OT: USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates

[interrobang]

This article from 4 days ago says 80:

One dose of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines was 80% effective in preventing Covid in CDC study of health workers

Like just about all CDC covid studies, this study has a headline saying one thing but the guts of the study saying another.

The majority of the participants were younger healthy white people. None of those demographics are ones that covid most negatively affect. They also did not test for covid or antibodies prior to the study.

Then there's this from the study:

The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations. First, vaccine effectiveness point estimates should be interpreted with caution given the moderately wide CIs attributable in part to the limited number of postimmunization PCR-confirmed infections observed. Second, this also precluded making product-specific vaccine effectiveness estimates and limited the ability to adjust for potential confounders; however, effects were largely unchanged when study site was included in an adjusted vaccine effectiveness model and when adjusted for sex, age, ethnicity, and occupation separately in sensitivity analyses. Finally, self-collection of specimens and delays in shipments could reduce sensitivity of virus detection by PCR (10); if this disproportionately affected those who received the vaccine (e.g., because of possible vaccine attenuation of virus shedding), vaccine effectiveness would be overestimated.


This study seems nothing more like a PR stunt to encourage more front line workers to get vaccinated.

 

[ericstratton-rushchairman]

You forgot to take into account "the variants" in your equation. Let me correct it for you. The math might be too much and too difficult for many to understand.

Your Equation:
0.666 = (120/320) + (vac/320) - (120/320)*(vac/320)
vac = 149, and adding back the zeroes I cancelled out = we need 149,000,000 vaccinated people.

Including 'The Variants":
149,000,000 x Variant Factor = Sometime in 2022.


You also did not factor in that we don't know if the vaccine will last longer than 6 months nor if you have had the Covid if your immunity will last. So again, i will update my equation.


Including 'The Variants" and unknown length of immunity:
149,000,000 x Variant Factor x Unknown Immunity Length = Nobody knows so just accept what we tell you and move along.

 

[Ski]

That implies an initial R0 of about 4. I haven't seen any estimates as high as that. Most estimates are more like 3.0, and we need to take into account those already infected.

We have 31,000,000 confirmed cases so far in USA.

Obviously, for each confirmed case, there are many unconfirmed cases.

On January 15th, CDC estimated the total number of infected as 83.1 million. So, now it's at least 120 million (with no idea why they haven't updated their estimate because it would be very easy to do so).

There will be some overlap between vaccinated and already infected, so we can't double count those.

So, P(Infected OR Vaccinated) = P(inf) + P(vac) - P(inf and vac) = P(inf) + P(vac) - P(inf)*P(vac).

We have P(inf) = 120,000,000 / 320,000,000 or (120/320) and P(vac) = (vac/320).

Given R0 of 3, for the infection to drop off, we need the percent immune to be at 67%, which can be arrived at by either infection or recovery.

Solving the equation above, we have:

0.666 = (120/320) + (vac/320) - (120/320)*(vac/320)
vac = 149, and adding back the zeroes I cancelled out = we need 149,000,000 vaccinated people.

If the vast majority are of the two shot variety, we need 300,000,000 shots delivered.

From Cletus information, we are halfway there, looks like, at 3M per day, we need 50 more days, but that doesn't take into account those who will become infected over the next 30 days.

Sounds like early May and the thing will completely collapse. No later than end of May.

Close enough.

As to unconfirmed cases, I volunteered for a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Serosurvey and Blood Sampling Study last year. While I was not selected to participate, this morning they sent me an update of their preliminary, non-peer reviewed results:

Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States

Abstract

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954 ). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.

 

[TheBigUglies]

I‘ll just stay in the dark corner of my basement. I’m wearing three masks, have garlic around my neck, and am clutching rosary beads. Hopefully that’s enough.

Don't forget the holy water!! ✝☢

 

[katchthis]

One shot of Moderna and Pfizer is pretty solid stuff after two weeks.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2036242

Table 1. Efficacy of BNT162b2 against Covid-19 According to Analysis Period.

