Penn State's path to the playoffs, still possible (Every Scenario, who to root for))

[Richard Adler]

In some sordid way, Pitt screwed us last year by beating us, and they are screwing us this year by sucking.

 

[fastlax16]

In some sordid way, Pitt screwed us last year by beating us, and they are screwing us this year by sucking.

This is why playing them is no benefit. Either play the Oklahomas of the world OOC or go full Washington and play absolute nobodies. Things pickup after they drop off the schedule thankfully.

 

[PennStJeff]

i believe the only 2 ways for us to get in are (in order of likely hood)

for Michigan to upset Ohio State and then Ohio State beats Wisconsin

For Michigan to beat Wisconsin and then Wisconsin upsets Ohio State

I dont think what happens in other conferences really matters with regards to our fate

The second scenario is risky because we would have the same record as Wisconsin but they would have the tiebreaker by beating OSU. I think the first scenario is the one, with Michigan also beating Wisconsin (thus giving both OSU and Wisconsin 2 losses) to leave no question.

 

[harbest]

LETS START WITH WHO I THINK WILL BE OUT:

Big 12 - All teams SHOULD have two losses.

OK ST will need to beat OU at home next week
OU will then need to beat TCU at home the following week

OK ST then would need to either lose at IOWA ST or then lose to OU in the big 12 championship game

If you look at the reaming games in the BIG12 outside of these, there are still several chances of each team to have two loses. TCU also plays TEXAS next week.

If OU or OK ST wins out they should have a great chance to get in, but I find in very unlikely just because these teams all play each other in the next 4 week and the best two will have to play each other twice.

FINAL PREDICTION: BIG 12 LEFT OUT AS ALL TEAMS HAVE AT LEST 2 LOSES.

PAC 12:

WASHINGTON is the only team left with 1 loses after WSU losing last night.

They would have to run the table by winning the following games:
AT STANFORD (with Bryce Love returning)
UTAH at home
WSU at home
Neutral site USC (PAC 12 Championship)

FINAL PREDICTION: NO PAC 12 TEAM GETS IN AS ALL WILL HAVE AT LEAST 2 LOSES

WHO PENN STATE WOULD WANT TO GET IN / WIN TO HELP THERE CASE:

BIG 10:

1) Assumption: OSU will not lose another game.

OR

IF OSU loses one more game before then BIG10 title game:

PSU will need Wisconsin to lose 2 of there final two games as well:
At Indiana
Iowa at Home
Michigan at Home
At Minnesota

Then Wisconsin best OSU in the Big 10 Title game.

FINAL PREDICTION: OSU crushes Wisconsin in the Championship game (They have 1 of the 4 spots)


SEC:

The only decent team AL and GA play the rest of the year is Auburn.

Georgia has to go to AU so does AL.

PSU would need either of the following:

1) AU to beat either of them and the team they beat get, crushed in the SEC championship game. Giving the runner up in the SEC two losses.

OR

2) PSU would need an undefeated Georgia to Crush and Undefeated Alabama team. If AL were to beat LSU and AU down the stretch and then lose to Georgia they will not have a single two 25 win.

Ideal scenario: If AUB beats GA and Alabama wins out, that gives PSU the best chance. Hurts ND strength of schedule argument and only puts 1 SEC team in play.

ROOT LIKE HELL FOR AUBURN AGAINST GEORGIA ON 11/11

FINAL PREDICTION: ONE SEC TEAM get in when the dust settles (2 of 4 spots taken) *



PENN STATE WOULD ONLY NEED 1 OF THE FOLLOWING TO HAPPEN TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO GET IN OR TWO OF THE FOLLOWING IF TWO SEC TEAMS GET IN. THE ONLY WAY TWO SEC TEAMS I THINK GET IN ARE BOTH AL AND GA ARE UNDEFEATED AND PLAY A VERY CLOSE SEC TITLE GAME :



NOTRE DAME:

Simple: they win out and they will have at least 1 of the 4 spots.

