other teams, lets say MSU for example, are underdogs against above average schools of any sort lately. So if MSU beats Minnesota, they get credited for winning as an underdog while against the same opponent PSU would have been the favorite.

 

[PSUMATT85]

Penn state is bottom 30 in the country in the last decade as an underdog. .

Bottom 20 as road dog….

There is a reason there is a narrative around James…

Lucky I picked the last decade, if you look at since 2019, we are the 9th worst program as underdog..

College Football Team Win Trends - As Underdog

Free college football team win trends and splits in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks as underdog results.

www.teamrankings.com

Why do you say 1-15, and your referenced website says 2-15. It’s bad enough, you don’t need to exaggerate. 😀. I checked, because I could think of 2.

 

[zubrus1]

Why do you say 1-15, and your referenced website says 2-15. It’s bad enough, you don’t need to exaggerate. 😀. I checked, because I could think of 2.

I didn’t say 1-15, the orginal article linked did

 

[RickinDayton]

I am very excited to play an old rival. It’s really the best possible outcome. Kudos to ND for playing fundamentally sound football and winning a lot of games while doing so. It still works in 2025! I think we win the game with or without a relatively healthy Carter, if we limit stupid penalties and AK loses the cutesy trick plays that just do not work at this point of the season with so much game tape. We have better athletes and a better qb with similar talent on the lines. If we have uncontrolled emotion resulting in stupid penalties and AK calls 15 yard passes on 3rd and 2, then we lose . ND is too well-coached to be foolish.

Those are my concerns.

 

[PSU20]

Those are my concerns.

Yes, forget the trick plays like throwing it back and forth from the 15 YL on a 3rd and 3 when you have Allen tearing it up. And, 3rd and 1, throwing a 15 yard incomplete pass. Insane!

 

[doctornick]

IMHO it should be ACC in the Cotton Bowl and Big 12 refs in the Orange. That would pretty much remove any arguments of bias

This is exactly how it ended up!

ACC and Big 12 officiating crews draw the Semifinal assignments

Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl crews are set

www.footballzebras.com

 

[PennState_one]

Many Notre Dame fans seem pretty confident this will be an easy win based on the two games we’ve played. This makes me hope even more that we blow them out. Do I believe that will happen? No, but I do believe they may be underestimating this team.

 

[RickinDayton]

Many Notre Dame fans seem pretty confident this will be an easy win based on the two games we’ve played. This makes me hope even more that we blow them out. Do I believe that will happen? No, but I do believe they may be underestimating this team.

Do they really think Indiana was better than SMU and Boise State? I don't. Additionally that Georgia team was playing a back-up QB with an already offensively challenged team.
This game is a toss up. The team that can run the ball and avoid turnovers wins the game.

 

[ejb25]

That qb played better than I thought that he would, and he definitely isn't the qb that Allar is, at least right now. Also, UGA's wide receiving corps isn't great, and may not even be as good as PSU's, epecially if you include the tight ends.

Really?!? I know nothing about Georgia. I just assumed they recruit high 4* and 5* receivers every year. Our best receivers Trey, Omari, and Warren were 3* recruits. Any reason why Georgia's receivers are not better than ours? Is it development? Did a bunch of WRs leave?

 

[bourbon n blues]

Don't forget 1994

True, but by then he had won two titles.

 

[LandoComando]

Really?!? I know nothing about Georgia. I just assumed they recruit high 4* and 5* receivers every year. Our best receivers Trey, Omari, and Warren were 3* recruits. Any reason why Georgia's receivers are not better than ours? Is it development? Did a bunch of WRs leave?

You're correct--Georgia has a bunch of highly recruited guys but they have flopped this year. Lovett, Bell and especially Arian Smith seemingly drop everything. They added Zachariah Branch to try to help fix that next year. I'm guessing Bell hits the portal but hopefully we don't chase him.

 

[LionDeNittany]

Really?!? I know nothing about Georgia. I just assumed they recruit high 4* and 5* receivers every year. Our best receivers Trey, Omari, and Warren were 3* recruits. Any reason why Georgia's receivers are not better than ours? Is it development? Did a bunch of WRs leave?

Georgia loses receivers to the NFL every year and every now and then they will have a bad corps with that kind of turnover.

LdN

 

[fastlax16]

if we play a clean game and don’t turn the ball over, I don’t think they have the offense to beat us straight up. They also haven’t played from behind at all this season so avoiding a slow start and putting them in an uncomfortable position would be nice.