�����

​	no. of cases​	​
Analysis Period​	Vaccine (N=21,669)​	Placebo (N=21,686)​	Vaccine Efficacy, % (95% CI)*​
After dose 1 to before dose 2 (per Polack et al.1)​	39​	82​	52.4 (29.5–68.4)​
Beginning 7 days after dose 1 to before dose 2 (derived†)‡​	18​	57​	68.5 (46.5–81.5)​
Beginning 14 days after dose 1 to before dose 2 (derived†)§​	2​	27​	92.6 (69.0–98.3)​
≥7 Days after dose 2 (per Polack et al.1)​	9​	172​	94.8 (89.8–97.6)​
* The derived vaccine efficacies were calculated as 100×(1−[risk among vaccinated patients/risk among unvaccinated patients]), on the basis of those remaining at risk according to the specified analysis period. The vaccine efficacies reported by Polack et al. were calculated as 100×(1−IRR), where IRR is the calculated ratio of confirmed cases of Covid-19 illness per 1000 person-years of follow-up in the active vaccine group to the corresponding illness rate in the placebo group.
† The values were derived with the data reported by the manufacturer in Figure 13 of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee briefing document.2
‡ Before day 7, a total of 21 cases had accrued in the vaccine group and 25 cases in the placebo group.
§ Before day 14, a total of 37 cases had accrued in the vaccine group and 55 cases in the placebo group.

 

[The Spin Meister]

As to unconfirmed cases, I volunteered for a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Serosurvey and Blood Sampling Study last year. While I was not selected to participate, this morning they sent me an update of their preliminary, non-peer reviewed results:

Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States

Abstract

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954 ). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.

Interesting. Thought number would be higher. But that was from May-July so it is already old and it may be double that or higher by now.

 

[KanePoster]

As to unconfirmed cases, I volunteered for a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Serosurvey and Blood Sampling Study last year. While I was not selected to participate, this morning they sent me an update of their preliminary, non-peer reviewed results:

Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States

Abstract

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954 ). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.

So, at that time, their multiplier was 4.80x the number of diagnosed cases. So, if there were 100,000 diagnosed cases at that time, they were saying that there were actually 480,000 infections.

Now it is completely improper to assume the 4.8 number is a constant, but I'm going to do it anyway - we have 31,264,000 cases confirmed today x 4.8 = 150,000,000 total infections. That's more or less consistent with the number I outlined above, but in fact, they are SWAGs.

 

[Cletus11]

So, at that time, their multiplier was 4.80x the number of diagnosed cases. So, if there were 100,000 diagnosed cases at that time, they were saying that there were actually 480,000 infections.

Now it is completely improper to assume the 4.8 number is a constant, but I'm going to do it anyway - we have 31,264,000 cases confirmed today x 4.8 = 150,000,000 total infections. That's more or less consistent with the number I outlined above, but in fact, they are SWAGs.

If I were to guess, I would say in the 85-95M range. I think that most people that are getting it this calender year 2021 have gotten tested. We know last March-May it was nearly impossible to test. Over the summer got better. In Fall last year I think most got tested. So mabye about 30% of the population has been testd.

 

[interrobang]

The CDC issued relaxed domestic travel guidance for those vaccinated today.

But the CDC director then said we still shouldn't travel

 

[scottpsurules]

Lots of good conversation on one or two jabs. Got me thinking, knowing there already have been or will be some whack jobs, that get 5...10...15....doses, maybe mixing of mfg, wonder how they will fare?

 

[Agoodnap]

I'm calling on the mods to delete only YOUR post, not mine. 😂 😂 😂

I'm sticking STRICTLY to the science and math, though that did not save "Total deaths" from deletion.

I missed your total deaths post. Would you mind posting it on the test board for those of us who missed it the first time around?

 

[KanePoster]

I missed your total deaths post. Would you mind posting it on the test board for those of us who missed it the first time around?

OK, it's posted on the test board.

 

[RGWhirly]

I was watching a video today that felt strongly if the two two shot vaccines would have had trials during same conditions and timeline that their numbers would be lower and if J&J was under same timeline and conditions (earlier), J&J numbers would be higher.

The biggest takeaway was that for all three during their trials was that no one that had vaccine and got Covid after had to go to hospital or died.

🤷‍♂️

 

[Cletus11]

3.4M shots yesterday so total up to 153.63M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.90M. 76.6% of shots administered is the national average, 30.0% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 16.9% fully vaccinated.
So far, 99.6 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 56.1 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 200.56M compared to yesterday 195.6M. So 4.96M doses delivered yesterday, 20.96M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

76,786 positives reported yesterday compared to 67,755 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 66,814

Fatality was 952 compared to 1115 yesterday and 1238 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 902.

So good news on the vaccine front as 3.4M is a big number and now up to a 7-day rolling average of 2.9M per day. Hit the 200M doses delivered milestone, although this week was supposed to be 30M doses due to the 10M+ J&J going out which I don't see being hit so not sure what is going on there as the issue with the screw up in one of the facilities was not supposed to effect the doses that were going out but maybe they are holding them back out of caution.

