So how much does the Offense fall off at least in the first few games?

[GregInPitt]

1) The QB is the most important position on the field. We have a senior who has won 22 games the last 2 years.
2) Juwan Johnson was a first year starter and had one more catch than our #1 WR last year. Thompkins is a very experienced #2. Not worried about our wideouts especially with such an experienced QB.
3) Barkley was a once in a generation RB but, we are replacing him with a 4 star #1 ranked RB out of HS. From what I've read, the coaches are very high on him and expect big things this fall.
4) I'd express my opinion about the Oline differently than you. If our Oline is dominant, this offense will be damn near unstoppable. If the Oline is just very good, we will be in the mix for the Big 10 title and possible playoff. If the Oline is average, we will struggle this year.
5) While we lost a good deal of experience from the defense last year, I like the talent levels of our players better this year. Plus, we get Reid back at CB.

About the only thing I don't agree with is that if the OL is average, we will still win at least 9 games. McSorely made up for an average OL the past 2 years, and we know Olinemen get stronger and make less mistakes each game they play. Saquon was the best we have had, but we know we have a good stable of running backs this year, with Sanders, Slade JB, and Allen. TE is the biggest question mark to me, but if we have someone in there that can block that will help the run game, cut down on the lost yardage plays, and make the chunk plays just a bonus as we will have less 3rd and eights.....

 

[GreggK]

I honestly think that our offense will be MORE productive than last year. There are several reasons why.

1. Teams will no longer key in on Saquon. This is a huge deal.

2. Our offensive line will be the best it has been in years.

3. Our receivers are solid. My mind was blown how BIGnetwork glossed over this. Hamilton was great but he wasn't chris Godwin or Allen Robinson. When they mentioned that, it was if they were trying hard to find faults.

4. While it is true we will lose production at TE, but we should gain blocking from that position.

5. The loss of Moorhead is an unknown, but, I will say this. I became VERY frustrated with his playcalling at times last year. For instance, the insistence of running Saquon up the middle in games like the 2nd half of OSU and michigan state. I was baffled. I think if the system stays intact, maybe Rahne can improve on the playcalling.

6. Miles Sanders will greatly benefit from an improved line and less reliance on the run game.


All in all, I think our offense will take a step FORWARD not backward. But the real key is the offensive line

 

[LemonEars]

Agreed, but I can see this offense at 35+ for the first four games. App State and Pitt will not be cake walks. I think Illinois plays better in Lovie's 3rd year. Lovie can scheme with the best of them and he gets his players to play hard.

I can see us sputter a bit in the early part of the App State game due to opening game jitters. We should hammer them in the second half.

If we don't totally dominate the hapless pitters from the start then I think that portends bad things for the real games against Ohio State, MSU, etc.

 

[Blue and White Blood]

If our offense when leading in a hard fought game in the 4th quarter can convert a few more 3rd and 3 yards situations, we will be better.

 

[emrtmakesshiteup]

I think Josh Gattis might be a bigger loss than Joe Moorhead. Don't get me wrong, Joe Moorhead was an obvious head coaching candidate, but we new PSU was going to be a stop in the road for him. Gattis was one of CJF's "culture" guys and probably one of the best, if not THE best position coaches we had.

Can't lose a coach to money in the future! To see how well Chris Godwin, Desean Hamilton and Gesicki are doing thus far is a testament to his coaching.

Tend to agree, however, having said that, practices are filmed so if the new coach earns the trust of the receivers previous practices can be mimicked. The one thing that drove me nuts is the inability to sneak for half a yard. It has been argued here that there isn't time to practice QB under center. Sneak straight, left or right, come on! O'B did not have a kicker so he went on dozens of 4th and x and made most of them! We now have a decent OL, correct?

 

[Judge Smails]

On offense, outside of McSorley, the skill positions are almost a complete overhaul

Extensive Experience
Miles Sanders
Juwan Johnson
DeAndre Thompkins

Relatively inexperienced
John Holland RS Jr
KJ Hamler RS Fr

I'm not seeing "complete overhaul" at skill positions.

 

[PearlSUJam]

My only concern is that 26 didn't fumble the ball ever. Even an ordinary number of fumbles from 24 could spell trouble if they occur at inopportune times.

