Penn State's path to the playoffs, still possible (Every Scenario, who to root for))

[Beaver-Stadium]

LETS START WITH WHO I THINK WILL BE OUT:

Big 12 - All teams SHOULD have two losses.

OK ST will need to beat OU at home next week
OU will then need to beat TCU at home the following week

OK ST then would need to either lose at IOWA ST or then lose to OU in the big 12 championship game

If you look at the reaming games in the BIG12 outside of these, there are still several chances of each team to have two loses. TCU also plays TEXAS next week.

If OU or OK ST wins out they should have a great chance to get in, but I find in very unlikely just because these teams all play each other in the next 4 week and the best two will have to play each other twice.

FINAL PREDICTION: BIG 12 LEFT OUT AS ALL TEAMS HAVE AT LEST 2 LOSES.

PAC 12:

WASHINGTON is the only team left with 1 loses after WSU losing last night.

They would have to run the table by winning the following games:
AT STANFORD (with Bryce Love returning)
UTAH at home
WSU at home
Neutral site USC (PAC 12 Championship)

FINAL PREDICTION: NO PAC 12 TEAM GETS IN AS ALL WILL HAVE AT LEAST 2 LOSES

WHO PENN STATE WOULD WANT TO GET IN / WIN TO HELP THERE CASE:

BIG 10:

1) Assumption: OSU will not lose another game.

OR

IF OSU loses one more game before then BIG10 title game:

PSU will need Wisconsin to lose 2 of there final two games as well:
At Indiana
Iowa at Home
Michigan at Home
At Minnesota

Then Wisconsin best OSU in the Big 10 Title game.

FINAL PREDICTION: OSU crushes Wisconsin in the Championship game (They have 1 of the 4 spots)


SEC:

The only decent team AL and GA play the rest of the year is Auburn.

Georgia has to go to AU so does AL.

PSU would need either of the following:

1) AU to beat either of them and the team they beat get, crushed in the SEC championship game. Giving the runner up in the SEC two losses.

OR

2) PSU would need an undefeated Georgia to Crush and Undefeated Alabama team. If AL were to beat LSU and AU down the stretch and then lose to Georgia they will not have a single two 25 win.

Ideal scenario: If AUB beats GA and Alabama wins out, that gives PSU the best chance. Hurts ND strength of schedule argument and only puts 1 SEC team in play.

ROOT LIKE HELL FOR AUBURN AGAINST GEORGIA ON 11/11

FINAL PREDICTION: ONE SEC TEAM get in when the dust settles (2 of 4 spots taken) *



PENN STATE WOULD ONLY NEED 1 OF THE FOLLOWING TO HAPPEN TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO GET IN OR TWO OF THE FOLLOWING IF TWO SEC TEAMS GET IN. THE ONLY WAY TWO SEC TEAMS I THINK GET IN ARE BOTH AL AND GA ARE UNDEFEATED AND PLAY A VERY CLOSE SEC TITLE GAME :



NOTRE DAME:

Simple: they win out and they will have at least 1 of the 4 spots.

PSU will hope for one lose to either (best chances) :
AT Miami
AT Stanford

ACC:

PSU needs NC ST to beat CLEMSON. Otherwise Clemons schedule the rest of the way looks very easy and they will go to the ACC title game.

PSU will also need VT to beat Miami ( which looks very possiable )

In an ideal scenario, VT beats Miami and the Miami turns around the next week and beats ND. This gives ND there second lose and if VT wins out it keeps a one lose Miami team out of the ACC championship game.

In that case PSU would need a two lose NC ST team to beat VT.

This would give every team in the ACC two loses.

FINAL PREDICTION: IF NC STATE wins next weekend I say the ACC will be left out. If Clemson wins out they will be in.


IF THE PAC 12 AND BIG 12 ARE LEFT OUT, BELOW ARE THE WAYS PSU CAN MAKE IT WITHOUT ANYTHING ELSE OUTSIDE OF THE BIG TEN HAPPEN:

1) OSU losses two game between (MSU,ILLINOIS, MICH, MICH ST) - PSU wins out and beats Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game.

2) OSU wins the next 4 and then loses to Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game ( In this case we would also need MICH to beat WIS AND either Indiana, Iowa or Minnesota to beat them); preferably Indiana or Iowa. That would give the conference champ 2 losses. This would also help PSU's SOS because Michigan will look better as will either Iowa or Indiana who PSU also beat.