Note the fatality chart is back on the move down and we should see less than 900 for the first time since November 2nd.

Also starting to see some articles on Novavax vaccine popping up. They apparently finished their trial overseas and expect authorization in UK sometime soon. USA trials are done and they are compiling the data which looks good. But most likely USA application and go ahead would not occur to mid May timeframe if I were to guess.

4.0M shots yesterday so total up to 157.60M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.99M. 77.0% of shots administered is the national average, 30.7% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 17.5% fully vaccinated.
So far, 102.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 58.0 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 204.68M compared to yesterday 200.56M. So 4.12M doses delivered yesterday, 25.08M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

70,024 positives reported yesterday compared to 77,272 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 65,770

Fatality was 1001 compared to 952 yesterday and 1283 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 862.

Hospitalizations are at 33,698 which has basically been flatlined at +/- that value since March 18th. So hospitalizations are not going down.

So just a WOW day on the vaccine front, hit 4M vaccinations in one day plus we are now at 2.99M on the 7 day average and went over the 100M Americans with at least one dose. I will say that I did not think we would get to 3M that fast but happy we did. I think opening up to more people is the reason. As noted, I got Pfizer shot #1 last Saturday at a Walgreens after calling around some and finding it. I had my name in the state registry as well. So yesterday afternoon I get an email from the state registry that I am now eligible and can clink on the link to the local mass vaccination site and schedule a shot, the email went on to say appointments are available TODAY. So literally the day I become eligible I could have signed up to get a shot a couple of hours later. I am thinking 100M vaccines administered in the month of April might be a reachable goal.

Some other good news on the vaccine front Moderna was authorized by FDA to fill the bottles up from 11 doses to 13-15 doses per bottle (depends on the syringe being used). This is good news as Moderna said their main bottleneck is filling bottles (they said they have plenty of vaccine) such that with being able to increase the doses per bottle (they are using the same bottle, just filling it to the brim now) they will be able to instantly ship out more doses.

Note the daily positive number went down today week over week. I have a filling that we might see that 'spike' level off quicker than I thought last week. Even Fauci said that the vaccine rate is most likely going to make any 4th spike improbable.

Another note...Just this Monday the 7 day fatality was 998, 5 days later it is down to 14% to 862. Last's week anomaly of no movement appears to be gone and back to daily decreases on the fatality.

 

[roswelllion]

If I were to guess, I would say in the 85-95M range. I think that most people that are getting it this calender year 2021 have gotten tested. We know last March-May it was nearly impossible to test. Over the summer got better. In Fall last year I think most got tested. So maybe about 30% of the population has been tested.

As I have said repeatedly if you have had COVID it has become increasingly clear the reinfection rate is extremely small. [at least up until now] Had we had a way to identify these folks and at least deferred them until June we could literally be almost completely through vaccinations by now. [add 90 million to todays numbers] At the very least we DO KNOW who has tested positive. Put them at the end of the line and that is 30 million more vaccines.

Having said that with amount of cheating [line cutting] going on and the very average [being kind] response on giving the vaccines something like that would have been very difficult.

** sidenote** I would bet if they had a law that said every state and federal elected employee can't get the vaccine until at least 75% of those who want the shot and are eligible get it [in your state or nationally] they might have found a way.

 

[sluggo72]

Great news if it holds!!!

It didn’t I swear they said that on Monday reversed it by Friday

 

[Cletus11]

4.0M shots yesterday so total up to 157.60M with the 7 day rolling average at 2.99M. 77.0% of shots administered is the national average, 30.7% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 17.5% fully vaccinated.
So far, 102.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 58.0 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 204.68M compared to yesterday 200.56M. So 4.12M doses delivered yesterday, 25.08M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

70,024 positives reported yesterday compared to 77,272 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 65,770

Fatality was 1001 compared to 952 yesterday and 1283 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 862.

Hospitalizations are at 33,698 which has basically been flatlined at +/- that value since March 18th. So hospitalizations are not going down.

