PSU - OSU predictions?
- Thread starter okinburg1
- Start date
125: Suriano Wdec 3-0
133: Carpenter Lfall 3-6
141: Jimmy Ldec 3-9
149: Zain Wdec 6-9
157: Nolf Wmajor 10-9
165: Cenzo Wdec 13-9
174: Hall Ldec 13-12
184: Bo Wdec 16-12
197: Cutch Ldec 16-15
285: Nick Wdec 19-15
Considering this one is on the road, I went conservative. PSU is a young squad, with 2 true freshman, a RS freshman, and NN grinding out his first full season. I have worst-case, PSU loses 19-15, and best case a PSU 24-11 win. I really wanted to give Hall the win, but with what i consider to be 4 toss-up matches, someone is likely to lose. So PSU takes all but one toss-up. Thats a good night on the road vs #2.
133: Carpenter Lfall 3-6
141: Jimmy Ldec 3-9
149: Zain Wdec 6-9
157: Nolf Wmajor 10-9
165: Cenzo Wdec 13-9
174: Hall Ldec 13-12
184: Bo Wdec 16-12
197: Cutch Ldec 16-15
285: Nick Wdec 19-15
Considering this one is on the road, I went conservative. PSU is a young squad, with 2 true freshman, a RS freshman, and NN grinding out his first full season. I have worst-case, PSU loses 19-15, and best case a PSU 24-11 win. I really wanted to give Hall the win, but with what i consider to be 4 toss-up matches, someone is likely to lose. So PSU takes all but one toss-up. Thats a good night on the road vs #2.
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the Nicks drilling......
http://www.flowrestling.org/video/7...ick-suriano-drilling-leg-attacks#.WKEBFTsrKM8
http://www.flowrestling.org/video/7...ick-suriano-drilling-leg-attacks#.WKEBFTsrKM8
Except Hall beat him easily at Scuffle. It wasn't even competitive.
What are these four toss-ups you speak of? I see PSU favored at 125, 149, 157, 174, 184, and 285, and OSU favored at 133, 141, and 197. I see one toss-up, at 165, and even there I would give PSU a slight edge.
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Brock has pinned 1 guy this year.
Carpenter has been pinned 0 times this year, despite wrestling 1, 4, 5, 6 and 17.
I don't see him getting stuck.
Carpenter has been pinned 0 times this year, despite wrestling 1, 4, 5, 6 and 17.
I don't see him getting stuck.
Brock did pin Brewer last year.
If Carpenter can force Brock into only leg attacks, I agree with you. If Brock gets to work upper body, he's real dangerous there.
You can't call it a tossup when they wrestled a month ago and it wasn't close. Might as well call them all toss ups then
People have under-sold PSU against both Iowa and tO$U.... I see this dual going about the same as those two...IOW, PSU winning 7 of 10 weights and the bonus battle by something of the order 10-3 or thereabouts. Add it all up and you get PSU 31 - Pokes 12.
We can all make whatever bets we want. A bet with him is understood as a nonwagering type of bet.
Yeah. They have been losing those toss up matches frequently. Sarcasm.
The last time Hall wrestled the Okie St kid he dominated him. Hall losing is not a tossup lost, it is an upset.
Penn State 27
Oklahoma St 8
125 - #2 Suriano MD (12-4) vs #11 Piccininni, PSU 4-0
133 - #3 Brock TF (22-7) vs UNR Carpenter, OkSt 4-5
141 - #1 Heil DEC (4-2) vs #11 Gulibon, OkSt 4-8
149 - #1 ZPain DEC (9-3) vs #2 Collica, OkSt 7-8
157 - #1 Nolf MD (17-7) vs #6 JoJo Smith, PSU 11-8
165 - #4 Joseph DEC (9-5) vs #8 C.Rogers, PSU 14-8
174 - #7 M. Hall MD (13-4) vs #9 Crutchmer, PSU 18-8
184 - #2 Bo DEC (10-5) vs #6 N. Boyd, PSU 21-8
197 - #9 McCutcheon DEC (2-1, TB1) vs #8 Weigel, PSU 24-8
285 - #3 Nevills DEC (4-2) vs #6 Schafer, PSU 27-8
Oklahoma St 8
125 - #2 Suriano MD (12-4) vs #11 Piccininni, PSU 4-0
133 - #3 Brock TF (22-7) vs UNR Carpenter, OkSt 4-5
141 - #1 Heil DEC (4-2) vs #11 Gulibon, OkSt 4-8
149 - #1 ZPain DEC (9-3) vs #2 Collica, OkSt 7-8
157 - #1 Nolf MD (17-7) vs #6 JoJo Smith, PSU 11-8
165 - #4 Joseph DEC (9-5) vs #8 C.Rogers, PSU 14-8
174 - #7 M. Hall MD (13-4) vs #9 Crutchmer, PSU 18-8
184 - #2 Bo DEC (10-5) vs #6 N. Boyd, PSU 21-8
197 - #9 McCutcheon DEC (2-1, TB1) vs #8 Weigel, PSU 24-8
285 - #3 Nevills DEC (4-2) vs #6 Schafer, PSU 27-8
I won't argue too much with that view. The 197 bout is darn close to a toss-up IMO, but I'll give a slight edge to OSU. Should be a close one though.