3) OSU loses one game before the championship game and beats Wisconsin for the BIG 10 title (Best for PSU they lose to MICH OR MSU), Then also WIS losses to MICH and either Iowa or Indiana. This would create a compelling case for PSU over OSU since if OSU lost the MICH or MSU it would help PSU's SOS and also MICH beating WIS and either Iowa or Indianian.

The win by OSU over a 2 loss Wisconsin team will not be as compelling and give PSU a strong argument to over come a 1 point loss on the road.

Plus OU who will have also beaten OSU will have at least 2 losses at that point as well.

 

[fkkkjm]

Good analysis

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Good analysis

thank you maybe we can pin this thread

 

[Ranger Dan]

I’m not sure that Whether i want us to make the playoffs this year, because I don’t think we’d win. I’d be very happy having us win out and play a quality opponent in a bowl game.

 

[Wexford Buckeye]

Excellent analysis. And OSU certainly does not have an easy path. Iowa on the road, letdown/trap game. MSU ALWAYS gives us fits. Michigan is on the road and is due one of these years and will play lights out for the rivalry.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

I’m not sure that Whether i want us to make the playoffs this year, because I don’t think we’d win. I’d be very happy having us win out and play a quality opponent in a bowl game.

I think you run into the issue of the team being motivated to play in a bowl game that does not mean anything. If I were Barkley in that case I would sit out and as a fan I would support it. Same thing with MG.

 

[psu jerry 74]

I’m not sure that Whether i want us to make the playoffs this year, because I don’t think we’d win. I’d be very happy having us win out and play a quality opponent in a bowl game.

What???? We are good enough to beat any team: including Alabama!, GA, Clemson or ND! I'd also love the chance to play OSU again on a neutral site!

 

[nits74]

Good analysis

Agree, but far too many ifs. Ain't happening. Also, I'm not real sure Penn State wins out. On paper, yes, but depth issues can take their toll late in the year.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Excellent analysis. And OSU certainly does not have an easy path. Iowa on the road, letdown/trap game. MSU ALWAYS gives us fits. Michigan is on the road and is due one of these years and will play lights out for the rivalry.

Thank you. The problem is Iowa can't score enough to keep up with OSU. The difference is if things get dicey for OSU in the Iowa game, OSU can line up and run the ball right at them where PSU is not quite there alone the oline.

MSU I think is in the same boat at Iowa (will not be able to score enough), MSU will pay tough, but the game being AT OSU i give them less than a 5% chance.

Michigan will have zero and i mean 0 chance of beating a OSU team that would be going into the game 10-1. Not for what OSU will be playing for.

PSU's best bet is for you guys to win out and play MSU and MI close so those wins look better for PSU. So please beat them but not by too much .

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Agree, but far too many ifs. Ain't happening. Also, I'm not real sure Penn State wins out. On paper, yes, but depth issues can take their toll late in the year.

How can you say far too many iffs?

It is not like we need Mercer to beat Alabama.

Would you disagree that the big 12 and pac 12 will be out of the picture when all is said and done?

 

[psu jerry 74]

Excellent analysis. And OSU certainly does not have an easy path. Iowa on the road, letdown/trap game. MSU ALWAYS gives us fits. Michigan is on the road and is due one of these years and will play lights out for the rivalry.

OSU might just lose to Michigan if they stay with that new QB. Even if they lose to Michigan though, we would still be on the outside looking in as they'd still go to the Division championship game. We need them to lose 2 games and that is about as likely as Harbaugh becoming a likable character! Winning last nights game was the only way of controlling our own destiny, and it was so close we could all feel it!

 

[AWS1022]

LETS START WITH WHO I THINK WILL BE OUT:

Big 12 - All teams SHOULD have two losses.

OK ST will need to beat OU at home next week
OU will then need to beat TCU at home the following week

OK ST then would need to either lose at IOWA ST or then lose to OU in the big 12 championship game

If you look at the reaming games in the BIG12 outside of these, there are still several chances of each team to have two loses. TCU also plays TEXAS next week.

If OU or OK ST wins out they should have a great chance to get in, but I find in very unlikely just because these teams all play each other in the next 4 week and the best two will have to play each other twice.

FINAL PREDICTION: BIG 12 LEFT OUT AS ALL TEAMS HAVE AT LEST 2 LOSES.

