So how much does the Offense fall off at least in the first few games?

[marisa45]

I've been watching this all off season long and there are quite a few viewpoints out there among the pundits but I'm interested in what the board thinks.

The Big Ten pundits have us ranked #3 to #5 overall as a team. Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin are being put ahead of us for the most part. A lot of those views are based on a considerably younger defense. On offense, outside of McSorley, the skill positions are almost a complete overhaul and it will take some time to find out the right mix based on current personnel.

So how long does it take the offense to gel? How big a loss is Moorhead on balance? Do we see a dominant wideout developing this year, and outside Juwan Johnson who may that be? What's the over/under on scoring offense? (2017 it was 41.1, does anyone see 30+ points a game.......35+ a game?) Are big plays sacrificed for staying on schedule on offense?

I see more of a ball control offense this year vs. the big play capability we had last year which would fundamentally change the offense. We weren't in the top 50 rushing offenses last year. I can see this team, based on the offensive line, being a top 10 rushing offense. How does that change the passing offense? Are we more of a 50/50 balanced offense and what does that mean for the team? Will it take time for McSorley to adjust to a less explosive pace of play?

One thing is for sure, if we don't have the dominant offensive line we think we have, this offense will struggle.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

I've been watching this all off season and there are quite a few viewpoints out there among the pundits but I'm interested in what the board thinks.

The Big Ten pundits have us ranked #3 to #5 overall as a team. Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin are being put ahead of us for the most part. A lot of those views are based on a considerably younger defense. On offense, outside of McSorley, the skill positions are almost a complete overhaul and it will take some time to find out the right mix based on current personnel.

So how long does it take to gel? How big a loss is Moorhead on balance? Do we see a dominant wideout developing this year, and outside Juwan Johnson who may that be? What's the over/under on scoring offense? (2017 it was 41.1, does anyone see 30+ points a game.......35+ a game?) Are big plays sacrificed for staying on schedule on offense?

I see more of a ball control offense this year vs. the big play capability we had last year which would fundamentally change the offense. We weren't in the top 50 rushing offenses last year. I can see this team, based on the offensive line, being a top 10 rushing offense. How does that change the passing offense? Are we more of a 50/50 balanced offense and what does that mean for the team?

One thing is for sure, if we don't have the dominant offensive line we think we have, this offense will struggle.

The pieces are there and I think OSU will have a tougher time replacing Barrett than we will have replacing anyone on our offense. I think they have some ballers, but they're pretty green. My personal theory is there will be less pressure to go to Saquon and TM will have options everywhere. We probably play pretty conservative for a couple of games, but gloves off come Pittsburgh.

 

[GregInPitt]

It does not. The biggest reasons to me are Trace and the OL. When you have an experienced OL and a very experienced QB that can use his feet to get extra time in the pocket or run, that will cover inexperience with some of the skill players. Sure there will be a few drops by WR's, which will decrease as the young guns get more comfortable on the field and with the plays and schemes (and playing in front of 100+K).

Lots of talent in the skill positions. Sanders, Slade, JBrown at RB with Allen there as a leader. JJ, Thompkins, Polk, Hippenhopper, CSB, and also Shorter. Dotson was not mentioned as Green, but he should play some with the new redshirt rule and may also get the call to green if there are injuries.

We are finally back to reload mode which we have not seen in 15+ years.

 

[ivan brunetti]

Barkley is a significant loss. Offense will still be good but will take a step back.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

O will be as good or better:

- we will NOT miss Moorhead.

- fewer running plays will result in big losses.

- the wealth will be spread around.

- we will have better FG kicking.

- the D will actually create more opportunities for the O.

Not to worry.

 

[marisa45]

The pieces are there and I think OSU will have a tougher time replacing Barrett than we will have replacing anyone on our offense. I think they have some ballers, but they're pretty green. My personal theory is there will be less pressure to go to Saquon and TM will have options everywhere. We probably play pretty conservative for a couple of games, but gloves off come Pittsburgh.