Also, 26 was one Hell of a pass blocker. My fear is that 24 will get pushed around and Marcus Allen will have to come in on obvious passing downs. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[tboyer]

Very Interesting viewpoint T-Bo.

I don't think the experience of the starters or their talent concerns me as much as their ability to gel into that dominant or above average unit we're counting on. Sure there were flashes against Michigan and Washington but can this be a consistent, dominant or above average O-Line? I don't know.

We were all saying they were going to be a strength last year and they were much improved but not quite a strength.

Definitely one of the big questions this year. They did play very well against against Michigan and held their own against Ohio State until Bates got hurt. Then they looked like a big-time line in the Fiesta.

The optimistic case is that having Menet take over at center kind of unlocks the potential of this group. They can pull McGovern and just overwhelm people on the left side like they did with Mahon against against Washington. The thing is, these guys are huge and they can run.

But really the test won't be until Sept. 29. They could look absolutely dominant early season and then look really terrible playing against an entire D-line made up of NFL quality athletes.

 

[Judge Smails]

I think losing Barkley actually helps the offense - not hurt it.

26 Was great for the big play, but it was pretty much boom or bust. Additionally, the defense really didn't care about the other 10 players on the field. Multiple times we saw teams "sell out" to stop 26.

With now more of a balanced look on offense, I think we are actually in a better place with Sanders/McSorley RPO. Additionally, our OL should be more experienced leading to better blitz IDs and stronger run blocking.

Moorhead was not a huge loss and, frankly, lost us games because of his lack of creativity from a personnel and formation variation standpoint which never forced defenses to adjust or rotate out of their base package for the week. If Rahne can be better at personnel groups and formation variations we should win every game. Hopefully, we also see 9 call more audibles from the line and not rely so heavily on look back calls.

I think the staff had a goal of trying to get Barkley the Heisman last year. There were way too many runs called into defenses loading too many in the box. I think that factor being gone is going to help out a bunch this year as well.

 

[GregInPitt]

Also, 26 was one Hell of a pass blocker. My fear is that 24 will get pushed around and Marcus Allen will have to come in on obvious passing downs. Hope I'm wrong.

Marcus Allen is in a dog fight to make the Steelers roster.

And if CJF has to bring in 184 pound Mark Allen at RB to try and block a 235lb blitzing LB, we could in deed be in trouble.

 

[AvgPennStateFan]

Teams won't initially load the box like they did with Saquon.. until Miles starts to torch them. I think we will be run heavy until around mid-season, then when defences start to put 8 defenders in the box, it will be Trace's turn to torch them

 

[marisa45]

Extensive Experience
Miles Sanders
Juwan Johnson
DeAndre Thompkins

Relatively inexperienced
John Holland RS Jr
KJ Hamler RS Fr

I'm not seeing "complete overhaul" at skill positions.

Fair.......a fair amount of players will have a much larger role though. Will they respond.

 

[WDLion]

I like your optimism but, IMHO, replacing the lost production of Barkley, et al will not happen as quick as many expect. Even when Joe was in his prime, when that much yardage was lost, it took time to get the young players developed.

Hopefully we lose the 100+ plays for lost yardage.

 

[Howie'81]

I don't think it would be realistic to expect Milers to attract as much attention but who knows. SB was the best RB of at least a generation at PSU, if not the best ever.

I think Colin is right about one thing. Less dependence on Barkley means everyone will need to step up their game. Is it enough? Maybe.

The coaches recognize this and the narrative out of camp from the players is that you don't replace Barkley with one player. You do it with a number of players playing that much better as a team.

I think different is the word, not necessarily better, not necessarily worse. Consistent may be a more useful word than explosive when it comes to winning championships and getting that elusive CFB Championship berth.

Different is fine. Every team in every sport just about every year is different as personnel changes.

 

[marisa45]

Definitely one of the big questions this year. They did play very well against against Michigan and held their own against Ohio State until Bates got hurt. Then they looked like a big-time line in the Fiesta.

The optimistic case is that having Menet take over at center kind of unlocks the potential of this group. They can pull McGovern and just overwhelm people on the left side like they did with Mahon against against Washington. The thing is, these guys are huge and they can run.

But really the test won't be until Sept. 29. They could look absolutely dominant early season and then look really terrible playing against an entire D-line made up of NFL quality athletes.