125: Suriano major ...4-0
133: Carpenter tech 4-5
141: Jimmy Ldec... 4-8
149: Zain Wmajor 9-8
157: Nolf Wtech 14-8
165: Cenzo Wdec. 17-8
174: Hall Wmajor 21-8
184: Bo Wfall 27-8
197: Cutch Ldec 27-11
285: Nick Wmajor 31-11
Could be worse as Zain and Hall could also get falls..
133: Carpenter tech 4-5
141: Jimmy Ldec... 4-8
149: Zain Wmajor 9-8
157: Nolf Wtech 14-8
165: Cenzo Wdec. 17-8
174: Hall Wmajor 21-8
184: Bo Wfall 27-8
197: Cutch Ldec 27-11
285: Nick Wmajor 31-11
Could be worse as Zain and Hall could also get falls..
125 - Suriano dec, 3-0
133 - Brock tf, 3-5
141 - Heil dec, 3-8
149 - Zain major, 7-8
157 - Nolf major, 11-8
165 - Joseph dec, 14-8
174 - Hall dec, 17-8
184 - Bo dec, 20-8
197 - Weigel dec, 20-11
285 - Nevills dec, 23-11
133 - Brock tf, 3-5
141 - Heil dec, 3-8
149 - Zain major, 7-8
157 - Nolf major, 11-8
165 - Joseph dec, 14-8
174 - Hall dec, 17-8
184 - Bo dec, 20-8
197 - Weigel dec, 20-11
285 - Nevills dec, 23-11
Younz cauliflower-eared guys are being way, way too conservative. Just as younz were with da OSU. Here’s the call, give or take a point or two…
125 - #2 Suriano MD #11 Piccininni, PSU 4-0
133 - #3 Brock TF UNR Carpenter, OkSt 4-5
141 - #1 Heil MD #11 Gulibon, OkSt 4-9
149 - #1 ZPain DEC #2 Collica, OkSt 7-9
157 - #1 Nolf TF #6 JoJo Smith, PSU 12-9
165 - #4 Joseph MD #8 C.Rogers, PSU 16-9
174 - #7 M. Hall DEC #9 Crutchmer, PSU 19-9
184 - #2 Bo Nickal MD #6 N. Boyd, PSU 23-9
197 - #8 Weigel DEC #11 McCutcheon PSU 23-12
285 - #3 Nevills DEC #6 Schafer PSU 26-12
Bottom line should the Pokes not have a substantial lead after 141 they’re going down and they’re going down hard. I wouldn’t be surprised if I am omitting a pin. Thank you.
Even if Heil beats Jimmy, there will not be bonus points.
Heil doesn't bonus anyone with a pulse, and Jimmy is definitely trending up. I'm thinking a 4-2 score.
I really want Jimmy to upset him. What a story it would be. I'd say he has a 20% chance for the upset.
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Z-N-B o/u ?
Wreck Hall points o/u vs Crutcher ?
Let's go:
ZNB o/u: 13.5
Hall vs Crutchmer: 9.5
Heil doesn't bonus anyone with a pulse, and Jimmy is definitely trending up. I'm thinking a 4-2 score.
I really want Jimmy to upset him. What a story it would be. I'd say he has a 20% chance for the upset.
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Z-N-B o/u ?
Wreck Hall points o/u vs Crutcher ?
Let's go:
ZNB o/u: 13.5
Hall vs Crutchmer: 9.5
Preview article:
http://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Features/2017/February/16/NWCA-National-Duals-preview
(Great pic in the article)
http://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Features/2017/February/16/NWCA-National-Duals-preview
(Great pic in the article)
I'm assuming that the small mat will keep some matches closer than expected plus home influence of the officials. Here goes my conservative approach.
