Willie's Crystal Ball for 2025

[McScoreley]

I liked the show today. Basch called Willie out a couple times and Willie explained his stance. Willie even said after week 2 the crystal ball might say something completely different. As far as Parker over Carter, I watched the match when Parker beat Carter. It wasn't close. Granted it was freestyle and when they were still in high school. I can't get that match out of my head.

I watched Carter get his ass kicked by Kemerer at Big Tens in 2021, that wasn't close and he turned around that result 2 weeks later.

Carter lost to Assad in HS. He lost to Plott also ... that wasn't close either, are you worried about Carter losing to Plott next year if they meet?

I say all that to say this, Carter vs Parker is 100% a thing but using that match to say Keckeisen is a favorite isn't the right logic.

 

[wrestlingfan22]

My confidence for PSU guys winning it all:
1. MM
2. Kerk
3. CSTAR
4. Levi
5. SVN
6. Bartlett
7. LL
8. Kasak
9. Barr
10. Davis

 

[McScoreley]

 

[Nitlion1986]

I'll be expecting to see exactly this from you in March for KYPSW NCAA Tournament edition.

If everybody stays healthy I would be surprised if I am the only one picking something similar.

 

[Jayhouse]

I watched Carter get his ass kicked by Kemerer at Big Tens in 2021, that wasn't close and he turned around that result 2 weeks later.

Carter lost to Assad in HS. He lost to Plott also ... that wasn't close either, are you worried about Carter losing to Plott next year if they meet?

I say all that to say this, Carter vs Parker is 100% a thing but using that match to say Keckeisen is a favorite isn't the right logic.

I'm not saying I think Parker will beat Carter, just that it's not impossible to see Parker win. I have no fear of Plott beating Carter. I think Carter gave Brooks a run for his money in practice and he was smaller. Never knew Carter lost to Assad in high school. Sounds so crazy compared to what they became.

 

[McScoreley]

I'm not saying I think Parker will beat Carter, just that it's not impossible to see Parker win. I have no fear of Plott beating Carter. I think Carter gave Brooks a run for his money in practice and he was smaller. Never knew Carter lost to Assad in high school. Sounds so crazy compared to what they became.

It's absolutely not impossible to see Parker win. My bad but the way you were talking about that HS match made me think you think Carter has little to no chance against Parker because of that match. Agree it wasn't close. Think Parker had 3 TDs and Carter got a 4 off of when Parker had another single and looked like he could score if anything. That match looks worse in folkstyle if anything.

There's a reason why Carter was a blue chipper but not some "can't miss" level recruit. He was getting brutalized early in the room. Something clicked for him early on here.

 

[McScoreley]

I think AB is significantly better than Starocci fwiw. I'd pick Starocci over Keck, but I think there's a much better chance of Keck beating him than Keck beating AB.

I think the AB is way better than Starocci is all based on the fact he is way superior freestyler and more offensive. If ADS and RBY never wrestled, I'm sure just going off styles and results, people would say ADS is better. They're different wrestlers ultimately. There is some revisionist history going on here and we're applying the 2024 AB at 197 back to his first 3 years.

Not counting the 2 defaults, Carter hasn't lost since his freshman year. Brooks has twice and also had more close calls than some remember (including against Kaleb Romero in the dual where he honestly should have been hit for stalling and sent to SV) After his junior year, he and Keckeisen wouldn't wrestle again.

 

[82bordeaux]

To take it a step further, he makes a lot of his money finishing long, extended shots. Looked outstanding doing it this summer, but remember how he struggled a bit at that the previous summer as he was moving up weight. I could see him having some trouble finishing when he's making another weight jump.

I agree with the long, extended shots. Like Carter, he has become very good at sucking those thighs in to finish as a double. Wrestling 197 could definitely pose a problem finishing that way. However, he will be quicker than most of his opponents and has developed a pretty mean ankle pick.
Your points are valid. It will remain to be seen how he handles mat wrestling with these bigger guys. He's been a hammer on top throughout his career. We'll have to see how he does getting out.
He is bigger than most people think. He was walking around at 204 before his decent for Worlds. That weight is surely back on. I'm more worried about how he handles getting back to 184 after this year. That may be a challenge.

 

[js8793]

I agree with the long, extended shots. Like Carter, he has become very good at sucking those thighs in to finish as a double. Wrestling 197 could definitely pose a problem finishing that way. However, he will be quicker than most of his opponents and has developed a pretty mean ankle pick.
Your points are valid. It will remain to be seen how he handles mat wrestling with these bigger guys. He's been a hammer on top throughout his career. We'll have to see how he does getting out.
He is bigger than most people think. He was walking around at 204 before his decent for Worlds. That weight is surely back on. I'm more worried about how he handles getting back to 184 after this year. That may be a challenge.