I agree, I think OSU will have a tough time in this environment with that team (and a young, inexperienced QB). I think we win that game.

I also see McSorley needing at least an adjustment period to rearrange the current pieces to an new offensive skill group with perhaps a slight enhancement in philosophy. I think the B&W game tipped that off a bit. Johnson and Thompkins will help. Michigan on the road is a concern.

 

[marisa45]

O will be as good or better:

- we will NOT miss Moorhead.

- fewer running plays will result in big losses.

- the wealth will be spread around.

- we will have better FG kicking.

- the D will actually create more opportunities for the O.

Not to worry.

Not worried at all, but I think this offense looks considerably different. Less explosive (at least to begin with) and more balanced. I think we should be ready for a different style of play based on strengths.

 

[ColinPSU]

I think losing Barkley actually helps the offense - not hurt it.

26 Was great for the big play, but it was pretty much boom or bust. Additionally, the defense really didn't care about the other 10 players on the field. Multiple times we saw teams "sell out" to stop 26.

With now more of a balanced look on offense, I think we are actually in a better place with Sanders/McSorley RPO. Additionally, our OL should be more experienced leading to better blitz IDs and stronger run blocking.

Moorhead was not a huge loss and, frankly, lost us games because of his lack of creativity from a personnel and formation variation standpoint which never forced defenses to adjust or rotate out of their base package for the week. If Rahne can be better at personnel groups and formation variations we should win every game. Hopefully, we also see 9 call more audibles from the line and not rely so heavily on look back calls.

 

[marisa45]

Al sorts of other considerations.... but the one that will have a bigger impact than all of the others put together is this:

and this

vs

and this

Will we see a big drop-off?
Continuation at the 2016/2017 level?
An improvement?


That is the overriding unknown going into 2018 (IMO).

We'll know better in another few weeks

I think Josh Gattis might be a bigger loss than Joe Moorhead. Don't get me wrong, Joe Moorhead was an obvious head coaching candidate, but we new PSU was going to be a stop in the road for him. Gattis was one of CJF's "culture" guys and probably one of the best, if not THE best position coaches we had.

Can't lose a coach to money in the future! To see how well Chris Godwin, Desean Hamilton and Gesicki are doing thus far is a testament to his coaching.

 

[Connorpozlee]

Barkley is indeed a big loss, but I hope that he can be made up for by a little different design in the running game.
And thinking back on Penn State history, DJ Dozier was a big loss, but he was replaced by Blair Thomas. Richie Anderson was a big loss, but he was replaced by Ki-Jana Carter. The drop off doesn’t have to be massive.

 

[ApexLion]

I've been watching this all off season long and there are quite a few viewpoints out there among the pundits but I'm interested in what the board thinks.

The Big Ten pundits have us ranked #3 to #5 overall as a team. Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin are being put ahead of us for the most part. A lot of those views are based on a considerably younger defense. On offense, outside of McSorley, the skill positions are almost a complete overhaul and it will take some time to find out the right mix based on current personnel.

So how long does it take the offense to gel? How big a loss is Moorhead on balance? Do we see a dominant wideout developing this year, and outside Juwan Johnson who may that be? What's the over/under on scoring offense? (2017 it was 41.1, does anyone see 30+ points a game.......35+ a game?) Are big plays sacrificed for staying on schedule on offense?

I see more of a ball control offense this year vs. the big play capability we had last year which would fundamentally change the offense. We weren't in the top 50 rushing offenses last year. I can see this team, based on the offensive line, being a top 10 rushing offense. How does that change the passing offense? Are we more of a 50/50 balanced offense and what does that mean for the team? Will it take time for McSorley to adjust to a less explosive pace of play?

One thing is for sure, if we don't have the dominant offensive line we think we have, this offense will struggle.

It's not the O. It's the D and injuries. A slew of guys banged up.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

We will score close to 200 pts in the first 4 weeks. Is that a drop-off? I don't know

 

[marisa45]

It's not the O. It's the D and injuries. A slew of guys banged up.

