Penn State's path to the playoffs - Who to root for 10/6

[Beaver-Stadium]

Below is going off if the committee followed the AP Rankings (THIS IS WITH OHIO STATE WINNING OUT AND WINNING THE BIG 10 ) PSU'S ONLY OTHER CHANCE I THINK WOULD BE WINNING A THREE WAY TIE BREAKER IF MICHIGAN OR MSU BEAT OSU AND WE BEAT BOTH OF THEM.

1) ALABAMA would need to win out. This would mean beating LSU and AUBURN, then UGA in the SEC Championship game. (THIS WOULD BE PLAYOFF SPOT #1) -

2) GEORGIA - to be safe to prevent 2 SEC teams (Assuming BAMA beats them in the SEC Championship game) they would need to lose one of the following games (LSU, FLORIDA, KENTUCKY, OR AUBURN)

3) OHIO STATE would need to WIN out. (THIS WOULD BE PLAYOFF SPOT #2)

4) THREE of the FOUR would need to happen to give a 11-1 PENN STATE A CHANCE - A) ACC champ has 2 losses b) BIG 12 champ has 2 losses c) Notre dame has at least one loss d) pac 12 champ has 2 losses


THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT GAMES FOR PENN STATE FANS:

VIRGINIA TECH OVER ND (REALLY HARD*) - THIS LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY REAL TEST NOTRE DAME HAS LEFT

TEXAS OVER OU(REALLY HARD*) IF THEY BEAT OU IT HURTS THE BIG 12 BEST CHANCE (OU) TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

WHAT ELSE TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK :

ALABAMA OVER WHO EVER THEY PLAY
VANDERBILT OVER GEORGIA - NOT HAPPENING
OHIO STATE OVER IU - HAPPENING
WAFE FOREST OVER CLEMSON - NOT HAPPENING
FLORIDA OVER LSU (LESS THAN 30% CHANCE)
MISS STATE OVER AUBURN - NOT HAPPENING
KANSAS OVER WV - NOT HAPPENING
UCLA OVER WASHINGTON - NOT HAPPENING

 

[fairgambit]

Below is going off if the committee followed the AP Rankings (THIS IS WITH OHIO STATE WINNING OUT AND WINNING THE BIG 10 ) PSU'S ONLY OTHER CHANCE I THINK WOULD BE WINNING A THREE WAY TIE BREAKER IF MICHIGAN OR MSU BEAT OSU AND WE BEAT BOTH OF THEM.

1) ALABAMA would need to win out. This would mean beating LSU and AUBURN, then UGA in the SEC Championship game. (THIS WOULD BE PLAYOFF SPOT #1) -

2) GEORGIA - to be safe to prevent 2 SEC teams (Assuming BAMA beats them in the SEC Championship game) they would need to lose one of the following games (LSU, FLORIDA, KENTUCKY, OR AUBURN)

3) OHIO STATE would need to WIN out. (THIS WOULD BE PLAYOFF SPOT #2)

4) THREE of the FOUR would need to happen to give a 11-1 PENN STATE A CHANCE - A) ACC champ has 2 losses b) BIG 12 champ has 2 losses c) Notre dame has at least one loss d) pac 12 champ has 2 losses


THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT GAMES FOR PENN STATE FANS:

VIRGINIA TECH OVER ND (REALLY HARD*) - THIS LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY REAL TEST NOTRE DAME HAS LEFT

TEXAS OVER OU(REALLY HARD*) IF THEY BEAT OU IT HURTS THE BIG 12 BEST CHANCE (OU) TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

WHAT ELSE TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK :

ALABAMA OVER WHO EVER THEY PLAY
VANDERBILT OVER GEORGIA - NOT HAPPENING
OHIO STATE OVER IU - HAPPENING
WAFE FOREST OVER CLEMSON - NOT HAPPENING
FLORIDA OVER LSU (LESS THAN 30% CHANCE)
MISS STATE OVER AUBURN - NOT HAPPENING
KANSAS OVER WV - NOT HAPPENING
UCLA OVER WASHINGTON - NOT HAPPENING

Keep the faith!