PAC 12:

WASHINGTON is the only team left with 1 loses after WSU losing last night.

They would have to run the table by winning the following games:
AT STANFORD (with Bryce Love returning)
UTAH at home
WSU at home
Neutral site USC (PAC 12 Championship)

FINAL PREDICTION: NO PAC 12 TEAM GETS IN AS ALL WILL HAVE AT LEAST 2 LOSES

WHO PENN STATE WOULD WANT TO GET IN / WIN TO HELP THERE CASE:

BIG 10:

1) Assumption: OSU will not lose another game.

OR

IF OSU loses one more game before then BIG10 title game:

PSU will need Wisconsin to lose 2 of there final two games as well:
At Indiana
Iowa at Home
Michigan at Home
At Minnesota

Then Wisconsin best OSU in the Big 10 Title game.

FINAL PREDICTION: OSU crushes Wisconsin in the Championship game (They have 1 of the 4 spots)


SEC:

The only decent team AL and GA play the rest of the year is Auburn.

Georgia has to go to AU so does AL.

PSU would need either of the following:

1) AU to beat either of them and the team they beat get, crushed in the SEC championship game. Giving the runner up in the SEC two losses.

OR

2) PSU would need an undefeated Georgia to Crush and Undefeated Alabama team. If AL were to beat LSU and AU down the stretch and then lose to Georgia they will not have a single two 25 win.

Ideal scenario: If AUB beats GA and Alabama wins out, that gives PSU the best chance. Hurts ND strength of schedule argument and only puts 1 SEC team in play.

ROOT LIKE HELL FOR AUBURN AGAINST GEORGIA ON 11/11

FINAL PREDICTION: ONE SEC TEAM get in when the dust settles (2 of 4 spots taken) *



PENN STATE WOULD ONLY NEED 1 OF THE FOLLOWING TO HAPPEN TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO GET IN OR TWO OF THE FOLLOWING IF TWO SEC TEAMS GET IN. THE ONLY WAY TWO SEC TEAMS I THINK GET IN ARE BOTH AL AND GA ARE UNDEFEATED AND PLAY A VERY CLOSE SEC TITLE GAME :



NOTRE DAME:

Simple: they win out and they will have at least 1 of the 4 spots.

PSU will hope for one lose to either (best chances) :
AT Miami
AT Stanford

ACC:

PSU needs NC ST to beat CLEMSON. Otherwise Clemons schedule the rest of the way looks very easy and they will go to the ACC title game.

PSU will also need VT to beat Miami ( which looks very possiable )

In an ideal scenario, VT beats Miami and the Miami turns around the next week and beats ND. This gives ND there second lose and if VT wins out it keeps a one lose Miami team out of the ACC championship game.

In that case PSU would need a two lose NC ST team to beat VT.

This would give every team in the ACC two loses.

FINAL PREDICTION: IF NC STATE wins next weekend I say the ACC will be left out. If Clemson wins out they will be in.

Good analysis, but I don't think Wiscy needs to definitely lose two. If OSU loses to Michigan then beats Wiscy in the championship game, Wiscy is out. With their schedule their only hope is to go undefeated.

 

[Cpeplion]

The precedent was set last year. If you’re looking for the 4 best teams it’s Bama, OSU, PSU, and whoever else. Conference Championships mean nothing.

 

[rmem]

I appreciate the effort but in-depth analysis is not needed here. OSU has to lose to Michigan and we have to beat Wisconsin in the conference championship game, which they ridiculously have an unfair advantage to get to. It's no more complicated than that.

 

[AWS1022]

The precedent was set last year. If you’re looking for the 4 best teams it’s Bama, OSU, PSU, and whoever else. Conference Championships mean nothing.

Very well could be....if OSU is one of the four best then so is PSU...one point loss on the road points to PSU winning on a neutral field or at home.

 

[fairgambit]

I’m not sure that Whether i want us to make the playoffs this year, because I don’t think we’d win. I’d be very happy having us win out and play a quality opponent in a bowl game.

But just being there, in that cauldron of fire, far better prepares the squad for a run next year or the next.

 

[psuro]

A little bit of free time this morning?

 

[AWS1022]

I appreciate the effort but in-depth analysis is not needed here. OSU has to lose to Michigan and we have to beat Wisconsin in the conference championship game, which they ridiculously have an unfair advantage to get to. It's no more complicated than that.