PSU will hope for one lose to either (best chances) :
AT Miami
AT Stanford

ACC:

PSU needs NC ST to beat CLEMSON. Otherwise Clemons schedule the rest of the way looks very easy and they will go to the ACC title game.

PSU will also need VT to beat Miami ( which looks very possiable )

In an ideal scenario, VT beats Miami and the Miami turns around the next week and beats ND. This gives ND there second lose and if VT wins out it keeps a one lose Miami team out of the ACC championship game.

In that case PSU would need a two lose NC ST team to beat VT.

This would give every team in the ACC two loses.

FINAL PREDICTION: IF NC STATE wins next weekend I say the ACC will be left out. If Clemson wins out they will be in.


IF THE PAC 12 AND BIG 12 ARE LEFT OUT, BELOW ARE THE WAYS PSU CAN MAKE IT WITHOUT ANYTHING ELSE OUTSIDE OF THE BIG TEN HAPPEN:

1) OSU losses two game between (MSU,ILLINOIS, MICH, MICH ST) - PSU wins out and beats Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game.

2) OSU wins the next 4 and then loses to Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game ( In this case we would also need MICH to beat WIS AND either Indiana, Iowa or Minnesota to beat them); preferably Indiana or Iowa. That would give the conference champ 2 losses. This would also help PSU's SOS because Michigan will look better as will either Iowa or Indiana who PSU also beat.

3) OSU loses one game before the championship game and beats Wisconsin for the BIG 10 title (Best for PSU they lose to MICH OR MSU), Then also WIS losses to MICH and either Iowa or Indiana. This would create a compelling case for PSU over OSU since if OSU lost the MICH or MSU it would help PSU's SOS and also MICH beating WIS and either Iowa or Indianian.

The win by OSU over a 2 loss Wisconsin team will not be as compelling and give PSU a strong argument to over come a 1 point loss on the road.

Plus OU who will have also beaten OSU will have at least 2 losses at that point as well.

Best scenario is out the window:
JUST WIN AND LET THE OTHER GUY(S) WORRY ABOUT WHO THEY NEED HELP FROM. Don't rely on others for help, you are setting yourself up for disappointment and heartbreak.

 

[PSUinSTL]

Obviously best case scenario would be for OSU to lose twice and PSU wins out including the BIG.

If that doesn't happen - an ugly (10+ point) loss by OSU might get us in over them assuming it isn't to Wiscy in the CCG.

As 2nd team it isn't that farfetched.
Look at the slots (4 slots for teams)
PAC 12 - not likely to get a slot. If UW loses - I think PSU will get in before a 2 loss PAC12 - they still have to play WSU/Stanford
Big 12 - OU/OSU one is eliminated this week. OSU also plays ISU. OU also plays TCU/WVU. TCU also plays Texas. Then a rematch between between the Best 2 teams. Chances the BIG12 has a 2 loss champ.

That leaves the following for 4 slots
SEC Champ
ACC Champ
BIG Champ
SEC2
BIG2
ND

ND - plays Stanford/Miami - According to ESPN predictor - ND has a 35% of winning out.
UGA - has Ken/uSCe/Auburn/GT - According to ESPN predictor - UGA has a 34% chance of winning out. Then they would have to play Bama
ACC
Clemon - has a 50/50 shot to win out (not counting title game)
Miami - has a .15 % Chance of winning out. Though they have to lose twice
VT has a 21% Chance of winning out. (Not counting the title game)

PSU has an 80% chance of winning out

The biggest key here is UGA losing twice. If that happens - it increases our odds dramatically. A 1 loss UGA team might get the edge (better wins) and an equal loss (if it was close). Also 2 conferences won't get 2 teams in. So we need UGA to lose twice.

It is as likely as not to occur that 2 of the ACC/BIG12/PAC have 2 loss champs. As was proven last year - that will help us.
The other key is ND losing.
ND taking a spot eliminates a conference from the Final 4. To then put a 2nd team in from a conference becomes harder (essentially eliminates 3 conferences). I think the precedence was set last year that a 2nd team can get in (though it didn't happen) - but OSU making it without winning a conference set the tone that it can be done) - but don't see a situation where 3 conferences aren't represented. 2 not in - I can see - but not three. ND MUST LOSE

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

VT always drops one that they aren't supposed to.

