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Roar's Notes -- Who Wants to Talk NCAA's?

RoarLions1

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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Using Flo’s Preseason Rankings, here’s a little light reading for those of you wanting a wrestling hit well before the season starts. I’ve called my musings worthless in the past, though it’s not completely true. Many attempt, and just as many fail, to quantify or measure a team’s scoring potential for the national tournament ACCURATELY. Still, I like doing this, if nothing else than for its entertainment value. You see, I’m not a journalist, just a decent fan. And for anyone that thinks it’s too early to look ahead to the NCAA Tournament…before the season has even begun, you’re right!

Two words of warning; TRUE FRESHMEN, and INJURIES. Ok, for those smart alecks among you, that’s 3 words…just stay with me. In 2017, there were 14 freshmen AA’s, 4 of them were TRUE FRESHMEN…and true freshmen are not included in the Preseason Flo Rankings. For the record, I feel that’s the way it should be. Injuries are a great unknown too, and WILL, without question, affect the outcome. Both are huge. My hope, as least regarding injuries, is that every wrestler, every team, stays healthy as they pursue their wrestling dreams.

As a finale (my last post on the matter, in a couple days), I will share my data. Just be patient, and hopefully a solid wrestling discussion will ensue with each of my Keys. In the meantime, here’s my 1st Key to Victory (one per day will be released), with at least 3 more to follow before sharing the data. It’s a little unfair to exclude the Michigan’s, Oklahoma State’s, and Missouri’s of the world, but right now, make no mistake, it’s a 2-horse race for the team championship, at least in my opinion. Therefore, my focus will be the Ohio State Buckeyes. ENJOY…

Number of Champs
Not the case every year. My opinion is that it is the #1 key in 2018. With 5 Champs in 2017 for the good guys, and 1 for the Buckeyes, a repeat in 2018 would spell doom for the worthless nuts (sorry, Buckeye fans). A 1st Place finish is worth 4 precious Points over 2nd, so we’re talking significant points here. The good news for the Buckeyes…it’s an extremely unlikely scenario, and I’d give it a 0% chance of happening. For the Buckeyes, Tomasello and Moore are preseason #1’s, rightly so, and could add 13 total Team Points for placement and advancement over their 3rd Place finishes in 2017 with individual championships. If B. Jordan, Martin, or even McKenna end-up as Champs, those are HUGE points for the Buckeyes. PSU, placement and advancement-wise, has nowhere to go but down from 149 through 184. Removing my Blue-and-White’s, and the chances of a 5-Champ repeat are in the 20-30% range, maybe lower. I’m personally hopeful, and that’s the goal, but the competition is fierce.

I see three near locks, 2 belonging to the good guys. I also see three others in Blue and White singlets that could or should be wrestling Saturday night. Similar for the Buckeyes, with at least two likely (Tomasello & Moore, as noted before), but so could B. Jordan, or Martin, though the other (McKenna) is a longer shot. Unraveling all of this and the permeations are overwhelming. This I believe though…that the law of averages suggests three champs for each, and PSU has the advantage for a 4th and/or 5th. Two big deals in all this is; (1) where Z. Valencia goes, and (2) a Hall vs Bo HTH if it happens.

2nd Key tomorrow...
 
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Sure, make us wait! Don't you know this is the instant gratification era!

Seriously, I appreciate your analysis and attempt to remove the BW glasses, something I am not capable of doing.
 
RoarLions1 said:
Using Flo’s Preseason Rankings, here’s a little light reading for those of you wanting a wrestling hit well before the season starts. I’ve called my musings worthless in the past, though it’s not completely true. Many attempt, and just as many fail, to quantify or measure a team’s scoring potential for the national tournament ACCURATELY. Still, I like doing this, if nothing else than for its entertainment value. You see, I’m not a journalist, just a decent fan. And for anyone that thinks it’s too early to look ahead to the NCAA Tournament…before the season has even begun, you’re right!

Two words of warning; TRUE FRESHMEN, and INJURIES. Ok, for those smart alecks among you, that’s 3 words…just stay with me. In 2017, there were 14 freshmen AA’s, 4 of them were TRUE FRESHMEN…and true freshmen are not included in the Preseason Flo Rankings. For the record, I feel that’s the way it should be. Injuries are a great unknown too, and WILL, without question, affect the outcome. Both are huge. My hope, as least regarding injuries, is that every wrestler, every team, stays healthy as they pursue their wrestling dreams.

