What to expect from Wisconsin

[Obliviax]

I watched the Wisky-NW game (I know, that's 30 minutes I'll never get back) and I just didn't see much from either team. NW just has nothing going on. They are small and slow.

Wisky is bigger and controlled LOS; the game was only close for as long as it was because Wisky QB does not have a great arm, throws into coverage and gets picked accordingly.

Anyway from that game I didn't see anything for PSU to worry about. But .... you go on the road in the B10 with a high ranking, and stuff happens. Power goes out to your high-rise hotel and players miss their morning routine climbing steps down from the 25th floor and they're eating cold pizza for breakfast and suddenly it's halfway through the first quarter and they're down 21-0...

i watched and had the same impression. I thought NW was gutty but just didn't have the horses. Wiscy is Illinois, with a little better running game and a worse defense from what I saw. Dangerous at home? YES. But if we play our game we should win.

 

[bdgan]

I have the same feeling about this game as I did about USC: on paper we match up well and should handle them, but some intangibles could make it challenging.

Vegas makes us a 6.5-point favorite (versus 3.5 over USC). The FPI winning percentage is 70 (versus 48 against USC). If we do in fact bring our A game, we win. Anything less and we may find ourselves in a dogfight.

USC ended up being a 5-drink game for me, the 5th being celebratory. I'm hoping this one stays at 2-3...

I think we match up better with Wisconsin than we did vs USC because I think we're more susceptible to the pass than to the run. Miller Moss is averaging 279 yds per game. Braedyn Locke is only averaging 177 yds per game.

That said we were lucky to get the win vs USC. The score was 20-6 at half but it likely would have been 24-6 if not for a USC block below the waist penalty. Then we escaped two close PI calls late in the game. Then of course USC missed the FG in OT. PSU is going to have to play a cleaner game at Wisconsin.

 

[Jerry]

I watched the Wisky-NW game (I know, that's 30 minutes I'll never get back) and I just didn't see much from either team. NW just has nothing going on. They are small and slow.

Wisky is bigger and controlled LOS; the game was only close for as long as it was because Wisky QB does not have a great arm, throws into coverage and gets picked accordingly.

Anyway from that game I didn't see anything for PSU to worry about. But .... you go on the road in the B10 with a high ranking, and stuff happens. Power goes out to your high-rise hotel and players miss their morning routine climbing steps down from the 25th floor and they're eating cold pizza for breakfast and suddenly it's halfway through the first quarter and they're down 21-0...

They've got a veteran OL that has played well, a running back who's averaged, like, 130 or so yards the last 3 games, and they're riding a 3-game winning streak that's seen them outscore their (mediocre) opponents by, I don't know, 120-15 or something like that.

The back-up QB has improved some but is still prone to interceptions. They have to establish their running game. The back-up QB cannot carry them to a win. Therefore, it seems like our play would be to load up against their run and force their back-up to make throws.

 

[ryoder1]

They've got a veteran OL that has played well, a running back who's averaged, like, 130 or so yards the last 3 games, and they're riding a 3-game winning streak that's seen them outscore their (mediocre) opponents by, I don't know, 120-15 or something like that.

The back-up QB has improved some but is still prone to interceptions. They have to establish their running game. The back-up QB cannot carry them to a win. Therefore, it seems like our play would be to load up against their run and force their back-up to make throws.

The bottom line here is their talent level is significantly below ours across every position. Maybe an exception here and there like their best LB is probably equal to or better than Deluca but you get the point.

I am less concerned about this game than I was USC. The FPI tells the story, 48% to win at USC, 70% to win at Wisky. I think the key reason for the difference is Wisconsin does not have the skill athletes that USC has. Moss and their receivers plus Marks are a tough out. Wisconsin has Locke who remember is their 2nd string QB, not a big threat to us. Their RB is good but we can handle that. Don't think their WRs or TE pose a threat.

On offense our skill guys will do damage. Ii fully expect Allar to have a good game. Moss ate up Wisky in the 2nd half and Allar should also have success vs their D. I hope Singleton is full strength. And of course they will have no answer for Warren. I hope Fleming shows up.

I expect us to cover the 6.5 point spread.

 

[Jerry]

The bottom line here is their talent level is significantly below ours across every position. Maybe an exception here and there like their best LB is probably equal to or better than Deluca but you get the point.

I am less concerned about this game than I was USC. The FPI tells the story, 48% to win at USC, 70% to win at Wisky. I think the key reason for the difference is Wisconsin does not have the skill athletes that USC has. Moss and their receivers plus Marks are a tough out. Wisconsin has Locke who remember is their 2nd string QB, not a big threat to us. Their RB is good but we can handle that. Don't think their WRs or TE pose a threat.

On offense our skill guys will do damage. Ii fully expect Allar to have a good game. Moss ate up Wisky in the 2nd half and Allar should also have success vs their D. I hope Singleton is full strength. And of course they will have no answer for Warren. I hope Fleming shows up.

I expect us to cover the 6.5 point spread.

Good analysis. Makes sense and tracks with my earlier comment that if we play our A game, it's hard to imagine us losing.

But I'm nervous anyway. I've seen stranger things happen this year than Wisconsin giving us a competitive game in Madison.