Willie's Crystal Ball for 2025

[Ian]

I just think, similar to dice, that anyone who picks against Carter in any NCAA match is overthinking it. He hasn't lost in 3 entire seasons and I don't think that changes anytime soon

Carter is the GOAT! He’s lost two matches and redeemed himself vs. both opponents. Going for five after winning two with broken wrist and another on one leg shutting out his elite level competition. Not enough is said about either accomplishment but he is the most competitive wrestler ever. He has bigger aspirations and returned for some NIL and to enjoy himself before he elevates. Good for him. See you in March as Keck, who is outstanding, but won’t have had the training to contend with CStar at the end of the season and that’s all that matters!

 

[Pennstate1985]

Carter is the GOAT! He’s lost two matches and redeemed himself vs. both opponents. Going for five after winning two with broken wrist and another on one leg shutting out his elite level competition. Not enough is said about either accomplishment but he is the most competitive wrestler ever. He has bigger aspirations and returned for some NIL and to enjoy himself before he elevates. Good for him. See you in March as Keck, who is outstanding, but won’t have had the training to contend with CStar at the end of the season and that’s all that matters!

I think Carter's performance at the 2024 NCAAs was one of the greatest performances ever. He shut out three successive champions/finalists. On one leg no less. I'm not sure that's ever been done and needs to be recognized as an incredible feat.

 

[smalls103]

Pardon me if I misunderstood, but I assumed one of the main differences/benefits between the Crystal Ball rankings and the regular Preseason rankings was the Crystal Ball rankings didn’t require a lot of data on head to head matchups.

yes. sure, that's true.

bottom line is, i didn't feel comfortable or confident slotting anyone in at 197.

 

[nerfstate]

yes. sure, that's true.

bottom line is, i didn't feel comfortable or confident slotting anyone in at 197.

For the record, I'm a big fan of the Crystal Ball format, and especially so with the Brain on the case. I find it way more compelling to know what someone that follows the sport as closely as you do thinks the pecking order is going to be than what some rote formula predicts where judgement only comes into play at the margins. Unless that formula is written by @Unbiased_football_fan, anyway. I'll eat his data any time he wants to share it.

 

[mjmirv]

Willie,

I shouldn’t have used the word troll job. I guess what I meant was I felt like you were undervaluing Penn State by 15 or 20 just to make it seem like the team race was more competitive than it will be. Clearly 148 is an incredible achievement. Here’s my breakdown as of right now.

125- 19 Lilledahl
133- 8 Davis
141- 19 Bartlett
149- 19 SVN
157- 19 Kasak
165- 26 MM
174- 21 Levi
184- 23 Carter
197- 8 Barr
HWT- 23 Kerk

I actually think we could score more points with today’s three-point takedown. My initial projection was 189.5 but I lowered a few just to give me some wiggle room.

 

[smalls103]

yeah. troll job, eye roll, drunk, fishing for clicks, engagement farming......

i don't mind disagreement. i'm not always 100% right.

but give me a break with the fake outrage. it's HR-esque in 'you have ulterior motives!'.

if you think 148pts, in October, is offensive, idk what to tell you other than I'm the Brain, and you are irrational.

Anywho...185 points.....

Nothing in your projections seem unreasonable. But that's 8 Top 3's and 10 AA's. It's the perfect tournament and the best case scenario.

And you you think that it's ME that's on the extreme end?

 

[NittanyChris]

yeah. troll job, eye roll, drunk, fishing for clicks, engagement farming......

i don't mind disagreement. i'm not always 100% right.

but give me a break with the fake outrage. it's HR-esque in 'you have ulterior motives!'.

if you think 148pts, in October, is offensive, idk what to tell you other than I'm the Brain, and you are irrational.

Anywho...185 points.....

Nothing in your projections seem unreasonable. But that's 8 Top 3's and 10 AA's. It's the perfect tournament and the best case scenario.

And you you think that it's ME that's on the extreme end?

You have 5 Penn State guys in the Finals and you have them losing 3 of the 5 matches. I’m sure someone can supply the winning percentage of Cael’s guys in Finals matches in the past 5 years and I’m also sure it’s a hell of a lot better than 40%.

It’s all in good fun but the statistics are not in your favor.

 

[mjmirv]

Willie,

I apologize for saying troll job. Relax. You are still my favorite wrestling journalist. I think you are way under, but it’s ok.

185 does seem crazy, but I don’t think my projections are nuts except maybe 125. But I think Luke is that good.

It’s a fun discussion. Drink a Bud Heavy and be happy. Wrestling season is almost here.

