I think we agree here. I said he could make the finals with how crazy the weight is. My only contention would be if I had to pick people to place top 4 at this point, I'd lean on guys with larger track records and/or have done it before.
If in the next few weeks, he sweeps Ayala, Peterson, and Smith that changes my perspective considerably. Maybe even if he only goes 2-1, honestly.
Could also be recency bias. I've never been high on Kilkeary and the fact he (should have) lost that match tells me he hasn't made the enormous jump from where he was a year ago when you had him ranked as a good, not great recruit.