Granted Apex but I don't see 40+ points per game. Not that its a bad thing at all; more balance and a better, more consistent running game cost us a shot at the playoff last year. Being able to run when we needed to versus running to open up the pass.

So where do you see the over/under on points per game given we were at 40+ last year?

 

[GregInPitt]

It's not the O. It's the D and injuries. A slew of guys banged up.

Yep, but that will pay dividends as the season goes on as long as the injuries heal and those players get back by game 3 and are ready for oh-high-ya. Getting the young talent on the field early will have them going strong by mid season.

 

[MJG-90]

- fewer running plays will result in big losses.

- we will have better FG kicking.

If the bowl game is any indication, the RPO decision was made a lot more quickly allowing the RB to take the handoff while still moving forward. That alone meant the LBs couldn't just run to #26 (they couldn't get there fast enough).

Having better FG kicking will change the play calling once in typical FG range. Last year we couldn't count on anything outside of 30 yards.

The biggest change will hopefully be on the OL though. Plenty of third year starters (4 started some games in 2016) and only Menet doesn't have a ton of experience (but he's the highest rated of all coming out of HS).

My only concern is that 26 didn't fumble the ball ever. Even an ordinary number of fumbles from 24 could spell trouble if they occur at inopportune times.

 

[marisa45]

I think losing Barkley actually helps the offense - not hurt it.

26 Was great for the big play, but it was pretty much boom or bust. Additionally, the defense really didn't care about the other 10 players on the field. Multiple times we saw teams "sell out" to stop 26.

With now more of a balanced look on offense, I think we are actually in a better place with Sanders/McSorley RPO. Additionally, our OL should be more experienced leading to better blitz IDs and stronger run blocking.

Moorhead was not a huge loss and, frankly, lost us games because of his lack of creativity from a personnel and formation variation standpoint which never forced defenses to adjust or rotate out of their base package for the week. If Rahne can be better at personnel groups and formation variations we should win every game. Hopefully, we also see 9 call more audibles from the line and not rely so heavily on look back calls.

And you're from Brooklyn.......treasonous. Barkley had everyone out of position last year. No way we see as many runs out of McSorley where he's not touched until 20 yards down the field.

 

[ColinPSU]

And you're from Brooklyn.......treasonous. Barkley had everyone out of position last year, I don't think we see as may runs out of McSorley not even being touched until 20 yards down the field.

Sure we might not see that, but we will see more consistent execution because there isn't a once in a generation player potentially getting the ball.

Which I would prefer getting 3 or 4 ypc against every team (OSU, UM, and MSU included) over having 20 yard runs against Rutgers/Pitt/IU with poor running games against the top teams.

 

[Howie'81]

It does not. The biggest reasons to me are Trace and the OL. When you have an experienced OL and a very experienced QB that can use his feet to get extra time in the pocket or run, that will cover inexperience with some of the skill players. Sure there will be a few drops by WR's, which will decrease as the young guns get more comfortable on the field and with the plays and schemes (and playing in front of 100+K).

Lots of talent in the skill positions. Sanders, Slade, JBrown at RB with Allen there as a leader. JJ, Thompkins, Polk, Hippenhopper, CSB, and also Shorter. Dotson was not mentioned as Green, but he should play some with the new redshirt rule and may also get the call to green if there are injuries.

We are finally back to reload mode which we have not seen in 15+ years.

Yup. Totally agree.

 

[Howie'81]

I agree, I think OSU will have a tough time in this environment with that team (and a young, inexperienced QB). I think we win that game.

I also see McSorley needing at least an adjustment period to rearrange the current pieces to an new offensive skill group with perhaps a slight enhancement in philosophy. I think the B&W game tipped that off a bit. Johnson and Thompkins will help. Michigan on the road is a concern.

To be honest Marisa, the only thing I ever take out of the B&W game is how the weather is?

 

[marisa45]

Sure we might not see that, but we will see more consistent execution because there isn't a once in a generation player potentially getting the ball.

