i watched and had the same impression. I thought NW was gutty but just didn't have the horses. Wiscy is Illinois, with a little better running game and a worse defense from what I saw. Dangerous at home? YES. But if we play our game we should win.
What to expect from Wisconsin
- Thread starter tboyer
- Start date
I think we match up better with Wisconsin than we did vs USC because I think we're more susceptible to the pass than to the run. Miller Moss is averaging 279 yds per game. Braedyn Locke is only averaging 177 yds per game.I have the same feeling about this game as I did about USC: on paper we match up well and should handle them, but some intangibles could make it challenging.
Vegas makes us a 6.5-point favorite (versus 3.5 over USC). The FPI winning percentage is 70 (versus 48 against USC). If we do in fact bring our A game, we win. Anything less and we may find ourselves in a dogfight.
USC ended up being a 5-drink game for me, the 5th being celebratory. I'm hoping this one stays at 2-3...
That said we were lucky to get the win vs USC. The score was 20-6 at half but it likely would have been 24-6 if not for a USC block below the waist penalty. Then we escaped two close PI calls late in the game. Then of course USC missed the FG in OT. PSU is going to have to play a cleaner game at Wisconsin.
They've got a veteran OL that has played well, a running back who's averaged, like, 130 or so yards the last 3 games, and they're riding a 3-game winning streak that's seen them outscore their (mediocre) opponents by, I don't know, 120-15 or something like that.
The back-up QB has improved some but is still prone to interceptions. They have to establish their running game. The back-up QB cannot carry them to a win. Therefore, it seems like our play would be to load up against their run and force their back-up to make throws.
The bottom line here is their talent level is significantly below ours across every position. Maybe an exception here and there like their best LB is probably equal to or better than Deluca but you get the point.
I am less concerned about this game than I was USC. The FPI tells the story, 48% to win at USC, 70% to win at Wisky. I think the key reason for the difference is Wisconsin does not have the skill athletes that USC has. Moss and their receivers plus Marks are a tough out. Wisconsin has Locke who remember is their 2nd string QB, not a big threat to us. Their RB is good but we can handle that. Don't think their WRs or TE pose a threat.
On offense our skill guys will do damage. Ii fully expect Allar to have a good game. Moss ate up Wisky in the 2nd half and Allar should also have success vs their D. I hope Singleton is full strength. And of course they will have no answer for Warren. I hope Fleming shows up.
I expect us to cover the 6.5 point spread.
Good analysis. Makes sense and tracks with my earlier comment that if we play our A game, it's hard to imagine us losing.
But I'm nervous anyway. I've seen stranger things happen this year than Wisconsin giving us a competitive game in Madison.
For the love of God, how can it be a trap game when you've had a bye week and are playing a hot team in their own stadium at night; that's such a trite phrase that's used very often with PSU? If it truly becomes a trap game, then shame on PSU. The true definition of a trap game would've been the UCLA game between the Illinois and USC games.
Don’t kill the messenger. Just repeating what Klatt said, although he did think Penn State would win but not cover.
What I hope happens:
- PSU will not have to play Singleton & Allen the entire game. Get Q. Martin some meaningful RB reps.
- Give Speca & Robinson meaningful reps @ LBer in place of #43.
-Julian Fleming breaks out for a TD
- Wallace III reappearance as a WR
- DL does not need blitzes to gain sacks of Wisky QB
- Last but certainly not least, an injury free game for both teams
Would be nice to put it altogether from the start and play a complete game, something we have not really done all year.
I’m certainly not getting on you, as I know that you meant Klatt said that, and I respect him as an analyst. However, considering that we haven’t been a dominant team despite the record, I just don’t believe that PSU will be dumb enough to overlook this game.
I would hope not. This team has looked good at times in all phases yet they have not really put it all together for a full game. Yes they are 6-0, but have not played like an elite team. They better not underestimate any team or be looking ahead to any game.
Badger fan stopping in. The last 3 weeks were confidence builders, so the fanbase mood is up. It's a much taller task against you guys, of course.
Locke is the QB - he came in when Van Dyke went down for the year vs. Alabama. He was in a tight battle for the starting job in camp, though, and he played a few games last year - so not completely starting from scratch. I'd call him serviceable.
Tawee Walker is the bellcow at RB. They use a couple other guys a fair amount, but he's the one to focus on.