 

[SJP80]

I think Carter's performance at the 2024 NCAAs was one of the greatest performances ever. He shut out three successive champions/finalists. On one leg no less. I'm not sure that's ever been done and needs to be recognized as an incredible feat.

Please get the story right …. The only time that is an incredible feat is if the initials are SL and you wrestle for Iowa

 

[tikk10]

I'd pick Carter over Keck right now but it would hardly be a shock if Carter came up short. First, Carter is frequently injured and has a style that increases the possibility of injury. But there's also something we sometime see with seniors and that's coasting just as the finish line approaches, and finding themselves in close matches that shouldn't be close matches. And greatness doesn't necessarily matter. It happened to Zain in the finals of his senior year and it happened to Nolf vs Hidlay in the semis--wins, yes, but performances below the standards they set, despite the gravity of the match. Also, Keckeisen isn't just good, he's very good--he majored everyone he wrestled last year except one. Of course, he could coast when he nears the finish line too; he's been around just as long as Carter.

 

[Hotshoe]

Wow. Someone pissed in someone's Cheerios.

 

[Nitlion1986]

yeah. troll job, eye roll, drunk, fishing for clicks, engagement farming......

i don't mind disagreement. i'm not always 100% right.

but give me a break with the fake outrage. it's HR-esque in 'you have ulterior motives!'.

if you think 148pts, in October, is offensive, idk what to tell you other than I'm the Brain, and you are irrational.

Anywho...185 points.....

Nothing in your projections seem unreasonable. But that's 8 Top 3's and 10 AA's. It's the perfect tournament and the best case scenario.

And you you think that it's ME that's on the extreme end?

Last year 6 finalists, a 3rd and a 5th, and 2 round of 12s.
2023 5 finalists, 2 3rds and a 7th.
Considering the last 2 years have each had 7 top 3s and 8 AAs the idea of 8 top 3s with 10AAs isn't outrageous nor I think the perfect tournament. Getting closer though.

 

[amattaro]

yeah. troll job, eye roll, drunk, fishing for clicks, engagement farming......

i don't mind disagreement. i'm not always 100% right.

but give me a break with the fake outrage. it's HR-esque in 'you have ulterior motives!'.

if you think 148pts, in October, is offensive, idk what to tell you other than I'm the Brain, and you are irrational.

Anywho...185 points.....

Nothing in your projections seem unreasonable. But that's 8 Top 3's and 10 AA's. It's the perfect tournament and the best case scenario.

And you you think that it's ME that's on the extreme end?

Sorry, Willie, SHALLENGE LOAST!

 

[backdrft76]

Pyles picked Carter and Levi, as well as Mes and Kerk, so there's that.

 

[a_mshaffer]

For the record, I'm a big fan of the Crystal Ball format, and especially so with the Brain on the case. I find it way more compelling to know what someone that follows the sport as closely as you do thinks the pecking order is going to be than what some rote formula predicts where judgement only comes into play at the margins. Unless that formula is written by @Unbiased_football_fan, anyway. I'll eat his data any time he wants to share it.

true - crystal ball = prediction, all others=rankings...

 

[Pennstate1985]

Willie,

I shouldn’t have used the word troll job. I guess what I meant was I felt like you were undervaluing Penn State by 15 or 20 just to make it seem like the team race was more competitive than it will be. Clearly 148 is an incredible achievement. Here’s my breakdown as of right now.

125- 19 Lilledahl
133- 8 Davis
141- 19 Bartlett
149- 19 SVN
157- 19 Kasak
165- 26 MM
174- 21 Levi
184- 23 Carter
197- 8 Barr
HWT- 23 Kerk

I actually think we could score more points with today’s three-point takedown. My initial projection was 189.5 but I lowered a few just to give me some wiggle room.

That's 8 finalists. Seems high but supportable.

 

[jack66]

Brooks and Hidlay bumped up and dominated the field last year. Aaron had bonus wins over Elam, Buchanan, Glazier, Allred, Smith, and Sloan. Trent had bonus wins over Allred, Cardenas, and Beard among others. That is most of the preseason top ten.

I'm not suggesting Barr is as good as Brooks or Hidlay but I suspect there is room on the podium for a kid with his resume.

 

[AndEEss]

His fans still have a fatwa out on Mitchell due to his “dirty” wrestling.

I guess they got temporary amnesia watching Tyler Berger

Yeah, Berger wasn't exactly a candidate for canonization.

 

[Nitlion1986]

Yeah, Berger wasn't exactly a candidate for canonization.

He struggled when he was hunting heads out of his league though.