Suriano Dec. 3-0
Brock. TF. 3-5
Heil. Dec. 3-8
Zain. Dec. 7-8
Nolf. MD. 11-8
Joseph. Dec. 14-8
Hall Dec. 17-8
Nickal. Dec. 20-8
Weigel. Dec. 20- 11
Nevills. Dec. 23- 11
Being conservative because of what I mentioned before, it looks like OSU would need 2 upsets to tie the match 17-17. Let's assume they get one upset from my choices.
Still 20-14 PSU.
Suriano Dec. 3-0
Brock. TF. 3-5
Heil. Dec. 3-8
Zain. Dec. 7-8
Nolf. MD. 11-8
Joseph. Dec. 14-8
Hall Dec. 17-8
Nickal. Dec. 20-8
Weigel. Dec. 20- 11
Nevills. Dec. 23- 11
Being conservative because of what I mentioned before, it looks like OSU would need 2 upsets to tie the match 17-17. Let's assume they get one upset from my choices.
Still 20-14 PSU.
You gave Zain 4 for a dec.
I can't imagine only 2 bonus points outside of 133. There will be one pi$$ed wrestling community if the pokes poke that much.
Not a complete novice but when you say small mat, what does that actually mean?
Mills
There's a min and max diameter mat that the NCAA sanctions. OSU's is close to the minimum, if not @the minimum.
OSU will be favorite at two weights:
133, The only question here is how many bonus pts Brock will get. I'll take a tech here.
141,Gulibon has been wrestling great but Heil has one loss in the last two seasons. Because of Heil's propensity to wrestle close matches, an upset is possible but unlikely. Heil by dec.
Two weights I would consider toss-ups:
165, Rodgers is a great scrambler and can take a wrestler to his back from any position, truly dangerous. Joseph is more fundamentally sound. This one is difficult to pick, guess I will give it to Rodgers at home, but won't be surprised at all if Joseph grinds out a win. Rodgers by dec. This one is the wildcard.
197, Both wrestlers very solid this year, only losing to some of the better guys at this weight. Cutch has the advantage on his feet, Weigel is tremendous on top. I'll take McCutcheon to convert a low single and maybe avoid having to take bottom. Cutch dec.
PSU will be favorite at six weights, for OSU to win this dual they will need to will all of the above matches and pull an upset somewhere. I will list the weights from what I consider the least likely to see an upset to most:
157, Funny, after the scuffle last year many thought Smith would close the gap with Nolf. But after getting majored at NCAAs and a lackluster season this year, the question now is how may bonus pts will Smith give up. Nolf by Mdec.
149, Some people believe Retherford is vulnerable after the close match at Iowa and even because Jordan got two takedowns before he got techfalled! I'm not one of those people. Collica will try and slow things down and wrestle to keep it close, not to win. I'll just say a decision for Zain but a major wouldn't surprise me.
184, Boyd took 4th at 84 last year and even upset Dean, so I'll give him a very small chance for an upset here. But he's as likely to get pinned as pull the upset. Nickal by major.
125, Suriano has way to much horsepower for Piccininni. He's a freshman that doesn't look like or wrestle like a freshman. Suriano by dec but could easy see a major.
285, Nevills and Schafer have beat the same wrestlers by similar scores. Schafer has been a pleasant surprise for OSU this year. He's a very athletic heavy but so is Nevills, and he's bigger. Nevills by dec. Schafer is banged up and not sure to go. If he doesn't OSU is in big trouble and Nevills will tech his back up.
174, I know, Hall almost majored Crutchmer at the Scuffle. I only give Crutchmer a small chance for the upset because of the situation. Hall's loss at Iowa, in a hostile environment, to a good but not great wrestler, the similarity gives me cause for picking him as the most likely to get upset for PSU. Great as he is, Hall is still a freshman with little varsity experience. Still, I feel very good taking Hall by dec.
So I have it 7 to 3 for PSU, 23-11. If Schafer doesn't go, 25-11
133, The only question here is how many bonus pts Brock will get. I'll take a tech here.
141,Gulibon has been wrestling great but Heil has one loss in the last two seasons. Because of Heil's propensity to wrestle close matches, an upset is possible but unlikely. Heil by dec.