Ok, what if OSU loses to UM and beats Wiscy in the championship game? Then OSU has two losses. Or what if Wiscy loses two in conference then beats OSU in the championship game? It's not as cut and dried as you're making it.

 

[rmem]

Ok, what if OSU loses to UM and beats Wiscy in the championship game? Then OSU has two losses. Or what if Wiscy loses two in conference then beats OSU in the championship game? It's not as cut and dried as you're making it.

And you are making it WAY too complicated.

 

[AWS1022]

And you are making it WAY too complicated.

No, you're saying there's only one way we get in and I'm saying that's not true. There are a multiple of ways we get in as long as we win out.

 

[nits74]

How can you say far too many iffs?

It is not like we need Mercer to beat Alabama.

Would you disagree that the big 12 and pac 12 will be out of the picture when all is said and done?

True, but they can beat Duke. In all seriousness, I don't see much of this happening. For example, Michigan beating Ohio State is about as likely as Mercer beating Duke in a BB rematch. And I don't think the Big 12 will necessarily be out of the picture. Whenever you start piling up ifs in any sport, it's a sign of trouble. Now, throw in the anti-Penn State proclivities and the favorable ND bias and we have another problem. I hope I'm wrong, but Penn State had its chance and for all intents and purposes threw it away yesterday.

 

[rmem]

No, you're saying there's only one way we get in and I'm saying that's not true. There are a multiple of ways we get in as long as we win out.

"Multitude"? Please. Look at the logical paths, if that is not too taxing for you.

 

[GregPSU]

LETS START WITH WHO I THINK WILL BE OUT:

Big 12 - All teams SHOULD have two losses.

OK ST will need to beat OU at home next week
OU will then need to beat TCU at home the following week

OK ST then would need to either lose at IOWA ST or then lose to OU in the big 12 championship game

If you look at the reaming games in the BIG12 outside of these, there are still several chances of each team to have two loses. TCU also plays TEXAS next week.

If OU or OK ST wins out they should have a great chance to get in, but I find in very unlikely just because these teams all play each other in the next 4 week and the best two will have to play each other twice.

FINAL PREDICTION: BIG 12 LEFT OUT AS ALL TEAMS HAVE AT LEST 2 LOSES.

PAC 12:

WASHINGTON is the only team left with 1 loses after WSU losing last night.

They would have to run the table by winning the following games:
AT STANFORD (with Bryce Love returning)
UTAH at home
WSU at home
Neutral site USC (PAC 12 Championship)

FINAL PREDICTION: NO PAC 12 TEAM GETS IN AS ALL WILL HAVE AT LEAST 2 LOSES

WHO PENN STATE WOULD WANT TO GET IN / WIN TO HELP THERE CASE:

BIG 10:

1) Assumption: OSU will not lose another game.

OR

IF OSU loses one more game before then BIG10 title game:

PSU will need Wisconsin to lose 2 of there final two games as well:
At Indiana
Iowa at Home
Michigan at Home
At Minnesota

Then Wisconsin best OSU in the Big 10 Title game.

FINAL PREDICTION: OSU crushes Wisconsin in the Championship game (They have 1 of the 4 spots)


SEC:

The only decent team AL and GA play the rest of the year is Auburn.

Georgia has to go to AU so does AL.

PSU would need either of the following:

1) AU to beat either of them and the team they beat get, crushed in the SEC championship game. Giving the runner up in the SEC two losses.

OR

2) PSU would need an undefeated Georgia to Crush and Undefeated Alabama team. If AL were to beat LSU and AU down the stretch and then lose to Georgia they will not have a single two 25 win.

Ideal scenario: If AUB beats GA and Alabama wins out, that gives PSU the best chance. Hurts ND strength of schedule argument and only puts 1 SEC team in play.

ROOT LIKE HELL FOR AUBURN AGAINST GEORGIA ON 11/11

FINAL PREDICTION: ONE SEC TEAM get in when the dust settles (2 of 4 spots taken) *



PENN STATE WOULD ONLY NEED 1 OF THE FOLLOWING TO HAPPEN TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO GET IN OR TWO OF THE FOLLOWING IF TWO SEC TEAMS GET IN. THE ONLY WAY TWO SEC TEAMS I THINK GET IN ARE BOTH AL AND GA ARE UNDEFEATED AND PLAY A VERY CLOSE SEC TITLE GAME :



NOTRE DAME:

Simple: they win out and they will have at least 1 of the 4 spots.