 

[Idahopennstatefan]

Come on! We are living with first world problems if as wrestling fans our biggest problem is we aren't winning by enough points.
I am fine will Willie's projections. Do I agree with him completely? No, but these are his and he put them out there for scrutiny.

We as fans are real winners if Parker and Carter lace them up. I hope we see a Carr Vs. O'toole rivalry. Won't be as good as they are in different conferences but who in their right mind complains when quality wrestlers toe the line. Carter is great. He is moving up and until he has established himself the existing champ to me has the advantage at that weight. I don't have a problem with it. #1 seed #2 seed at nationals does it really matter as long as they are not 1 and 4 or 2 and 3. Sometimes seeding gets stupid and we end up with a finals match in the semi's.

Enjoy the "Crystal Ball" as the journalism it is, cheer for the blue and white, (Occasionally Blue and Pink) and enjoy another year of sweet hawkeye tears. See you in March!

 

[johnstownsteel]

Just for fun i went back and looked at my final team projections. This is what i had for PSU in previous final editions of Crystal Ball (i don't have a record of what i had them at preseason.)

2024 Projected - 169
2024 Actual - 172.5
2024 Crystal Ball

2023 Projected - 129
2023 Actual - 137.5
2023 Crystal Ball

2022 Projected - 129
2022 Actual - 131.5
2022 Crystal Ball

2021 Projected - 98
2021 Actual - 113.5
2021 Crystal Ball
(the biggest miss here was a 7.5 differential on Michael Beard)

i do know that my values tend to be a touch low on bonus, but not much.

Do you have a breakdown of your first crystal balls of the season in comparison to nationals?

 

[SJP80]

Do you have a breakdown of your first crystal balls of the season in comparison to nationals?

No he initially stated "i don't have a record of what i had them at preseason." That would be a much better (like for like) comparison. I suspect that comparison would not be nearly as close as the final one is. Obv many more unknowns for the preseason version, while the final version you know who is wrestling and their trajectory is much easier to project.

 

[Bob_Anderson]

No he initially stated "i don't have a record of what i had them at preseason." That would be a much better (like for like) comparison. I suspect that comparison would not be nearly as close as the final one is. Obv many more unknowns for the preseason version, while the final version you know who is wrestling and their trajectory is much easier to project.

*how dare you take issue with my preseason crystal ball predictions. My postseason crystal ball analysis is superb*

 

[Pennstate1985]

Please get the story right …. The only time that is an incredible feat is if the initials are SL and you wrestle for Iowa

He's also better at getting pinned too.

 

[smalls103]

i found monthly Crystal Ball team projections from last year

Nov 7th

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	159
2	Cornell	95
3	Michigan	76
4	NC State	71
5	Iowa	69
6	Virginia Tech	68
7	Missouri	67
8	Nebraska	67
9	Arizona St.	65
10	Ohio St.	54

Dec 6

1	Penn St.	170
2	Cornell	84
3	Michigan	75
4	NC State	73
5	Iowa	70
6	Nebraska	68
7	Arizona St.	67
8	Missouri	60
9	Virginia Tech	56
10	Ohio St.	54

JAN 15

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	164
2	Iowa	79
3	Cornell	76
4	Michigan	68
5t.	NC State	67
5t.	Missouri	67
7	Iowa St.	65
8	OK State	61
9	Virginia Tech	58
10t.	Nebraska	55
10t.	Arizona St.	55

FEB 7

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	171
2	Cornell	85
3	Michigan	72
4	OK State	67
5	Iowa	66
6	Iowa St.	65
7	Missouri	63
8	NC State	62
9	Virginia Tech	60
10	Nebraska	57

Final (Before NCAA) Including Actual Results for Comparison

Rank	Actual	Team	Qualifiers	PTS	Actual	AA's	Actual
1	1	Penn St.	10	169	172.5	9	8
2	11	NC State	10	81	49.5	6	3
3	5	Iowa	9	79	67	5	4
4	3	Michigan	9	73	71.5	5	4
5	4	Iowa St.	9	72	68.5	4	4
6t.	9	Nebraska	9	65	60.5	4	5
6t.	10	OK State	10	65	56	4	3
8	15	Lehigh	8	56	36.5	4	3
9	11	Missouri	10	54	49.5	3	3
10	2	Cornell	10	51	72.5	4	3

 

[mcpat]

I’m sure Carter isn’t paying any attention to all the people picking against him this year. It won’t serve as any extra motivation at all.