So just a WOW day on the vaccine front, hit 4M vaccinations in one day plus we are now at 2.99M on the 7 day average and went over the 100M Americans with at least one dose. I will say that I did not think we would get to 3M that fast but happy we did. I think opening up to more people is the reason. As noted, I got Pfizer shot #1 last Saturday at a Walgreens after calling around some and finding it. I had my name in the state registry as well. So yesterday afternoon I get an email from the state registry that I am now eligible and can clink on the link to the local mass vaccination site and schedule a shot, the email went on to say appointments are available TODAY. So literally the day I become eligible I could have signed up to get a shot a couple of hours later. I am thinking 100M vaccines administered in the month of April might be a reachable goal.

Some other good news on the vaccine front Moderna was authorized by FDA to fill the bottles up from 11 doses to 13-15 doses per bottle (depends on the syringe being used). This is good news as Moderna said their main bottleneck is filling bottles (they said they have plenty of vaccine) such that with being able to increase the doses per bottle (they are using the same bottle, just filling it to the brim now) they will be able to instantly ship out more doses.

Note the daily positive number went down today week over week. I have a filling that we might see that 'spike' level off quicker than I thought last week. Even Fauci said that the vaccine rate is most likely going to make any 4th spike improbable.

Another note...Just this Monday the 7 day fatality was 998, 5 days later it is down to 14% to 862. Last's week anomaly of no movement appears to be gone and back to daily decreases on the fatality.

4.1M shots yesterday so total up to 161.688M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.07M. 77.8% of shots administered is the national average, 31.4% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 18.0% fully vaccinated.
So far, 104.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 59.9 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 207.82M compared to yesterday 204.68M. So 3.14M doses delivered yesterday, 28.22M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

66,154 positives reported yesterday compared to68,176 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 65,624

Fatality was 807 compared to 1001 yesterday and 824 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 873.

Not sure if correct but something still crazy going on in Michigan. Today's daily positive was 9292, that is the third highest total ever for the state. Their 7 day average on February 20 was 1045 and it is now 6456. that is a 600%+ rise in 6+ weeks. Anybody from Michigan can confirm it is that crazy up there right now? A few other states are on slight rises right now, but Michigan is almost mainly responsible for the large increase in daily positives. Simple math, they are up 5000+ cases per day so take that away and the daily positive is at 61,000 and not many people are going to be complaining about going from 56,000 to 61,000 over a few week period. Michigan literally accounting for more than 50% of this current rise in daily cases.

 

[Cletus11]

Sunday Morning Editorial:

All about the vaccines this week. Several psychological milestones hit this week. Over 200M doses of vaccine delivered in total. Over 100M people with at least one shot of vaccine. Over 40% of the adult population (40.4% to be exact) with at least one shot. Over 28M doses (4M per day average) delivered for the first time in a week. Over 4M doses administered in one day for the first time ever and did it in back to back days. Over 3M (3.07M to be exact) for the first time ever on the 7 day rolling average of vaccines administered daily. So just some big numbers there in a lot of categories.

Some quick math. Currently at 104M with at least one dose, 26 more days to report in April at a rate of 3M+ per day in vaccines so that is at least 80M more vaccines administered of which about 48-50M will be new people. So add that to the 104M and looking at 150M+ by end of April. So that gets up to 60% of the adult population with at least one dose by end of month. Assuming 100M doses in May (3.3M per day so that is probably conservative) that is another 60M+ first doses so will be in the 210M+ by end of May or 85% of population which as we know that about 15% of population will not get it, means by end of May we will be vaccinated out as an adult population for those that want it. June will be about 2nd doses for the May vaccinated and some general small amount of first time people that come around.

I am very interested to see how the hospital and fatality charts progress the rest of the month. With the current rate of vaccinations they should be going down and yet they appear to not be reacting the same as they did all of March. In addition, we should be pushing into herd immunity in April as we rise above the 50% of people that have been vaccinated, which in combination with existing antibody community from previous infection or natural immunity should start to drive the daily positives down. In the next couple of weeks we should be seeing all three major metrics (fatality, hospitalization, and daily cases) really start to drop again. If they don't, we have to go back to validity of the data as the main reason.

 

[KCLion]

I’ll add an interesting tidbit - as a transplant recipient (double lung 2014) I have received both shots (Moderna) as of 3/13.

