Kennedy at 74 has been one of their few bright spots.
Not sure what you tell him why he isn't starting.
Either one is in for a beating.
PSU vs Iowa predictions?
- Thread starter Nitfan
- Start date
Not sure what you tell him why he isn't starting.
Either one is in for a beating.
2017-2018. Lost to Ohio St, Michigan, and Penn St. Almost lost a 4th to Illinois but Sam Stoll won by fall to win the dual 18-17. Some may remember Deuce Rachel “throwing himself to his back” in this one. Finished 3rd at Nationals. Spencer Lee won his first title over Suriano.
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Here is where I would lay the odds. These are based on Friday's lineups, where the match is being held, recent results, common opponents and career resume (less on that):
125 - Davis PICK'EM vs. Ayala
133 - Nagao (-5.5) vs. Schriever
141 - Bartlett PICKE'EM vs. Woods
149 - Kasak (-1.5) vs. Voinovich
157 - Haines (-2.5) vs. Franek
165 - Messenbrink (-4.5) vs. Caliendo
174 - Starocci (-14.5) vs. Kennedy
184 - Truax (-8.5) vs. Riggins
197 - Brooks (-12.5) vs. Glazier
285 - Kerk (-14.5) vs. Hill
My picks as of now
125 - Ayala dec. Davis (Braeden wins at BIG's and places higher in KC)
133 - Nagao dec Schriever (I'd take Schriever and the 5.5 on my odds)
141 - Woods dec Bartlett (Woods wins at BIG's, Bartlett places higher in KC)
149 - Kasak dec Voinovich (I'd lay the 1.5 points in my odds)
157 - Haines dec Franek (I'd lay the 2.5 points in my odds)
165 - Messenbrink dec Caliendo (I'd lay the 4.5 points in my odds)
174 - Starocci major Kennedy (Obviously taking Kennedy +14.5 in my odds)
184 - Truax major Riggins (I'd lay the 8.5 points in my odds)
197 - Brooks major Glazier (I'd take Glazier +12.5 in my odds)
285 - Kerkvliet tech Hill (I'd lay the 14.5 in my odds)
29-6 PSU
125 - Davis PICK'EM vs. Ayala
133 - Nagao (-5.5) vs. Schriever
141 - Bartlett PICKE'EM vs. Woods
149 - Kasak (-1.5) vs. Voinovich
157 - Haines (-2.5) vs. Franek
165 - Messenbrink (-4.5) vs. Caliendo
174 - Starocci (-14.5) vs. Kennedy
184 - Truax (-8.5) vs. Riggins
197 - Brooks (-12.5) vs. Glazier
285 - Kerk (-14.5) vs. Hill
My picks as of now
125 - Ayala dec. Davis (Braeden wins at BIG's and places higher in KC)
133 - Nagao dec Schriever (I'd take Schriever and the 5.5 on my odds)
141 - Woods dec Bartlett (Woods wins at BIG's, Bartlett places higher in KC)
149 - Kasak dec Voinovich (I'd lay the 1.5 points in my odds)
157 - Haines dec Franek (I'd lay the 2.5 points in my odds)
165 - Messenbrink dec Caliendo (I'd lay the 4.5 points in my odds)
174 - Starocci major Kennedy (Obviously taking Kennedy +14.5 in my odds)
184 - Truax major Riggins (I'd lay the 8.5 points in my odds)
197 - Brooks major Glazier (I'd take Glazier +12.5 in my odds)
285 - Kerkvliet tech Hill (I'd lay the 14.5 in my odds)
29-6 PSU
I cringe plenty (ha) at talk of shutouts of teams as good as Hawks and Bucks, and of 170 points in KC. But it’s a dynasty’s message board, so it won’t stop, not even after Braedon gets thrown, Nagao gets bullied (but fights back like a badger), Carter tires, and Bernie gets pinned. That’s fine, too, because all our guys will learn and bounce back (duals are class work, NCAAs are final exam).
That said, dual results are as intransitive as single match results. I’m with you. Toughest dual of the year. More than happy with 7 wins and will absolutely bust if Braedon sedates Carver with one of them.