 

[Pennstate1985]

i found monthly Crystal Ball team projections from last year

Nov 7th

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	159
2	Cornell	95
3	Michigan	76
4	NC State	71
5	Iowa	69
6	Virginia Tech	68
7	Missouri	67
8	Nebraska	67
9	Arizona St.	65
10	Ohio St.	54

Dec 6

1	Penn St.	170
2	Cornell	84
3	Michigan	75
4	NC State	73
5	Iowa	70
6	Nebraska	68
7	Arizona St.	67
8	Missouri	60
9	Virginia Tech	56
10	Ohio St.	54

JAN 15

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	164
2	Iowa	79
3	Cornell	76
4	Michigan	68
5t.	NC State	67
5t.	Missouri	67
7	Iowa St.	65
8	OK State	61
9	Virginia Tech	58
10t.	Nebraska	55
10t.	Arizona St.	55

FEB 7

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	171
2	Cornell	85
3	Michigan	72
4	OK State	67
5	Iowa	66
6	Iowa St.	65
7	Missouri	63
8	NC State	62
9	Virginia Tech	60
10	Nebraska	57

Final (Before NCAA) Including Actual Results for Comparison

Rank	Actual	Team	Qualifiers	PTS	Actual	AA's	Actual
1	1	Penn St.	10	169	172.5	9	8
2	11	NC State	10	81	49.5	6	3
3	5	Iowa	9	79	67	5	4
4	3	Michigan	9	73	71.5	5	4
5	4	Iowa St.	9	72	68.5	4	4
6t.	9	Nebraska	9	65	60.5	4	5
6t.	10	OK State	10	65	56	4	3
8	15	Lehigh	8	56	36.5	4	3
9	11	Missouri	10	54	49.5	3	3
10	2	Cornell	10	51	72.5	4	3

That's pretty good actually. Only real miss was NCST but that was more about them underperforming then you not being right.

 

[smalls103]

here's how the teams that finished Top 15 in the final ncaa standings were projected in Crystal Ball Preseason. i was off most on ISU (who finished 8 spots higher) and NC ST and MIZZ who finished significantly lower

PS Crystal Ball	Team	Final Place	Projected PTS	Actual	Projected AA's	Actual AA's
1	Penn St.	1	159	172.5	8	8
2	Cornell	2	95	72.5	7	3
3	Michigan	3	76	71.5	6	4
4	NC State	11t.	71	49.5	5	3
5	Iowa	5	69 (Nice)	67	5	4
6	Virginia Tech	7	68	64	5	4
7	Missouri	11t.	67	49.5	5	3
8	Nebraska	9	67	60.5	4	5
9	Arizona St.	6	65	64.5	4	4
10	Ohio St.	8	54	64	5	3
11	OK State	10	50	56	3	3
12	Iowa St.	4	49	68.5	2	4
13	SD State	13	35	48.5	2	4
16	N. Iowa	14	30	39.5	1	1
19	Lehigh	15	24	36.5	2	3

 

[smalls103]

That's pretty good actually. Only real miss was NCST but that was more about them underperforming then you not being right.

to add to that, the crazy thing was - their ncaa seeds were set up for them to definitely hit that projection.

it's not like the preseason info/projection was far removed from season performance. they were the same team in DEC that they were after ACC's. things just went sideways for them the last three days.

 

[mcpat]

But would they have had those high seeds going thru a B1G season and tournament?

 

[johnstownsteel]

i found monthly Crystal Ball team projections from last year

Nov 7th

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	159
2	Cornell	95
3	Michigan	76
4	NC State	71
5	Iowa	69
6	Virginia Tech	68
7	Missouri	67
8	Nebraska	67
9	Arizona St.	65
10	Ohio St.	54

Dec 6

1	Penn St.	170
2	Cornell	84
3	Michigan	75
4	NC State	73
5	Iowa	70
6	Nebraska	68
7	Arizona St.	67
8	Missouri	60
9	Virginia Tech	56
10	Ohio St.	54

JAN 15

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	164
2	Iowa	79
3	Cornell	76
4	Michigan	68
5t.	NC State	67
5t.	Missouri	67
7	Iowa St.	65
8	OK State	61
9	Virginia Tech	58
10t.	Nebraska	55
10t.	Arizona St.	55

FEB 7

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	171
2	Cornell	85
3	Michigan	72
4	OK State	67
5	Iowa	66
6	Iowa St.	65
7	Missouri	63
8	NC State	62
9	Virginia Tech	60
10	Nebraska	57

Final (Before NCAA) Including Actual Results for Comparison

Rank	Actual	Team	Qualifiers	PTS	Actual	AA's	Actual
1	1	Penn St.	10	169	172.5	9	8
2	11	NC State	10	81	49.5	6	3
3	5	Iowa	9	79	67	5	4
4	3	Michigan	9	73	71.5	5	4
5	4	Iowa St.	9	72	68.5	4	4
6t.	9	Nebraska	9	65	60.5	4	5
6t.	10	OK State	10	65	56	4	3
8	15	Lehigh	8	56	36.5	4	3
9	11	Missouri	10	54	49.5	3	3
10	2	Cornell	10	51	72.5	4	3

