Recruiting Puzzle

[dicemen99]

PapaBearSlim is probably pretty good with his inside knowledge given who he is. From reading a bunch of posts of his on TheMat and HR AND with the Yates to UNI commitment, it looks like:

1) Suriano goes to Iowa
2) We are taking Red over Pletcher - Pletcher then goes to Pitt
3) Hall probably ends up in Minny

It looks like we will be going all in for Lee at 125 in 17/18 and probably be shorthanded there in 16/17 - which I don't think is a very big deal.

 

[jrod9]

Would this post not indicate by him that Suriano is going to PSU?

TBar1977, on 18 Jul 2015 - 10:52 AM, said:

Suriano to Penn State.

Hall to Minnesota.

Yates to Iowa.

Pletcher to Pitt.

3 of 4. Not bad.

 

[dicemen99]

Would this post not indicate by him that Suriano is going to PSU?

TBar1977, on 18 Jul 2015 - 10:52 AM, said:

Suriano to Penn State.

Hall to Minnesota.

Yates to Iowa.

Pletcher to Pitt.

3 of 4. Not bad.

Yes, that one had me a little baffled too, but I think that is an an outlier of most of his posts. There is also another with Red to PSU and Suriano to PSU, and he is 3 or 4 out of 5. And another one yet - don't feel like going back on all of them. Also one on HR with Iowa getting at least 1 out of Suriano, Hall, Lee. Which makes sense as I think Lee is between Iowa/PSU, Hall not going to Iowa. Suriano is probably Iowa bound.

 

[jrod9]

Went back and read them all. Suriano may in fact go to Iowa, but he contradicted himself quite a bit with all those posts on themat.

 

[Osprey Lion]

PapaBearSlim is probably pretty good with his inside knowledge given who he is. From reading a bunch of posts of his on TheMat and HR AND with the Yates to UNI commitment, it looks like:

1) Suriano goes to Iowa
2) We are taking Red over Pletcher - Pletcher then goes to Pitt
3) Hall probably ends up in Minny

It looks like we will be going all in for Lee at 125 in 17/18 and probably be shorthanded there in 16/17 - which I don't think is a very big deal.

I can't believe Coach Sandersen would go into the 2017 season with such a huge hole. I believe he has some plan for 125.

 

[dicemen99]

I can't believe Coach Sandersen would go into the 2017 season with such a huge hole. I believe he has some plan for 125.

Why???? I think we qualified all 10 only once during the 4 year run. 0 is 0 and 1.5 isn't much different. Unless some potential frosh AA appears or Micic decides to transfer here (doubtful), I'm guessing we won't be scoring much here in 16/17.

 

[RoarLions1]

Why???? I think we qualified all 10 only once during the 4 year run. 0 is 0 and 1.5 isn't much different. Unless some potential frosh AA appears or Micic decides to transfer here (doubtful), I'm guessing we won't be scoring much here in 16/17.

This coaching staff isn't geared to think this way. I get your logic, dice, but Cael & Co. are striving to have an All-American at every weight class, every year. Unrealistic? Surely it is, but again, it's a target to shoot for. And forget about the past, this staff is always looking ahead. I just don't see them quitting on a weight class, even for 1 year.

 

[dicemen99]

This coaching staff isn't geared to think this way. I get your logic, dice, but Cael & Co. are striving to have an All-American at every weight class, every year. Unrealistic? Surely it is, but again, it's a target to shoot for. And forget about the past, this staff is always looking ahead. I just don't see them quitting on a weight class, even for 1 year.

I understand what you are saying in principal, but in reality this is not the case. We only need to look at this past year for an example of this.

My point is that in two years the coaching staff will be fine and confident in 125 being successful at NCAAs if we don't bring anyone else in for 2016/17. Just like they were at 141 this year.