As a finale (my last post on the matter, in a couple days), I will share my data. Just be patient, and hopefully a solid wrestling discussion will ensue with each of my Keys. In the meantime, here’s my 1st Key to Victory (one per day will be released), with at least 3 more to follow before sharing the data. It’s a little unfair to exclude the Michigan’s, Oklahoma State’s, and Missouri’s of the world, but right now, make no mistake, it’s a 2-horse race for the team championship, at least in my opinion. Therefore, my focus will be the Ohio State Buckeyes. ENJOY…

Number of Champs
Not the case every year. My opinion is that it is the #1 key in 2018. With 5 Champs in 2017 for the good guys, and 1 for the Buckeyes, a repeat in 2018 would spell doom for the worthless nuts (sorry, Buckeye fans). A 1st Place finish is worth 4 precious Points over 2nd, so we’re talking significant points here. The good news for the Buckeyes…it’s an extremely unlikely scenario, and I’d give it a 0% chance of happening. For the Buckeyes, Tomasello and Moore are preseason #1’s, rightly so, and could add 13 total Team Points for placement and advancement over their 3rd Place finishes in 2017 with individual championships. If B. Jordan, Martin, or even McKenna end-up as Champs, those are HUGE points for the Buckeyes. PSU, placement and advancement-wise, has nowhere to go but down from 149 through 184. Removing my Blue-and-White’s, and the chances of a 5-Champ repeat are in the 20-30% range, maybe lower. I’m personally hopeful, and that’s the goal, but the competition is fierce.

I see three near locks, 2 belonging to the good guys. I also see three others in Blue and White singlets that could or should be wrestling Saturday night. Similar for the Buckeyes, with at least two likely (Tomasello & Moore, as noted before), but so could B. Jordan, or Martin, though the other (McKenna) is a longer shot. Unraveling all of this and the permeations are overwhelming. This I believe though…that the law of averages suggests three champs for each, and PSU has the advantage for a 4th and/or 5th. Two big deals in all this is; (1) where Z. Valencia goes, and (2) a Hall vs Bo HTH if it happens.

2nd Key tomorrow...
Click to expand...
Did Snyder disappear from the face of the earth? I would include him in tOSU's point totals and I think I would pencil him in as a finalist.
 
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For what it's worth, per Flo's rankings, tournament points still have you guys a 125-117 favorite (of course, before any bonus points are awarded).
 
A worthy key, Roar. While its a combo play, I would say either Hall or Nickal winning is pretty much a lock too. Zahid can only wrestle one weight and he certainly will be a handful for one of them. I really feel Bo Jordan has topped out (and he's still a heck of a wrestler at that skill level!) and Hall will continue to grow and improve this season. I don't see Jordan being a threat to Mark this season. Sure, the scores will be close just because of the way Jordan wrestles but Mark will be in control by the end of the season.

Keep the key's coming!
 
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For anyone that missed it, Kyle Snyder, Zain Retherford, and Jason Nolf were the three “near locks” in Key #1. I’ll never say absolute “lock” when it comes to the National Tournament, as it’s not in my DNA to say anyone is 100% going to win. Healthy, and I can’t see them not winning (double negative, just trying to make you think!!).

Which leads me to Key #2, Bonus Points. I tossed and turned all night, lost all kinds of sleep, and fretted over this for months ;) till deciding on this key over key #3 (tomorrow’s post). They are interchangeable, and really could be 2A and 2B, imo.

#2 Key - Bonus Points
Comparing years again, PSU outscored tOSU 32.5 to 22.5 in Bonus Points in St. Louis, 2017. That’s a whopping 10 Point difference. If repeated, it too will go a long way towards a Penn State victory. Here’s the deal though; tOSU has more upside potential here. Hayes, McKenna, and Campbell are adds to the tOSU line-up, and we lost 2.5 Bonus Points with Jimmy’s graduation. It’s unlikely, imo, that the advantage will be 10 points in 2018, even if PSU’s lightweights match or exceed the 2.5 Points. tOSU looks like the one team that can almost match the huge Bonus Point advantage we’ve enjoyed since Cael’s arrival. A WAG would be a 5-8 Point PSU advantage in 2018, any more than that is a big deal.

