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Some data comparisons between us and SMU...

D

djm_psu_alum

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Nov 30, 2016
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PSUSMU
Strength of Schedule30th57th
Strength of record5th15th
Game control20th12th
3rd D conversion15th (.478)18th (.465)
3rd D conversion D32nd (.345)16th ((.323)
Completion %6th (.695)33rd (.647)
Penalties/game23rd (4.92)128th (8.23)
Penalities/yds41st (45.92)130th (79.00)
1st downs - offense5th (308)10th (297)
1st downs - defense25th (214)73rd (242)
Fumbles lost16th (4)127th (12)
Net punting59th (39.36)101st (37.30)
INTs thrown43rd (8)53rd (9)
INTS34th (12)13th (15)
Passing Offense41st (246.5)26th (267.0)
Passing Defense16th (178.5)91st (232.7)
Passing efficiency10th (163.53)14th (155.55)
Passing eff defense28th (118.65)36th (120.96)
Rushing Offense19th (202.2)49th (176.1)
Rushing Defense9th (103.6)4th (93.4)
Red Zone Offense39th (.879)43rd (.875)
Red Zone Defense40th (.800)18th (.756)
Sacks allowed10th (.92)20th (1.15)
Sacks defense34th (2.54)11th (3.08)
TFLS allowed6th (3.62)48th (5.00)
TFLS19th (7.0)12th (7.3)
Scoring offense25th (33.6)6th (38.5)
Scoring defense8th (16.38)28th (20.85)
Turnover margin43rd (.38)62nd (.00)

SMU is a bit stronger in most categories than I expected. Bad in passing yds allowed but good in passing defense efficiency. Penalties was really the one area there was a distinct difference but then again, we were awful in penalties committed in the B10 championship game.
 
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SMU showing that they stop the run well...... that is the key to the game. Also SMU did not allow all that many sacks, but a fair amount of Tackles for Loss........ Their QB with his wheels is probably a handful to sack......defense needs to be disciplined. SMU pretty balanced as is PSU with yard in run and pass offense.
 
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PSU Soupy said:
SMU showing that they stop the run well...... that is the key to the game. Also SMU did not allow all that many sacks, but a fair amount of Tackles for Loss........ Their QB with his wheels is probably a handful to sack......defense needs to be disciplined. SMU pretty balanced as is PSU with yard in run and pass offense.
Click to expand...
You think that the level of competition had anything to do with SMU's run defense?
 
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bison13 said:
True but between that and the high rate of sacks, it means their DL is better than others in that conference and at least something the team needs to worry about
Click to expand...
Digging into the numbers reveals that they faced the below backs, with the yards from their matchup in parentheses. Each of these guys rushed for at least 500 yards, but I doubt anyone would argue that there is a household name in the bunch:

Savion Red from Nevada (30 yards)
LJ Martin from BYU (20 yards)
Isaac Brown from Louisville (117 yards)
Star Thomas from Duke (65 yards)
Desmond Reid from Pitt (49 yards)
Kye Robichaux from Boston College (90 yards)
Phil Mafah from Clemson (28 yards)

Other than that they shut down a bunch of nobodies who rushed for a few hundred yards on the season.

If rush defense is their "strength", then I think they are going to have a LONG day, because Nicholas and Kaytron are probably going to eat their lunch, and otherwise they still have to contend with Warren and Wallace.

#PSUByAMillion

P.S. I have been critical of Kaytron in the second half of the season, and I must admit that he looked GREAT on Saturday night against a defense that was allegedly good. But Singleton is still the man!
 
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Let it also be known that they avoided Miami and Clemson (until the ccg).

Again, this isn't a bad team to overlook, but one that should be considered between Illinois and Minnesota level of threat.

Take it for what it's worth.
 
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djm_psu_alum said:
PSUSMU
Strength of Schedule30th57th
Strength of record5th15th
Game control20th12th
3rd D conversion15th (.478)18th (.465)
3rd D conversion D32nd (.345)16th ((.323)
Completion %6th (.695)33rd (.647)
Penalties/game23rd (4.92)128th (8.23)
Penalities/yds41st (45.92)130th (79.00)
1st downs - offense5th (308)10th (297)
1st downs - defense25th (214)73rd (242)
Fumbles lost16th (4)127th (12)
Net punting59th (39.36)101st (37.30)
INTs thrown43rd (8)53rd (9)
INTS34th (12)13th (15)
Passing Offense41st (246.5)26th (267.0)
Passing Defense16th (178.5)91st (232.7)
Passing efficiency10th (163.53)14th (155.55)
Passing eff defense28th (118.65)36th (120.96)
Rushing Offense19th (202.2)49th (176.1)
Rushing Defense9th (103.6)4th (93.4)
Red Zone Offense39th (.879)43rd (.875)
Red Zone Defense40th (.800)18th (.756)
Sacks allowed10th (.92)20th (1.15)
Sacks defense34th (2.54)11th (3.08)
TFLS allowed6th (3.62)48th (5.00)
TFLS19th (7.0)12th (7.3)
Scoring offense25th (33.6)6th (38.5)
Scoring defense8th (16.38)28th (20.85)
Turnover margin43rd (.38)62nd (.00)

SMU is a bit stronger in most categories than I expected. Bad in passing yds allowed but good in passing defense efficiency. Penalties was really the one area there was a distinct difference but then again, we were awful in penalties committed in the B10 championship game.
Click to expand...
Fumbles lost was pretty big 12 vs our 4.