PSU will hope for one lose to either (best chances) :
AT Miami
AT Stanford

ACC:

PSU needs NC ST to beat CLEMSON. Otherwise Clemons schedule the rest of the way looks very easy and they will go to the ACC title game.

PSU will also need VT to beat Miami ( which looks very possiable )

In an ideal scenario, VT beats Miami and the Miami turns around the next week and beats ND. This gives ND there second lose and if VT wins out it keeps a one lose Miami team out of the ACC championship game.

In that case PSU would need a two lose NC ST team to beat VT.

This would give every team in the ACC two loses.

FINAL PREDICTION: IF NC STATE wins next weekend I say the ACC will be left out. If Clemson wins out they will be in.

Great analysis. Lots of football to be played out yet. Another consideration in our favor is we have a great shot at 11-1 with only a one point loss in an away game. If its us against another one loss team we could get in if that team has a much bigger loss, such as conf title game losses to UGA, Wiscy, etc lose by 3 or more td's.

LETS START WITH WHO I THINK WILL BE OUT:

Big 12 - All teams SHOULD have two losses.

OK ST will need to beat OU at home next week
OU will then need to beat TCU at home the following week

OK ST then would need to either lose at IOWA ST or then lose to OU in the big 12 championship game

If you look at the reaming games in the BIG12 outside of these, there are still several chances of each team to have two loses. TCU also plays TEXAS next week.

If OU or OK ST wins out they should have a great chance to get in, but I find in very unlikely just because these teams all play each other in the next 4 week and the best two will have to play each other twice.

FINAL PREDICTION: BIG 12 LEFT OUT AS ALL TEAMS HAVE AT LEST 2 LOSES.

PAC 12:

WASHINGTON is the only team left with 1 loses after WSU losing last night.

They would have to run the table by winning the following games:
AT STANFORD (with Bryce Love returning)
UTAH at home
WSU at home
Neutral site USC (PAC 12 Championship)

FINAL PREDICTION: NO PAC 12 TEAM GETS IN AS ALL WILL HAVE AT LEAST 2 LOSES

WHO PENN STATE WOULD WANT TO GET IN / WIN TO HELP THERE CASE:

BIG 10:

1) Assumption: OSU will not lose another game.

OR

IF OSU loses one more game before then BIG10 title game:

PSU will need Wisconsin to lose 2 of there final two games as well:
At Indiana
Iowa at Home
Michigan at Home
At Minnesota

Then Wisconsin best OSU in the Big 10 Title game.

FINAL PREDICTION: OSU crushes Wisconsin in the Championship game (They have 1 of the 4 spots)


SEC:

The only decent team AL and GA play the rest of the year is Auburn.

Georgia has to go to AU so does AL.

PSU would need either of the following:

1) AU to beat either of them and the team they beat get, crushed in the SEC championship game. Giving the runner up in the SEC two losses.

OR

2) PSU would need an undefeated Georgia to Crush and Undefeated Alabama team. If AL were to beat LSU and AU down the stretch and then lose to Georgia they will not have a single two 25 win.

Ideal scenario: If AUB beats GA and Alabama wins out, that gives PSU the best chance. Hurts ND strength of schedule argument and only puts 1 SEC team in play.

ROOT LIKE HELL FOR AUBURN AGAINST GEORGIA ON 11/11

FINAL PREDICTION: ONE SEC TEAM get in when the dust settles (2 of 4 spots taken) *



PENN STATE WOULD ONLY NEED 1 OF THE FOLLOWING TO HAPPEN TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO GET IN OR TWO OF THE FOLLOWING IF TWO SEC TEAMS GET IN. THE ONLY WAY TWO SEC TEAMS I THINK GET IN ARE BOTH AL AND GA ARE UNDEFEATED AND PLAY A VERY CLOSE SEC TITLE GAME :



NOTRE DAME:

Simple: they win out and they will have at least 1 of the 4 spots.

PSU will hope for one lose to either (best chances) :
AT Miami
AT Stanford

ACC:

PSU needs NC ST to beat CLEMSON. Otherwise Clemons schedule the rest of the way looks very easy and they will go to the ACC title game.