I can easily see them losing at Georgia Tech in 2 weeks.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Do you think the committee will even bother to look at this?....

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

Nah, why would they do that?

There 13 people in the room so there is a chance all kidding aside. They have spoken about computer numbers and metrics being part of the conversations.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

I think Michigan and/or Michigan State should move to the west, and we should get 1-2 of the current West stinkers. Wisconsin has such a simple path every year, especially given Nebraska's ineptitude, but we have to deal with Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State.

It is a real joke now the OSU and PSU have came off there sanctions. I can't see a team winning the Big 10 from the West the next 5 years the way PSU, OSU, and MICH are recruiting.

 

[Grant Green]

If I've learned anything watching college football for 40+ years is that crazy sh!t happens. I know it's a long shot, but so was making the B10 championship game last year. And then UM lost to Iowa (who plays OSU this weekend!!).

 

[PSUFBFAN]

Nobody is talking about VT, if they beat Miami and then get revenge against Clemson in the ACC championship game they would be another one loss team with a decent resume with wins over two ranked teams. They would just replace Clemson in the debate.

EXACTLY!! This is a pretty reasonable scenario. I think VT beats Miami next week and then they get a rematch against Clemson in the ACC championship game. Clemson already beat them once and its really hard to beat a good team twice in the same year. If VT wins out, they jump ahead of PSU WITHOUT question.

 

[PSUFBFAN]

If you want PSU to make it to the playoffs you can basically forget about all of the garbage going on with other conferences. The odds of two Big Ten Teams getting in are close to zero.

Your only real chance comes with one slap of cold hard reality and a bit of poetic justice on the back end: You need Ohio State to lose one of it's 4 remaining games, and then beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten Title game (and while I suspect the Committee won't put in a 2-loss team, for comforts sake assume the Buckeyes only beat Whisky by 3-10 points).

The odds OSU loses two more regular season games is basically zero; so you are NOT going to the Big Ten Title Game. But the committee has already set the precedent of putting in a none-division/non-conference champ that it views as having a "better" record... see us over you last year....

Take care of your business, and hope for the above to happen. That scenario is probably 99% of your chances.

This is EXCELLENT, REALISTIC, and SPOT-ON!

 

[bdgan]

LETS START WITH WHO I THINK WILL BE OUT:

Big 12 - All teams SHOULD have two losses.

OK ST will need to beat OU at home next week
OU will then need to beat TCU at home the following week

OK ST then would need to either lose at IOWA ST or then lose to OU in the big 12 championship game

If you look at the reaming games in the BIG12 outside of these, there are still several chances of each team to have two loses. TCU also plays TEXAS next week.

If OU or OK ST wins out they should have a great chance to get in, but I find in very unlikely just because these teams all play each other in the next 4 week and the best two will have to play each other twice.

FINAL PREDICTION: BIG 12 LEFT OUT AS ALL TEAMS HAVE AT LEST 2 LOSES.

PAC 12:

WASHINGTON is the only team left with 1 loses after WSU losing last night.

They would have to run the table by winning the following games:
AT STANFORD (with Bryce Love returning)
UTAH at home
WSU at home
Neutral site USC (PAC 12 Championship)

FINAL PREDICTION: NO PAC 12 TEAM GETS IN AS ALL WILL HAVE AT LEAST 2 LOSES

WHO PENN STATE WOULD WANT TO GET IN / WIN TO HELP THERE CASE:

BIG 10:

1) Assumption: OSU will not lose another game.

OR

IF OSU loses one more game before then BIG10 title game:

PSU will need Wisconsin to lose 2 of there final two games as well:
At Indiana
Iowa at Home
Michigan at Home
At Minnesota

Then Wisconsin best OSU in the Big 10 Title game.

FINAL PREDICTION: OSU crushes Wisconsin in the Championship game (They have 1 of the 4 spots)


SEC:

The only decent team AL and GA play the rest of the year is Auburn.

