PSU an early 7.5 favorite over little brother

[Delco Lion]

 

[roswelllion]

I don't know what Army's graduation rate looked like but my initial thought is 28 looks huge against UM. Army had a heckuva year in 2018.

 

[Thomas1945]

Michigan preseason hype in full bloom. They must ship Flint, Mich water to every sports beat writer in America.

 

[Howie'81]

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Lay the points.

 

[RU31trap]

Georgia is giving 10.5 and they're playing at ND?

 

[NitneLiun]

I don't know what Army's graduation rate looked like but my initial thought is 28 looks huge against UM. Army had a heckuva year in 2018.

They had a lot of first classmen (seniors) on last year's team.

 

[NITTANYJGK]

Give the points; bet the house.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Note that those aren’t actual lines that can be bet, they are just based on power ratings.

 

[Grant Green]

Note that those aren’t actual lines that can be bet, they are just based on power ratings.

Beat me to it.

Collin Wilson is a good follow btw.
I saw that Brad Powers power ranking had this game at -11.5.

 

[mikemauti42]

There will be a lot of People getting rich taking Penn State -7.5. Probably even Pitt fans.

 

[NittanyLions1234]

Any chance it's a night game??

 

[BBrown]

Michigan preseason hype in full bloom. They must ship Flint, Mich water to every sports beat writer in America.

If only that were true.

 

[Thomas1945]

Any chance it's a night game??

Well the lights and the crowd noise might keep the Pitt fans awake till the end, because there’s no free beverage to look forward to.

 

[AWS1022]

Any chance it's a night game??

Last year’s beatdown may cause TV to shy away from putting that game on at night.

 

[Grant Green]

I don't know what Army's graduation rate looked like but my initial thought is 28 looks huge against UM. Army had a heckuva year in 2018.

There is an S+P stat called 2nd order wins. It estimates the number of wins a team should have had based on the stats of each game, not the final score. Army has won 3 more games than expected in each of the past 2 seasons. It means that they were most likely a little lucky to win as many games as they did in the past 2 seasons. Their 2nd order win differential was higher than any other team.

For reference, Northwestern was just behind them last year for highest differential (in other words NW won about 3 more games than they should have).

 

[BobPSU92]

We're screwed.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

There is an S+P stat called 2nd order wins. It estimates the number of wins a team should have had based on the stats of each game, not the final score. Army has won 3 more games than expected in each of the past 2 seasons. It means that they were most likely a little lucky to win as many games as they did in the past 2 seasons. Their 2nd order win differential was higher than any other team.

For reference, Northwestern was just behind them last year for highest differential (in other words NW won about 3 more games than they should have).

Curious, what was the figure for PSU?

 

[Grant Green]

Curious, what was the figure for PSU?

PSU had an expected win total of 9.7, so we were closer to 10 wins than to our actual 9 wins.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

 

[BOSCO2]

I'll be in Vegas in June. Nobody here make any bets until then, okay? Thanks.

 

[marshall23]

By the time they play us....Pitt will already have a loss to Ohio U.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

WOW. I am not a betting man, but PSU probably wins that game by 30 points.

 

[GregInPitt]

Michigan preseason hype in full bloom. They must ship Flint, Mich water to every sports beat writer in America.

Are you talking about Heavy Water, with the lead in it???

 

[LemonEars]

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Wow! If you can actually place bets now giving only 7.5 to the putrid pitters you should mortgage your house and bet all you can. The pitters are going to be much worse than last year. We are playing them at home. CJF hates Narduzzi and this is his last chance to humiliate him. We will win by at least 40.

 

[LionJim]

I'll be in Vegas in June. Nobody here make any bets until then, okay? Thanks.

Lol. Very nice.

 

[PSUcup1]

There is an S+P stat called 2nd order wins. It estimates the number of wins a team should have had based on the stats of each game, not the final score. Army has won 3 more games than expected in each of the past 2 seasons. It means that they were most likely a little lucky to win as many games as they did in the past 2 seasons. Their 2nd order win differential was higher than any other team.

For reference, Northwestern was just behind them last year for highest differential (in other words NW won about 3 more games than they should have).

interesting stuff. thanks for posting

do you think that is mostly due to Army's style of play running the triple option?

 

[bkmtnittany1]

Any chance it's a night game??

Hope not. The last Pitt game at PSU was an absolute disaster! 330 start and I remember being at Toftrees at 10:30. Looking to park in the yellow lots behind the North stands where we usually park. Never got a parking spot till 3 oclock about a mile from the stadium on the east stands.

 

[Grant Green]

interesting stuff. thanks for posting

do you think that is mostly due to Army's style of play running the triple option?

I think it's probably a little bit of style and a little luck. I recall last season that there were several games where they were outplayed and very fortunate to win. They were +10 in turnovers, which is going to help a lot.

This season, they had a win expectancy of only 8% vs Air Force (and won), who plays a similar style, so you can't point to style of play alone. Looking at the stats, I'm not sure why it was only 8%, because it wasn't that much of a mismatch, statistically. However, I actually watched that game and remember thinking that AF looked better and should have won.

I'm not sure how SP calculates win expectancy. I suspect that success rate (gaining 50% of the needed yardage on 1st dn, 70% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd) has something to do with it, and believe it or not, Army's is low. They are the kind of team that gains 2.5-3 yards almost every play and goes for it on 4th down.