Given that the vaccines were never tested on transplant recipients, there was some concern as to what to expect. As such, I volunteered to be part of a Study conducted by Johns Hopkins in which they sent individuals self blood draw kits to determine antibody production in solid organ transplant recipients as follows:

1 - pre first shot to establish baseline
2 - two weeks post 1st shot
3 - one month post 2nd shot
4 - three months post 2nd shot
5 - six months post 2nd shot
6 - one year post 2nd shot

On Friday I received my results post 1st shot (sorry for formatting:

Jacqueline Garonzik Wang, MD, PhD
Associate Professor of Surgery
Program Director, Abdominal Transplant Surgery Fellowship Division of Transplantation Surgery
720 Rutland Avenue, Ross 771D
Baltimore, MD 21205
(443) 873-3522 (study hotline)
covidtransplant@jhmi.edu www.hopkinsmedicine.org/transplant
Hello,
Thank you for participating in our research study: COVID-19 Antibody Testing of Recipients of Solid Organ Transplants (IRB00248540).
As you may recall, you sent us a blood sample to be tested for antibodies to the virus that causes COVID-19.
Your antibody test result was: negative.
A negative test means that your body has not generated antibodies or does not currently contain antibodies.
The testing is not 100% perfect and may be falsely negative even if you have had the infection. We do not know yet if all people who have had a COVID-19 vaccine develop antibodies. Scientists are working to understand this, and your participation in this research study may help us answer this question.
We encourage you to continue to take steps follow your doctor's advice to protect yourself and others.
Should have any further questions about your results, contact us at transplantvaccine@jhmi.edu or call: (443) 840-8112.
Sincerely,
Jacqueline Garonzik Wang, M.D., Ph.D.

For those who may be interested, here is the publication of the complete set of initial results following first shots:

We hope everyone who has sent us blood samples has received their individual results and we would now like to share with you our first wave of findings which has been under publication embargo, but just this morning, they were published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Here is the link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777685

 

[interrobang]

I thought I read somewhere that the first shot didn't do much for transplant recipients but the 2nd shot did.

 

[The Spin Meister]

I’ll add an interesting tidbit - as a transplant recipient (double lung 2014) I have received both shots (Moderna) as of 3/13.

Given that the vaccines were never tested on transplant recipients, there was some concern as to what to expect. As such, I volunteered to be part of a Study conducted by Johns Hopkins in which they sent individuals self blood draw kits to determine antibody production in solid organ transplant recipients as follows:

1 - pre first shot to establish baseline
2 - two weeks post 1st shot
3 - one month post 2nd shot
4 - three months post 2nd shot
5 - six months post 2nd shot
6 - one year post 2nd shot

On Friday I received my results post 1st shot (sorry for formatting:

Jacqueline Garonzik Wang, MD, PhD
Associate Professor of Surgery
Program Director, Abdominal Transplant Surgery Fellowship Division of Transplantation Surgery
720 Rutland Avenue, Ross 771D
Baltimore, MD 21205
(443) 873-3522 (study hotline)
covidtransplant@jhmi.edu www.hopkinsmedicine.org/transplant
Hello,
Thank you for participating in our research study: COVID-19 Antibody Testing of Recipients of Solid Organ Transplants (IRB00248540).
As you may recall, you sent us a blood sample to be tested for antibodies to the virus that causes COVID-19.
Your antibody test result was: negative.
A negative test means that your body has not generated antibodies or does not currently contain antibodies.
The testing is not 100% perfect and may be falsely negative even if you have had the infection. We do not know yet if all people who have had a COVID-19 vaccine develop antibodies. Scientists are working to understand this, and your participation in this research study may help us answer this question.
We encourage you to continue to take steps follow your doctor's advice to protect yourself and others.
Should have any further questions about your results, contact us at transplantvaccine@jhmi.edu or call: (443) 840-8112.
Sincerely,
Jacqueline Garonzik Wang, M.D., Ph.D.

For those who may be interested, here is the publication of the complete set of initial results following first shots:

We hope everyone who has sent us blood samples has received their individual results and we would now like to share with you our first wave of findings which has been under publication embargo, but just this morning, they were published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Here is the link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777685

Was wondering about you. I had seen some reports that experts were recommending that people with solid organ transplants get vaccinated and was going to post a link to them. You had previously said that you don’t get most vaccines because of the anti rejection medications you are on.

Thanks for posting .

 

[KCLion]

Was wondering about you. I had seen some reports that experts were recommending that people with solid organ transplants get vaccinated and was going to post a link to them. You had previously said that you don’t get most vaccines because of the anti rejection medications you are on.

Thanks for posting .

i get all vaccines that are not live viruses e.g. the older shingles vaccine was considered a no-no to myself and anyone close to me. Shingrix has been blessing for my wife to be protected.

 

[KCLion]

I thought I read somewhere that the first shot didn't do much for transplant recipients but the 2nd shot did.