Definitely look for some road grader type runs to that left side. I'm not a coach but to me Bates is a guard at the next level and I'd like to see those big guys with the long arms as the tackles which would get I think our most talented group on the field with Wright, Fries, Bates, McGovern and Menet.

 

[WDLion]

40+ PPG over two years - - - something that PSU has never done in 132 of college football.
Not to mention several huge scoring outputs against good teams......
49 vs USC
38 vs Wisconsin
41 vs Iowa
42 vs Michigan
38 vs Ohio State
35 vs Washington
Etc


And 39 and 34 against the Fighting Narduzzis

Jeebzus. SMH

And what does that have to do with plays for minus yardage?

 

[PearlSUJam]

Marcus Allen is in a dog fight to make the Steelers roster.

And if CJF has to bring in 184 pound Mark Allen at RB to try and block a 235lb blitzing LB, we could in deed be in trouble.

My mistake. I thought you had me blocked. Here all along you were just waiting to pick up some stupid name slip. Carry on.

 

[WDLion]

Everything, actually

Agree. Without them we would have won both the OSU and MSU games.

 

[PSUcup1]

I think losing Barkley actually helps the offense - not hurt it.

26 Was great for the big play, but it was pretty much boom or bust. Additionally, the defense really didn't care about the other 10 players on the field. Multiple times we saw teams "sell out" to stop 26.

With now more of a balanced look on offense, I think we are actually in a better place with Sanders/McSorley RPO. Additionally, our OL should be more experienced leading to better blitz IDs and stronger run blocking.

Moorhead was not a huge loss and, frankly, lost us games because of his lack of creativity from a personnel and formation variation standpoint which never forced defenses to adjust or rotate out of their base package for the week. If Rahne can be better at personnel groups and formation variations we should win every game. Hopefully, we also see 9 call more audibles from the line and not rely so heavily on look back calls.

So if you were the PSU head coach & the football gods came to you and said you could have Saquon Barkley back this year ... you’d say no????

That’s some flawed logic IMO.

Now I actually agree that the offense can and may very well be better, but it ain’t because SB isn’t there anymore.

It will be because the O line is better, Rahne and Company make adjustments and aren’t as married to the JoMo system as he was.

But yeah, I’d take Barkley over anybody currently on the team 1 billion times out of 1 billion chances

 

[MJG-90]

Everything, actually

Are you saying the minus yardage plays helped us score all those points? Or that eliminating them would help us score even more points?

 

[PSUFBFAN]

O will be as good or better:

- we will NOT miss Moorhead.

- fewer running plays will result in big losses.

- the wealth will be spread around.

- we will have better FG kicking.

- the D will actually create more opportunities for the O.

Not to worry.

If you measure "as good or better" by:

Total points and hence avg ppg
Total yardage
Total point differential (which incorporates the success of the defense, too)

I think we fall short of 2017 in all three measurements.

Barkley and Gesicki were generational talents. Hamilton was a top 10 player at his position in program history. Moorhead was simply the best offensive coordinator we ever saw at that position.

I recognize their replacements aren't slouches, but to think we will be better without those 4 isn't realistic.

 

[ColinPSU]

So if you were the PSU head coach & the football gods came to you and said you could have Saquon Barkley back this year ... you’d say no????

That’s some flawed logic IMO.

Now I actually agree that the offense can and may very well be better, but it ain’t because SB isn’t there anymore.

It will be because the O line is better, Rahne and Company make adjustments and aren’t as married to the JoMo system as he was.

But yeah, I’d take Barkley over anybody currently on the team 1 billion times out of 1 billion chances

Are you asking if I would want Barkley or would I want Barkley and only call the game from the 11 package with only 4 formation variations which allows the defense to just sit in base?

 

[MJG-90]

Yep - you got it! You cracked the code!


Don’t let me interrupt the MENSA convention.

Do you always have to be such a smug smarta$$? Or are you actually capable of having a normal conversation?

Don't let me interrupt the A-hole convention.

 

[Cosmos]

I've been watching this all off season long and there are quite a few viewpoints out there among the pundits but I'm interested in what the board thinks.