And our pass defense is much better.

Still say we faced better teams overall and that affects stats.
 
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PSU Soupy said:
SMU showing that they stop the run well...... that is the key to the game. Also SMU did not allow all that many sacks, but a fair amount of Tackles for Loss........ Their QB with his wheels is probably a handful to sack......defense needs to be disciplined. SMU pretty balanced as is PSU with yard in run and pass offense.
Click to expand...
I kind of get a Memphis Cotton Bowl vibe from this matchup. Could be a high-scoring game. They put 48 on the mighty Pitt Panthers.
 
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SMU is like a mini Oregon and speedy WRs and an elusive QB. PSU needs to get out the gates quick. It could be a shootout.
 
PSU Soupy said:
SMU showing that they stop the run well...... that is the key to the game. Also SMU did not allow all that many sacks, but a fair amount of Tackles for Loss........ Their QB with his wheels is probably a handful to sack......defense needs to be disciplined. SMU pretty balanced as is PSU with yard in run and pass offense.
Click to expand...

Their pass defense ranks 91st, that one kind of jumps out. Their secondary had a lot of busts against Clemson. It's possible their run defense ranks high because 1) teams can throw on them and/or 2) because the ACC is less of a run-oriented league than the B1G or 3) they score a lot of points and opposing teams have to throw the ball because they get behind.

So, on paper it looks like PSU will be able to throw the ball on them. But in the actual game it could be just the opposite, maybe PSU will be able to run the ball.

They do have a gigantic 320-pound DT in the middle so it will be hard running at him. But they also play 3 down linemen, like Oregon, and PSU feasted on that the other day.

They have had no trouble scoring on everybody they've played -- except for Clemson who shut them down pretty well for 3 quarters. So, probably fair to say the PSU D will have its hands full again, and hopefully the PSU O can execute well enough to control the game.
 
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mgkpsu said:
Digging into the numbers reveals that they faced the below backs, with the yards from their matchup in parentheses. Each of these guys rushed for at least 500 yards, but I doubt anyone would argue that there is a household name in the bunch:

Savion Red from Nevada (30 yards)
LJ Martin from BYU (20 yards)
Isaac Brown from Louisville (117 yards)
Star Thomas from Duke (65 yards)
Desmond Reid from Pitt (49 yards)
Kye Robichaux from Boston College (90 yards)
Phil Mafah from Clemson (28 yards)

Other than that they shut down a bunch of nobodies who rushed for a few hundred yards on the season.

If rush defense is their "strength", then I think they are going to have a LONG day, because Nicholas and Kaytron are probably going to eat their lunch, and otherwise they still have to contend with Warren and Wallace.

#PSUByAMillion

P.S. I have been critical of Kaytron in the second half of the season, and I must admit that he looked GREAT on Saturday night against a defense that was allegedly good. But Singleton is still the man!
Click to expand...

Clemson ran for only 54 yards against them. But Clemson's offensive line is the Achilles heel of the team this year; PSU should do better. Also, Clemson was having so much success throwing the ball, especially in the 1st half, they didn't bother running much.

Re sacks, as we know an awful lot of PSU's sacks came against opponents in the 2nd half when PSU had a pretty good lead and the other team was forced to throw every down. That could be true for SMU too, because their potent offense scores a lot. It could be less of an indication of their pass rush than it looks.

Oregon had a great pass rush statistically but the PSU O-line mostly kept those guys away from Allar -- they got their sack when PSU was behind and had to throw.
 
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tboyer said:
They have had no trouble scoring on everybody they've played
Click to expand...

29 vs Nevada
15 vs BYU
33 vs UVA
28 vs Duke (with OT)

The biggest problem with their schedule is they didn't play any top ranked defenses. However, with 2 weeks to prepare they are going to hone in on what we are bad at and try to exploit it.

Considering how we moved the ball vs Oregon, I now have no concerns about this game whatsoever. It may look like many others this year and be close at the half, but I think we bruise them up with our depth and pull away in the 2nd half.
 
This is a cakewalk. We're going to run these guys by 21, at least.

The only teams they played with a pulse, they lost to ... and those teams barely had a pulse (BYU and Clemson - neither one beat anyone, Clemson was boatraced by Georgia and BYU lost to Kansas).

Anything positive they have is built on a house of cards.

SMU v. Washington would be a nice matchup.
 
lazydave841 said:
29 vs Nevada
15 vs BYU
33 vs UVA
28 vs Duke (with OT)

The biggest problem with their schedule is they didn't play any top ranked defenses. However, with 2 weeks to prepare they are going to hone in on what we are bad at and try to exploit it.