Next Key, Tuesday...
 
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Personally, I think the bonus differential remains about the same as last year.

While McKenna and Campbell are 50% bonus guys, the reality is that McKenna is a 21% bonus guy against top 33 opponents and Campbell is a 10% bonus guy against top 33. And, that is in their RS SO and true JR years. Not enough data on Hayes to be meaningful. That gives McKenna a likelihood of 1 bonus win and Campbell a 50/50 for one bonus win. Further, in 11 matches at NCAA, McKenna has 1 BP win. Te'Shaun has 1 in 6 tries, against the 33 seed (I think).
I just don't see those three lighting up the BP board.

But, I do think between Hall, Joseph, Nevills and our 141, they make up for Jimmy and whatever points the three OSU guys do add.
 
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I expect we will hold the bonus point differential constant this year. I expect Hall, Cenzo, and Nevills to have many more bonus point matches this season than last year and that will even things back out.
 
I get the optimism regarding my last key. Looking back, we’ve never before won the Bonus Point battle by more points than this past March (10). Even during the DT and Ed years, we only had a 2.5, 9, 8.5, and 8.5 advantage, despite having 5 finalists two of those years. Yes, I looked at each wrestler this year too, and just see it differently than those that thought a 5-8 point advantage was too low. Snyder, for one, will best his 4 Bonus Points, and I just believe that Ohio State, arguably, the best #2 team of all-time, will keep it closer. As always, time will tell.

Other AA’s
A close 3rd in my list of keys (one could argue that this and Bonus Points could be switched), is the points earned by AA’ing 2nd through 8th Place on the podium. I’ve already mentioned Finalists, so the discussion about runner-ups is posted above. Looking at the preseason rankings, tOSU has, along with their hoped-for finalists, #9 Pletcher, #6 McKenna, #9 Hayes, #4 M. Jordan, #12 Campbell, and #3 B. Jordan. That’s a lot of upside! For example, with two #9’s in the group, a low AA finish (7th or 8th) for either could add 4-5 points per wrestler to the team race. A higher AA finish, and the net gain is more. And if a guy like Campbell gets there, it’s an even more significant point gain. Those are big “ifs”. Penn State, on the other hand, has no one listed at 125, 133, or 141, along with a #4 McCutcheon, and # 4 Nevills. I just don’t see as much upside for the Penn State bunch, unless the lightweights make a splash.

It is impossible that all will fall exactly where Flo placed them, so each gain or loss is a factor. Here’s some things to ponder;
What is the points effect if Z. Valencia moves up? What if McKenna and M. Jordan flip weight classes? Those questions, along with the True Freshmen performance will affect the team race. This “key”, imo, contains the highest variability of the 3 posted so far.

Final Key, and the early point estimates, and other stats tomorrow.
 
Great stuff as always.
I see improvement at 133, 141, 197 and Hall scoring more bonus points. Not a lot of wiggle room outside of that. Add Nevills as an improvement if he's been in the weight room all off season as SPyker wanted.
 
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Here's a good T-Row and Funky podcast with Tom Ryan:

https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/trowandfunkyshow/episodes/2017-09-19T12_25_54-07_00

As suspected, they're going all in this year to win a championship in Cleveland. Nato will go 125 but sit out selective duals to minimize the number of times he needs to make weight. Pletcher will go 133 with McKenna and Hayes going 141 and 149 or vice versa depending on the wrestle off result. Micah is going 157, Ryan thinks he has a good chance to beat Nolf (or at least a much better chance beating Nolf than he does Zain). Campbell is at 165 and is an AA threat. BoJo is finally healthy, has been able to train like a mad man all summer, and is on a mission to go out on top. The rest is self explanatory, MyMar will go 184 (Ryan thinks he's a strong contender to make the 2020 Olympic team), Moor 197 and Snyder HWT. Was complimentary of Penn State and the level PSU has set the bar at, but looks at the loss of Suriano coupled with their gains as huge turning points in the team race. Askren calls it a coin flip at this point, which is exciting given all the talk of just handing PSU the 2018 team trophy back in the spring.
 