The Big Ten pundits have us ranked #3 to #5 overall as a team. Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin are being put ahead of us for the most part. A lot of those views are based on a considerably younger defense. On offense, outside of McSorley, the skill positions are almost a complete overhaul and it will take some time to find out the right mix based on current personnel.

So how long does it take the offense to gel? How big a loss is Moorhead on balance? Do we see a dominant wideout developing this year, and outside Juwan Johnson who may that be? What's the over/under on scoring offense? (2017 it was 41.1, does anyone see 30+ points a game.......35+ a game?) Are big plays sacrificed for staying on schedule on offense?

I see more of a ball control offense this year vs. the big play capability we had last year which would fundamentally change the offense. We weren't in the top 50 rushing offenses last year. I can see this team, based on the offensive line, being a top 10 rushing offense. How does that change the passing offense? Are we more of a 50/50 balanced offense and what does that mean for the team? Will it take time for McSorley to adjust to a less explosive pace of play?

One thing is for sure, if we don't have the dominant offensive line we think we have, this offense will struggle.

Good stuff below.

Offensive production will be a bit low the first few games, but not because we aren't clicking. We will win with our superior athletes. Illinois could be close. I don't like change and change is playing Friday night on the road. That said, the playbook is opened up on 29 Sept. And why not! We have the benefit of experience to bushwhack Urban Meyer. I'm talking total humiliation. Just my two cents FWIW.

 

[lyndj]

Marcus Allen is in a dog fight to make the Steelers roster.

And if CJF has to bring in 184 pound Mark Allen at RB to try and block a 235lb blitzing LB, we could in deed be in trouble.

Allen is actually a good blocker.

 

[ApexLion]

CJF just said at his presser that the team is healthy. He mentioned Shorter and Simmons as being a little dinged up, but that was it.

Howie you are on premium.

 

[jimjim47]

I think losing Barkley actually helps the offense - not hurt it.

26 Was great for the big play, but it was pretty much boom or bust. Additionally, the defense really didn't care about the other 10 players on the field. Multiple times we saw teams "sell out" to stop 26.

With now more of a balanced look on offense, I think we are actually in a better place with Sanders/McSorley RPO. Additionally, our OL should be more experienced leading to better blitz IDs and stronger run blocking.

Moorhead was not a huge loss and, frankly, lost us games because of his lack of creativity from a personnel and formation variation standpoint which never forced defenses to adjust or rotate out of their base package for the week. If Rahne can be better at personnel groups and formation variations we should win every game. Hopefully, we also see 9 call more audibles from the line and not rely so heavily on look back calls.

lol

 

[ga.lion]

I've been watching this all off season long and there are quite a few viewpoints out there among the pundits but I'm interested in what the board thinks.

The Big Ten pundits have us ranked #3 to #5 overall as a team. Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin are being put ahead of us for the most part. A lot of those views are based on a considerably younger defense. On offense, outside of McSorley, the skill positions are almost a complete overhaul and it will take some time to find out the right mix based on current personnel.

So how long does it take the offense to gel? How big a loss is Moorhead on balance? Do we see a dominant wideout developing this year, and outside Juwan Johnson who may that be? What's the over/under on scoring offense? (2017 it was 41.1, does anyone see 30+ points a game.......35+ a game?) Are big plays sacrificed for staying on schedule on offense?

I see more of a ball control offense this year vs. the big play capability we had last year which would fundamentally change the offense. We weren't in the top 50 rushing offenses last year. I can see this team, based on the offensive line, being a top 10 rushing offense. How does that change the passing offense? Are we more of a 50/50 balanced offense and what does that mean for the team? Will it take time for McSorley to adjust to a less explosive pace of play?

One thing is for sure, if we don't have the dominant offensive line we think we have, this offense will struggle.

I think a tougher schedule may knock the points per game down to 35. If McSorley stays healthy the offense will be very similar except minus the receiving yards of Barkley which will be offset by additional rushing yards primarily by McSorley who will find big holes and hold onto the ball. Big play receivers everywhere so we just have to hope for our tight ends by committee to make some of the big plays Mike G did the past 2 seasons. In the end Trace makes this offense go and he will again...Offense will take what the defense gives them.....

 

[jimjim47]

Man, we could make the playoffs or we could lose to UM, OSU, MSU and WI. And possibly others.