Georgia has to go to AU so does AL.

PSU would need either of the following:

1) AU to beat either of them and the team they beat get, crushed in the SEC championship game. Giving the runner up in the SEC two losses.

OR

2) PSU would need an undefeated Georgia to Crush and Undefeated Alabama team. If AL were to beat LSU and AU down the stretch and then lose to Georgia they will not have a single two 25 win.

Ideal scenario: If AUB beats GA and Alabama wins out, that gives PSU the best chance. Hurts ND strength of schedule argument and only puts 1 SEC team in play.

ROOT LIKE HELL FOR AUBURN AGAINST GEORGIA ON 11/11

FINAL PREDICTION: ONE SEC TEAM get in when the dust settles (2 of 4 spots taken) *



PENN STATE WOULD ONLY NEED 1 OF THE FOLLOWING TO HAPPEN TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO GET IN OR TWO OF THE FOLLOWING IF TWO SEC TEAMS GET IN. THE ONLY WAY TWO SEC TEAMS I THINK GET IN ARE BOTH AL AND GA ARE UNDEFEATED AND PLAY A VERY CLOSE SEC TITLE GAME :



NOTRE DAME:

Simple: they win out and they will have at least 1 of the 4 spots.

PSU will hope for one lose to either (best chances) :
AT Miami
AT Stanford

ACC:

PSU needs NC ST to beat CLEMSON. Otherwise Clemons schedule the rest of the way looks very easy and they will go to the ACC title game.

PSU will also need VT to beat Miami ( which looks very possiable )

In an ideal scenario, VT beats Miami and the Miami turns around the next week and beats ND. This gives ND there second lose and if VT wins out it keeps a one lose Miami team out of the ACC championship game.

In that case PSU would need a two lose NC ST team to beat VT.

This would give every team in the ACC two loses.

FINAL PREDICTION: IF NC STATE wins next weekend I say the ACC will be left out. If Clemson wins out they will be in.


IF THE PAC 12 AND BIG 12 ARE LEFT OUT, BELOW ARE THE WAYS PSU CAN MAKE IT WITHOUT ANYTHING ELSE OUTSIDE OF THE BIG TEN HAPPEN:

1) OSU losses two game between (MSU,ILLINOIS, MICH, MICH ST) - PSU wins out and beats Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game.

2) OSU wins the next 4 and then loses to Wisconsin in the BIG 10 title game ( In this case we would also need MICH to beat WIS AND either Indiana, Iowa or Minnesota to beat them); preferably Indiana or Iowa. That would give the conference champ 2 losses. This would also help PSU's SOS because Michigan will look better as will either Iowa or Indiana who PSU also beat.

3) OSU loses one game before the championship game and beats Wisconsin for the BIG 10 title (Best for PSU they lose to MICH OR MSU), Then also WIS losses to MICH and either Iowa or Indiana. This would create a compelling case for PSU over OSU since if OSU lost the MICH or MSU it would help PSU's SOS and also MICH beating WIS and either Iowa or Indianian.

The win by OSU over a 2 loss Wisconsin team will not be as compelling and give PSU a strong argument to over come a 1 point loss on the road.

Plus OU who will have also beaten OSU will have at least 2 losses at that point as well.

At this point I just want to beat MSU on the road with our beaten up team. Otherwise none of this matters.

 

[Cpeplion]

I can easily see them losing at Georgia Tech in 2 weeks.

Going by their history, they’ll beat Miami and then lose to GT like u said. They’ve always had trouble with them too.

 

[Cpeplion]

EXACTLY!! This is a pretty reasonable scenario. I think VT beats Miami next week and then they get a rematch against Clemson in the ACC championship game. Clemson already beat them once and its really hard to beat a good team twice in the same year. If VT wins out, they jump ahead of PSU WITHOUT question.

They would def but have you seen them play this year? My bet is that they beat Miami and win their division but they’ll drop one before the seasons over.

