PSU - OSU predictions?
- Thread starter okinburg1
- Start date
In an effort to make the sport more popular some ranking entities have decided to use the college football ranking method. So this particular ranking logic is Okie State was ranked 1 at the beginning of the season and they haven't lost. Yet.
Is this a troll ;-)
Those that rank teams seem to believe you have to lose in order to fall in the rankings. I personally believe this is ridiculous. OSU was #1 at the beginning of the year so in their infinite wisdom, they should still be #1.
Unfortunately, some of these polls need consistency and it seems like Flo is doing its best to market flo.... certainly hope they don't turn into an ESPN.
- Will stick my neck out here and make predicitons. Want to say we win all ten but have to look at the odds a bit... here goes:
- 125: No. 2 Nick Suriano (16-1) vs. No. 11 Nick Piccininni (18-6) - Suriano 7-3, PSU 3-0.
- 133: George Carpenter (1-11) or Triston Law (0-2) vs. No. 3 Kaid Brock pin fall. OSU 6-3.
- 141: No. 10 Jimmy Gulibon (13-6) vs. No. 1 Dean Heil (23-0) - Heil 5-2 (this is where I'm hoping for the upset special!!) OSU 9-3.
- 149: No. 1 Zain Retherford (18-0) vs. No. 2 Anthony Collica (17-1) - Zain 7-2, OSU 9-6.
- 157: No. 1 Jason Nolf (18-0) vs. No. 6 Joe Smith (8-3) - Nolf 13-5 PSU 10-9.
- 165: No. 4 Vincenzo Joseph (13-3) vs. No. 8 Chandler Rogers (18-4) - Joseph 8-3 PSU 13-9.
- 174: No. 7 Mark Hall (23-2) vs. No. 9 Kyle Crutchmer (15-4) - Hall 7-3 PSU 16-9.
- 184: No. 2 Bo Nickal (17-0) vs. No. 4 Nolan Boyd (18-3) - Bo 13-3, PSU 20-9.
- 197: No. 9 Matt McCutcheon (14-3) vs. No. 8 Preston Weigel (15-4) - Weigel 5-3, PSU 20-12
- 285: No. 3 Nick Nevills (15-2) vs. No. 6 Austin Schafer (18-1) - Nevills 5-3 PSU 23-12.
No! I'm not a troll. I'm a diehard PSU football fan and Nittany Lion Club member. I am starting to follow wrestling more and know that we have blown out every team we faced. We should be #1. I was just wondering why the pollsters had OSU #1 instead of us. Hopefully we kick their butts this weekend and then go on to win another Big 10 and national championship.
To fill in the blanks a little:
Wrestling has 2 sets of team rankings: duals and tournament. These are most likely the duals rankings.
PSU had some legitimate lineup questions at the beginning of the year: Suriano being a true freshman, Nevills coming off 2 injuries, Cenzo having limited action last year, Nickal and McCutcheon and Morelli/Rasheed changing weights. OSU has a solid lineup with really only 1 preseason question (285). Our guys have since proven themselves, but OSU hasn't lost and polls are polls.
Tourney rankings can vary wildly based upon the method used. Typically they roll up individual tournament points to the team level -- but some services base this upon rankings (resume), others on projected finish. (Example: Hall is ranked 7-10 but projects at least top 4.) And not all services estimate bonus points -- which for PSU is like having an extra national finalist in the lineup.
Shorter version: polls are of limited use, much like in football
Thanks for the info. Sounds to me that wrestling polls are even more useless than football polls. If we beat OSU in the dual and then win the Big and Nationals, the polls will take care of themselves -- just like football.
If anyone is reading my viewpoint ... Okie State on paper when "healthy", is a very very good match for the boys!
It's hard to trade places when at the beginning of the year, Okie St's returning talent was miles ahead of us in placement points ...
Is the gap closed? YEAH! Did we face the "best" teams in the Big 10? At full strength? Okie St is 14-0, a slew of matches without JoJo in the line-up!
My only concern - we haven't beat a team at full strength - tOSU / Iowa ... each had guys out of the line-up!
We're traveling to Stillwater, it's a hostile environment, those Orange singlets will be ready for our Blue/White singlets! Well coached, great kids/athletes ... FLO got $20 out of me for a reason!