This could be our best OL in a decade. If it is, the inexperienced/rising talent is in the right places for a top QB and OL to light up the scoreboards. Sanders isn't Saquon (obviously) but he reminds me of Mike Hart--only faster and with less ego. Hart did great things with a solid OL a solid QB. But he didn't have Sanders' top end and his WRs weren't as threatening.

There are 5 legit contenders to win the BIG. Easier to bet we'll end up 3rd in division than in the B1G C game but who knows. Like 2016, we'll have to score A LOT to overcome the loses on D. Even with unproven talent, there's still way more talent and less holes. I suspect we'll know how good this team is before the big test v OSU.

Although it's easy to expect a few losses over the season, I can't wait to see how this one plays out. Nice being a powerhouse again. Go Nits.

" Mike Hart--only faster and with less ego. Hart did great things with a solid OL a solid QB. But he didn't have Sanders' top end and his WRs weren't as threatening."

Mike Hart's recievers as a freshman were Edwards, Avant, Breaston all future pros and Edwards won the Biletnicoff award but PSU WRs this year are more threatening.
What are you people drinking?

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

" Mike Hart--only faster and with less ego. Hart did great things with a solid OL a solid QB. But he didn't have Sanders' top end and his WRs weren't as threatening."

Mike Hart's recievers as a freshman were Edwards, Avant, Breaston all future pros and Edwards won the Biletnicoff award but PSU WRs this year are more threatening.
What are you people drinking?

Yup! Great WRs his freshman year. Wasn’t describing his collegiate career with only reference to his freshman year, when Henne was a FR and Edwards was still around. Then lost breaston. Then lost avant the next year.

By the time he was UM’s big run threat with a veteran QB and younger WRs, which is the exact situation Sanders will be in and basically the polar opposite to the one year you’re referencing, 2/3 (Harts’s jr year) or 3/3 (senior year) of those guys were gone. Sorry to inflame your diaper rash on a PENN STATE board by holding out one of your RBs as what I’d like ours to perform like—except how he ran his mouth before the consistent thread of disappointments v LITTLE BROTHER!


Good luck this season.

 

[diggerpup]

I’m curious to see how the reduced number of negative plays in 2018 offsets the tendency of opposing Ds to have most/all of their LBs follow #26 around constantly.

Barkley was always pulling LBs out of position & opening the field for other PSU skill players.

It will be interesting.

I can definitely see a more balanced attack w more focus on drives vs big plays.

 

[berklion]

I think Sanders/Allen will break a couple of good runs. If we need some passing, Trace can surely deliver.
I'd just like to see PSU control the line of scrimmage and protect the ball. But hey, I'm old

 

[tboyer]

Tend to agree, however, having said that, practices are filmed so if the new coach earns the trust of the receivers previous practices can be mimicked. The one thing that drove me nuts is the inability to sneak for half a yard. It has been argued here that there isn't time to practice QB under center. Sneak straight, left or right, come on! O'B did not have a kicker so he went on dozens of 4th and x and made most of them! We now have a decent OL, correct?

I don't think that will change. Franklin has explained this. They are a shotgun offense like a lot of college football offenses. If you're a shotgun offense you are shotgun 100% of the time. You don't risk turnovers by occasionally going under center. Ball security is about extreme consistency in the way you do things.

Yeah it means they lose the sneak, and that is definitely a cost. But if it saves you one or two turnovers a year, it's worth it. Plus there are lots of ways to get half a yard. A throw to someone as sure-handed as Juwan Johnson is going to succeed 90% of the time, which is probably pretty close to the odds of converting on a sneak.

 

[Howie'81]

Howie you are on premium.

So what? The PC is public info.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Are you asking if I would want Barkley or would I want Barkley and only call the game from the 11 package with only 4 formation variations which allows the defense to just sit in base?

Everyone would want Barkley back. It’s not loss of Barkley or any great contributor that could make PSU’s O more effective than last year’s. It’s that the OL will be able to protect a veteran stud QB allowing PSU’s O to not be so reliant on Barkley’s brilliance.
Rant warning: It’s been a year + of reading way too many posts saying we were disadvantaged by teams keying Barkley. That wasn’t a disadvantage! It was an advantage we couldn't benefit from, except situationally. Enabling a mobile QB to decide between getting it to 26 or running himself or firing it off to Godwin, Hamilton or Mike G depending on what the D gave, all while working around a patwork OL, was the brilliance of JoMo’s offense. And it was particularly brilliant when we were playing catch-up and swinging for the fences with little to lose and a gutsy QB that wasn’t yet proven MVP caliber. BUT sometimes it was limiting in a tight slugfest or with the lead against a stingy and talented D when the pressure was on, or once protecting star assets became a newly created choice.