 

[Art]

FWIW, you're making this way too complicated. Enjoy this PSU team and let nature take care of the rest.

 

[JosephNit]

Below is going off if the committee followed the AP Rankings (THIS IS WITH OHIO STATE WINNING OUT AND WINNING THE BIG 10 ) PSU'S ONLY OTHER CHANCE I THINK WOULD BE WINNING A THREE WAY TIE BREAKER IF MICHIGAN OR MSU BEAT OSU AND WE BEAT BOTH OF THEM.

1) ALABAMA would need to win out. This would mean beating LSU and AUBURN, then UGA in the SEC Championship game. (THIS WOULD BE PLAYOFF SPOT #1) -

2) GEORGIA - to be safe to prevent 2 SEC teams (Assuming BAMA beats them in the SEC Championship game) they would need to lose one of the following games (LSU, FLORIDA, KENTUCKY, OR AUBURN)

3) OHIO STATE would need to WIN out. (THIS WOULD BE PLAYOFF SPOT #2)

4) THREE of the FOUR would need to happen to give a 11-1 PENN STATE A CHANCE - A) ACC champ has 2 losses b) BIG 12 champ has 2 losses c) Notre dame has at least one loss d) pac 12 champ has 2 losses


THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT GAMES FOR PENN STATE FANS:

VIRGINIA TECH OVER ND (REALLY HARD*) - THIS LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY REAL TEST NOTRE DAME HAS LEFT

TEXAS OVER OU(REALLY HARD*) IF THEY BEAT OU IT HURTS THE BIG 12 BEST CHANCE (OU) TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

WHAT ELSE TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK :

ALABAMA OVER WHO EVER THEY PLAY
VANDERBILT OVER GEORGIA - NOT HAPPENING
OHIO STATE OVER IU - HAPPENING
WAFE FOREST OVER CLEMSON - NOT HAPPENING
FLORIDA OVER LSU (LESS THAN 30% CHANCE)
MISS STATE OVER AUBURN - NOT HAPPENING
KANSAS OVER WV - NOT HAPPENING
UCLA OVER WASHINGTON - NOT HAPPENING

That's the spirit! Franklin's most important coaching job of the year comes during the next two weeks -- and it's not against an opponent on the field.

Rather, it's against the emotional hangover and letdown that comes with the kind of heartbreaking loss experienced yesterday.

Last year after the same thing happened at Ohio State, the natural reaction was to think, oh hell, we blew it, our chances for a playoff spot are done, etc and so forth.

The guys then went out and played flat against Michigan State. Yet, when all was said and done it was NOT the Ohio State loss but rather the close loss the next week to Sparty that ended up putting a torpedo in our playoff chances.

The point is, Franklin has got to keep the kids' heads in the game, put what happened Saturday night, as tough as it was, behind them and get the mojo back against Michigan State. The bye week helps a lot here.

Fact is, if we beat Michigan State in two weeks, we're still very much alive. But we can't afford a repeat of what happened last year.

The Ohio State game is over. We played one of the top three teams in the country even or better but couldn't put them away at the end. It sucks, but we can't get it back. So OK. Move on. There's still a lot to play for.

 

[Safety Blitz]

If PSU wins most or all of its remaining games then gets a top tier bowl game against a good opponent, I will be a very happy football fan.
Despite the loss last night, the game was far more enjoyable to me than the thumping of Pitt.
A playoff berth would be great, but I refuse to use that as the measuring stick of a very good season.

 

[danvillenit]

I’ll be quite satisfied with 10-2. There is no way the back seven on defense is championship caliber

 

[psugisher]

It's so early in the season that a number of scenarios could get us into the playoff discussion. OSU getting upset somewhere along the line and then losing to Michigan in the final game is the easiest path as long as we win out and win the conference.