The talk of shutout stems from the fact that (based on the odds above) PSU is at least 50-50 in every match. However, if you call 125, 141, 149, and 157 all "50-50" since they are all close to that, the odds that PSU sweeps all four and actually gets a shutout is the same as the odds of flipping a coin to heads 4 times in a row, which is 6%. If you add in that 133, 165, and 184 are maybe 80% each for PSU and 174, 197, and HWT are like 99%, the odds of a full sweep are only about 2.5% (or 1-in-40) even though every match is 50-50 or better. Don't get your hopes up for that.
the best part of tOSU post match press conference was when Cael referred to the dual as “practice”. I do think it’s how PSU views it. Learning experience to get better and prepare for the big show in March. So I kinda expect PSU wrestlers to experiment with some things, put themselves in learning situations - even if it puts a dual matchup in jeopardy. As a result, tOSH and Iowa matches might appear closer than then really are and PSU might lose some winnable matches. I think we win 7 of 10 too, but tough to predict where we might stumble into a loss here and there as part of the learning exercise.
Dude, it's Monday,what's with all the math?!?
Settle down, Francis. I'll do the math here.
I think the dual at Michigan was exactly what Brands needed to have them 110% focused and ready this Friday. I think it’s going to be a tough one and closer than anyone (including me) had thought.
Tom certainly didn’t look particularly animated watching their performance, almost as if he knew there was a risk of it given the way the kids were worked leading up to it.
And my wife can pop the latch to lift the hood on her car to see why it won't start...
I, too, am more reserved in my predictions for this match. Hoping I’m wrong, but I think Iowa will perform much better than they did against Michigan.
I agree. We, too often, think a past close win means future wins. I think the last meet shows how easy it is to lose at this level. And.. a lot goes into it and could impact it - a good/bad call, health, that weeks weight cut, bumps and bruises. Nothing is a given. Hope we win 10 but will settle for 7
To be honest, both Iowa and Penn State wrestled on Friday like they were already looking forward to this weekend and treated those matches as if all they needed to do was show up, and tOSU and Michigan didn't agree.
Against the spread:
125 - Davis PICK'EM vs. Ayala - Ayala by a stall call
133 - Nagao (-5.5) vs. Schriever - Nagao by 7
141 - Bartlett PICKE'EM vs. Woods - Bartlett in SV
149 - Kasak (-1.5) vs. Voinovich - Voinovich loses by 1 when not awarded a late TD and CHA loses their collective mind
157 - Haines (-2.5) vs. Franek - Franek loses by 2
165 - Messenbrink (-4.5) vs. Caliendo - Mesenbrink wins by 8
174 - Starocci (-14.5) vs. Kennedy - Kennedy loses by 5
184 - Truax (-8.5) vs. Riggins - Truax wins by 12
CHA begins to empty
197 - Brooks (-12.5) vs. Glazier - Brooks wins by 15
WE ARE cheers begin to echo in CHA
285 - Kerk (-14.5) vs. Hill - Hill loses by 13
125 - Davis PICK'EM vs. Ayala - Ayala by a stall call
133 - Nagao (-5.5) vs. Schriever - Nagao by 7
141 - Bartlett PICKE'EM vs. Woods - Bartlett in SV
149 - Kasak (-1.5) vs. Voinovich - Voinovich loses by 1 when not awarded a late TD and CHA loses their collective mind
157 - Haines (-2.5) vs. Franek - Franek loses by 2
165 - Messenbrink (-4.5) vs. Caliendo - Mesenbrink wins by 8
174 - Starocci (-14.5) vs. Kennedy - Kennedy loses by 5
184 - Truax (-8.5) vs. Riggins - Truax wins by 12
CHA begins to empty
197 - Brooks (-12.5) vs. Glazier - Brooks wins by 15
WE ARE cheers begin to echo in CHA
285 - Kerk (-14.5) vs. Hill - Hill loses by 13
And the deceptive closeness will fool most of them into predicting 130+ points next year as we fall back into the pack because, of course, our pipeline is dry and we have no one returning
Yes, the pipeline is dry and there are no future champs coming in. Playing field totally level. LOL.
