Hey, this situation is concerning but over-reacting is also of concern. It is appropriate to be guarded in mass gatherings. But was is a mass gathering? A basketball game with 8-15k people? sure that is a cause for concern. A class of 30 students 18-22 year old who are not coughing and sneezing isn't a mass gathering. If that were so, nearly every workplace would have to shut down.
A prudent set of rules to follow is in order. Classes with over x people- an expert is required but something like 100 or 150 sounds reasonable, should be done via Zoom if separation cannot be achieved. Follow the CDC protocols. Don't show up if you show any signs of the flu. Get tested.
If you do the math, there will probably be 500k or 1MM people infected by June. That's assuming that the US data is sound. If it is not sound then the curve of how many people will flatten because the amount of cases we see now just jumped due to better detection meaning that many of the people recently found to be infected have been infected for a while flattening the curve. 500k to 1MM at 1% mortality yields 5000 to 10,000 deaths this year. The drop off after June is highly likely because this is a mutation of previous viruses and all previous viruses have fallen off in the warmer months. 1% mortality rate comes from South Korea where test has been at a higher ratio relative to the population. The US ratio is roughly 3.7% but when you remove the one nursing home in the state of Washington it falls to 1.3%. Once testing gets ramped up in the US, the 1.3% ratio will likely fall below 1%.
While 5k to 10k deaths sounds very disturbing, it is well within the standards of a normal year. A normal year is on the order of 12k-52k deaths due to the flu. The projection for the normal flu this year 34.5k and the 2017-2018 flu season had 62k deaths.
Again, reasonable precautions need to followed. Making some adjustments at a university are a good thing. Over-reacting is just wrong. No, I am not a doctor but I do understand the math behind the situation. Let's protect the most vulnerable in our society, the old and members of our families that have other illnesses where most of the deaths are occurring.
A prudent set of rules to follow is in order. Classes with over x people- an expert is required but something like 100 or 150 sounds reasonable, should be done via Zoom if separation cannot be achieved. Follow the CDC protocols. Don't show up if you show any signs of the flu. Get tested.
If you do the math, there will probably be 500k or 1MM people infected by June. That's assuming that the US data is sound. If it is not sound then the curve of how many people will flatten because the amount of cases we see now just jumped due to better detection meaning that many of the people recently found to be infected have been infected for a while flattening the curve. 500k to 1MM at 1% mortality yields 5000 to 10,000 deaths this year. The drop off after June is highly likely because this is a mutation of previous viruses and all previous viruses have fallen off in the warmer months. 1% mortality rate comes from South Korea where test has been at a higher ratio relative to the population. The US ratio is roughly 3.7% but when you remove the one nursing home in the state of Washington it falls to 1.3%. Once testing gets ramped up in the US, the 1.3% ratio will likely fall below 1%.
While 5k to 10k deaths sounds very disturbing, it is well within the standards of a normal year. A normal year is on the order of 12k-52k deaths due to the flu. The projection for the normal flu this year 34.5k and the 2017-2018 flu season had 62k deaths.
Again, reasonable precautions need to followed. Making some adjustments at a university are a good thing. Over-reacting is just wrong. No, I am not a doctor but I do understand the math behind the situation. Let's protect the most vulnerable in our society, the old and members of our families that have other illnesses where most of the deaths are occurring.