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93Lion said:
Here's a good T-Row and Funky podcast with Tom Ryan:

https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/trowandfunkyshow/episodes/2017-09-19T12_25_54-07_00

As suspected, they're going all in this year to win a championship in Cleveland. Nato will go 125 but sit out selective duals to minimize the number of times he needs to make weight. Pletcher will go 133 with McKenna and Hayes going 141 and 149 or vice versa depending on the wrestle off result. Micah is going 157, Ryan thinks he has a good chance to beat Nolf (or at least a much better chance beating Nolf than he does Zain). Campbell is at 165 and is an AA threat. BoJo is finally healthy, has been able to train like a mad man all summer, and is on a mission to go out on top. The rest is self explanatory, MyMar will go 184 (Ryan thinks he's a strong contender to make the 2020 Olympic team), Moor 197 and Snyder HWT. Was complimentary of Penn State and the level PSU has set the bar at, but looks at the loss of Suriano coupled with their gains as huge turning points in the team race. Askren calls it a coin flip at this point, which is exciting given all the talk of just handing PSU the 2018 team trophy back in the spring.
Click to expand...
Well, there is some evidence that Micah might have a point:


Then, again, there's this:
 
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I don't see what's wrong with supporting your guy. It's only words, and will be settled on the mat, but believe positive reinforcement is motivation.
 
El-Jefe said:
Somebody call a doctor -- Tan Tom is suffering from sun stroke.
Click to expand...
Tan Tom is correct. Since Micah's bottom skills are weak he has about a 1 in a 1000 chance of beating Zain. With Nolf he has about a 1 in a 100 chance of winning. Improvement!
 
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Lyons212 said:
Tan Tom is correct. Since Micah's bottom skills are weak he has about a 1 in a 1000 chance of beating Zain. With Nolf he has about a 1 in a 100 chance of winning. Improvement!
Click to expand...

Nolf's skill from neutral will put those numbers back to 1 in a 1,000. I foresee a match where Jason plays with his food in the 3rd period looking for the fall instead of the TF. JMHO. Of course, until they take the match against each other Micah has a chance to win the match. :D
 
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I like and agree with all 3 of Roar's keys. I will add a 4th. Flameout of 1 or more wrestlers. Prime example from last year would be #2 seed Collica who went 1-2 and scored 2 points at NCAAs last season. A 5th key would be the flip side of #4 (although this is similar to Roar's point #3) which is someone well exceeding their seed. Bryce Meredith finishing 4th last year from the #10 seed or Lizak finishing 2nd as the #6 seed would be good examples.
 
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NoVa Lion said:
I like and agree with all 3 of Roar's keys. I will add a 4th. Flameout of 1 or more wrestlers. Prime example from last year would be #2 seed Collica who went 1-2 and scored 2 points at NCAAs last season. A 5th key would be the flip side of #4 (although this is similar to Roar's point #3) which is someone well exceeding their seed. Bryce Meredith finishing 4th last year from the #10 seed or Lizak finishing 2nd as the #6 seed would be good examples.
Click to expand...
flame out or hidden injury or touch of flu...
 
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What Tom meant to say about little Jordan wrestling Jason is Jordan at 157 is stacked and sturdy. He will be the first kid since I sent Jake out to wrestle that monster that I am not scared to death he might get harmed. I doubt he wins, but I am reasonably certain he survives.
 
Sorry guys, missed a day. To catch up, my notes below consist of two days worth of keys.

Key #4: 125, 133 and 141 for PSU
Ohio State has all 10 weight classes represented in the Flo top-20 preseason rankings. Penn State only has 7. Not knowing the PSU line-up at present, a significant point gain could come Penn State’s way, if some combination of a 125 pounder, Keener, Cortez or Lee come through with any points at all. A couple AA finishes, and it’s HUGE, one AA finish in the lower weights, and it’s still advantage PSU.


THE REAL KEY TO TOP ALL KEYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The real key isn’t any of the four that I’ve previously noted. What the heck did you just say, Roar? You’re confusing me!!