125: Suriano DEC 3-0
133: Brock FALL 3-6
141: Heil DEC 3-9
149: Zain DEC 6-9
157: Nolf DEC 9-9
165: Rogers DEC 9-12
174: Hall DEC 12-12
184: Nickal DEC 15-12
197: Weigal DEC 15-15
285: Nevills DEC 18-15
It's hard to trade places when at the beginning of the year, Okie St's returning talent was miles ahead of us in placement points ...
Is the gap closed? YEAH! Did we face the "best" teams in the Big 10? At full strength? Okie St is 14-0, a slew of matches without JoJo in the line-up!
My only concern - we haven't beat a team at full strength - tOSU / Iowa ... each had guys out of the line-up!
We're traveling to Stillwater, it's a hostile environment, those Orange singlets will be ready for our Blue/White singlets! Well coached, great kids/athletes ... FLO got $20 out of me for a reason!
125: Suriano DEC 3-0
133: Brock FALL 3-6
141: Heil DEC 3-9
149: Zain DEC 6-9
157: Nolf DEC 9-9
165: Rogers DEC 9-12
174: Hall DEC 12-12
184: Nickal DEC 15-12
197: Weigal DEC 15-15
285: Nevills DEC 18-15
Had Bo Jordan wrestled Mark Hall, he would've made up the 20 point difference between the two teams. Had Sam Stoll wrestled Nick Nevills, he would've made up the 15 point difference between the two teams.
I wanted to go over the doomsday scenario for this dual, one where things go pretty wrong for us. How would you (PSU community) rate this likelihood? Could things get much worse than this?
125 - Piccininni strikes lightning in a bottle and wins, OSU 3-0
133 - Brock decks Carpenter, OSU 9-0
141 - Heil bonuses Gulibon, OSU 13-0
149 - Zain decision, OSU 13-3
157 - Nolf decision, OSU 13-6
165 - Rogers decision, OSU 16-6
174 - Hall decision, OSU 16-9
184 - Bo decision, OSU 16-12
197 - Weigel decision, OSU 19-12
285 - Nevills decision, OSU 19-15
This is the way I see the OSU path to victory. One upset, no bonus for PSU, Brock pin, Heil dominates, and Joseph and McCutcheson lose. How likely do you (or don't you) think this is?
125 - Piccininni strikes lightning in a bottle and wins, OSU 3-0
133 - Brock decks Carpenter, OSU 9-0
141 - Heil bonuses Gulibon, OSU 13-0
149 - Zain decision, OSU 13-3
157 - Nolf decision, OSU 13-6
165 - Rogers decision, OSU 16-6
174 - Hall decision, OSU 16-9
184 - Bo decision, OSU 16-12
197 - Weigel decision, OSU 19-12
285 - Nevills decision, OSU 19-15
This is the way I see the OSU path to victory. One upset, no bonus for PSU, Brock pin, Heil dominates, and Joseph and McCutcheson lose. How likely do you (or don't you) think this is?
And little better with fewer teams and more competitions, but, yeah, you got the idea.
Something like < 1%. 125 <10% chance; 141 < 10%; 157 < 10%. So I'm saying the likelihood of all three occurring is < 1%.
I wouldn't reserve Picc upset at 125 as "the upset" that has to happen. Just more so stating that they need an upset in general. I feel skiddish about this match, I have no idea why.
When you start looking at things carefully, PSU winning looks more and more likely. I was just highlighting three matches that were highly unlikely to go the projected way. Rogers winning by decision seems unlikely. If he would win, I think it would be through some flukish pin. What's more likely to me is that Cenzo will build a solid lead and winds up sticking Rogers when Rogers tries to force something late. I'm feeling pretty confident about Sunday.
Agreed. I guess I dont understand the full strength comment when we won both handily.
Much more likely for a big PSU lead, at the end of the dual, than this particular scenario.
You forget that PSU wasn't at full strength either. Cortez has been out and PSU gave up bonus in both of those duals at 133 and most likely will on Sunday.
Yea, I went 22-11 (chickened out on a Zain bonus win) in my prediction. Could be as high as 25/26-8 in my view. I have a feeling something weird could happen in this match, but we can obviously let it play out.
Not to mention we weren't at full strength either with Cortez out. You wrestle with who you got and against who the other team puts out there.