PSU will also need VT to beat Miami ( which looks very possiable )

In an ideal scenario, VT beats Miami and the Miami turns around the next week and beats ND. This gives ND there second lose and if VT wins out it keeps a one lose Miami team out of the ACC championship game.

In that case PSU would need a two lose NC ST team to beat VT.

This would give every team in the ACC two loses.

FINAL PREDICTION: IF NC STATE wins next weekend I say the ACC will be left out. If Clemson wins out they will be in.

 

[AWS1022]

"Multitude"? Please. Look at the logical paths, if that is not too taxing for you.

Many logical paths...main one being OSU loses one then wins the Big....exactly what happened last year.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

In my Scenario above I have OSU winning out.

Here is what would have to happen for PSU to be the ONLY team from the TEN 10 to take it

1) OSU losses two game between (MSU,ILLINOIS, MICH, MICH ST) - PSU wins out and beats Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game.

2) OSU wins the next 4 and then loses to Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game ( In this case we would also need MICH to beat WIS AND either Indiana, Iowa or Minnesota to beat them); preferably Indiana or Iowa. That would give the conference champ 2 losses. This would also help PSU's SOS because Michigan will look better as will either Iowa or Indiana who PSU also beat.

3) OSU loses one game before the championship game and beats Wisconsin for the BIG 10 title (Best for PSU they lose to MICH OR MSU), Then also WIS losses to MICH and either Iowa or Indiana. This would create a compelling case for PSU over OSU since if OSU lost the MICH or MSU it would help PSU's SOS and also MICH beating WIS and either Iowa or Indianian.

The win by OSU over a 2 loss Wisconsin team will not be as compelling and give PSU a strong argument to over come a 1 point loss on the road.

Plus OU who will have also beaten OSU will have at least 2 losses at that point as well, hurting OSU's case that that was a "good loss"

 

[PSUinMICH]

Penn State's path to the playoffs, still possible....and it's possible it will be 100 degrees in MI tomorrow. One's about as possible as the other.

 

[AWS1022]

In my Scenario above I have OSU winning out.

Here is what would have to happen for PSU to be the ONLY team from the TEN 10 to take it

1) OSU losses two game between (MSU,ILLINOIS, MICH, MICH ST) - PSU wins out and beats Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game.

2) OSU wins the next 4 and then loses to Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game ( In this case we would also need MICH to beat WIS AND either Indiana, Iowa or Minnesota to beat them); preferably Indiana or Iowa. That would give the conference champ 2 losses. This would also help PSU's SOS because Michigan will look better as will either Iowa or Indiana who PSU also beat.

3) OSU loses one game before the championship game and beats Wisconsin for the BIG 10 title (Best for PSU they lose to MICH OR MSU), Then also WIS losses to MICH and either Iowa or Indiana. This would create a compelling case for PSU over OSU since if OSU lost the MICH or MSU it would help PSU's SOS and also MICH beating WIS and either Iowa or Indianian.

The win by OSU over a 2 loss Wisconsin team will not be as compelling and give PSU a strong argument to over come a 1 point loss on the road.

Plus OU who will have also beaten OSU will have at least 2 losses at that point as well, hurting OSU's case that that was a "good loss"

Or, in the simplest scenario, OSU loses to UM then beats Wiscy in the championship. Then you have the exact same thing you had last year.

 

[AWS1022]

Penn State's path to the playoffs, still possible....and it's possible it will be 100 degrees in MI tomorrow. One's about as possible as the other.

Please...

 

[PennStJeff]

For now I've simplified my current rooting interests to hopefully get us to the playoff. Assuming we win out, root for Michigan to win out. Then OSU over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. This leaves us as the only 1 loss team in the Big Ten with the side benefit of strengthening Michigan to a 10-2 record and a "signature win" (same as Oklahoma record last year for OSU). That creates pretty much the exact situation as last year with roles reversed.

From there let the chips fall where they may. One thing I know for sure...teams expected to win will lose before the season is over. Hopefully it will be enough.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Or, in the simplest scenario, OSU loses to UM then beats Wiscy in the championship. Then you have the exact same thing you had last year.

You would also need Wisconsin to lose one or two more games before they play OSU just to make sure Wisconsin is out of the picture.

I still have a hard time thinking they would take OSU over PSU in that case.

Though you are correct that is a possibility.

