If the 12 team playoff was this year:
Penn State, despite being 3rd best in the Big Ten, looked to be the #4 at large team prior to the conference championship games.
6 highest ranked predicted conference champions in week 14: Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC, Clemson, Tulane
6 predicted at-large berths in week 14: Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee, Penn State, Kansas State, Utah
There were two upsets in the conference championship games. That dropped Penn State to the final at large team.
6 highest ranked conference champions week 15: Georgia, Michigan, Clemson, Utah, Kansas State, Tulane
6 at-large berths week 15: TCU, Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee, USC, Penn State
Even being “only” the 3rd best team in the Big Ten, and even after two upsets in the conference championship games, Penn State still would have qualified.