Football Orange Bowl: Penn State opens as a slight underdog to Notre Dame

[bourbon n blues]

In Joe's day he had the couldn't win the big one tag too until 1982.

It didn't make sense to me because Penn State did have undefeated and untied teams, but they had that bias against eastern independent football. Many here know the story about Nixon and Texas in 1969 and then they had that OSU team in 1968 and of course one year in 1973, it was Notre Dame.

Alabama's goal line stand against us seem to buy into that perception at the time. So when did Joe win his first national championship? It was something like 16 years after his first year of coaching.

Just a year ago after the conference championship games All but four teams were eliminated. Now they're only four teams left in and Penn State is one of them. I think they pointed out that Penn State would've been in a playoff seven times under Franklin previous to this year. Imagine if the system was in place in 1965? I'm gonna bet Joe paternal would've won a few more titles.

 

[bcspsu]

Just curious:
Why does anyone give a damn what the point spread is?
Why are so many butthurt that ND is the favorite?
The point spread will have exactly zero impact on next week’s game.
And if you are inclined to wager on PSU in these games, you should be celebrating.

I agree. UGA was favored over ND (I don’t know why), and how did that go? Texas was a two td favorite over ASU and it took two OTs for them to win that game. Moreover, after watching that game, ASU might be just as good as Texas, especially if they had had their injured receiver.

PSU is a really good team right now. but sometimes the people who follow the team the closest just concentrate on the few flaws.

 

[bourbon n blues]

It occurs to me that the 1982 PSU team that won the school's 1st National Championship (MNC) was not the 'best' PSU team of that time period. I'd argue that the 1981 team was better along with 1978 and 1977. The '82 squad just had that extra 'something' that made them resilient, able to overcome the Alabama loss that year and able to come through for each other when things got tough. I feel that vibe in the current squad.

Yep

 

[mgkpsu]

I don't really give a shit about the spread. I think Notre Dame is going to have a hard time getting much out of Jeremiyah Love, and I like our DBs against their Receivers, especially with Leonard throwing. As long as we have a "medium" passing performance, and commit to the run game, I like our chances, so long as we play disciplined on both sides of the trenches.

 

[doctornick]

Hasn't been announced (or i haven't seen it) but it can't be the ACC or Big Ten so...Big XII or SEC

IMHO it should be ACC in the Cotton Bowl and Big 12 refs in the Orange. That would pretty much remove any arguments of bias

 

[NoBareFeet]

Yeah, Northern Illinois
Leonard threw two bad picks and ND missed a FG at the end of regulation
Leonard was still learning the offense and they weren't clicking at all
Still no excuse--it's a bad loss
NIU also really slowed down the ND run game

More like ND inexplicably abandoned the running game. Leonard was bad early in the year. He's playing WAY better.

 

[pennstatepelly]

I don't really give a shit about the spread. I think Notre Dame is going to have a hard time getting much out of Jeremiyah Love, and I like our DBs against their Receivers, especially with Leonard throwing. As long as we have a "medium" passing performance, and commit to the run game, I like our chances, so long as we play disciplined on both sides of the trenches.

Especially if Love isn’t at 100% and I don’t think he is going to be any where close to that.

 

[LandoComando]

IMHO it should be ACC in the Cotton Bowl and Big 12 refs in the Orange. That would pretty much remove any arguments of bias

ACC has biased toward ND
Big XII in both?

 

[NoBareFeet]

Especially if Love isn’t at 100% and I don’t think he is going to be any where close to that.

Could say the same about Carter though.

Jadarian Price is also a damn good back. Would start almost anywhere else.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Speaking of officiating, everyone see this:

Big 12 commish wants 'standards' after no targeting call in CFP​

Guess which Conference the crew is from that the B12 is livid at?

 

[bcspsu]

I don't really give a shit about the spread. I think Notre Dame is going to have a hard time getting much out of Jeremiyah Love, and I like our DBs against their Receivers, especially with Leonard throwing. As long as we have a "medium" passing performance, and commit to the run game, I like our chances, so long as we play disciplined on both sides of the trenches.