If that doesn't occur, I think we really need Michigan to win every game before we play them. If they're in the top ten and we beat them on the road, it'll give us a quality win. Iowa winning out other than the game with us could put them at 10-2 and give us another good one. We don't have any of them yet.. and those out of conference losses that some were cheering diminish the strength of the remaining ranked teams on our schedule. It's going to take a lot but it's early so a lot will happen.

 

[PennStateNate]

Bama isn’t losing. Most complete team in the country.

Notre Dame. After the way they destroyed Stanford, cant see them losing.

Ohio State will drop one somewhere. But still win B1G on tie breaker.

That leaves Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU as possible. LSU plays Bama and Georgia. So one of them will be out. I’ll say LSU with 2 losses.

That leaves Oklahoma and Georgia. Oklahoma has a game at Morgantown, which right now maybe one of the biggest games of the year. Especially if both are unbeaten. If WVU beats OU they could jump In. Let’s not forget them as they are 9th.

Georgia loses to Bama in the SEC title game. It will be interesting to see if they get in. I have a hard time believing they would get in over a unbeaten Big 12 team.

 

[fastlax16]

Bama isn’t losing. Most complete team in the country.

Notre Dame. After the way they destroyed Stanford, cant see them losing.

Ohio State will drop one somewhere. But still win B1G on tie breaker.

That leaves Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU as possible. LSU plays Bama and Georgia. So one of them will be out. I’ll say LSU with 2 losses.

That leaves Oklahoma and Georgia. Oklahoma has a game at Morgantown, which right now maybe one of the biggest games of the year. Especially if both are unbeaten. If WVU beats OU they could jump In. Let’s not forget them as they are 9th.

Georgia loses to Bama in the SEC title game. It will be interesting to see if they get in. I have a hard time believing they would get in over a unbeaten Big 12 team.

Depends how Georgia loses in that scenario. It’s for the best of bama just lays the wood on everyone in the sec. a one point win over Georgia might get the sec two teams, a 21 point beat down probably not. If LSU beats Georgia and loses to bama they’re still a threat as well.

 

[PennStateNate]

Georgia has a killer 4 game stretch coming up.

At LSU
Florida
At Kentucky
Auburn

Kentucky will be fired up and they are really fast this year.

 

[psujejr]

Path to the playoffs.....beat OSU, plain and simple.
Not gonna happen.

 

[aquapong]

Probably too early to worry about this. I’m not sure we don’t drop another game we shouldn’t anyway.

 

[AWS1022]

Just enjoy the ride. Playoffs or bust is a bad mindset. Everyone is playing for second place this year anyhow. Bama beats anyone in the playoffs by three TD’s this year. Anything can and will happen in college football. There were a bunch of undefeated teams this time last year and there ended up being none.

By the way, the OP forgot UCF...a second straight undefeated season may get them into the playoffs this year.

 

[Big 0]

Why are you yelling this? Don’t you know internet etiquette? ;-)

 

[PSU Dave]

FWIW, you're making this way too complicated. Enjoy this PSU team and let nature take care of the rest.

In other words........

 

[PennStateTurf2002]

Last 2 years PSU has had 2 losses and have just been out of the mix. One would say 2 years ago should have been in the playoff. If PSU can navigate the schedule 11-1, they will be in the mix regardless of others. There are always upsets and unexpected results. You also have no idea how the real playoff poll will look when it is released. It doesn’t normally look like the AP or coaches. Ohio State got in 2 years ago without a conference championship game appearance. You just can’t predict how it is going to play out. I would be pulling for Michigan though if I were everyone. They are 14/15. They play a tough schedule at Wisconsin and home vs Michigan State prior to a bye week and the PSU game. They would certainly be a top 10 ranked team come our game and really give us a shove forward if we can get that game.

PSU having to play Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan will help a lot. Would love to see Iowa playing well up to and after us as well. Unless Ohio State gets beat twice which i don’t see, better for us if they just dominate the field the whole way to the playoff.