The WRs are better as a group than you're probably used to seeing at UW. That's a byproduct of recruiting to the offensive scheme. Pauling is probably top of the scouting report and targeted the most, but they spread it around a lot (not sure he's healthy). One of the second stringers is Trech Kekahuna. I mention him because a) it's fun to say, and b) he's one of those guys they try to get the ball in open space because he's fast and elusive. He's also undersized, though. Vinny Anthony is another fast guy they throw deep to.
TEs are not a strength. The OL was expected to be a little shaky, but they seem to have gotten better (at least against less stiff competition)
On defense, no question that the DL is subpar, and that was a concern coming into the season. Lack of pass rush puts a lot of strain on the secondary. The LBs are asked to do a lot in the run game. None of these last three teams could pass the ball and had open guys that the QB missed as well as some drops. Less likely against PSU.
I don't think the Badgers will prevail, but hope springs eternal. Let me know if you have questions.
Some say that PSU has superior talent and the only way we lose is if we screw up. That the safest bet is a run oriented conservative attack.
I looked at the USC vs Wisconsin stats:
1st downs 29-13
Passing yds 308-180
Rushing yds 161-106
Total yds 469-286
Possession 40-20
Turnovers 3-2
Score 38-21
I think PSU & USC have comparable talent. USC is probably a better passing team while PSU is probably a better running team. I don't think PSU has to pass for 300 yds but I do think they'll have to pass for 230. I don't think we're strong enough up front to simply run between the tackles like we did against Illinois.
I think our defense has some holes but it's better than USC's defense. I'm also considering that Wisconsin is at hope at night. Here's my prediction (or hope) for PSU vs Wisconsin stats:
1st downs 22-15
Passing yds 230-180
Rushing yds 160-100
Total yds 390-280
Possession 35-25
Turnovers 1-2
Score 24-17
I looked at the USC vs Wisconsin stats:
1st downs 29-13
Passing yds 308-180
Rushing yds 161-106
Total yds 469-286
Possession 40-20
Turnovers 3-2
Score 38-21
I think PSU & USC have comparable talent. USC is probably a better passing team while PSU is probably a better running team. I don't think PSU has to pass for 300 yds but I do think they'll have to pass for 230. I don't think we're strong enough up front to simply run between the tackles like we did against Illinois.
I think our defense has some holes but it's better than USC's defense. I'm also considering that Wisconsin is at hope at night. Here's my prediction (or hope) for PSU vs Wisconsin stats:
1st downs 22-15
Passing yds 230-180
Rushing yds 160-100
Total yds 390-280
Possession 35-25
Turnovers 1-2
Score 24-17
I don't expect to see Martin.
Our starting LBs will need a rest so I expect Robinson to get some PT
It would be nice to see Fleming with at least 4 catches, same for Wallace
PSU will blitz if we need to or not. It's what they do.
He's a player whom I'd like to see, but I don't know if he's played at all since the second half of Kent State.
If Singleton is full strength then this game is not close. Way too many Penn State weapons on offense.
If he is not that effective and we have to lean on Allen then Wisky can stop that. Then it goes to Allar and the playcalling being more important.
Only way see Wisky winning or making it close is....
-Singleton does not do much
-Allar has below average game to poor game
-No WRs step up and do much of anything
-Turnovers
-Bad FG kicking (ie. we miss them all)
-Defense asleep for first half
Highly doubt much of that happens.
If Wisky can stop Allen, they very likely stop Singleton. The primary difference between our backs is 30+ yard run potential.
What I'm curious about is the game plan. What way does AK attack this week? We've just seen Allar unleashed vs USC. Do AK put the genie back in the bottle and come out with the run first, pass when necessary schtik (Allar threw between 17 and 24 passes in our first 5 games; 43 vs USC)? Or do we come out throwing early and more aggressive (25+ before the 4th quarter)?
Their defensive stats indicate that they're not good against the run but very good against the pass. However, they've played the three worst offenses in the Big 10 in their last three games, so those stats probably are skewed because of that.
I think it only looks that way because we mostly run them the same, for some odd reason. I think Singleton can get to space and hit the edge much better than Allen ... we just tend to run Singleton up the middle, just like Allen. I'd like to see some stack multiple TE formations and a good ole fashioned toss sweep to Singleton. Let him cook.