Let me explain…

Long before the guys hit the mats at the National Tournament, there’s a key to success that overwhelmingly dwarfs all others. We get caught up in the numbers…the rankings, seedings, placements, advancements, and bonus just prior to, and during the Championships. They are the RESULTS of what I propose is the KEY TO TOP ALL KEYS. And that key is PREPARATION.

If the guys are prepared, the results will follow. Penn State has guys with natural, innate wrestling ability, as much or more than any team in the country. That’s not enough. The PREPARATION, on the practice mat, in the classroom, managing weight, managing nutrition, and a big one, mental preparation…THOSE are what will win the championship. Our team just has to do it better than Ohio State, as pure wrestling talent is too close to call.

Numbers and stats next!!
 
Why do I feel that key #4 is going to get more talk than the other three between now and nationals.
 
NoVa Lion said:
Nolf's skill from neutral will put those numbers back to 1 in a 1,000. I foresee a match where Jason plays with his food in the 3rd period looking for the fall instead of the TF. JMHO. Of course, until they take the match against each other Micah has a chance to win the match. :D
Click to expand...
I like your Nolf analogy, playing with his food.
 
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NoVa Lion said:
I like and agree with all 3 of Roar's keys. I will add a 4th. Flameout of 1 or more wrestlers. Prime example from last year would be #2 seed Collica who went 1-2 and scored 2 points at NCAAs last season. A 5th key would be the flip side of #4 (although this is similar to Roar's point #3) which is someone well exceeding their seed. Bryce Meredith finishing 4th last year from the #10 seed or Lizak finishing 2nd as the #6 seed would be good examples.
Click to expand...

I thought Collica suffered from a head injury? Thought I read that somewhere.
 
RoarLions1 said:
Not corroborated anywhere that I saw, though a Cowboy poster mentioned a late-season concussion on 34-and-holding.
Click to expand...
The rumor was that AC wasn't released from the concussion protocol until the Monday before Nationals. Which would lead to a very hard cut to make, since he didn't participate in practice and was unable to even condition until his release. Easy to see how that would lead to a poor showing.
 
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El-Jefe said:
Somebody call a doctor -- Tan Tom is suffering from sun stroke.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, Ryan is right about the impact of the Suriano saga. At 125, PSU goes from a likely finalist with some legit bonus point potential to a probable goose-egg. It's a huge loss for PSU, and may open the door for Brutus. :(:eek:
 
Finally, my last substantive post, some of the early-season facts and figures. I do hope y'all enjoyed most of, or at least a piece of this effort. Many thanks!

Stats and Data
Sans Bonus Points, the Preseason Flo rankings suggest the following team scores:

PSU 125
tOSU 117
Michigan 83
Ok State 78
Missouri 57.5
Lehigh 46
…and Ariz State, VA Tech, Iowa, and Minny rounding out the top 10.

Of course, we know this will not be the final finish, and only a crazy (meaning “extremely enthusiastic”, not “deranged” :)) man or woman would think that. Rankings are for paper optimists, those that believe championships are won somewhere other than the mat.

Since I took the time to place the rankings into a database, here are some other fun facts for you;

--Ohio State has all ten guys in the top-20 Preseason Rankings, the only team to do so. Okie State and Michigan follow with 8, and Illinois, Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin all have 7.

-- Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State have the highest number of predicted All-Americans, tied with 7. Okie State is next with 6, and Missouri is alone, with 5, and VA Tech, Minny, and Lehigh have 4 each.

-- Ohio State loses the most in 2018-19, when looking at predicted Placement and Advancement Points only, with 53.5 Points. 2nd is Michigan, at 35 Points, and 3rd is PSU with 32.5. Rounding out the next couple of teams; NC State (32), Missouri (29.5), Okie State (21.5), and Rutgers (18.5). This is a one-sided view of a team, as all will have a chance to reload with a fresh face.

Well, that’s it. # of Champs, Bonus Points, Other AA’s, and how Penn State fares at 125, 133 & 141, are my keys…for now. And don’t forget PREPARATION!!. While it’s a long, brutal season in some regards, the time (for me, anyway) flies by too quickly. I wish all the wrestlers good health, and all of you, my forum buds, good health as well.

:):):)
 
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