I will let you know when my results are back a couple of weeks from now. A lot depends on the vaccine itself, specific immunosuppressant meds and use of anti–metabolite maintenance or not.

 

[Cletus11]

4.1M shots yesterday so total up to 161.688M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.07M. 77.8% of shots administered is the national average, 31.4% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 18.0% fully vaccinated.
So far, 104.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 59.9 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 207.82M compared to yesterday 204.68M. So 3.14M doses delivered yesterday, 28.22M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

66,154 positives reported yesterday compared to68,176 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 65,624

Fatality was 807 compared to 1001 yesterday and 824 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 873.

Not sure if correct but something still crazy going on in Michigan. Today's daily positive was 9292, that is the third highest total ever for the state. Their 7 day average on February 20 was 1045 and it is now 6456. that is a 600%+ rise in 6+ weeks. Anybody from Michigan can confirm it is that crazy up there right now? A few other states are on slight rises right now, but Michigan is almost mainly responsible for the large increase in daily positives. Simple math, they are up 5000+ cases per day so take that away and the daily positive is at 61,000 and not many people are going to be complaining about going from 56,000 to 61,000 over a few week period. Michigan literally accounting for more than 50% of this current rise in daily cases.

3.4M shots yesterday so total up to 165.053M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.08M. 79.4% of shots administered is the national average, 32.0% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 18.5% fully vaccinated.
So far, 106.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 61.4 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 207.82M compared to yesterday 207.82M. So 0.0M doses delivered yesterday, 28.22M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

36,983 positives reported yesterday compared to 52,283 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 63,471

Fatality was 270 compared to 807 yesterday and 542 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 833.

So the daily positive and fatality numbers are off as it appears many states did not report yesterday. So expect the new couple of days to be higher as those states report.

 

[sgw107]

3.4M shots yesterday so total up to 165.053M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.08M. 79.4% of shots administered is the national average, 32.0% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 18.5% fully vaccinated.
So far, 106.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 61.4 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 207.82M compared to yesterday 207.82M. So 0.0M doses delivered yesterday, 28.22M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

36,983 positives reported yesterday compared to 52,283 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 63,471

Fatality was 270 compared to 807 yesterday and 542 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 833.

So the daily positive and fatality numbers are off as it appears many states did not report yesterday. So expect the new couple of days to be higher as those states report.

Is it me or is the 3.4 million good considering yesterday was easter? Or are they reporting numbers from the day before? Also what does the 79.4 percent of shots administered is the national average mean? Thanks

 

[Cletus11]

Is it me or is the 3.4 million good considering yesterday was easter? Or are they reporting numbers from the day before? Also what does the 79.4 percent of shots administered is the national average mean? Thanks

yes 3.4M is good, it was slightly more than last Sunday as you typically look at how the number reported compares to last week same day versus the day before as reporting tends to differ from state to state on how they report and on which day.

79.4% of shot administered means that of the vaccines distributed to the states, they have given out 79.4% percent of them. So you can see they have delivered 207M vaccines to states but only 165M shot have been given so far to people. So basically the states have 40M shots currently in storage as second doses. So you can see those percentages by state to figure out which states are doing the best at passing out the vaccines versus which states are not so good.

 

[Cletus11]

3.4M shots yesterday so total up to 165.053M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.08M. 79.4% of shots administered is the national average, 32.0% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 18.5% fully vaccinated.
So far, 106.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 61.4 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 207.82M compared to yesterday 207.82M. So 0.0M doses delivered yesterday, 28.22M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

36,983 positives reported yesterday compared to 52,283 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 63,471

Fatality was 270 compared to 807 yesterday and 542 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 833.

So the daily positive and fatality numbers are off as it appears many states did not report yesterday. So expect the new couple of days to be higher as those states report.

2.1M shots yesterday so total up to 167.187M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.05M. 80.4% of shots administered is the national average, 32.4% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 18.8% fully vaccinated.
So far, 108.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 62.4 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 207.82M compared to yesterday 207.82M. So 0.0M doses delivered yesterday, 0.0M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 28.22M, 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

56,742 positives reported yesterday compared to 60,115 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 65,554

Fatality was 500 compared to 270 yesterday and 676 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 808.

I suspect that we are still missing some data from the Holiday weekend. There was some data that was increased for Sunday's numbers. Still a couple of states that didn't report yet. So by tomorrow's reporting day I think all of that should be finally out there.

 

[Nittany Security2]

2.1M shots seems kinda low or did I miss something?