Which I would prefer getting 3 or 4 ypc against every team (OSU, UM, and MSU included) over having 20 yard runs against Rutgers/Pitt/IU with poor running games against the top teams.

OK consistent sure, but not as explosive.....not necessarily better or worse, just different.

So are you a Giants fan too?

 

[ApexLion]

Yep, but that will pay dividends as the season goes on as long as the injuries heal and those players get back by game 3 and are ready for oh-high-ya. Getting the young talent on the field early will have them going strong by mid season.

We hope so.

 

[marisa45]

To be honest Marisa, the only thing I ever take out of the B&W game is how the weather is?

Touché Howie. I like the new sig pic by the way, makes you look younger. LOL

 

[KnightSlayer]

I've been watching this all off season long and there are quite a few viewpoints out there among the pundits but I'm interested in what the board thinks.

The Big Ten pundits have us ranked #3 to #5 overall as a team. Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin are being put ahead of us for the most part. A lot of those views are based on a considerably younger defense. On offense, outside of McSorley, the skill positions are almost a complete overhaul and it will take some time to find out the right mix based on current personnel.

So how long does it take the offense to gel? How big a loss is Moorhead on balance? Do we see a dominant wideout developing this year, and outside Juwan Johnson who may that be? What's the over/under on scoring offense? (2017 it was 41.1, does anyone see 30+ points a game.......35+ a game?) Are big plays sacrificed for staying on schedule on offense?

I see more of a ball control offense this year vs. the big play capability we had last year which would fundamentally change the offense. We weren't in the top 50 rushing offenses last year. I can see this team, based on the offensive line, being a top 10 rushing offense. How does that change the passing offense? Are we more of a 50/50 balanced offense and what does that mean for the team? Will it take time for McSorley to adjust to a less explosive pace of play?

One thing is for sure, if we don't have the dominant offensive line we think we have, this offense will struggle.

1) The QB is the most important position on the field. We have a senior who has won 22 games the last 2 years.
2) Juwan Johnson was a first year starter and had one more catch than our #1 WR last year. Thompkins is a very experienced #2. Not worried about our wideouts especially with such an experienced QB.
3) Barkley was a once in a generation RB but, we are replacing him with a 4 star #1 ranked RB out of HS. From what I've read, the coaches are very high on him and expect big things this fall.
4) I'd express my opinion about the Oline differently than you. If our Oline is dominant, this offense will be damn near unstoppable. If the Oline is just very good, we will be in the mix for the Big 10 title and possible playoff. If the Oline is average, we will struggle this year.
5) While we lost a good deal of experience from the defense last year, I like the talent levels of our players better this year. Plus, we get Reid back at CB.

 

[Howie'81]

Barkley is indeed a big loss, but I hope that he can be made up for by a little different design in the running game.
And thinking back on Penn State history, DJ Dozier was a big loss, but he was replaced by Blair Thomas. Richie Anderson was a big loss, but he was replaced by Ki-Jana Carter. The drop off doesn’t have to be massive.

I'm glad you remember that and I'm not the only one. So many people here missed Joe in his prime. Especially at the RB and LB positions, stars would leave and stars would replace them. Based on how we're recruiting, that's what we should again expect, not merely hope.

 

[marisa45]

1) The QB is the most important position on the field. We have a senior who has won 22 games the last 2 years.
2) Juwan Johnson was a first year starter and had one more catch than our #1 WR last year. Thompkins is a very experienced #2. Not worried about our wideouts especially with such an experienced QB.
3) Barkley was a once in a generation RB but, we are replacing him with a 4 star #1 ranked RB out of HS. From what I've read, the coaches are very high on him and expect big things this fall.
4) I'd express my opinion about the Oline differently than you. If our Oline is dominant, this offense will be damn near unstoppable. If the Oline is just very good, we will be in the mix for the Big 10 title and possible playoff. If the Oline is average, we will struggle this year.
5) While we lost a good deal of experience from the defense last year, I like the talent levels of our players better this year. Plus, we get Reid back at CB.

Very precise Slayer. Nice job.