Thanks Willie. Nice work even if you do want to beat us down on Twitter. Lol

 

[Chickenman Testa]

i found monthly Crystal Ball team projections from last year

Nov 7th

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	159
2	Cornell	95
3	Michigan	76
4	NC State	71
5	Iowa	69
6	Virginia Tech	68
7	Missouri	67
8	Nebraska	67
9	Arizona St.	65
10	Ohio St.	54

Dec 6

1	Penn St.	170
2	Cornell	84
3	Michigan	75
4	NC State	73
5	Iowa	70
6	Nebraska	68
7	Arizona St.	67
8	Missouri	60
9	Virginia Tech	56
10	Ohio St.	54

JAN 15

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	164
2	Iowa	79
3	Cornell	76
4	Michigan	68
5t.	NC State	67
5t.	Missouri	67
7	Iowa St.	65
8	OK State	61
9	Virginia Tech	58
10t.	Nebraska	55
10t.	Arizona St.	55

FEB 7

Rank	Team	PTS
1	Penn St.	171
2	Cornell	85
3	Michigan	72
4	OK State	67
5	Iowa	66
6	Iowa St.	65
7	Missouri	63
8	NC State	62
9	Virginia Tech	60
10	Nebraska	57

Final (Before NCAA) Including Actual Results for Comparison

Rank	Actual	Team	Qualifiers	PTS	Actual	AA's	Actual
1	1	Penn St.	10	169	172.5	9	8
2	11	NC State	10	81	49.5	6	3
3	5	Iowa	9	79	67	5	4
4	3	Michigan	9	73	71.5	5	4
5	4	Iowa St.	9	72	68.5	4	4
6t.	9	Nebraska	9	65	60.5	4	5
6t.	10	OK State	10	65	56	4	3
8	15	Lehigh	8	56	36.5	4	3
9	11	Missouri	10	54	49.5	3	3
10	2	Cornell	10	51	72.5	4

You had us at a lowly 159 last November 7???

 

[smalls103]

sorry, CT, i was trolling.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

The Wrestling Room is Joseph Welch in response to Willie’s crystal ball underranking (“at long last, have you no sense of decency, sir!”):

 

[smalls103]

But would they have had those high seeds going thru a B1G season and tournament?

i mean, Arrington beat Caleb Henson.
Arrington DNP's, Henson wins title.

Jack wins ACCs and DNP's, Lachlan takes 3rd and places.

Ed Scott beats Andonian, only to lose to him at NCAA in quarters and DNP. Andonian places.

Fishback had wins over Feldkamp (previous AA), Foca (previous AA), Munoz (AA), Pasiuk (AA).

they were legit AA contenders.

 

[Pennstate1985]

i mean, Arrington beat Caleb Henson.
Arrington DNP's, Henson wins title.

Jack wins ACCs and DNP's, Lachlan takes 3rd and places.

Ed Scott beats Andonian, only to lose to him at NCAA in quarters and DNP. Andonian places.

Fishback had wins over Feldkamp (previous AA), Foca (previous AA), Munoz (AA), Pasiuk (AA).

they were legit AA contenders.

I would be interested in your take on why NCST underperformed so much. I understand you'll be gentle to the NCST staff, but I'm actually interested in what went wrong. One guy blowing up is just that. Two doing it is concerning. Three is a trend.

I had NCST doing well similarly to you.

 

[McScoreley]

I would be interested in your take on why NCST underperformed so much. I understand you'll be gentle to the NCST staff, but I'm actually interested in what went wrong. One guy blowing up is just that. Two doing it is concerning. Three is a trend.

I had NCST doing well similarly to you.

2 of them drew a Penn Stater in the blood round.

Ryan Jack did place, albeit lower than Lachlan

 

[El-Jefe]

But would they have had those high seeds going thru a B1G season and tournament?

I can say with 100% certainty that Hidlay would've been the 2 seed after B10s.

But seriously: does it really matter that much? Some would've dropped a couple seeds, and maybe that would've actually helped them.

Example: 133 Orine beat Van Dee and Nagao, lost to Bouzakis and Shawver. He probably would've been a high seed after B10s, but maybe not the 3. That would've helped him greatly -- he drew Postseason Vito in the quarters. He eventually took 8th after losing to Bailey and Shawver in consis.