Heil vs Jimmy back in the day
http://www.flowrestling.org/video/5...bon-derry-vs-dean-heil-st-edward#.WKeFDzsrKM8
http://www.flowrestling.org/video/5...bon-derry-vs-dean-heil-st-edward#.WKeFDzsrKM8
Also, they are quoting a specific Dual Ranking - Intermat's Dual Ranking. There are several Dual Rankings, and virtually all the Tournament Rankings, have PSU #1. Intermat themselves has the PSU wrestler ranked higher at 7 of the 10 weight classes (125, 149, 157, 165, 174, 184 and HWT), so having PSU behind Okie State (both are the only two undefeated dual teams in the nation) doesn't even make sense in Itermat's ranking. Why are they refusing to drop Okie State? Because it's their ranking and they can....
The statement about full strength is beyond silly. First, Penn State was without their 33 pound starter. Well except Cortez is injured and George is now the starting 33 pounder and now Penn State at full strength includes George. Injuries happen. Iowa had Stoll for a few matches. The kid was injured and we did wrestle Iowa at the full strength? They had not a single starter sitting out.
Ohio State. Yeah, they sat Jordan. After the match was for all practical purposes decided.
There is a reason Penn State is the favorite. Penn State has 7 kids perceived to be to one degree or another better than their Cowboy opponents. Okie St has 3 kids perceived to be better to one degree or another.
The reason they wrestle is to see who is better and a couple Cowboy upsets may make things really interesting.
Implying Penn State hasn't been tested because Iowa had an injured heavyweight and Ohio State held out their 74 pounder because the match outcome was already determined could possibly be one of the weakest posts I have read in awhile
Ohio State. Yeah, they sat Jordan. After the match was for all practical purposes decided.
There is a reason Penn State is the favorite. Penn State has 7 kids perceived to be to one degree or another better than their Cowboy opponents. Okie St has 3 kids perceived to be better to one degree or another.
The reason they wrestle is to see who is better and a couple Cowboy upsets may make things really interesting.
Implying Penn State hasn't been tested because Iowa had an injured heavyweight and Ohio State held out their 74 pounder because the match outcome was already determined could possibly be one of the weakest posts I have read in awhile
100% sure that there is 0% chance of this happening. We win this thing comfortably.
Wouldn't Piccininni and Rodgers winning at 25 and 65 be two upsets, not one? Additionally, I would rate the probability of Okie State outscoring PSU 7-0 in bonus as a mathematical limit approaching 0%. What's the last dual PSU was outscored in bonus, let alone outscored in bonus by 7 points?
it's all for their marketing hype. a lot was revealed on the last FRL where they talked about their guiding principles (Flo's)....
You could classify Rogers winning as an upset, but the 165 match is more of a tossup in my opinion. Rogers has performed well against top guys before. Suriano has separated himself from the field at 125 more than Joseph has.
Not sure I agree with that. VinJo is ranked #4 and was right there with both the #1 and #3 ranked wrestlers over last month. Rodgers is #8, has lost 4 times and a couple of the losses were to UR wrestlers (the other 2 to the #7 and #12 ranked wrestlers). Based on recent performance, I'd say VinJo is a definite slight favorite.
The math suggests we win convincingly
The heart says we blow the doors off.
The eyeball says it should be closer than the predictions.
The memory says something wild will happen that the paper can't predict.
I'm going 22-12 good guys.
The heart says we blow the doors off.
The eyeball says it should be closer than the predictions.
The memory says something wild will happen that the paper can't predict.
I'm going 22-12 good guys.
Rogers is very un-OSU in his approach and can catch opponents in unusual situations through his unorthodox style. However, it just as likely he does something crazy and gets stuck. But, yeah, I have Cenzo in this one. I think he learned from the Stanford match.
Cenzo v Rogers is a good topic. I've seen Rogers enough to know he's a dangerous match-up for anyone. Just guessing most have not seen him, so they really don't know.
If Cenzo controls the bout and keeps Rogers from his offense, including some of the funky turning combinations he tries, it's a likely Cenzo win, say by 3 or 4 points. The other thing to mention is that Rogers is susceptible to getting turned too. It'll be a fun bout.
If Cenzo controls the bout and keeps Rogers from his offense, including some of the funky turning combinations he tries, it's a likely Cenzo win, say by 3 or 4 points. The other thing to mention is that Rogers is susceptible to getting turned too. It'll be a fun bout.
Cinzo is wrestling very tough right now...Very confident....Just needs to watch the throws and he will put up big points against Rogers....I say major by the way he is performing...He does not want to win matches by regular decisions....
Similar threads