Agree on the defense, the back 4 or 5 is fine, up the middle is a concern.

 

[tboyer]

I can't see any falloff in the first few games. I think they'll be explosive because they'll be dominant up front. Until Ohio State, PSU is going to up against defenses that won't be able to get a lot of pressure without blitzing, and we know how McSorley eats blitzes for breakfast.

People say the OL is unproven, but if you consider the bowl game, really they're not. 5 of the top 6 OL played in the Fiesta Bowl where they controlled a pretty good UW defense.

App State has some good defenders, Pitt has some good defenders, but they're not going to be better than UW's athletes and probably they won't be as good.

So I think it could be the opposite of what you're suggesting. The offense probably will be very explosive early. The test will be when they see teams that match up well athletically -- Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, maybe Iowa. Against those teams, they could miss Barkley and Hamilton. We'll see.

 

[Howie'81]

It's not the O. It's the D and injuries. A slew of guys banged up.

CJF just said at his presser that the team is healthy. He mentioned Shorter and Simmons as being a little dinged up, but that was it.

 

[bxle]

Really like reading the depth chart for the offensive line. Really solid.

 

[Howie'81]

And you're from Brooklyn.......treasonous. Barkley had everyone out of position last year. No way we see as many runs out of McSorley where he's not touched until 20 yards down the field.

That depends a lot on Miles, doesn't it?

 

[ColinPSU]

OK consistent sure, but not as explosive.....not necessarily better or worse, just different.

So are you a Giants fan too?

Sadly a Jets fan. But obviously will be watching more Giants games this year.

 

[tboyer]

2) Juwan Johnson was a first year starter and had one more catch than our #1 WR last year. Thompkins is a very experienced #2. Not worried about our wideouts especially with such an experienced QB.

Plus Polk, whose relationship with Trace goes back to high school, and Hamler, who should be ready to explode this year.

Plus the TEs are getting no discussion, but they have all been in the program a while even if they haven't had game experience. There is definitely talent at TE if Holland, Dalton and Bowers can stay healthy this year -- this could be an upside surprise.

They will miss Barkley on the wheel, but who knows, maybe Slade has had a chance to practice that play a little.

 

[marisa45]

I can't see any falloff in the first few games. I think they'll be explosive because they'll be dominant up front. Until Ohio State, PSU is going to up against defenses that won't be able to get a lot of pressure without blitzing, and we know how McSorley eats blitzes for breakfast.

People say the OL is unproven, but if you consider the bowl game, really they're not. 5 of the top 6 OL played in the Fiesta Bowl where they controlled a pretty good UW defense.

App State has some good defenders, Pitt has some good defenders, but they're not going to be better than UW's athletes and probably they won't be as good.

So I think it could be the opposite of what you're suggesting. The offense probably will be very explosive early. The test will be when they see teams that match up well athletically -- Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, maybe Iowa. Against those teams, they could miss Barkley and Hamilton. We'll see.

Very Interesting viewpoint T-Bo.

I don't think the experience of the starters or their talent concerns me as much as their ability to gel into that dominant or above average unit we're counting on. Sure there were flashes against Michigan and Washington but can this be a consistent, dominant or above average O-Line? I don't know.

We were all saying they were going to be a strength last year and they were much improved but not quite a strength.

CJF and Rahne have clearly pointed to the O-Line and seem to be asking them to take it to the next level. Can they do it? Will they do it? I don't know.

 

[PSU87]

That depends a lot on Miles, doesn't it?

Exactly. If Sanders doesn't have three guys keying on him like Barkley did, he doesn't have to be as good as Barkley to get the same production.

 

[WDLion]

Not worried at all, but I think this offense looks considerably different. Less explosive (at least to being with) and more balanced. I think we should be ready for a different style of play based on strengths.

It can be less explosive and still be better. Less explosive but less implosive.

 

[LemonEars]

Al sorts of other considerations.... but the one that will have a bigger impact than all of the others put together is this:

and this

vs

and this

Will we see a big drop-off?
Continuation at the 2016/2017 level?
An improvement?