 

[jimjim47]

I think Michigan and/or Michigan State should move to the west, and we should get 1-2 of the current West stinkers. Wisconsin has such a simple path every year, especially given Nebraska's ineptitude, but we have to deal with Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State.

Michigan State would love to go to the West.

In fact they tried already when the geographic divisions were created (Holllis claimed the "big" MSU alumni base in Chicago was a good reason for them to be in the West).

Sparty does not want to be in the same division as Ohio State (similar to the Legends Leaders ) . Hollis/Dantonio want to only face Wisconsin as their biggest challenge to get to Big10 championship game. Hope and believe it will never happen.

 

[jimjim47]

Obviously best case scenario would be for OSU to lose twice and PSU wins out including the BIG.

If that doesn't happen - an ugly (10+ point) loss by OSU might get us in over them assuming it isn't to Wiscy in the CCG.

As 2nd team it isn't that farfetched.
Look at the slots (4 slots for teams)
PAC 12 - not likely to get a slot. If UW loses - I think PSU will get in before a 2 loss PAC12 - they still have to play WSU/Stanford
Big 12 - OU/OSU one is eliminated this week. OSU also plays ISU. OU also plays TCU/WVU. TCU also plays Texas. Then a rematch between between the Best 2 teams. Chances the BIG12 has a 2 loss champ.

That leaves the following for 4 slots
SEC Champ
ACC Champ
BIG Champ
SEC2
BIG2
ND

ND - plays Stanford/Miami - According to ESPN predictor - ND has a 35% of winning out.
UGA - has Ken/uSCe/Auburn/GT - According to ESPN predictor - UGA has a 34% chance of winning out. Then they would have to play Bama
ACC
Clemon - has a 50/50 shot to win out (not counting title game)
Miami - has a .15 % Chance of winning out. Though they have to lose twice
VT has a 21% Chance of winning out. (Not counting the title game)

PSU has an 80% chance of winning out

The biggest key here is UGA losing twice. If that happens - it increases our odds dramatically. A 1 loss UGA team might get the edge (better wins) and an equal loss (if it was close). Also 2 conferences won't get 2 teams in. So we need UGA to lose twice.

It is as likely as not to occur that 2 of the ACC/BIG12/PAC have 2 loss champs. As was proven last year - that will help us.
The other key is ND losing.
ND taking a spot eliminates a conference from the Final 4. To then put a 2nd team in from a conference becomes harder (essentially eliminates 3 conferences). I think the precedence was set last year that a 2nd team can get in (though it didn't happen) - but OSU making it without winning a conference set the tone that it can be done) - but don't see a situation where 3 conferences aren't represented. 2 not in - I can see - but not three. ND MUST LOSE

If Alabama and Georgia are both 12-0 going into SEC championship and Alabama loses by 1 point the only conference that could get 2 teams in will be the SEC. Georgia because they won the SEC, Alabama because of their reputation and past performance.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Michigan State would love to go to the West.

In fact they tried already when the geographic divisions were created (Holllis claimed the "big" MSU alumni base in Chicago was a good reason for them to be in the West).

Sparty does not want to be in the same division as Ohio State (similar to the Legends Leaders ) . Hollis/Dantonio want to only face Wisconsin as their biggest challenge to get to Big10 championship game. Hope and believe it will never happen.

Michigan should be in the West and they should move Purdue to the East. That would make better balance.

 

[demlion]

Michigan should be in the West and they should move Purdue to the East. That would make better balance.

But then the Greatest Game in the History of Football, College or Pro, might be threatened. Can't have that!

 

[jimjim47]

Michigan should be in the West and they should move Purdue to the East. That would make better balance.

Michigan should be in the West and they should move Purdue to the East. That would make better balance.

Michigan loves being in he East and will never move. That way we get to play PSU every year along with the rest of the east.

 

[Cpeplion]

Michigan loves being in he East and will never move. That way we get to play PSU every year along with the rest of the east.

I just don’t know why anyone thinks Alvarez would allow competition going west.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

I just don’t know why anyone thinks Alvarez would allow competition going west.