My prediction is that he underwhelms early, but is wrestling well by March. I would be surprised if he's not a top 15 guy by the end of the year.

204 is pretty small for 197.

 

[Ian]

Willie is trying to create drama and discussion for a season that’s pretty boring without a Penn state influence whether team or individual. If you eliminate PSU from any conversation, what’s there to talk about?

This will be an epic season for PSU. Caels message to DT and everyone else. Can’t me on…. Still waiting for to Taylor and Ruth to graduate? You ain’t seen nothing yet with the next wave! That’s what he’s pitching Blaze, Bo, and Jax. They will take the program to an even higher level! Enjoy the ride.

 

[js8793]

I'm not saying I think Parker will beat Carter, just that it's not impossible to see Parker win. I have no fear of Plott beating Carter. I think Carter gave Brooks a run for his money in practice and he was smaller. Never knew Carter lost to Assad in high school. Sounds so crazy compared to what they became.

Assad has an impressive hitlist going back to high school, but could never string it together consistently. For a guy who never sniffed the round of 12, it's wild how many good guys he's beaten:

Starocci, Plott, Keckeisen, Venz, Poznanski, Ramirez, etc...

I still remember that great cadet bracket where Starocci upset Kennedy with a late takedown only to get sniped by Assad late in the next match. And then Assad went on to make the team and take bronze. Guys in that bracket:

Starocci
Assad
Kennedy
Julien Ramirez
Glazier
Rocky Elam
David Key
Nijenhuis
Foca

 

[McScoreley]

Assad has an impressive hitlist going back to high school, but could never string it together consistently. For a guy who never sniffed the round of 12, it's wild how many good guys he's beaten:

Starocci, Plott, Keckeisen, Venz, Poznanski, Ramirez, etc...

I still remember that great cadet bracket where Starocci upset Kennedy with a late takedown only to get sniped by Assad late in the next match. And then Assad went on to make the team and take bronze. Guys in that bracket:

Starocci
Assad
Kennedy
Julien Ramirez
Glazier
Rocky Elam
David Key
Nijenhuis
Foca

Iowa's Joe Lee

 

[jtothemfp]

I predict Davis will jump another level at 133 just from more time in the room but also looking at him recently, have to imagine the cut to 125 was brutal by the end of last year (which has been confirmed by the coaches and Byers also) Similarly, he is a fiery kid (has to learn to control his emotions better) and I know he's hungry to avenge the end of last year.

"(which has been confirmed by the coaches and Byers also"

Ooooh, I missed this/these. Any chance you could hook a brotha up with a link? tia!

 

[McScoreley]

"(which has been confirmed by the coaches and Byers also"

Ooooh, I missed this/these. Any chance you could hook a brotha up with a link? tia!

I can't find Byers but I specifically recall him saying he expects Davis to redshirt next year (at NCAAs) because there is no way he can get to 125 anymore. It sounds like with Nagao being nicked up and Davis just being ahead that the redshirt isn't likely anymore.

Cael similarly when discussing pulling the redshirt said it makes sense because Davis already has to "discipline himself" down to 125 so he didn't expect he would get any more years out of Braeden at 125.



Davis looks noticeably bigger (without any body fat at all) now than he did even at NCAAs and Willie is already talking about 141.

 

[KlenderJoey]

FWIW:

125 Lilledahl 3
133 Davis 8
141 Bartlett 2
149 Van Ness 2
157 Kasak 5
165 Mesenbrink 1
174 Haines 1
184 Starocci 1
197 Barr 2
HWT Kerk 1

 

[jtothemfp]

I can't find Byers but I specifically recall him saying he expects Davis to redshirt next year (at NCAAs) because there is no way he can get to 125 anymore. It sounds like with Nagao being nicked up and Davis just being ahead that the redshirt isn't likely anymore.

Cael similarly when discussing pulling the redshirt said it makes sense because Davis already has to "discipline himself" down to 125 so he didn't expect he would get any more years out of Braeden at 125.

View embedded media

Davis looks noticeably bigger (without any body fat at all) now than he did even at NCAAs and Willie is already talking about 141.

Thanks so much, homie!