Two weights I would consider toss-ups:
165, Rodgers is a great scrambler and can take a wrestler to his back from any position, truly dangerous. Joseph is more fundamentally sound. This one is difficult to pick, guess I will give it to Rodgers at home, but won't be surprised at all if Joseph grinds out a win. Rodgers by dec. This one is the wildcard.
197, Both wrestlers very solid this year, only losing to some of the better guys at this weight. Cutch has the advantage on his feet, Weigel is tremendous on top. I'll take McCutcheon to convert a low single and maybe avoid having to take bottom. Cutch dec.
PSU will be favorite at six weights, for OSU to win this dual they will need to will all of the above matches and pull an upset somewhere. I will list the weights from what I consider the least likely to see an upset to most:
157, Funny, after the scuffle last year many thought Smith would close the gap with Nolf. But after getting majored at NCAAs and a lackluster season this year, the question now is how may bonus pts will Smith give up. Nolf by Mdec.
149, Some people believe Retherford is vulnerable after the close match at Iowa and even because Jordan got two takedowns before he got techfalled! I'm not one of those people. Collica will try and slow things down and wrestle to keep it close, not to win. I'll just say a decision for Zain but a major wouldn't surprise me.
184, Boyd took 4th at 84 last year and even upset Dean, so I'll give him a very small chance for an upset here. But he's as likely to get pinned as pull the upset. Nickal by major.
125, Suriano has way to much horsepower for Piccininni. He's a freshman that doesn't look like or wrestle like a freshman. Suriano by dec but could easy see a major.
285, Nevills and Schafer have beat the same wrestlers by similar scores. Schafer has been a pleasant surprise for OSU this year. He's a very athletic heavy but so is Nevills, and he's bigger. Nevills by dec. Schafer is banged up and not sure to go. If he doesn't OSU is in big trouble and Nevills will tech his back up.
174, I know, Hall almost majored Crutchmer at the Scuffle. I only give Crutchmer a small chance for the upset because of the situation. Hall's loss at Iowa, in a hostile environment, to a good but not great wrestler, the similarity gives me cause for picking him as the most likely to get upset for PSU. Great as he is, Hall is still a freshman with little varsity experience. Still, I feel very good taking Hall by dec.
So I have it 7 to 3 for PSU, 23-11. If Schafer doesn't go, 25-11
PSU should win this. Okie State going to need an upset or two to pull off a victory. If there would be one upset I could see Rodgers pinning Cenzo. Not likely, but because it is away and Rodgers is a pinner...
Now that Hall is IN the PSU line up, I think he is going to hammer Crutch worse this time.
Give me Jimmy Gulibon!!!
Collica WILL stall his butt off the entire match.
Cutch will probably lose this away match.
Nolf will major Smith.
Bo might pin Boyd, should at least get the major.
Now that Hall is IN the PSU line up, I think he is going to hammer Crutch worse this time.
Give me Jimmy Gulibon!!!
Collica WILL stall his butt off the entire match.
Cutch will probably lose this away match.
Nolf will major Smith.
Bo might pin Boyd, should at least get the major.
This is the first one pretty close to what I'm thinking. It's not a good set of matchups for OkState, but then again PSU is a matchup nightmare for anybody this year. It could be worse (or better for PSU) if Zain and Nolf get bonus (not out of the question by any means) and if Rogers gets caught trying to force something against Cenzo. Not to mention the chance of Bo getting bonue. I'd love to see Jimmy upset Heil but no one ever seems to do it, despite the close matches.
I had to correct my mom on Saturday, after I heard her say 'that poor George Carpenter.'
I said 'why?'
She: 'it looks like he's just been thrown to the wolves.'
Me: "He started wrestling in 9th grade and won 2 matches. His Junior year he was a state champ in North Carolina. Casey raves about how hard he works, and he doesn't get pinned. Tomasello couldn't pin him--and he tried everything, including postponing the Tech Fall to give himself a better chance for it. Richards couldn't even tech him.
Nah, it's more like he looked for a pack of wolves and wanted to go run with them."
Yes! Similar to both Iowa AND Ohio State, it's much more likely that OkSt will win only 2, than it is they'll win 5. And if Gulibon manages to finally solve Heil, it'll be an eerily spooky Gallagher-Iba.
I'll mostly join you, and will go in between. Pokes'll get Brock & Heil and only one of either Rogers OR Weigel, but not both. And, like you note, quite possibly neither.
Carpenter won't win on Saturday, but he's impressed me enough to think his back won't be stuck on that mat.