Considering how we moved the ball vs Oregon, I now have no concerns about this game whatsoever. It may look like many others this year and be close at the half, but I think we bruise them up with our depth and pull away in the 2nd half.
Click to expand...
Franklin needs to talk to Manny about SMU. Manny's Duke defense did a good job vs SMU.
 
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lazydave841 said:
29 vs Nevada
15 vs BYU
33 vs UVA
28 vs Duke (with OT)

The biggest problem with their schedule is they didn't play any top ranked defenses. However, with 2 weeks to prepare they are going to hone in on what we are bad at and try to exploit it.

Considering how we moved the ball vs Oregon, I now have no concerns about this game whatsoever. It may look like many others this year and be close at the half, but I think we bruise them up with our depth and pull away in the 2nd half.
Click to expand...
With all deference to SMU, if we play with the same attitude we saw Saturday going forward we have a realistic shot at the whole thing.
 
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tboyer said:
Their pass defense ranks 91st, that one kind of jumps out. Their secondary had a lot of busts against Clemson. It's possible their run defense ranks high because 1) teams can throw on them and/or 2) because the ACC is less of a run-oriented league than the B1G or 3) they score a lot of points and opposing teams have to throw the ball because they get behind.

So, on paper it looks like PSU will be able to throw the ball on them. But in the actual game it could be just the opposite, maybe PSU will be able to run the ball.

They do have a gigantic 320-pound DT in the middle so it will be hard running at him. But they also play 3 down linemen, like Oregon, and PSU feasted on that the other day.

They have had no trouble scoring on everybody they've played -- except for Clemson who shut them down pretty well for 3 quarters. So, probably fair to say the PSU D will have its hands full again, and hopefully the PSU O can execute well enough to control the game.
Click to expand...
True about passing defense being 91st but that's based on yardage given up. If you look at passing efficiency defense, they are 36th. It could be they got up big on teams who then had to throw to get back in it and SMU was willing to give up some late game passing. I've watched very little SMU this year but given the disparity of pass defense yards and pass defense efficiency, it seems like that might be the case.
 
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djm_psu_alum said:
True about passing defense being 91st but that's based on yardage given up. If you look at passing efficiency defense, they are 36th. It could be they got up big on teams who then had to throw to get back in it and SMU was willing to give up some late game passing. I've watched very little SMU this year but given the disparity of pass defense yards and pass defense efficiency, it seems like that might be the case.
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All that I know is that a BC team that I believe was playing with their second string qb put up 28 points against them at SMU, and they struggled to score very many points at Duke.
 
heckmans said:
I'm very confused at the point you're trying to make.
Click to expand...
I think that the only meaningful statistics are those that come against teams with winning records. The rest should be jettisoned when it comes time to compare teams. What was PSU's average output against decent teams? The same question applies to SMU.
 
bcspsu said:
All that I know is that a BC team that I believe was playing with their second string qb put up 28 points against them at SMU, and they struggled to score very many points at Duke.
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That's all fair. I was just pointing out that yards given up and defensive efficiency can't be at odds given the context.

The inverse often happens in the NFL where a top-ranked defense gives up very little points but is in the middle of the league in yards given up.

SMU gave up 415 yards passing to TCU when TCU was down early and had to pass to get back into the game. Louisville passed for 329 yds. They also went down by 11 in the 2nd half. Pitt fell down early and threw for 350 yds. I noticed in several of the box scores, their opponents got their share of passing yards (like those listed above) but the completion % for most of their opponents was at or below 50% --hence the high ranking defensive efficiency.
 
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djm_psu_alum said:
That's all fair. I was just pointing out that yards given up and defensive efficiency can't be at odds given the context.

The inverse often happens in the NFL where a top-ranked defense gives up very little points but is in the middle of the league in yards given up.

SMU gave up 415 yards passing to TCU when TCU was down early and had to pass to get back into the game. Louisville passed for 329 yds. They also went down by 11 in the 2nd half. Pitt fell down early and threw for 350 yds. I noticed in several of the box scores, their opponents got their share of passing yards (like those listed above) but the completion % for most of their opponents was at or below 50% --hence the high ranking defensive efficiency.
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Yep, like when Ki-Jana Carter and that offense would score every 3-4 plays. That defense was better than given credit but it was on the field a lot since the offense always scored so quickly. It’s stats didn’t reflect how good it was.
 
19333lion said:
I think that the only meaningful statistics are those that come against teams with winning records. The rest should be jettisoned when it comes time to compare teams. What was PSU's average output against decent teams? The same question applies to SMU.
Click to expand...
Thank you. I interpreted your first note as discounting PSU's stats due to Kent St and Purdue, while not similarly evaluating SMU's schedule that included Stanford, FSU, and HCU(FCS)

The reality is that there are so many things that make these comparisons iffy, at best. Beginning of year vs end of year, injuries, match-ups, etc

At the end of the day, it's fair to say that SMU, on average, played weaker teams, and on paper, PSU has more talent. That leaves coaching as an X-factor. We add in a team from Texas playing in Central PA in late December. How does that ultimately play out? On paper, PSU has the upper hand. We'll see how it plays out.
 
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