ND beat a very offensively challenged UGA because UGA lost at least a field goal by fumbling, gave up a td in the last minute of the first half after another fumble, and gave up basically a 100 yard kick off return for another td. That’s a 17 point differential that was very preventable. If PSU wins the turnover battle or ties it, and plays well on special teams, it will be fine in that game.

PSU already has played two offenses that are light years ahead of ND, both of which had QBs who run a lot, so they should have a game plan for how to control Leonard (he’s ND’s second leading rusher). The d-ends are going to have to keep the edges, which they failed to do against OSU, because the ND backs like to bounce wide. Other than that, our run defense mostly has been excellent this season.

 

[mgkpsu]

Could say the same about Carter though.

Jadarian Price is also a damn good back. Would start almost anywhere else.

But they have no good option after him. Another game with a 30 carry guy? Because they didn't even pass for 100.

And I am far more confident in Carter being able to perform with an arm thing than a RB with an ongoing knee issue and 2 days less to recover.

 

[Hero17]

Perfect as the underdog just blow ND out and freak the journalist out

 

[LMTLION]

I am very excited to play an old rival. It’s really the best possible outcome. Kudos to ND for playing fundamentally sound football and winning a lot of games while doing so. It still works in 2025! I think we win the game with or without a relatively healthy Carter, if we limit stupid penalties and AK loses the cutesy trick plays that just do not work at this point of the season with so much game tape. We have better athletes and a better qb with similar talent on the lines. If we have uncontrolled emotion resulting in stupid penalties and AK calls 15 yard passes on 3rd and 2, then we lose . ND is too well-coached to be foolish.

 

[scrivener]

But they have no good option after him. Another game with a 30 carry guy? Because they didn't even pass for 100.

And I am far more confident in Carter being able to perform with an arm thing than a RB with an ongoing knee issue and 2 days less to recover.

Look at NDs rushing stats...Price is darn good...their 3rd stringer, Williams, has played every game. Riley obviously runs very well for a QB with over 800 yards. I wouldn't assume ND has nobody to pick up the slack.

 

[Delcolion915]

Let's set the record straight about something: That 1978 team was outplayed by Alabama on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Alabama was the better team and deserved the win, goal line stand or no goal line stand.

Just wanted to get that out there.

 

[cntblvitsbutter]

I am very excited to play an old rival. It’s really the best possible outcome. Kudos to ND for playing fundamentally sound football and winning a lot of games while doing so. It still works in 2025! I think we win the game with or without a relatively healthy Carter, if we limit stupid penalties and AK loses the cutesy trick plays that just do not work at this point of the season with so much game tape. We have better athletes and a better qb with similar talent on the lines. If we have uncontrolled emotion resulting in stupid penalties and AK calls 15 yard passes on 3rd and 2, then we lose . ND is too well-coached to be foolish.

ND did not impress at all against UGA. So I'm thinking they should win unless they shoot themselves in the foot with drive/momentum killing cutesie plays, turnovers, or undisciplined penalties.

 

[Delcolion915]

Now with that said, that 1982 team WAS better than that 1981 team. The 1982 team made the plays that win football games. So far this team has made the plays that win football games.

Point spreads less than 3 points on neutral fields are pretty much a push, so fretting about being 1.5 point dogs on neutral fields are not going to matter. What matters next week will be players making plays. If we do that we're going to be ok, if we don't then we won't. Period.

Make plays.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Nothing ever changes! Just ask Finebaum!

 

[LMTLION]

ND did not impress at all against UGA. So I'm thinking they should win unless they shoot themselves in the foot with drive/momentum killing cutesie plays, turnovers, or undisciplined penalties.

How do we let AK know that ND is going to blitz the hell out of Allar? It should be apparent, but lately I’m not so sure with him. Boise provided the blueprint. Obviously it’s easy to beat a blitz using quick hitters to our studs Warren, Allen and Singleton . After you take away their blitz, then you start stretching the field with Allar. If we do that and limit taunting and unnecessary roughness penalties, we easily beat ND.

 

[AWS1022]

Spread takes into account the Franklin factor and the below.

