It always seems as though Shep Garner is either lights out or atrocious from 3 pt range, with nothing in between. I decided to try to see how much truth there is to that. I took a look at every game Shep has played at Penn State, then compared how well he shot for the game if he hit at least 1 of the first 2 three point attempts he took against how he shot if he missed his first two. I thought this might tell us whether we know what kind of game Shep is going to have based on those first two shots. Here it is:
If Shep hits 1 of his first 2 three point attempts, he is 177/399 from deep, or 44.4%.
If Shep misses his first 2 three point attempts, he is 51/240 from deep, or 21.3%.
Now, one could easily argue that those first two shots alone raised or lowered his percentages, so I decided to look at how Shep did if we looked at whether he made 1 of the first 2 three point shots, but then didn't count those 2 shots. Essentially, this stat considers only how Shep shot AFTER those first 2 shots. Here is what I found:
If Shep hits 1 of his first 2 three point attempts, he is 108/283 from deep after that, or 38.2%.
If Shep misses his first 2 three point attempts, he is 51/154 from deep after that, or 33.1%.
While that 5.1% difference isn't enormous, it is certainly significant. There is no question Penn State wants a 38.2% Garner on the court. There is some question whether they want a 33.1% Garner out there. Perhaps there would be some validity to Shep sitting a larger number of minutes in games where he misses his first two, because his history shows he's unlikely to bounce back within the same game. That said, 33% isn't...awful, and it at least forces an opponent to pay some attention to the perimeter, so he may be worth having out there regardless.
If Shep hits 1 of his first 2 three point attempts, he is 177/399 from deep, or 44.4%.
If Shep misses his first 2 three point attempts, he is 51/240 from deep, or 21.3%.
Now, one could easily argue that those first two shots alone raised or lowered his percentages, so I decided to look at how Shep did if we looked at whether he made 1 of the first 2 three point shots, but then didn't count those 2 shots. Essentially, this stat considers only how Shep shot AFTER those first 2 shots. Here is what I found:
If Shep hits 1 of his first 2 three point attempts, he is 108/283 from deep after that, or 38.2%.
If Shep misses his first 2 three point attempts, he is 51/154 from deep after that, or 33.1%.
While that 5.1% difference isn't enormous, it is certainly significant. There is no question Penn State wants a 38.2% Garner on the court. There is some question whether they want a 33.1% Garner out there. Perhaps there would be some validity to Shep sitting a larger number of minutes in games where he misses his first two, because his history shows he's unlikely to bounce back within the same game. That said, 33% isn't...awful, and it at least forces an opponent to pay some attention to the perimeter, so he may be worth having out there regardless.