 

[smalls103]

thanks for reading.

i think you guys are over reacting on the finals hth's. 1) listen to the rationales on the show 2) they are pretty insignificant in team point total

197 i'm taking a wait and see approach. Barr is my dude and i hope he crushes it. there just isn't a whole lot of data on him vs the guys in the field at 197.

overall, my preseason projections have this PSU team with the third highest point total OF ALL TIME.

so, ya know, let's put things in perspective here.

 

[Ski]

Can you remember the last 3 timer going for his fourth not being picked to win in his final year?

The last time I remember that happening was when @johnstownsteel predicted an Iowa GOAT would not win his 4th title.

 

[Nitlion1986]

It's absolutely not impossible to see Parker win. My bad but the way you were talking about that HS match made me think you think Carter has little to no chance against Parker because of that match. Agree it wasn't close. Think Parker had 3 TDs and Carter got a 4 off of when Parker had another single and looked like he could score if anything. That match looks worse in folkstyle if anything.

There's a reason why Carter was a blue chipper but not some "can't miss" level recruit. He was getting brutalized early in the room. Something clicked for him early on here.

To be fair, they all get brutalized early in that room.

 

[Nitlion1986]

The last time I remember that happening was when @johnstownsteel predicted an Iowa GOAT would not win his 4th title.

Predicted? He preached that sermon from deep in his soul.

 

[nerfstate]

thanks for reading.

i think you guys are over reacting on the finals hth's. 1) listen to the rationales on the show 2) they are pretty insignificant in team point total

197 i'm taking a wait and see approach. Barr is my dude and i hope he crushes it. there just isn't a whole lot of data on him vs the guys in the field at 197.

overall, my preseason projections have this PSU team with the third highest point total OF ALL TIME.

so, ya know, let's put things in perspective here.

Not good enough.

 

[js8793]

thanks for reading.

i think you guys are over reacting on the finals hth's. 1) listen to the rationales on the show 2) they are pretty insignificant in team point total

197 i'm taking a wait and see approach. Barr is my dude and i hope he crushes it. there just isn't a whole lot of data on him vs the guys in the field at 197.

overall, my preseason projections have this PSU team with the third highest point total OF ALL TIME.

so, ya know, let's put things in perspective here.

Is that without bonus too?

 

[smalls103]

there's a little bonus baked in.

i use appx values for placing. ex. 22 for 1st, 18 for 2nd etc.

 

[doubleboots]

I agree with the long, extended shots. Like Carter, he has become very good at sucking those thighs in to finish as a double. Wrestling 197 could definitely pose a problem finishing that way. However, he will be quicker than most of his opponents and has developed a pretty mean ankle pick.
Your points are valid. It will remain to be seen how he handles mat wrestling with these bigger guys. He's been a hammer on top throughout his career. We'll have to see how he does getting out.
He is bigger than most people think. He was walking around at 204 before his decent for Worlds. That weight is surely back on. I'm more worried about how he handles getting back to 184 after this year. That may be a challenge.

 

[DEWrestlingFan]

In defense of smalls103 197 projection, I believe the last year of High School for Barr he wrestled 175. Last year strictly at 184. The jump to 197 could be tough for him, but it also may not be tough for him at all. I guess we will all find out in a few weeks. Either way, Barr is going to be really good!

 

[McScoreley]

In defense of smalls103 197 projection, I believe the last year of High School for Barr he wrestled 175. Last year strictly at 184. The jump to 197 could be tough for him, but it also may not be tough for him at all. I guess we will all find out in a few weeks. Either way, Barr is going to be really good!

He wrestled Haines at 160 the beginning of his junior year also. Seems like he's just a growing boy 😉

 

[dicemen99]

thanks for reading.

i think you guys are over reacting on the finals hth's. 1) listen to the rationales on the show 2) they are pretty insignificant in team point total

197 i'm taking a wait and see approach. Barr is my dude and i hope he crushes it. there just isn't a whole lot of data on him vs the guys in the field at 197.

overall, my preseason projections have this PSU team with the third highest point total OF ALL TIME.

so, ya know, let's put things in perspective here.

Love ya Willie, and don't have a problem with any of your predictions, they are rational - except one.

Carter Starocci is the most underrated wrestler in friggin history at this point. He hasn't lost since 2021 and he avenged that loss two weeks later winning a NC. Yeah, last year he was 4 weeks out from a severe knee injury and basically shut out the field that included 2 national champs.

He beat Nolf a couple of years ago and if the knee doesn't happen I'm betting he ends up in the best of 3 against Dake.

@smalls103 you've now joined the jokers I've been laughing at for months now wishing their way to picking a Keck win.