That is the overriding unknown going into 2018 (IMO).

We'll know better in another few weeks

I think we will know better in exactly 5 weeks. We start the season with 4 cupcakes. We may score 50 points against each and then get shut out by our first real test in Ohio State. The first few games won't tell us anything about the offense or defense. The Ohio State game will tell us everything.

 

[marisa45]

That depends a lot on Miles, doesn't it?

I don't think it would be realistic to expect Milers to attract as much attention but who knows. SB was the best RB of at least a generation at PSU, if not the best ever.

I think Colin is right about one thing. Less dependence on Barkley means everyone will need to step up their game. Is it enough? Maybe.

The coaches recognize this and the narrative out of camp from the players is that you don't replace Barkley with one player. You do it with a number of players playing that much better as a team.

I think different is the word, not necessarily better, not necessarily worse. Consistent may be a more useful word than explosive when it comes to winning championships and getting that elusive CFB Championship berth.

 

[delcoLion]

It does not. The biggest reasons to me are Trace and the OL. When you have an experienced OL and a very experienced QB that can use his feet to get extra time in the pocket or run, that will cover inexperience with some of the skill players. Sure there will be a few drops by WR's, which will decrease as the young guns get more comfortable on the field and with the plays and schemes (and playing in front of 100+K).

Lots of talent in the skill positions. Sanders, Slade, JBrown at RB with Allen there as a leader. JJ, Thompkins, Polk, Hippenhopper, CSB, and also Shorter. Dotson was not mentioned as Green, but he should play some with the new redshirt rule and may also get the call to green if there are injuries.

We are finally back to reload mode which we have not seen in 15+ years.

I like your optimism but, IMHO, replacing the lost production of Barkley, et al will not happen as quick as many expect. Even when Joe was in his prime, when that much yardage was lost, it took time to get the young players developed.

 

[marisa45]

I think we will know better in exactly 5 weeks. We start the season with 4 cupcakes. We may score 50 points against each and then get shut out by our first real test in Ohio State. The first few games won't tell us anything about the offense or defense. The Ohio State game will tell us everything.

Agreed, but I can see this offense at 35+ for the first four games. App State and Pitt will not be cake walks. I think Illinois plays better in Lovie's 3rd year. Lovie can scheme with the best of them and he gets his players to play hard.

 

[GregInPitt]

I like your optimism but, IMHO, replacing the lost production of Barkley, et al will not happen as quick as many expect. Even when Joe was in his prime, when that much yardage was lost, it took time to get the young players developed.

It take more time when there are new players at every or most positions. That is not the case this year on offense as it is on defense. And for example when DJ Dozier burst on the scene it did not take long for him to run wild. Joe did not always have plug and play players, and we don't know for sure if we have them this year. But Sanders is a mature high talent that very likely will hit the ground running. And this year's returning OL, in tact except for Mahon but with a 3rd year high 4 star talent in Menet, is an ideal situation to anchor an offense. CJF has loaded up on skill players and expecting a slow ramp up is pretty pessimistic considering what bringing back a 3rd year starting QB on pace to set every PSU passing record and a pre-season Heisman pick also brings to the offense.....

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Man, we could make the playoffs or we could lose to UM, OSU, MSU and WI. And possibly others.

This could be our best OL in a decade. If it is, the inexperienced/rising talent is in the right places for a top QB and OL to light up the scoreboards. Sanders isn't Saquon (obviously) but he reminds me of Mike Hart--only faster and with less ego. Hart did great things with a solid OL a solid QB. But he didn't have Sanders' top end and his WRs weren't as threatening.

There are 5 legit contenders to win the BIG. Easier to bet we'll end up 3rd in division than in the B1G C game but who knows. Like 2016, we'll have to score A LOT to overcome the loses on D. Even with unproven talent, there's still way more talent and less holes. I suspect we'll know how good this team is before the big test v OSU.

Although it's easy to expect a few losses over the season, I can't wait to see how this one plays out. Nice being a powerhouse again. Go Nits.