 

[Cosmos]

Below is going off if the committee followed the AP Rankings (THIS IS WITH OHIO STATE WINNING OUT AND WINNING THE BIG 10 ) PSU'S ONLY OTHER CHANCE I THINK WOULD BE WINNING A THREE WAY TIE BREAKER IF MICHIGAN OR MSU BEAT OSU AND WE BEAT BOTH OF THEM.

1) ALABAMA would need to win out. This would mean beating LSU and AUBURN, then UGA in the SEC Championship game. (THIS WOULD BE PLAYOFF SPOT #1) -

2) GEORGIA - to be safe to prevent 2 SEC teams (Assuming BAMA beats them in the SEC Championship game) they would need to lose one of the following games (LSU, FLORIDA, KENTUCKY, OR AUBURN)

3) OHIO STATE would need to WIN out. (THIS WOULD BE PLAYOFF SPOT #2)

4) THREE of the FOUR would need to happen to give a 11-1 PENN STATE A CHANCE - A) ACC champ has 2 losses b) BIG 12 champ has 2 losses c) Notre dame has at least one loss d) pac 12 champ has 2 losses


THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT GAMES FOR PENN STATE FANS:

VIRGINIA TECH OVER ND (REALLY HARD*) - THIS LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY REAL TEST NOTRE DAME HAS LEFT

TEXAS OVER OU(REALLY HARD*) IF THEY BEAT OU IT HURTS THE BIG 12 BEST CHANCE (OU) TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

WHAT ELSE TO LOOK FOR THIS WEEK :

ALABAMA OVER WHO EVER THEY PLAY
VANDERBILT OVER GEORGIA - NOT HAPPENING
OHIO STATE OVER IU - HAPPENING
WAFE FOREST OVER CLEMSON - NOT HAPPENING
FLORIDA OVER LSU (LESS THAN 30% CHANCE)
MISS STATE OVER AUBURN - NOT HAPPENING
KANSAS OVER WV - NOT HAPPENING
UCLA OVER WASHINGTON - NOT HAPPENING

IMO this is an exercise in futility because we aren't getting in. Especially when ND is a factor. Hope for 11-1 and a NY Day 6 bowl. The Michigan State game is huge. Of all the remaining teams they matchup best against us. Plus their coach is sneaky. Let's hope the kids bounce back emotionally.

 

[psualum10]

PSU finishes 11-1 they'll be in the playoffs. They'll actually have a better resume than most in contention. They'll have 5+ wins against teams probably ranked.

 

[nits74]

Ship has sailed, I'm afraid.

 

[MoyerJones]

Keep winning, and decisively
Beating UM at the Big House needs to be decisive and it would help if it were big news.
Iowa wins out. UM beats OSU. Wisky loses to PSU and UM twice after UM beats a 9-3 Wisky in the B1G.
Then CJF steps up his publicity and talks about how PSU was a different team in September. (Sound familiar??).
Tough pill to swallow, and unlikely, but our 'friends' in Western PA could help push PSU's resume along beating one or two of Syracuse, ND, VTech, and Miami.

What the H is big news? What I mean is that other key games, as you look at Week 10 when PSU plays UM, may be less important by that time, so ESPN has nothing else to talk about but PSU's drubbing of UM at the Big House.

Week 10:
PSU at UM
GA v Kentucky
WVU v TX (WVU could easily be undefeated going into this game / TX will have played both Oklahomas by week 10)
Stanford v Washington (Stanford has a tough next few weeks) (Wash has CO and OR before Week 10)
NW v ND (NW at home - could be upset potential but NW also has Wisky right before)
Bama v LSU

Of all the previous seasons, this season has a higher degree of probability for a traffic jam of contenders sitting in the top 10.

I do think that MSU and UM can come on strong in October and November.

 

[PSUoh90]

We will be an underdog at Michigan. Not a game that I see us winning.

 

[Woodpecker]

You lost me at

1) ALABAMA would need to win out.

Wasn't it proven last year that they don't even have to win their division to be in the playoff? Of course, that being said, I don't think they'll lose any of their remaining games but I've been wrong before.