OT: Fascinating read on why 'experts' are almost always wrong in their forecasts.

[83wuzme]

As I read the original post I began to think about all the "experts" who offer opinions on the NFL draft and the skills and abilities of players and the needs of each team and where a player should be picked.

Then I thought about the "expert" opinions offered about high school players and ranking the experts have about them. And then what happens to those players overt the next few years.

Then I thought about he "expert" opinions offered on Saturday mornings in the fall by such experts as mushmouth and homer herbie and the legions of other "experts" employed as announcers or color commentators to explain what just happened in the last play.

Finally I went back to thinking about mushmouth and why even paying him .02 cents for his opinion on anything is a waste of money. His hiring decision must have been made by an "expert" at espn.

Then I wondered, is "expert" a synonym for asshole?

I am happy that I am not an expert at anything! Frequently, my wife tells me that my opinions are not worth anything. It is good to know your place in the world.

That post makes me think of Skip Bayless.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

That post makes me think of Skip Bayless.

FLAG - You could easily be banned for life for mentioning that asshole’s name.

 

[The Spin Meister]

So why are they wrong so often? Some interesting thoughts. Confirmation bias, complex systems, ego and more. Some say that people ask too much and them and demand predictions that can't be made. And strange that the article says many refuse to change their predictions/understanding when presented with solid facts.

I think the biggest reason is ego, conceit, and power. When one is a recognized expert, one enjoys great prominence, getting requests for interviews, book deals, honorariums and more . That kinda adulation, respect, and power corrupt us all.

Erlich, who predicted massive human famine, wasn't even an expert in that field but was an expert in butterfly populations(as per article)! He just took that data and observations and extrapolated it to humans. I doubt anyone asked him to do that. But his ego and experience told him his knowledge in one field would be great in other fields.

Another is that we tend to compartmentalize issues and their solutions. It is often wise to look outside of strict disciplines to see how other factors may influence a system.

Another is that it is impossible to predict with accuracy when one cannot know what breakthroughs science will deliver. Erlich predicted famine...cause he had no idea of the impact of genetics, herbicides, pesticides, mechanization, and more. In the peak oil issue I mentioned, no one could foresee with any accuracy the huge impact of fracking and directional drilling.

I am sure that is common in many other problems society faces. The power of human ingenuity cannot be quantified. It is the great unknown that we do not know..to paraphrase Rumsfeld. It seems that necessity is the true mother of invention. When a problem surfaces rest assured that somewhere someone will come up with a solution.

 

[Grant Green]

So why are they wrong so often? Some interesting thoughts. Confirmation bias, complex systems, ego and more. Some say that people ask too much and them and demand predictions that can't be made. And strange that the article says many refuse to change their predictions/understanding when presented with solid facts.

I think the biggest reason is ego, conceit, and power. When one is a recognized expert, one enjoys great prominence, getting requests for interviews, book deals, honorariums and more . That kinda adulation, respect, and power corrupt us all.

Erlich, who predicted massive human famine, wasn't even an expert in that field but was an expert in butterfly populations(as per article)! He just took that data and observations and extrapolated it to humans. I doubt anyone asked him to do that. But his ego and experience told him his knowledge in one field would be great in other fields.

Another is that we tend to compartmentalize issues and their solutions. It is often wise to look outside of strict disciplines to see how other factors may influence a system.

Another is that it is impossible to predict with accuracy when one cannot know what breakthroughs science will deliver. Erlich predicted famine...cause he had no idea of the impact of genetics, herbicides, pesticides, mechanization, and more. In the peak oil issue I mentioned, no one could foresee with any accuracy the huge impact of fracking and directional drilling.

I am sure that is common in many other problems society faces. The power of human ingenuity cannot be quantified. It is the great unknown that we do not know..to paraphrase Rumsfeld. It seems that necessity is the true mother of invention. When a problem surfaces rest assured that somewhere someone will come up with a solution.

You keep saying the experts are wrong most of the time. I think you are overstating it. It's more like, they are not as accurate as people think they should be.

The weatherman is the perfect example. He can get it right Sun-Sat and then miss the rain that happens on Sunday and everyone thinks he is an idiot. But he is predicting the freaking future! It's amazing they get it as right as they do so often.

Why are they wrong more then they should be? Probably because it's really hard to do and it takes a fox to be more accurate. There just aren't that many foxes out there. Sure, bias and other things play in as well.

But hey, I could be wrong. I'm always willing to admit it and change my position.