“Penn State notably is 0-6 as an underdog since the start of the 2022 season and 1-15 as an underdog since 2017.”

No it doesn’t….So if they made PSU a 1 point favorite they would be guaranteeing a PSU win? Come on,

 

[zubrus1]

So 3 to Ohio State, 2 to UM and 1 to Oregon. 5 of those teams ended up in the playoff. The other was 11-0 before losing by 6 to the national champs. Probably 95-99 percent of coaches would be 0-6 against that schedule.

Penn state is bottom 30 in the country in the last decade as an underdog. .

Bottom 20 as road dog….

There is a reason there is a narrative around James…

Lucky I picked the last decade, if you look at since 2019, we are the 9th worst program as underdog..

College Football Team Win Trends - As Underdog

Free college football team win trends and splits in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks as underdog results.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[mgkpsu]

Look at NDs rushing stats...Price is darn good...their 3rd stringer, Williams, has played every game. Riley obviously runs very well for a QB with over 800 yards. I wouldn't assume ND has nobody to pick up the slack.

77 carries for 414 yards after Price. And did they magically go back and play a real schedule? Like I said: Leonard can't throw, and Love likely not having a big game is a good recipe for us.

And can they really risk running Leonard around considering they only had 31 passing attempts by anyone else? Our backup transferred and we are not really much worse off in that department.

I personally prefer this matchup to Georgia with their QB having another week of practice.

But everyone already knows that your shtick is to poo poo on everything.

 

[NoBareFeet]

ND did not impress at all against UGA.

Um, they beat Georgia. That's a pretty good accomplishment.

The stats aren't going to look gaudy. Georgia has arguably the best defense in the country.

ND runs the ball great, and plays great physical defense. I remember a guy who had a lot of teams around here who used that formula to win a lot of games...

 

[mgkpsu]

Um, they beat Georgia. That's a pretty good accomplishment.

The stats aren't going to look gaudy. Georgia has arguably the best defense in the country.

ND runs the ball great, and plays great physical defense. I remember a guy who had a lot of teams around here who used that formula to win a lot of games...

You just described us, except we have a much better QB.

 

[NoBareFeet]

You just described us, except we have a much better QB.

I agree Allar is a much better passer than Leonard. But Leonard fits that team and its offense perfectly with his running ability. It's going to be one hell of a game.

 

[ryoder1]

I've watched every ND game this year. They are legit.

Their running game is better than ours. Better line, better backs, much better running QB.

As much as everyone here hates on our receivers, ND's are worse. At least we have Warren. ND's Faison is a pretty good WR who missed a lot of time, but is back healthy. Their TE Evans is very good but very underused. Nothing much else. We should handle their passing game. Leonard not that polished as a passer, but much better than early in the season.

They've had lots of injuries on defense this year with several guys out for the year, but have somehow continued to be great. Defenses are about even.

Their kicking game is shaky. That could be the difference in a tight, low scoring game.

Kicker was not shaky vs Georgia. I don't think their run game is better than ours. Their offense was weak today. Riley will pose a problem with his running. We definitely need Carter.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

We’re doomed 🙄

 

[IANit]

I am very excited to play an old rival. It’s really the best possible outcome. Kudos to ND for playing fundamentally sound football and winning a lot of games while doing so. It still works in 2025! I think we win the game with or without a relatively healthy Carter, if we limit stupid penalties and AK loses the cutesy trick plays that just do not work at this point of the season with so much game tape. We have better athletes and a better qb with similar talent on the lines. If we have uncontrolled emotion resulting in stupid penalties and AK calls 15 yard passes on 3rd and 2, then we lose . ND is too well-coached to be foolish.

My guess is AK has one or two cutesy plays that haven't been seen yet if needed. But we should be able to win without it.

 

[The Song Remains the Same]

I am very excited to play an old rival. It’s really the best possible outcome. Kudos to ND for playing fundamentally sound football and winning a lot of games while doing so. It still works in 2025! I think we win the game with or without a relatively healthy Carter, if we limit stupid penalties and AK loses the cutesy trick plays that just do not work at this point of the season with so much game tape. We have better athletes and a better qb with similar talent on the lines. If we have uncontrolled emotion resulting in stupid penalties and AK calls 15 yard passes on 3rd and 2, then we lose . ND is too well-coached to be foolish.