 

[AWS1022]

You would also need Wisconsin to lose one or two more games before they play OSU just to make sure Wisconsin is out of the picture.

I still have a hard time thinking they would take OSU over PSU in that case.

Though you are correct that is a possibility.

Wiscy has too weak of an overall schedule and everyone knows it. Plus they would have to lose to OSU by one after leading the whole game to be a comparable loss.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Wiscy has too weak of an overall schedule and everyone knows it. Plus they would have to lose to OSU by one after leading the whole game to be a comparable loss.

Correct I would not be too worried about WIS as a PSU fan. It is not a matter of IF they lose it is a matter of WHEN.

It is still in PSU best interest that Wisconsin loses two games BEFORE the big 10 title game (MICH and either Iowa or IU) game because that will create a opportunity with a Wisconsin upset of OSU. PSU will get in at 11-1 from the BIG 10.

 

[AWS1022]

Correct I would not be too worried about WIS as a PSU fan. It is not a matter of IF they lose it is a matter of WHEN.

It is still in PSU best interest that Wisconsin loses two games BEFORE the big 10 title game (MICH and either Iowa or IU) game because that will create a opportunity with a Wisconsin upset of OSU. PSU will get in at 11-1 from the BIG 10.

Would love for that to happen, but I would guess if a two loss Wiscy team beats OSU in the championship game that would keep the entire Big out of the playoffs. That would be a bad look for the conference.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Would love for that to happen, but I would guess if a two loss Wiscy team beats OSU in the championship game that would keep the entire Big out of the playoffs. That would be a bad look for the conference.

I don't think so because you have to keep in mind the PAC 12 and BIG 12 will not have a team in. All will have at least 2 losses.

That would leave 5 teams for 4 sports IF everything broke against PSU (Clemson, ND winning out). In this case we would need BAMA to really give it to Georgia big time.)

Alabama SEC CHAMP
UGA SEC #2
Clemson
ND
PSU

 

[AWS1022]

I don't think so because you have to keep in mind the PAC 12 and BIG 12 will not have a team in. All will have at least 2 losses.

That would leave 5 teams for 4 sports IF everything broke against PSU (Clemson, ND winning out). In this case we would need BAMA to really give it to Georgia big time.)

Alabama SEC CHAMP
UGA SEC #2
Clemson
ND
PSU

In that scenario, I would say Georgia gets in because the Big would look bad with OSU losing to a two loss Wiscy team. That is unless GA gets crushed by Bama then the committee might not want to see a rematch.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

In that scenario, I would say Georgia gets in because the Big would look bad with OSU losing to a two loss Wiscy team. That is unless GA gets crushed by Bama then the committee might not want to see a rematch.

Correct PSU in that case would need UGA to lose big time or have Clemson or ND lose one more game.

 

[Sooner Lion]

LETS START WITH WHO I THINK WILL BE OUT:

Big 12 - All teams SHOULD have two losses.

OK ST will need to beat OU at home next week
OU will then need to beat TCU at home the following week

OK ST then would need to either lose at IOWA ST or then lose to OU in the big 12 championship game

If you look at the reaming games in the BIG12 outside of these, there are still several chances of each team to have two loses. TCU also plays TEXAS next week.

If OU or OK ST wins out they should have a great chance to get in, but I find in very unlikely just because these teams all play each other in the next 4 week and the best two will have to play each other twice.

FINAL PREDICTION: BIG 12 LEFT OUT AS ALL TEAMS HAVE AT LEST 2 LOSES.

PAC 12:

WASHINGTON is the only team left with 1 loses after WSU losing last night.

They would have to run the table by winning the following games:
AT STANFORD (with Bryce Love returning)
UTAH at home
WSU at home
Neutral site USC (PAC 12 Championship)

FINAL PREDICTION: NO PAC 12 TEAM GETS IN AS ALL WILL HAVE AT LEAST 2 LOSES

WHO PENN STATE WOULD WANT TO GET IN / WIN TO HELP THERE CASE:

BIG 10:

1) Assumption: OSU will not lose another game.

OR

IF OSU loses one more game before then BIG10 title game:

PSU will need Wisconsin to lose 2 of there final two games as well:
At Indiana
Iowa at Home
Michigan at Home
At Minnesota

Then Wisconsin best OSU in the Big 10 Title game.