I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks, but I've got no doubt. It may not end up a major, but it will be a no doubt about it win.

 

[Agoodnap]

Love ya Willie, and don't have a problem with any of your predictions, they are rational - except one.

Carter Starocci is the most underrated wrestler in friggin history at this point. He hasn't lost since 2021 and he avenged that loss two weeks later winning a NC. Yeah, last year he was 4 weeks out from a severe knee injury and basically shut out the field that included 2 national champs.

He beat Nolf a couple of years ago and if the knee doesn't happen I'm betting he ends up in the best of 3 against Dake.

@smalls103 you've now joined the jokers I've been laughing at for months now wishing their way to picking a Keck win.

I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks, but I've got no doubt. It may not end up a major, but it will be a no doubt about it win.

Here's my no doubt. Regardless of the outcome at nwca, Carter will win another NC. A loss at nwca may actually help secure that NC!

 

[smalls103]

'wishing' lol.

why would i wish?

i don't understand why this is breaking everyone's brains. i think it's a coin flip match. i think Carter can 100% win.

but until i see ASC, i'm taking the reigning champ at 184 over the reigning champ at 174. it's not a grand conspiracy.

 

[pish69]

'wishing' lol.

why would i wish?

i don't understand why this is breaking everyone's brains. i think it's a coin flip match. i think Carter can 100% win.

but until i see ASC, i'm taking the reigning champ at 184 over the reigning champ at 174. it's not a grand conspiracy.

It’s a respect thing. Show some respect to the 4timer. How hard would it have been to show respect to a 4 timer. If Keck beats him at ASC, then at least you have a data point to make your prediction.

Keck is excellent, no doubt. But we’ve seen our former 184 pounder piss on him every time they wrestled. I put Carter in same regard as Brooks.

Only question mark in my mind is Carters knee. Haven’t seen any info about the injury, whether he had it repaired, etc (in most videos I’ve seen he still wearing brace) that being said, I would give edge to Carter as he’s the only 4 timer going for 5

 

[dicemen99]

'wishing' lol.

why would i wish?

i don't understand why this is breaking everyone's brains. i think it's a coin flip match. i think Carter can 100% win.

but until i see ASC, i'm taking the reigning champ at 184 over the reigning champ at 174. it's not a grand conspiracy.

I think you read too much into my post. There are a lot of jokers out there wishing a Keck win because they don't like Carter. A lot of fans, I'm not saying that's you.

But you are picking the same guy as them. You think it's 50/50, I don't see that at all. Like I said, I guess we'll see. But I'm betting on the guy who's career is unmatched by all except if very select few in the history of NCAA wrestling. That ain't Keck.

 

[Nitlion1986]

Click bait. How many watched to see the explanation?

 

[amattaro]

flokaren still got the ballgag on Willie, telling him not to rank freshmen.

 

[Idahopennstatefan]

The real winners is wrestling fans. Parker and Carter should be a good match. A match of quality wrestlers with slightly different styles. I am excited to see them get after it. I win just because the match happens.

 

[smalls103]

i'm sure all of you took Dake over Taylor, too.

only one group of people is saying that taking (in October) Keck over Starocci is wild.

figure it out.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

i'm sure all of you took Dake over Taylor, too.

only one group of people is saying that taking (in October) Keck over Starocci is wild.

figure it out.

In this case Carter is Dake - impenetrable defense and an insanely savvy competitor.

 

[AgSurfer]

To be fair, they all get brutalized early in that room.

Look at Nico. He graduated years ago and he’s still getting brutalized in the room!

 

[donboy6499]

'wishing' lol.

why would i wish?

i don't understand why this is breaking everyone's brains. i think it's a coin flip match. i think Carter can 100% win.

but until i see ASC, i'm taking the reigning champ at 184 over the reigning champ at 174. it's not a grand conspiracy.

Fair. Just funny to lean on the 1x champ vs 4x champ that hasn’t lost in almost 4 years in the coin flip.

In other words, what you’re saying is that Keck is so excellent that nothing Starocci could have done since he entered college would have me pick him over Keck. Which is fine, but you can’t blame people for kind of rolling their eyes at it.

 

[mjmirv]

PSU scores at least 180 points this year, maybe higher. We are only under 170 if we have a major injury at 125 or HWY. Predicting 140s is either trolling or uneducated. Willie ain’t dumb, so it’s likely a troll job.

 

[El-Jefe]

I'm good with whatever slights, real or perceived, at Carter.

It's not as though he takes everything personally.