Continuing from last week when I failed miserably (committee tethered PSU to Minnesota and then ranked Minnesota, also kept baylor lower than I expected), let's see if we can do this again:
Tier 1:
1) LSU (10-0)
Strength of Schedule: 16
Strength of Record: 1
Game Control: 2
Top 10 Record: 2-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 24.0
2) Ohio State (10-0)
Strength of Schedule: 54
Strength of Record: 2
Game Control: 1
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 2-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 41.7
3) Clemson (11-0)
Strength of Schedule: 68
Strength of Record: 4
Game Control: 3
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 35.2
No changes here. LSU has the best wins and Ohio State is the most dominant. Scary when you think about how Ohio State has done it without playing starters for second halves. Clemson is kind of in a tier of their own. Nowhere close to the resume of the top 2, but the combo of their strength of record, game control, and margin of victory are really good. Definitely better than all of the next tier.
Tier 2:
4) Georgia (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 15
Strength of Record: 3
Game Control: 6
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 21.9
5) Alabama (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 34
Strength of Record: 6
Game Control: 4
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 29.3
6) Penn State (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 26
Strength of Record: 5
Game Control: 7
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 23.3
7) Oregon (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 44
Strength of Record: 8
Game Control: 9
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 23.0
8) Oklahoma (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 45
Strength of Record: 11
Game Control: 8
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 21.4
9) Utah (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 49
Strength of Record: 10
Game Control: 10
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 23.4
I'm sticking to my guns here. Penn State should have been ranked higher last week, but they got bundled in with Minnesota. Now able to drop Minnesota to another tier, I expect Penn State to get rated independently. Georgia and Alabama resumes improved this past week because of their games (at Auburn) and because teams on their schedule won (Alabama). Compared to PSU and Georgia, Oklahoma and the Pac12 teams have awful resumes. The absence of a ranked team on the Utah schedule will put them at third in that group. Really though, those three teams (Ok, Oregon, and Utah) could be ranked in any order.
Tier 3:
10) Florida (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 11
Strength of Record: 7
Game Control: 15
Top 10 Record: 0-2
Top 25 Record: 1-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 18.3
11) Wisconsin (8-2)
Strength of Schedule: 31
Strength of Record: 16
Game Control: 5
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 21.2
12) Michigan (7-2)
Strength of Schedule: 24
Strength of Record: 13
Game Control: 13
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 16.6
13) Minnesota (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 60
Strength of Record: 14
Game Control: 17
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 14.8
14) Baylor (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 55
Strength of Record: 9
Game Control: 16
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 14.4
You could really flip Baylor and Minnesota and it wouldn't matter. I'll be curious to see how far they drop both Baylor and Minnesota. I'm torn on whether they'll drop below Michigan and Wisconsin or not. I'm rolling the dice and thinking they'll drop behind those two teams, particularly given the SOS and the amount of top 25 teams faced.
And lastly, if you're looking for rooting interests from the committee, hope to see them rank Minnesota as low as possible. The chance to go to Pasadena is going to come down to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Penn State (assuming Michigan also loses to OSU). We will want Wisconsin to beat Minnesota and then lose to OSU. Perhaps at that point, we'd be ranked slightly ahead of Wisconsin because of their third loss. It'll be close.
Tier 1:
1) LSU (10-0)
Strength of Schedule: 16
Strength of Record: 1
Game Control: 2
Top 10 Record: 2-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 24.0
2) Ohio State (10-0)
Strength of Schedule: 54
Strength of Record: 2
Game Control: 1
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 2-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 41.7
3) Clemson (11-0)
Strength of Schedule: 68
Strength of Record: 4
Game Control: 3
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 35.2
No changes here. LSU has the best wins and Ohio State is the most dominant. Scary when you think about how Ohio State has done it without playing starters for second halves. Clemson is kind of in a tier of their own. Nowhere close to the resume of the top 2, but the combo of their strength of record, game control, and margin of victory are really good. Definitely better than all of the next tier.
Tier 2:
4) Georgia (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 15
Strength of Record: 3
Game Control: 6
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 21.9
5) Alabama (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 34
Strength of Record: 6
Game Control: 4
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 29.3
6) Penn State (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 26
Strength of Record: 5
Game Control: 7
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 23.3
7) Oregon (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 44
Strength of Record: 8
Game Control: 9
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 23.0
8) Oklahoma (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 45
Strength of Record: 11
Game Control: 8
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 21.4
9) Utah (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 49
Strength of Record: 10
Game Control: 10
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 23.4
I'm sticking to my guns here. Penn State should have been ranked higher last week, but they got bundled in with Minnesota. Now able to drop Minnesota to another tier, I expect Penn State to get rated independently. Georgia and Alabama resumes improved this past week because of their games (at Auburn) and because teams on their schedule won (Alabama). Compared to PSU and Georgia, Oklahoma and the Pac12 teams have awful resumes. The absence of a ranked team on the Utah schedule will put them at third in that group. Really though, those three teams (Ok, Oregon, and Utah) could be ranked in any order.
Tier 3:
10) Florida (9-2)
Strength of Schedule: 11
Strength of Record: 7
Game Control: 15
Top 10 Record: 0-2
Top 25 Record: 1-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 18.3
11) Wisconsin (8-2)
Strength of Schedule: 31
Strength of Record: 16
Game Control: 5
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 21.2
12) Michigan (7-2)
Strength of Schedule: 24
Strength of Record: 13
Game Control: 13
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 16.6
13) Minnesota (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 60
Strength of Record: 14
Game Control: 17
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 14.8
14) Baylor (9-1)
Strength of Schedule: 55
Strength of Record: 9
Game Control: 16
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 1-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 14.4
You could really flip Baylor and Minnesota and it wouldn't matter. I'll be curious to see how far they drop both Baylor and Minnesota. I'm torn on whether they'll drop below Michigan and Wisconsin or not. I'm rolling the dice and thinking they'll drop behind those two teams, particularly given the SOS and the amount of top 25 teams faced.
And lastly, if you're looking for rooting interests from the committee, hope to see them rank Minnesota as low as possible. The chance to go to Pasadena is going to come down to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Penn State (assuming Michigan also loses to OSU). We will want Wisconsin to beat Minnesota and then lose to OSU. Perhaps at that point, we'd be ranked slightly ahead of Wisconsin because of their third loss. It'll be close.