 

[Cletus11]

2.1M shots seems kinda low or did I miss something?

yeah, it was low. Last week it was 2.4M on Tuesday reporting (Monday shots). but Monday & Tuesday reporting are always on the low side. Probably some Easter carryover there also.

 

[Cletus11]

2.1M shots yesterday so total up to 167.187M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.05M. 80.4% of shots administered is the national average, 32.4% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 18.8% fully vaccinated.
So far, 108.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 62.4 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 207.82M compared to yesterday 207.82M. So 0.0M doses delivered yesterday, 0.0M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 28.22M, 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

56,742 positives reported yesterday compared to 60,115 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 65,554

Fatality was 500 compared to 270 yesterday and 676 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 808.

I suspect that we are still missing some data from the Holiday weekend. There was some data that was increased for Sunday's numbers. Still a couple of states that didn't report yet. So by tomorrow's reporting day I think all of that should be finally out there.

1.4M shots yesterday so total up to 168.592M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.00M. 76.9% of shots administered is the national average, 32.6% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 19.0% fully vaccinated.
So far, 108.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 63.0 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 219.235M compared to yesterday 207.82M. So 11.4M doses delivered yesterday, 11.4M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 28.22M, 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

62,283 positives reported yesterday compared to 63,270 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 65,582

Fatality was 906 compared to 500 yesterday and 891week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 820.

No idea on the vaccine number being so low yesterday. There wasn't a single day that low since February so I have to believe another reporting anomaly due to timing like we had a few weeks ago.

The big news yesterday is the admin coming out and saying that everybody should be eligible for the vaccine on April 19. So two weeks in advance of the May 1 date which was out there from a month ago. This is due to the large amount of supply on the vaccine front with last week's 28M+ and another 30M+ expected to be delivered this week. I actually wish they would have moved it up to April 12th as I think right now some of the reason for the lower vaccine totals the last few days is that there are just not enough people eligible in some locations and appointments are going unfilled. I know here in NJ, the local mass vacc center has a ton of open appointments late last week and this week that they cannot fill.

Other good news is I think we are seeing the daily positive chart now flatten out. It has been flatlined on the 7-day average for a week now. NY and NJ which were two big states on the rise have now seen a decrease over the last few days, Florida has flatlined and no longer rising. It is really Michigan now as the only state still on the rise. So hopefully we should see this week that daily positive start to decline again.

 

[CentexLion]

Didn’t expect this.

Newsroom

www.doh.wa.gov

Why not? .01% got Covid after their vaccine regiment was completed. That is a lot lower than I figured it would be. That is actually a great number if it is accurate (unless you one of the 102 that got Covid)

 

[The Spin Meister]

yeah, it was low. Last week it was 2.4M on Tuesday reporting (Monday shots). but Monday & Tuesday reporting are always on the low side. Probably some Easter carryover there also.

Yeah, bet a lot people wanted to wait until after Easter as no one wanted to have side affects over the holiday period. Just like how people stayed away during the Christmas/New Years period.

 

[Cletus11]

1.4M shots yesterday so total up to 168.592M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.00M. 76.9% of shots administered is the national average, 32.6% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 19.0% fully vaccinated.
So far, 108.0 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 63.0 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 219.235M compared to yesterday 207.82M. So 11.4M doses delivered yesterday, 11.4M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 28.22M, 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

62,283 positives reported yesterday compared to 63,270 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 65,582

Fatality was 906 compared to 500 yesterday and 891week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 820.

No idea on the vaccine number being so low yesterday. There wasn't a single day that low since February so I have to believe another reporting anomaly due to timing like we had a few weeks ago.

The big news yesterday is the admin coming out and saying that everybody should be eligible for the vaccine on April 19. So two weeks in advance of the May 1 date which was out there from a month ago. This is due to the large amount of supply on the vaccine front with last week's 28M+ and another 30M+ expected to be delivered this week. I actually wish they would have moved it up to April 12th as I think right now some of the reason for the lower vaccine totals the last few days is that there are just not enough people eligible in some locations and appointments are going unfilled. I know here in NJ, the local mass vacc center has a ton of open appointments late last week and this week that they cannot fill.

Other good news is I think we are seeing the daily positive chart now flatten out. It has been flatlined on the 7-day average for a week now. NY and NJ which were two big states on the rise have now seen a decrease over the last few days, Florida has flatlined and no longer rising. It is really Michigan now as the only state still on the rise. So hopefully we should see this week that daily positive start to decline again.