My point is more directed to people who think the sky is falling if we don't land Suriano or that we absolutely must turn to some Plan B option if we don't, than to what you just addressed. Obviously the bluntness of my reply that 0 is 0 wouldn't jive with the staff's philosophy. Just my take on the reality of it - which I would hope they would not agree with.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

I find it hard to believe that PapaBear or anyone else knows where every top recruit is going. How would it even be possible, does he tap their phones? No one person, connected or not, has that much information on so many guys spread throughout the country. Furthermore, some of these recruits aren't even sure where they are going yet.

 

[jrod9]

Assuming Suriano to Iowa, his first response to 3 out of 4 was flat out wrong as I noted above if you take it at face value, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt. Let's say he overlooked and thought he was seeing N Iowa instead of Iowa for Yates, so Suriano to Penn State was the incorrect one. Or a real brain fart and thought he was seeing Iowa instead of PSU for Suriano making Yates incorrect. Either way that would mean Hall and Pletcher are correct.

In the next post he also says 3 of 4. Suriano (regardless of PSU or Iowa) and Yates are correct there, which means he doesn't know about one of Hall or Pletcher, clearly contradicting the first post.

I won't even try to find out what the third post means with the first two being wrong. He may have some inside info on some recruits, but thinking he knows all is madness. He would be on Flo's payroll if that was the case.

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

Assuming Suriano to Iowa, his first response to 3 out of 4 was flat out wrong as I noted above if you take it at face value, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt. Let's say he overlooked and thought he was seeing N Iowa instead of Iowa for Yates, so Suriano to Penn State was the incorrect one. Or a real brain fart and thought he was seeing Iowa instead of PSU for Suriano making Yates incorrect. Either way that would mean Hall and Pletcher are correct.

In the next post he also says 3 of 4. Suriano (regardless of PSU or Iowa) and Yates are correct there, which means he doesn't know about one of Hall or Pletcher, clearly contradicting the first post.

I won't even try to find out what the third post means with the first two being wrong. He may have some inside info on some recruits, but thinking he knows all is madness. He would be on Flo's payroll if that was the case.

I don't know all (not even close). Yates will be in "Iowa"

 

[jrod9]

I don't know all (not even close). Yates will be in "Iowa"

Not sure what you are saying here. Is Yates will be in "Iowa" mean that was a correct prediction based on physical location and not college? If so, I'm pretty sure you knew that was not what the poster meant. Either way, as I noted above, it makes your second 3 of 4 post incorrect anyways based on the first.

If Iowa is getting Suriano, kudos to them, but your posts don't add up.

 

[edquinn06]

I don't know all (not even close). Yates will be in "Iowa"

They still haven't picked up on that have they?

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Why would anyone pick up on that? People were naming universities, not states. This is all about backtracking, not geography.

Seriously guys, after the last few recruiting classes, I know Iowa is desperate this year and if they don't get a huge class they are in serious trouble, but lets not play the semantics game.

 

[Maddog]

PapaBearSlim is probably pretty good with his inside knowledge given who he is. From reading a bunch of posts of his on TheMat and HR AND with the Yates to UNI commitment, it looks like:

1) Suriano goes to Iowa
2) We are taking Red over Pletcher - Pletcher then goes to Pitt
3) Hall probably ends up in Minny

It looks like we will be going all in for Lee at 125 in 17/18 and probably be shorthanded there in 16/17 - which I don't think is a very big deal.

If Suriano does indeed go to Iowa, why do we have to choose between Red and Pletcher? Why not take both? We need three lightweights in the next two classes to replace Nico, JC, and JG. Have to think Cael wants to get at least two this year, then go all out for Lee (as you stated), or maybe Fix if Lee isn't coming. Even if neither Red or Pletcher can go 125 next year, you can let one handle 133 and the other RS before taking over 141 the following year. Or are you saying that PSU would take Red, pass on Pletcher, and then go for another lightweight this year like Phillipi?

 

[jrod9]

I agree. Would take Red and Pletcher in a heartbeat.

 

[KidNittany]

Speaking of the Park, I don't think we're going after him as hard as some others but I think Gabe Townsell has the potential to be very successful on the next level.