I don't think he would. He is not stupid. He knows they would go from a 10-2 to 9-3 type team each year to no better than 8-4.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

If Alabama and Georgia are both 12-0 going into SEC championship and Alabama loses by 1 point the only conference that could get 2 teams in will be the SEC. Georgia because they won the SEC, Alabama because of their reputation and past performance.

This might sound a little crazy but in that scenario Auburn would have 4 losses (Georgia and Alabama both beat them) and not be ranked, that would also mean Alabama beats LSU and Miss St.

That would leave Alabama with more than likely one, 1, uno, top 25 win either (LSU or Miss St) if either would remain in the top 25 after one or two more losses.

It it not out of the question they are left with 0 top 25 wins. At that point we know they are "Alabama" but what resume would Alabama have with 0-1 top 25 wins with out of conference wins against fresno st, colorado state, mercer, and a 4-5 win fsu team.

That is a far less resume than Penn State or a one loss ND.

Am i missing something ?

 

[RU31trap]

You guys in my opinion have a decent shot to make this years playoff. First and foremost you will need to finish the season 11-1 and your victories will need to be decisive. Right now I only see MSU as any kind of threat. If you could beat MSU by two or more TD's the selection committee cannot and will not ignore you down the stretch. But you also need a little help and it starts with Notre Dame beating Miami. I realize this is a long shot but if NC State could upset Clemson which is possible you guys would be at number 5 in one of the polls. Finally, Georgia would need to pull a Georgia and lose a game down the stretch preferably to an unranked South Carolina. If this happens you guys have a good chance to get into the playoffs. Finally, if OSU loses any game down the stretch then it's a done deal you are in probably playing Alabama and Wisconsin playing Notre Dame. Beat MSU this week!!

 

[itsofficial101]

You guys in my opinion have a decent shot to make this years playoff. First and foremost you will need to finish the season 11-1 and your victories will need to be decisive. Right now I only see MSU as any kind of threat. If you could beat MSU by two or more TD's the selection committee cannot and will not ignore you down the stretch. But you also need a little help and it starts with Notre Dame beating Miami. I realize this is a long shot but if NC State could upset Clemson which is possible you guys would be at number 5 in one of the polls. Finally, Georgia would need to pull a Georgia and lose a game down the stretch preferably to an unranked South Carolina. If this happens you guys have a good chance to get into the playoffs. Finally, if OSU loses any game down the stretch then it's a done deal you are in probably playing Alabama and Wisconsin playing Notre Dame. Beat MSU this week!!

We want Miami to beat Notre Dame because Miami isn't good enough to win the ACC and a 1 loss Miami is weaker than a 1 loss Notre Dame. 1 loss and Miami is out. We need them or Stanford to clip Notre Dame.

Would be nice also for the Big 12 to finish with a 2 loss champ. I'm thinking the PAC does too with only Washington left to hold out hopes. We are in ahead of a 1 loss Wisconsin. We just would need either the ACC champ to have 2 losses maybe Georgia picks one up before the game with Bama.

 

[BBHorn86]

I appreciate the effort but in-depth analysis is not needed here. OSU has to lose to Michigan and we have to beat Wisconsin in the conference championship game, which they ridiculously have an unfair advantage to get to. It's no more complicated than that.

I respectfully disagree. The job of the committee is to pick the four best teams. If it came down to winning your division and the conference championship game we would have been a lock last year. We all know what happened. Each week between now and the announcement of the playoff participants in early December games played will have an impact on the rankings. If there is limited traffic in front of us with the initial ranking tonight and just a few of the outcomes listed above occur there is every reason to believe, assuming PSU wins out and does so by improving their "eye test" score, they end up behind Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson as the fourth best team. Frankly if ND and Clemson are cleared out I can see it being 2 from the SEC and 2 from the Big Ten. We don't need to win the Big Ten title game to have a shot. No way Wisconsin beats Ohio State in the title game so there strength of schedule is way below ours even though they might also be 11-1.