Regarding 3rd and 2 passes, I was at Fiesta Bowl and do not recall even 1 pass attempt to a RB the entire game....wtf. At times Boise was blitzing and playing man-to-man, where was the screen pass? Or swing pass, or safety valve pass? 10 is exceptional on these.

 

[The Song Remains the Same]

How do we let AK know that ND is going to blitz the hell out of Allar? It should be apparent, but lately I’m not so sure with him. Boise provided the blueprint. Obviously it’s easy to beat a blitz using quick hitters to our studs Warren, Allen and Singleton . After you take away their blitz, then you start stretching the field with Allar. If we do that and limit taunting and unnecessary roughness penalties, we easily beat ND.

Did we throw even a single pass to 10 and 13 the entire game????

 

[scrivener]

Regarding 3rd and 2 passes, I was at Fiesta Bowl and do not recall even 1 pass attempt to a RB the entire game....wtf. At times Boise was blitzing and playing man-to-man, where was the screen pass? Or swing pass, or safety valve pass? 10 is exceptional on these.

Excellent point...it's like the passes and dump offs to the RBs just left AKs playbook. Bizarre considering we lack consistent weapons in the open field outside of TW, and couldn't pick up the blitz all night.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

I am very excited to play an old rival. It’s really the best possible outcome. Kudos to ND for playing fundamentally sound football and winning a lot of games while doing so. It still works in 2025! I think we win the game with or without a relatively healthy Carter, if we limit stupid penalties and AK loses the cutesy trick plays that just do not work at this point of the season with so much game tape. We have better athletes and a better qb with similar talent on the lines. If we have uncontrolled emotion resulting in stupid penalties and AK calls 15 yard passes on 3rd and 2, then we lose . ND is too well-coached to be foolish.

Yeah, I like our chances in this one - we match up well along both sides of scrimmage... I like our Passing Game infinitely better than ND's (but our "prevent" soft zones can make any QB look like a Heisman candidate... - see BGSU Game... - this scares me in a close game.) and I like our Running Game better than ND's... although ND's rushing attack is very solid.

Agree with your Comments about ND - PSU and ND my two favorite teams growing up (but went to PSU....). PSU all the way here both as a fan... and trying to look at it objectively.

 

[PSU20]

ND total yards offense -- 244

Don't know, but how many yards of offense did GA have? ND has a very good defense.

 

[LandoComando]

Only 1 is picking us--none picking Texas
This is a must win to change the narrative around Franklin

College Football Playoff predictions: Expert picks for semifinal games, 2025 national championship bracket

With the quarterfinals now complete, our CBS Sports experts pick the rest of the 2024-25 College Football Playoff

www.cbssports.com

 

[jimarnp]

Orange Bowl: Penn State opens as a slight underdog to Notre Dame

The opening odds for next Thursday's Orange Bowl between Penn State and Notre Dame have been set.

pennstate.rivals.com

Good. It’s good to be seen as the underdog when you’re better than both ND and Georgia…..assuming a healthy( on near healthy) Carter. —If Carter does not play, I can see us as a legit underdog. —If we play a solid game, and limit TO’s, we win…..maybe by a lot.

 

[knickslions]

 

[bcspsu]

View embedded media

Have our total yards on punt returns this season even totaled Williams' punt return for a td in that game?

 

[wilbury]

Excellent point...it's like the passes and dump offs to the RBs just left AKs playbook. Bizarre considering we lack consistent weapons in the open field outside of TW, and couldn't pick up the blitz all night.

I watched the game again last night and I think Boise only had 3 sacks. One of them, Dinkins is the outlet, he's standing all alone with 15 yards in front of him and Allar just eats the ball. For the most part, we kept the RB's in to block.

 

[LandoComando]

Have our total yards on punt returns this season even totaled Williams' punt return for a td in that game?

We have like 130 some yards iirc. Zion has around 80.