Townsell v. Glynn

Townsell v. Volk

Wouldn't mind seeing him in B/W but IDK if it's in the cards

 

[dicemen99]

If Suriano does indeed go to Iowa, why do we have to choose between Red and Pletcher? Why not take both? We need three lightweights in the next two classes to replace Nico, JC, and JG. Have to think Cael wants to get at least two this year, then go all out for Lee (as you stated), or maybe Fix if Lee isn't coming. Even if neither Red or Pletcher can go 125 next year, you can let one handle 133 and the other RS before taking over 141 the following year. Or are you saying that PSU would take Red, pass on Pletcher, and then go for another lightweight this year like Phillipi?

I think PSU would take Pletcher in a heartbeat. Again, this is only conjecture, but all signs point to it being a money issue. I'm assuming Pletcher wants more than PSU is willing/able to offer and Pitt/VaTech is offering it.

 

[Maddog]

I think PSU would take Pletcher in a heartbeat. Again, this is only conjecture, but all signs point to it being a money issue. I'm assuming Pletcher wants more than PSU is willing/able to offer and Pitt/VaTech is offering it.

OK, I understand. But if PSU gets Red and misses on Suriano and Pletcher, do you think they go for a second lightweight for this recruiting year? And, if so, who do you think they targer?

 

[dicemen99]

OK, I understand. But if PSU gets Red and misses on Suriano and Pletcher, do you think they go for a second lightweight for this recruiting year? And, if so, who do you think they targer?

I definitely think there will be another lightweight added this year. Whether it is a guy that gets a lot of money - probably not if Suriano goes elsewhere. Guys in the top 100 not already committed that could wrestle 125:

Danny Vega, AZ - he's a 113, probably a few years away from an impact
Taylor Lamont, UT - mission
Colby Smith, MO
Tyler Warner, OH
Brock Rathburn, IA
Montorie Bridges, OK
Durbin Lloren, CA
David Campbell, CA
Tyshawn White, PA - I would think there would have been more smoke about this if there was anything there
Gabe Townsell, IL

Hopefully one of the above guys is interested in PSU and is a great student, or has a great financial aid situation, ROTC scholarship or just wants the opportunity to wrestle in the PSU room and is willing to earn their way. I'm not sure how much of a ride PSU would be willing to offer any of the above right off the bat.

 

[jrod9]

If for some reason we do get Suriano, does that mean no Red? Was really hoping for some 2 out 3 combo, but it sounds like we only get 1 of the 3.

 

[dicemen99]

If for some reason we do get Suriano, does that mean no Red? Was really hoping for some 2 out 3 combo, but it sounds like we only get 1 of the 3.

That's a really good question.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

I definitely think there will be another lightweight added this year. Whether it is a guy that gets a lot of money - probably not if Suriano goes elsewhere. Guys in the top 100 not already committed that could wrestle 125:

Danny Vega, AZ - he's a 113, probably a few years away from an impact
Taylor Lamont, UT - mission
Colby Smith, MO
Tyler Warner, OH
Brock Rathburn, IA
Montorie Bridges, OK
Durbin Lloren, CA
David Campbell, CA
Tyshawn White, PA - I would think there would have been more smoke about this if there was anything there
Gabe Townsell, IL

Hopefully one of the above guys is interested in PSU and is a great student, or has a great financial aid situation, ROTC scholarship or just wants the opportunity to wrestle in the PSU room and is willing to earn their way. I'm not sure how much of a ride PSU would be willing to offer any of the above right off the bat.

Tyler Warner has Penn State listed as a school of interest in his Flo profile along with 3 other teams. If they don't get Suriano or Micic, he may be the next in line on the 125 recruiting depth chart.

 

[El-Jefe]

If for some reason we do get Suriano, does that mean no Red? Was really hoping for some 2 out 3 combo, but it sounds like we only get 1 of the 3.

That's a financial question -- how many elite non-residents can we fit under the 9.9 cap?

Wrestling-wise, Suriano probably increases the likelihood of Red. Red seems better suited to move up to 141 than Pletcher -- translated: make room for Suriano to make room for Lee.