Pushing, hand fighting and stalling is Iowa's preferred style. I think they send their wrestlers to Japan in the summer to study Sumo.
Could be a tight one since it'll start at 125 and 4/5 are tossups (slight favorite Iowa at 125/141 especially at Carver maybe) and Nagao hasn't remotely looked good. I also think Brands will pull at stops and Arnold likely will be the 184 again. Not sure what they do with Kueter, definitely weigh him in though.
I hope CHA doesn't clear out too much before Brooks goes. How else is going to get his customary standing ovation that all 3x champs are entitled to from all fan bases?
I'm sure Starocci's greeting will be warm and welcoming before he clears the room out. LOL.
I think 149 / 157 are 60/ 40 penn.st and 125 is 55-45 iowa and 141 is tricky on which real woods shows up so very slight edge to woods.
I wasn't going to split hairs on this. They are close enough to 50-50 for the purpose of illustrative math.
I think Iowa will come rolling in fired up but PSU will be battle-tested and ready for them. We won't be training through this match, LOL.
Ayala 0-3 (Carver gives this to the wrestler with the most experience)
Nagao 3-3 (Iowa's options aren't that inspiring)
Woods 3-6 (Real will be back to form but it will be very very close)
Kasak 6-6 (Another good test for Tyler and I think he's up to this one)
Haines 9-6 (Haines wills a win once again against a very defensive wrestler)
Psycho 12-6 (I think Mitch wins by 5 or 6. Caliendo is good)
Starocci 16-6 (Cstar with a bonus victory)
Truax 20-6 (I can't see Riggins keeping this close ... Arnold might)
Brooks 23-6 (I don't see Glazier engaging so he keeps it to 7 points)
Kerk 27-6 (Kerk will major either HWT easily)
Ayala 0-3 (Carver gives this to the wrestler with the most experience)
Nagao 3-3 (Iowa's options aren't that inspiring)
Woods 3-6 (Real will be back to form but it will be very very close)
Kasak 6-6 (Another good test for Tyler and I think he's up to this one)
Haines 9-6 (Haines wills a win once again against a very defensive wrestler)
Psycho 12-6 (I think Mitch wins by 5 or 6. Caliendo is good)
Starocci 16-6 (Cstar with a bonus victory)
Truax 20-6 (I can't see Riggins keeping this close ... Arnold might)
Brooks 23-6 (I don't see Glazier engaging so he keeps it to 7 points)
Kerk 27-6 (Kerk will major either HWT easily)
Speaking of Brands, I haven’t found any post-match interviews he’s done following the Michigan beat down. Anyone else find something?
The silence seems weird. He’s usually willing to speak to the press even after disappointments.
LOL I doubt there will be much engaging by the entire iowa team!
The Carver crowd will show their deep admiration and appreciation of Carters amazing career by not throwing any water bottles at him.
I'll split hairs. My calculations show the odds are 50.0000000 .... 000001 to 49.9999999 .... 99999
125: Ayala. Wrestling in Carver is tough for anyone, but even more difficult for freshman. I think Davis can win this match, and I think he will beat Ayala this year. PSU notoriously closes the gap on better wrestlers the more times they meet. Since this is the first time and it is in Carver, I am saying Ayala by dec. 0-3 Iowa.
133: Nagao. I think we see Schriever here. I think Nagao is able to finish his takedowns and put on a good ride. Nagao by dec 3-3.
141: BB. I have a hard time thinking the same Woods will show up that showed up against Michigan. However, I also don't think this years Woods is the same as last. BB's takedown defense and quickness will be the difference. BB by dec 6-3 PSU.
149: Kasak. I think Rathjen goes here. Again, I know freshman wrestling in Carver is super difficult, however, I think Rathjen's offense will play right into Kasak's. I think Kasak looked the best last weekend that he has all year. So if he is really starting to hit his stride I'm picking him. 9-3 PSU.
157: Haines. Until he gets beat, how do you pick against him. The kid is a winner. 12-3 PSU.
165: Psycho. If MM is the competitor he has shown to be, I can not wait to watch him wrestle this week after being ridden last week. I think he is coming out to make a statement this week to solidify he is top 3. I want to say he pushes for the major, but I'll be conservative. 15-3 PSU.