2.9M shots yesterday so total up to 171.476M with the 7 day rolling average at 3.03M. 76.1% of shots administered is the national average, 33.1% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 19.4% fully vaccinated.
So far, 110 million Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine. At least 64.4 million people have completed a vaccination regimen.

Doses delivered is 225.33M compared to yesterday 219.235M. So 6.1M doses delivered yesterday, 17.5M doses delivered for the week. Previous week totals for doses delivered is 28.22M, 23.8, 21.1M, 20.0M, 19.7M,21.2M, 5.1M, 9.96M and , 9.4M.

75,183 positives reported yesterday compared to 70,368 week over week. 7-day rolling average is at 66,271

Fatality was 873 compared to 906 yesterday and 1140 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 771.

So at least the vaccine number came back up, I feared we might dip back below the 3M per day rolling average but hopefully whatever that blip was on Monday/Tuesday is gone. As there is now zero shortage of vaccines out there with 17M+ doses delivered already this week.

Nice to see that fatality number start to go back down again. Lowest that has been since late October of last year.

Michigan just completely out of control, 9000+ daily positive yesterday so the 7 day average is now over 7000 per day. 6 weeks ago they were at 1000 per day.

 

[BobPSU92]

Michigan ranks highest in COVID-19 hospitalizations amid surge as model predicts further worsening

Michigan's latest week-over-week COVID-19 hospitalization increase was the largest since the spring 2020 surge.

www.mlive.com

 

[Cletus11]

Michigan ranks highest in COVID-19 hospitalizations amid surge as model predicts further worsening

Michigan's latest week-over-week COVID-19 hospitalization increase was the largest since the spring 2020 surge.

www.mlive.com

I finally heard somebody on a talk show the other day mention that we should be sending extra vaccine and resources to Michigan and NYC. She said it is very common in outbreaks in Africa and Asia that when they occur, you send a vaccine to that local area and try to 'ring' the outbreak. SHe doesn't understand why that is not being done here and those areas having extended vaccination hours at mass vac sites, bring in more nurses from out of state to administer the vaccines, etc...

 

[BobPSU92]

I finally heard somebody on a talk show the other day mention that we should be sending extra vaccine and resources to Michigan and NYC. She said it is very common in outbreaks in Africa and Asia that when they occur, you send a vaccine to that local area and try to 'ring' the outbreak. SHe doesn't understand why that is not being done here and those areas having extended vaccination hours at mass vac sites, bring in more nurses from out of state to administer the vaccines, etc...

That would make sense.

Does the Red Cross get involved? Could they bring states together to support one another?

 

[MJG-90]

64 million fully vaccinated leaves about 200 million adults left to vaccinate. If we can get to 4 million doses per day, everyone could be done in under 100 days. That assumes half are first doses and half are second doses. Then do some adjustments for single dose vaccines. That’s right around the 4th of July.

Then get ready for kids and then fall boosters (which hopefully get handed out with flu shots). I’m feeling way more positive that a year ago.

 

[BobPSU92]

64 million fully vaccinated leaves about 200 million adults left to vaccinate. If we can get to 4 million doses per day, everyone could be done in under 100 days. That assumes half are first doses and half are second doses. Then do some adjustments for single dose vaccines. That’s right around the 4th of July.

Then get ready for kids and then fall boosters (which hopefully get handed out with flu shots). I’m feeling way more positive that a year ago.

But, but, but, VARIANTS. . But, but, but, 0.02% of the vaccinated get the COVID. . There is no room for optimism.

STAY. HOME.

 

[okinburg1]

Cannot for the life of me even guess WTF is going on in Meatchicken. More than 600% increase in positives compared to February?!? Highest percentage of hospital beds in the country being used for covid patients?!?
The population density there is nowhere close to NYC or other major metropolitan areas; not a spring break destination; didn't host a series of concerts/sporting events/etc that could have been superspreader events.
Just completely leaves me shaking my head. Come on AKB, someone here must have the answer.

 

[BobPSU92]

Cannot for the life of me even guess WTF is going on in Meatchicken. More than 600% increase in positives compared to February?!? Highest percentage of hospital beds in the country being used for covid patients?!?
The population density there is nowhere close to NYC or other major metropolitan areas; not a spring break destination; didn't host a series of concerts/sporting events/etc that could have been superspreader events.
Just completely leaves me shaking my head. Come on AKB, someone here must have the answer.

Probably hairball walking around with no shirt.