 

[tjb249]

If for some reason we do get Suriano, does that mean no Red? Was really hoping for some 2 out 3 combo, but it sounds like we only get 1 of the 3.

I see PSU trying to take 2 out of the 3 from Suriano, Red and Pletcher. Suriano is a 125lber with the potential to go 133lbs once Spencer gets here. Red is a 133lber with the potential to go 141lbs. Both of theses guys are lean. Luke is the stockiest of them all (built like gorilla hulk), and for that reason I see him staying at 133lbs his entire college career. All three of these guys can fit into the line-up at the same time. Due to money reasons as previously stated, I think we get 2 out of the 3. If we falter and only get 1, then I see us going all in for Dalton and Spencer the following year.

 

[tjb249]

That's a financial question -- how many elite non-residents can we fit under the 9.9 cap?

Wrestling-wise, Suriano probably increases the likelihood of Red. Red seems better suited to move up to 141 than Pletcher -- translated: make room for Suriano to make room for Lee.

El-Jefe, great minds think alike!

 

[jrod9]

Got to figure there is some money tied up in the three starting seniors Mega, Conaway, and McIntosh right? There is one elite out of state recruit dropping off so adding one should be a wash. Not enough money between Mega and Conaway to add the other?

 

[dicemen99]

I agree - don't think that getting Suriano would hurt Red at all. I feel like Red and Pletcher are more competing for a spot, although you could see that working out in a couple of years if Red moves up to 41. Suriano is probably 125 and then 133. The other two 133 and then 141. Lee 125 for the foreseeable future.

 

[Maddog]

Got to figure there is some money tied up in the three starting seniors Mega, Conaway, and McIntosh right? There is one elite out of state recruit dropping off so adding one should be a wash. Not enough money between Mega and Conaway to add the other?

They also have to have money for Manville, and may be trying to save money for Lee next year, when only Gulibon comes off the books.

 

[jrod9]

Poster over at Scout says Micic to PSU. Claims was in Chicago and spoke to someone very close to the Northwestern program. Only his 3rd post ever. Take it fwiw.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Poster over at Scout says Micic to PSU. Claims was in Chicago and spoke to someone very close to the Northwestern program. Only his 3rd post ever. Take it fwiw.

Here's my face after reading that Scout post - hope I'm wrong

 

[NoVa Lion]

Got to figure there is some money tied up in the three starting seniors Mega, Conaway, and McIntosh right? There is one elite out of state recruit dropping off so adding one should be a wash. Not enough money between Mega and Conaway to add the other?

From PSU's perspective a ship is a ship. In state or out of state count the same towards the 9.9. It makes a difference to the recruit if it isn't a full ship since 50% of out of state tuition is a lot more than 50% of in state tuition.

 

[tjb249]

They also have to have money for Manville, and may be trying to save money for Lee next year, when only Gulibon comes off the books.

Maddog great point. If you look at PSU's roster and try to figure out the scholarship situations (9.9 Total), you actually have to look at who came off the roster this season and who is coming in. Both Altons, Lawson and Brown came off the books this year. I am going to assume that is 3.5 scholarships with Lawson getting a 1/2 scholarship. Since we only brought in 4 recruits, I am going to assume that Joseph (1.0), Stout (0.5), Law (0.5) and Giannangeli (0) only account for 2.0 scholarships. This leaves 1.5 still availabe.

We can assume that McIntosh and Megaludis are most likely full rides (2.0 total). Assume Conaway is a 0.5 scholarship. That leaves you with 1.5 leftover from the previous year and 2.5 scholarships after next season, which totals up to 4 scholarships for the 2016 recruiting class. With Manville already verballed and taking 1.0 of the 4.0, you are left with 3.0. This makes me believe that the scholarship money is there for 2 of the 3 lightweights and Mark Hall. Gulibon coming off the books in the 2017 Class will be used to get Spencer Lee.

2016 should be the bigger class and has more depth from a recruiting perspective. Hope this helped some people.