FINAL PREDICTION: OSU crushes Wisconsin in the Championship game (They have 1 of the 4 spots)


SEC:

The only decent team AL and GA play the rest of the year is Auburn.

Georgia has to go to AU so does AL.

PSU would need either of the following:

1) AU to beat either of them and the team they beat get, crushed in the SEC championship game. Giving the runner up in the SEC two losses.

OR

2) PSU would need an undefeated Georgia to Crush and Undefeated Alabama team. If AL were to beat LSU and AU down the stretch and then lose to Georgia they will not have a single two 25 win.

Ideal scenario: If AUB beats GA and Alabama wins out, that gives PSU the best chance. Hurts ND strength of schedule argument and only puts 1 SEC team in play.

ROOT LIKE HELL FOR AUBURN AGAINST GEORGIA ON 11/11

FINAL PREDICTION: ONE SEC TEAM get in when the dust settles (2 of 4 spots taken) *



PENN STATE WOULD ONLY NEED 1 OF THE FOLLOWING TO HAPPEN TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO GET IN OR TWO OF THE FOLLOWING IF TWO SEC TEAMS GET IN. THE ONLY WAY TWO SEC TEAMS I THINK GET IN ARE BOTH AL AND GA ARE UNDEFEATED AND PLAY A VERY CLOSE SEC TITLE GAME :



NOTRE DAME:

Simple: they win out and they will have at least 1 of the 4 spots.

PSU will hope for one lose to either (best chances) :
AT Miami
AT Stanford

ACC:

PSU needs NC ST to beat CLEMSON. Otherwise Clemons schedule the rest of the way looks very easy and they will go to the ACC title game.

PSU will also need VT to beat Miami ( which looks very possiable )

In an ideal scenario, VT beats Miami and the Miami turns around the next week and beats ND. This gives ND there second lose and if VT wins out it keeps a one lose Miami team out of the ACC championship game.

In that case PSU would need a two lose NC ST team to beat VT.

This would give every team in the ACC two loses.

FINAL PREDICTION: IF NC STATE wins next weekend I say the ACC will be left out. If Clemson wins out they will be in.


IF THE PAC 12 AND BIG 12 ARE LEFT OUT, BELOW ARE THE WAYS PSU CAN MAKE IT WITHOUT ANYTHING ELSE OUTSIDE OF THE BIG TEN HAPPEN:

1) OSU losses two game between (MSU,ILLINOIS, MICH, MICH ST) - PSU wins out and beats Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game.

2) OSU wins the next 4 and then loses to Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game ( In this case we would also need MICH to beat WIS AND either Indiana, Iowa or Minnesota to beat them); preferably Indiana or Iowa. That would give the conference champ 2 losses. This would also help PSU's SOS because Michigan will look better as will either Iowa or Indiana who PSU also beat.

3) OSU loses one game before the championship game and beats Wisconsin for the BIG 10 title (Best for PSU they lose to MICH OR MSU), Then also WIS losses to MICH and either Iowa or Indiana. This would create a compelling case for PSU over OSU since if OSU lost the MICH or MSU it would help PSU's SOS and also MICH beating WIS and either Iowa or Indianian.

The win by OSU over a 2 loss Wisconsin team will not be as compelling and give PSU a strong argument to over come a 1 point loss on the road.

Plus OU who will have also beaten OSU will have at least 2 losses at that point as well.

You need to go back and watch the last couple of series. Some of our OL actually got pancaked on their a$$ while trying to pass protect. No way this team is ready for the college playoff.

 

[razpsu]

If Michigan wins out we are in the playoff simple as that!!!!!!!

 

[JTLion]

True, but they can beat Duke. In all seriousness, I don't see much of this happening. For example, Michigan beating Ohio State is about as likely as Mercer beating Duke in a BB rematch. And I don't think the Big 12 will necessarily be out of the picture. Whenever you start piling up ifs in any sport, it's a sign of trouble. Now, throw in the anti-Penn State proclivities and the favorable ND bias and we have another problem. I hope I'm wrong, but Penn State had its chance and for all intents and purposes threw it away yesterday.

MIchigan with the young QB is a better team and anything can happen in the game with Ohio State especially being at Michigan

 

[captain pipe]

What???? We are good enough to beat any team: including Alabama!, GA, Clemson or ND! I'd also love the chance to play OSU again on a neutral site!

In your dreams!