Recruiting Rankings vs On-Field Performance and PSU Implications

[ryoder1]

Penn State seems to be headed for a recruiting class around #10, could be #12 could be #15 but in that range. If you look back over the Franklin era and say the last 5 years we have been maybe as high as #7 and as low as maybe #20, not quite sure.

My question for debate is this:

With PSU finishing in this range in the recruiting rankings can we ever get over the top to win a NC? Especially with NIL now being a major factor in recruiting. There are always seemingly going to be the elite prograns like OSU, Bama, UGA, now USC and a few others that will "out recruit" us year in and year out.

I think we can but it starts at QB. If we don't have a QB at the level of those elite programs then it will be difficult. It can be done but then if our QB is a Stetson Bennett type then we better have an NFL ready defense with highly ranked elite defensive line play and most likely a big time WR. However, if we had all that wouldn't we push a top 5 class? I don't know.

Another way to look at it is when is the last time a national champion came from a team that finished outside the top 5 in the recruiting rankings for the 4 years prior to winning it all?

The data I found to try to answer this question is a bit dated, dated Feb 2021, and shows the avg recruiting rankings over the last 5 years. The top 5 are:

UGA 2
Bama 2.4
OSU 5
LSU 7
Clemson 8

Who won the national championships between the '17-'20 seasons?

UGA in '17
Clemson in '18
LSU in '19
Bama in '20

UGA has continued to finish in the top 5 of recruiting the last 2-3 years and what do you know, they won the NC in the '21 and '22 seasons.

 

[Online Persona]

We are a long shot until we can average a top 5 to 10 class at the lowest. I do think we are getting there. One year of breaking through on the field could change the recruiting landscape. We are certainly over-performing slightly our recruiting rankings, not quite the same as Clemson when they first won a title and they had a down ACC to walk all over. But we are in the right ballpark.

Funny thing, you list the top 5 in recruiting average and then the 4 who have won recent titles and one is missing. That would be Ohio St and their choking in the playoffs likely hurts all of the Big 10 in terms of getting a bid if they are on the fence.

 

[ram2020]

Not knocking your post, but this is hardly revelatory. 5 years ago many on this board tried to argue it's primarily coaching, character, determination, etc. Nobody even tries to argue that sh*t anymore. Sure, programs can punch above their recruiting rankings in a game or maybe even a season, but they will get exposed eventually playing a team full of 5* like Georgia. The team with better recruits wins the majority of the time and those trend lines just continue to increase in college football. As it relates to Penn States case, I think it has materialized at a near perfect relation to it's recruiting success. Minus the covid years, for the most part, penn state has beaten the teams where we had the recruiting advantage and lost to the teams with higher recruiting success. I see this continuing for penn state unless that one 5* recruit happens to play the most important position in sports, QB. If Drew Allar is >>> every opposing QB we play, I think there is enough talent in the rest of the roster to beat teams with a higher overall average. A 5* QB that actually plays at an all-american type level can mask quite a few deficiencies on a team. The other big problem for us lately is the DL position on both sides of the ball. As improved as our 0-line is, I think Georgia's DL would have eaten our cake last year. We also seem incapable of attracting the type of DL talent needed to win the big one. It's starting to feel like QB and DL are the two most important positions. Overall recruiting ranking is vital to forecast long term success, but if you have transcendent QB play, it might be enough.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Not knocking your post, but this is hardly revelatory. 5 years ago many on this board tried to argue it's primarily coaching, character, determination, etc. Nobody even tries to argue that sh*t anymore. Sure, programs can punch above their recruiting rankings in a game or maybe even a season, but they will get exposed eventually playing a team full of 5* like Georgia. The team with better recruits wins the majority of the time and those trend lines just continue to increase in college football. As it relates to Penn States case, I think it has materialized at a near perfect relation to it's recruiting success. Minus the covid years, for the most part, penn state has beaten the teams where we had the recruiting advantage and lost to the teams with higher recruiting success. I see this continuing for penn state unless that one 5* recruit happens to play the most important position in sports, QB. If Drew Allar is >>> every opposing QB we play, I think there is enough talent in the rest of the roster to beat teams with a higher overall average. A 5* QB that actually plays at an all-american type level can mask quite a few deficiencies on a team. The other big problem for us lately is the DL position on both sides of the ball. As improved as our 0-line is, I think Georgia's DL would have eaten our cake last year. We also seem incapable of attracting the type of DL talent needed to win the big one. It's starting to feel like QB and DL are the two most important positions. Overall recruiting ranking is vital to forecast long term success, but if you have transcendent QB play, it might be enough.

This is exactly right. A program like Penn State needs transcendent QB play and they can win the MNC. Without great QB play, Penn State can still win New Year's 6 games, but playoffs are just out of reach. I think we are in a similar situation as Clemson, who can win MNC's with a great QB, but not so much if the QB is average.

 

[rrdd2021]

This is exactly right. A program like Penn State needs transcendent QB play and they can win the MNC. Without great QB play, Penn State can still win New Year's 6 games, but playoffs are just out of reach. I think we are in a similar situation as Clemson, who can win MNC's with a great QB, but not so much if the QB is average.

You're kind of describing every NC contender

 

[ram2020]

You're kind of describing every NC contender

Not really. I don't think Greg McElroy or Mac Jones were transcendent QB's, but then again, alabama was 5* talent everywhere else. Penn state is a 4* talent team that is going to need a 5* QB performance to get to the playoffs.

 

[ryoder1]

Not knocking your post, but this is hardly revelatory. 5 years ago many on this board tried to argue it's primarily coaching, character, determination, etc. Nobody even tries to argue that sh*t anymore. Sure, programs can punch above their recruiting rankings in a game or maybe even a season, but they will get exposed eventually playing a team full of 5* like Georgia. The team with better recruits wins the majority of the time and those trend lines just continue to increase in college football. As it relates to Penn States case, I think it has materialized at a near perfect relation to it's recruiting success. Minus the covid years, for the most part, penn state has beaten the teams where we had the recruiting advantage and lost to the teams with higher recruiting success. I see this continuing for penn state unless that one 5* recruit happens to play the most important position

Yes, I think it is iffy that we could win it all with where we are now in terms of talent and then add to the mix a transformational QB. I agree it can cover a lot of warts but do think you need some game changing disrupters on the D line. I hope the QB is all we would need but not sure because without some big time studs on the D Line then another elite team could really expose that with a run game that opens up the pass and score a lot on us. Now we could theoretically score a lot too but if that team has a much better D Line then that could very well be the difference.

 

[ryoder1]

We are a long shot until we can average a top 5 to 10 class at the lowest. I do think we are getting there. One year of breaking through on the field could change the recruiting landscape. We are certainly over-performing slightly our recruiting rankings, not quite the same as Clemson when they first won a title and they had a down ACC to walk all over. But we are in the right ballpark.

Funny thing, you list the top 5 in recruiting average and then the 4 who have won recent titles and one is missing. That would be Ohio St and their choking in the playoffs likely hurts all of the Big 10 in terms of getting a bid if they are on the fence.

Good point that if we could breakthrough say this year and not necessarily win it all but get to the playoff or even the NC game that could change the recruiting landscape. Maybe we could get one or two of those elite DTs then. To me, that seems to be the missing sauce but also QB is a question. At QB I am really hoping Allar transforms it for us and then maybe Grunkemeyer who I am excited about.