I think the better the season goes and the higher the recruiting ranking gets, the less likely he is to leave. The closer we get to the playoff, the more unprecedented it becomes. I know people talked about Jimbo leaving FSU. I don't think that correlates to our situation.
But I'll say Urban to PSU.
EDIT: I have to admit, I really admire what Schiano appears to be doing at Rutgers, particularly in recruiting. Admittedly, he has a lot of catching up to do, but they just look like winners in the field.