 

[jimjim47]

This might sound a little crazy but in that scenario Auburn would have 4 losses (Georgia and Alabama both beat them) and not be ranked, that would also mean Alabama beats LSU and Miss St.

That would leave Alabama with more than likely one, 1, uno, top 25 win either (LSU or Miss St) if either would remain in the top 25 after one or two more losses.

It it not out of the question they are left with 0 top 25 wins. At that point we know they are "Alabama" but what resume would Alabama have with 0-1 top 25 wins with out of conference wins against fresno st, colorado state, mercer, and a 4-5 win fsu team.

That is a far less resume than Penn State or a one loss ND.

Am i missing something ?

You have a valid argument except as a PSU fan , more than anybody (after being left out last year for OSU) should realize the bias the committee has for the biggest names in college football over the last ten years - Alabama and OSU.

Alabama is the gold standard in college football and I believe would get into the playoffs if they lost to Georgia in a very close SEC Championship game and finished 12-1. I think a 1 loss Alabama gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma or a 1 loss Washinton or a 1 loss TCU or a 1 loss PSU.

It is supposed to be the best 4 teams not the best 4 conference champions.

Alabama "passes" the eye test and I hate that term.

Now if Gerogia losses the SEC championship by 1 point to Alabama and finishes 12-1 Georgia will not get in because it is Georgia not Alabama. Just looking at it based on human bias in the committee.

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

The fact that Penn State came in at 7 and Ohio State at 6 is very telling and helpful to Penn State.

This does two things.

One, it puts the scenario I outlined above is still very much in play and enforces the fact that PAC 12 and BIG 12 will be all but out once OU loses to OK ST this weekend.

Additionally if OSU loses one more game and beats a 1 or two loss Wisconsin team in the BIG 10 championship game they are no way a lock to make it over PSU. If OSU was 5 or 4 then I would not think that could happen.

Tonight was the best news possible for Penn State tonight.

 

[TheGLOV]

Just win baby! -Al Davis

 

[NewYC]

The fact that Penn State came in at 7 and Ohio State at 6 is very telling and helpful to Penn State.

This does two things.

One, it puts the scenario I outlined above is still very much in play and enforces the fact that PAC 12 and BIG 12 will be all but out once OU loses to OK ST this weekend.

Additionally if OSU loses one more game and beats a 1 or two loss Wisconsin team in the BIG 10 championship game they are no way a lock to make it over PSU. If OSU was 5 or 4 then I would not think that could happen.

Tonight was the best news possible for Penn State tonight.

I agree. I think no way OSU gets in with two losses even as big champs. They lose again, they’re out.

 

[hagberg]

The only way we'll make the top 4 is if OSU loses two regular season games and we win out, including the B1G CG (which we only get to with OSU losing those two games, btw). Anyone who thinks last year's debacle of OSU in over a B1G champion PSU has any bearing on the reverse scenario this year is fooling themselves. First of all, we don't have the same cachet in the eyes of the committee, and second, the committee has too much hubris to worry about being called hypocritical for moving the goalposts. They will certainly choose the four best teams.......if they're the four teams the committee wants.

 

[itsofficial101]

The only way we'll make the top 4 is if OSU loses two regular season games and we win out, including the B1G CG (which we only get to with OSU losing those two games, btw). Anyone who thinks last year's debacle of OSU in over a B1G champion PSU has any bearing on the reverse scenario this year is fooling themselves. First of all, we don't have the same cachet in the eyes of the committee, and second, the committee has too much hubris to worry about being called hypocritical for moving the goalposts. They will certainly choose the four best teams.......if they're the four teams the committee wants.

Totally disagree. We really only need a few teams to lose games and most of those teams play each other in the next few weeks. Some have yet to play as many as three 2 loss or better teams and then face a division champ on top of that. This is going to eliminate teams each week from here on out.

Had they ranked the teams a week ago, we would have been 3 and Ohio St maybe 7 or 8. Guess what? We already had a matchup like those the other teams in the running are yet to face and we are standing only 3 spots away from being in it. We need out and have by far the highest likelihood of doing so. We have a pretty decent chance.