 

[Maddog]

Maddog great point. If you look at PSU's roster and try to figure out the scholarship situations (9.9 Total), you actually have to look at who came off the roster this season and who is coming in. Both Altons, Lawson and Brown came off the books this year. I am going to assume that is 3.5 scholarships with Lawson getting a 1/2 scholarship. Since we only brought in 4 recruits, I am going to assume that Joseph (1.0), Stout (0.5), Law (0.5) and Giannangeli (0) only account for 2.0 scholarships. This leaves 1.5 still availabe.

We can assume that McIntosh and Megaludis are most likely full rides (2.0 total). Assume Conaway is a 0.5 scholarship. That leaves you with 1.5 leftover from the previous year and 2.5 scholarships after next season, which totals up to 4 scholarships for the 2016 recruiting class. With Manville already verballed and taking 1.0 of the 4.0, you are left with 3.0. This makes me believe that the scholarship money is there for 2 of the 3 lightweights and Mark Hall. Gulibon coming off the books in the 2017 Class will be used to get Spencer Lee.

2016 should be the bigger class and has more depth from a recruiting perspective. Hope this helped some people.

I like your reasoning, but I think Brown was on a ROTC scholarship and was getting little, if any, money from wrestling.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Unlikely Manville is getting a full ride. When he dropped out of Blair and started to focus on Greco, I suspect there was some renegotiation.

Personally, I'm still not sure how he fits into the team's future plans.

 

[Sullivan]

I like your reasoning, but I think Brown was on a ROTC scholarship and was getting little, if any, money from wrestling.

Agreed. Matt also had a 3.97 GPA.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Maddog great point. If you look at PSU's roster and try to figure out the scholarship situations (9.9 Total), you actually have to look at who came off the roster this season and who is coming in. Both Altons, Lawson and Brown came off the books this year. I am going to assume that is 3.5 scholarships with Lawson getting a 1/2 scholarship. Since we only brought in 4 recruits, I am going to assume that Joseph (1.0), Stout (0.5), Law (0.5) and Giannangeli (0) only account for 2.0 scholarships. This leaves 1.5 still availabe.

We can assume that McIntosh and Megaludis are most likely full rides (2.0 total). Assume Conaway is a 0.5 scholarship. That leaves you with 1.5 leftover from the previous year and 2.5 scholarships after next season, which totals up to 4 scholarships for the 2016 recruiting class. With Manville already verballed and taking 1.0 of the 4.0, you are left with 3.0. This makes me believe that the scholarship money is there for 2 of the 3 lightweights and Mark Hall. Gulibon coming off the books in the 2017 Class will be used to get Spencer Lee.

2016 should be the bigger class and has more depth from a recruiting perspective. Hope this helped some people.

You made a lot of assumptions and most there is no way to know what the actual ship amount is. However, Brown was Army ROTC and wasn't getting any athletic ship money. I'm guessing Conaway was a walkon (same class as Nico and originally signed with Liberty) but is getting whatever ship money was left over for 2015-16 after being an AA last season. How much that is I have no idea. You are also assuming a lot that Nico, Smack, both Altons, etc. all got full rides. The math doesn't add up when you include Zain, Nolf, Nickals, Rasheed, etal. If they were all on full rides last season plus Lawson, Conaway & Hammond on 0.5 that is 9.5 already (not including Brown for any). I think a LOT more guys are on partial rides than you think. JMHO.

 

[SRATH]

One probably needs a PHD to figure out the finances. So many different ways to slice the 9.9 pie then tack on ROTC / academic. You probably have 5-7 full rides at any time, then divide the rest up to the rest of the line-up. Casser steps in for Smack as an out of state kid......one thinks someone like that is getting some help.

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

All this means to me is I kind of hope we're not giving Manville a full ship, because there are other guys I'd rather have and who probably deserve it a bit more right now

 

[lauren68]

I once heard Nico was not on a wrestling scholly because his family didn't want it. He also is a great econ student and may have an academic scholly.