174: CStar. There was a lot of talk about Arnold, but I don't see it happening, and even if it does, it doesn't change my prediction. Welsh was able to keep it to a dec, and I think Arnold would do the same. However, I think Kennedy gets majored due to his style. 19-3 PSU
184: Truax. Was looking good last week until he got thrown. Another guy that very well could be on a mission to make a statement. If he gets his offense going, I think he could push for a major. I don't think he's been wrestling up to his ability as of lately, so for that reason, I think it is a decision. 22-3 PSU
197: Brooks. Brooks is in a tier of his own this year. He continues to push the pace, and impose his will on opponents. Glazier was Iowa's best wrestler last weekend, but didn't exactly wrestle an AA candidate. Brooks by maj. 26-3 PSU.
285: Kerk. The way Kerk wrestled Feldman last weekend should be a warning to the other heavyweights. Do they send Keuter out with the match locked up? I don't think theres any way that happens. I think Kerk puts 5 more up. 31-3 PSU.
133: Nagao. I think we see Schriever here. I think Nagao is able to finish his takedowns and put on a good ride. Nagao by dec 3-3.
141: BB. I have a hard time thinking the same Woods will show up that showed up against Michigan. However, I also don't think this years Woods is the same as last. BB's takedown defense and quickness will be the difference. BB by dec 6-3 PSU.
149: Kasak. I think Rathjen goes here. Again, I know freshman wrestling in Carver is super difficult, however, I think Rathjen's offense will play right into Kasak's. I think Kasak looked the best last weekend that he has all year. So if he is really starting to hit his stride I'm picking him. 9-3 PSU.
157: Haines. Until he gets beat, how do you pick against him. The kid is a winner. 12-3 PSU.
165: Psycho. If MM is the competitor he has shown to be, I can not wait to watch him wrestle this week after being ridden last week. I think he is coming out to make a statement this week to solidify he is top 3. I want to say he pushes for the major, but I'll be conservative. 15-3 PSU.
174: CStar. There was a lot of talk about Arnold, but I don't see it happening, and even if it does, it doesn't change my prediction. Welsh was able to keep it to a dec, and I think Arnold would do the same. However, I think Kennedy gets majored due to his style. 19-3 PSU
184: Truax. Was looking good last week until he got thrown. Another guy that very well could be on a mission to make a statement. If he gets his offense going, I think he could push for a major. I don't think he's been wrestling up to his ability as of lately, so for that reason, I think it is a decision. 22-3 PSU
197: Brooks. Brooks is in a tier of his own this year. He continues to push the pace, and impose his will on opponents. Glazier was Iowa's best wrestler last weekend, but didn't exactly wrestle an AA candidate. Brooks by maj. 26-3 PSU.
285: Kerk. The way Kerk wrestled Feldman last weekend should be a warning to the other heavyweights. Do they send Keuter out with the match locked up? I don't think theres any way that happens. I think Kerk puts 5 more up. 31-3 PSU.
125: Ayala dec Davis 0-3 Iowa (learning experience for Davis)
131 Nagao dec Schriever 3-3
141 Woods dec BB 3-6 (BB still seems hesitant to pull the trigger)
149 Kasak dec VV 6-6 (we never look back from here)
157 Haines dec Franek 9-6
165 MM dec Cal 12-6
174 CS MD Kennedy 16-6(Arnold is spotted quivering in a corner)
184 T-ax dec Riggins 19-6
197 AB MD Glazier 23-6
HWY Kerk TF Hill 28-6 Good guys prevail (If Keuter toes the line Kerk gets 4
instead of 5)
131 Nagao dec Schriever 3-3
141 Woods dec BB 3-6 (BB still seems hesitant to pull the trigger)
149 Kasak dec VV 6-6 (we never look back from here)
157 Haines dec Franek 9-6
165 MM dec Cal 12-6
174 CS MD Kennedy 16-6(Arnold is spotted quivering in a corner)
184 T-ax dec Riggins 19-6
197 AB MD Glazier 23-6
HWY Kerk TF Hill 28-6 Good guys prevail (If Keuter toes the line Kerk gets 4
instead of 5)
