Happy Valley Insider - Penn State opens as a double-digit favorite over Illinois
Oddsmakers like Penn State's chances against Illinois next week.
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Football Penn State opens as a double-digit favorite over Illinois
- Thread starter Dylan Callaghan-Croley
- Start date
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I'm concerned with the DL and the inside running game.
Despite that being true in the past we did a better job last year. I'd bet on Penn State in this one even with the early start on Saturday.
I'm not saying there's not logic with this but we truly haven't seen it in 2 games. Not even a glimpse. Just people being concerned so they think it's an issue.
Kansas dominated Illinois. We shouldn't have an issue.
What is that supposed to even mean? You really think it's profitable to blindly bet road favorites?
I think the boys in blue are right on the edge of elite so I expect a blow out. That's what an elite team is supposed to do at least.
Illinois struggled to beat Toledo and they looked horrible in the first half against Kansas. I didn't see the second half of that game but apparently Illinois played better.
15 sounds reasonable.
It's game 3 and we should be well settled in. I look for our RB's to break a handful of long gainers/TDs. If we are good as we hope/expect, we should win by 3 scores. The defense will be tighter and force 2 or 3 turnovers. Give the points.
Blindly betting road favorites wouldn't work for anyone (well, except for whoever is booking the bets).
Where did I say that i bet them all. I'm very selective, but i always take the points.
Watched a bit of Ill.-Kansas. The game was pretty much over by halftime. Illinois defense played tentatively and doesn't seem to have a lot of playmakers; they look young. KS has a very good run-pass QB so it could be very different for PSU but PSU also has speed at running back and receiver that Kansas doesn't have.
On the other side of the ball - kinda hard to judge IL offense since they were in a hole so fast they probably weren't running their normal offensive mix, Their QB throws accurately and has kind of deceptive speed for a big guy. At one point their he stepped up from a collapsing pocket and ran 70 yards for a TD. Couldn't get much feel for their running back, but he's a new starter (last year's IL tailback is in the NFL). Anyway the KS D-line was very active and Ill O-line didn't look good.
So anyway I wouldn't argue with the point spread. This is not the team IL had last year. Still, if the power mysteriously goes out at PSU's hotel and the players have to eat cold pizza for breakfast....
Also, I kinda wonder, will Bielema try that crazy 7 (or was it 9) O-linemen formation they used 2 years ago to eat the clock? Hopefully PSU will be more ready for it this time.
On the other side of the ball - kinda hard to judge IL offense since they were in a hole so fast they probably weren't running their normal offensive mix, Their QB throws accurately and has kind of deceptive speed for a big guy. At one point their he stepped up from a collapsing pocket and ran 70 yards for a TD. Couldn't get much feel for their running back, but he's a new starter (last year's IL tailback is in the NFL). Anyway the KS D-line was very active and Ill O-line didn't look good.
So anyway I wouldn't argue with the point spread. This is not the team IL had last year. Still, if the power mysteriously goes out at PSU's hotel and the players have to eat cold pizza for breakfast....
Also, I kinda wonder, will Bielema try that crazy 7 (or was it 9) O-linemen formation they used 2 years ago to eat the clock? Hopefully PSU will be more ready for it this time.
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How about this for a side bet?
Bielema -- over/under 350#?
Bielema -- over/under 350#?
I expect Illinois to use the 2021 recipe. Heavy jumbo sets and just gash the penn state DL all day. Psu will win but Illinois could keep it close by running the ball, extending drives and keep our offense on the sideline
that worked when we had serious offensive line problems and couldn't run the ball. That's not an issue now.
ILL played better but Kansas played far more defensively protecting a 21 point lead.
If I was an ILL fan, I'd be concerned about Altmyer. He attempted 29 passes and 13 carries. In those, he accounted for 272 of their 341 total yards. he was a four-star kid who went to Mississippi and transferred to Ill. He is listed at 6-2 200 but doesn't look that big. Point is, he took a pounding. They both had two turnovers with Altmyer throwing two picks.
Worse, it looked like they were physically inferior. That may have been due to the fact that they got down so fast that Kansas no longer cared about their run game. The real problem is ILLs defense. They gave up over 500 yards to Kansas.
Now, Kansas is in their second or third year with Lance Leipold. Lance coached Wisconsin Whitewater to a couple of national championships finishing with an overall record of 109-6. he took a wretched MAC Buffalo program for six years and took them to three bowl games his last three years. they are improving, fast, and it didn't look like ILL was prepared.
Altmyer's stats are very good both passing and running EXCEPT for 3 INTs. 68.5% completions, 6.8 yds per run. ILL is averaging 27 pts per game but they are losing because of TOs and weak defense.
Sounds like we win the game if we win turnovers. It will be interesting.
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He's a pretty good QB. A very scrappy guy who can pass and run but neither is exceptional, IMHO. But they were down by more than one score to both Toledo and Kansas. Both of these teams are good. Toledo won the MAC last year going away (the QB of their opponent got hurt before the championship game) and IIRC they are returning something like 18 of their 22 starters. Kansas is up and coming.
they will not be a pushover but their defense has been poor and the offense is just OK. If we play to our potential it shouldn't be close. I hope CJF plays the team the 8 OT loss to them. I am not sure how many players are left that played in that game.
Altmyer's stats are very good both passing and running EXCEPT for turnovers. It will be interesting
Illinois doesn't have the depth the reload every year. Heck, they would have been a sub .500 team last year if you put them in the East. They get their respect here for 2 things:
1. '21 win in 9OTs
2. Probably should have upset Michigan last year
They better be doing the rain dance. They can't keep up for 4 quarters and this year they have started games out slow.
Illinois had 3 defensive backs taken in rounds 1-3 of the NFL 2023 draft:
- Devon Witherspoon 5th overall to Seattle
- Jartavious Martin 47th overall to Washington
- Sydney Brown 66th overall to Eagles
I didn't know that. Maybe that is why their front seven are so highly regarded coming into the season; they benefited by having a fantastic defensive backfield. The defense has not done good at all this year. They have given up:
- 34 points, 277 yards passing and 262 rushing against Kansas
- 28 points, 211 yards passing and 163 rushing against Toledo
first road game start for Allar. He seems very cool and unflappable but until you do it, you haven't done it. Unless ILL vastly improves and PSU phones it in, this should be a solid win.
I agree. Unless Allar just has a very bad game (turnovers, etc) and we have a bunch of red zone turnovers, not sure how we lose. Well I guess that and everyone's worst fears about the middle of our defense are much worse than anyone imagined and Illinois is able to take advantage.
I'll be surprised in Illinois can keep it within 17 to 18 points in this one. But we really don't know how good Kansas is this early in the season. This is why I stay away from betting on CF games in the first few weeks ....... betting is a crapshoot this early
I agree. As I posted earlier, Kansas now has a REALLY good coach in Liepold. Kansas is committing to football in terms of facilities. They are improving. But it is difficult to know how much. One thing is that a good coach can lay down a template for later coaches on how to attack the team's O and D.