Our O will be better because we’ll have an effective OL to operate from, not operate around. Yes, we lost some brilliant pieces. But the missing piece to greatness hasn’t been the need to lose great things. It’s been needing to get what we haven't had. Fingers crossed our OL is as expected and remains intact.

 

[Nittany_93]

Regarding negative running plays:

“Last year, we became more efficient, but we still had too many negative plays. Tackles for loss and things like that,” Franklin said. “As we get to be better on the offensive line, we’re going to eliminate some of those negative plays.

“And the other thing, we had games where the running game disappeared against upper-tier talent in our league.”

 

[ColinPSU]

Everyone would want Barkley back. It’s not loss of Barkley or any great contributor that could make PSU’s O more effective than last year’s. It’s that the OL will be able to protect a veteran stud QB allowing PSU’s O to not be so reliant on Barkley’s brilliance.
Rant warning: It’s been a year + of reading way too many posts saying we were disadvantaged by teams keying Barkley. That wasn’t a disadvantage! It was an advantage we couldn't benefit from, except situationally. Enabling a mobile QB to decide between getting it to 26 or running himself or firing it off to Godwin, Hamilton or Mike G depending on what the D gave, all while working around a patwork OL, was the brilliance of JoMo’s offense. And it was particularly brilliant when we were playing catch-up and swinging for the fences with little to lose and a gutsy QB that wasn’t yet proven MVP caliber. BUT sometimes it was limiting in a tight slugfest or with the lead against a stingy and talented D when the pressure was on, or once protecting star assets became a newly created choice.

Our O will be better because we’ll have an effective OL to operate from, not operate around. Yes, we lost some brilliant pieces. But the missing piece to greatness hasn’t been the need to lose great things. It’s been needing to get what we haven't had. Fingers crossed our OL is as expected and remains intact.

Yeah, that's the point I am making. Please list, as many as you like, the major wins you would credit to Moorhead. My point is that by running that offense we hindered ourselves as defenses found it okay to only key one player and we couldn't consistently gain the yards we needed when we really needed too, even with a once in a generation talent like 26.

 

[Howie'81]

Yeah, that's the point I am making. Please list, as many as you like, the major wins you would credit to Moorhead. My point is that by running that offense we hindered ourselves as defenses found it okay to only key one player and we couldn't consistently gain the yards we needed when we really needed too, even with a once in a generation talent like 26.

Geez, we won 20 of our last 23 with that offense and the losses were by a combined whopping 7 whole points. Ridiculous.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Yeah, that's the point I am making. Please list, as many as you like, the major wins you would credit to Moorhead. My point is that by running that offense we hindered ourselves as defenses found it okay to only key one player and we couldn't consistently gain the yards we needed when we really needed too, even with a once in a generation talent like 26.

I actually credit several big victories (including last year v. Michigan, 2016 Purdue and Indiana and the B1G C in 2016) and two near victories (Rose until we took the lead and Pitt in 2016 if Hamilton hadn’t dropped the winning pass) among those Moorhead deserves substantial credit for. That opportunistic O was lethal when swinging for the fences.

The point of my post wasn’t to disagree with you. I was more building off your thread in disagreement the stupid concept that any team could be better withou 26 than with him. I agree in the tight games/situations v deep talented Ds (end of rose, first half B1G, MSU and OSU losses) when swinging for the fences wasn't the right move or talented Ds could really press and we weren’t willing to risk Trace getting clobbered running and we needed to rely on push from our OL for that textbook 3-4 yard play, we were too easy to stop. Rose once we had the lead is an easy example.

And back to Moorhead, some of the stuff he put together for early in 2017 Michigan was beautiful.

 

[Nitt1300]

While most people talk about the "skill positions" what really makes any offense go is the line. If ours is as improved as it appears to be, the offense could be better than last year, even with the relative lack of experience at some of the "skill" positions.