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Stock Market Update (Where's Eduardo?)

At the same time tariffs went up Hoover/Congress also increased income taxes from 25% to over 60%. Really killed the consumer. Which killed retailers. Which killed producers.

And the economy was recovering by 1936 but FDR passed a lot of other taxes and restrictions that drove the economy back down.
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There’s no doubt that Roosevelt changed the character of the American government—for the worse. Many of the reforms of the 1930s remain embedded in policy today: acreage allotments, price supports and marketing controls in agriculture, extensive regulation of private securities, federal intrusion into union-management relations, government lending and insurance activities, the minimum wage, national unemployment insurance, Social Security and welfare payments, production and sale of electrical power by the federal government, fiat money—the list goes on.

Roosevelt’s revolution began with his inaugural address, which left no doubt about his intentions to seize the moment and harness it to his purposes. Best remembered for its patently false line that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” it also called for extraordinary emergency governmental powers…..

…..
Invoking the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, Roosevelt declared that “all banking transactions shall be suspended.” Banks were permitted to reopen only after case-by-case inspection and approval by the government, a procedure that dragged on for months. This action heightened the public’s sense of crisis and allowed him to ignore traditional restraints on the power of the central government.

In their understanding of the Depression, Roosevelt and his economic advisors had cause and effect reversed. They did not recognize that prices had fallen because of the Depression. They believed that the Depression prevailed because prices had fallen. The obvious remedy, then, was to raise prices, which they decided to do by creating artificial shortages. Hence arose a collection of crackpot policies designed to cure the Depression by cutting back on production. The scheme was so patently self-defeating that it’s hard to believe anyone seriously believed it would work



 
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Don't look now but Tesla stock is back to $342. It was just over a month ago that Tim Walz was boasting about how Tesla was at $225 and falling.

I don't know enough about Tesla but I struggle to buy a company trading at 196 x earnings. EV tax credits and mandates are going away and I don't think many Musk haters are going to be lining up to buy one. Investors must think Tesla is going to make a killing in AI/Robotics.
I bought TSLA about a year ago at $170 because of AI and robotics, as integrated into Tesla’s self-driving platform. The prospects of TSLA’s automobile business were not a huge factor for me.

My position in TSLA is about 1% of my portfolio. But there is a chance that TSLA becomes multiples more valuable than its current position. I suppose it is a high-risk position to take, but if you believe in the future of AI/robotics/self-driving tech, TSLA seems like the best option for innovation in those areas to me.
 
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I bought TSLA about a year ago at $170 because of AI and robotics, as integrated into Tesla’s self-driving platform. The prospects of TSLA’s automobile business were not a huge factor for me.

My position in TSLA is about 1% of my portfolio. But there is a chance that TSLA becomes multiples more valuable than its current position. I suppose it is a high-risk position to take, but if you believe in the future of AI/robotics/self-driving tech, TSLA seems like the best option for innovation in those areas to me.
took a different route with Tesla, went with options.
 
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I bought TSLA about a year ago at $170 because of AI and robotics, as integrated into Tesla’s self-driving platform. The prospects of TSLA’s automobile business were not a huge factor for me.

My position in TSLA is about 1% of my portfolio. But there is a chance that TSLA becomes multiples more valuable than its current position. I suppose it is a high-risk position to take, but if you believe in the future of AI/robotics/self-driving tech, TSLA seems like the best option for innovation in those areas to me.
Closed at over $347 today. Nice pick.

Timmy Walz is crying! 😢
 
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There’s no doubt that Roosevelt changed the character of the American government—for the worse. Many of the reforms of the 1930s remain embedded in policy today: acreage allotments, price supports and marketing controls in agriculture, extensive regulation of private securities, federal intrusion into union-management relations, government lending and insurance activities, the minimum wage, national unemployment insurance, Social Security and welfare payments, production and sale of electrical power by the federal government, fiat money—the list goes on.

Roosevelt’s revolution began with his inaugural address, which left no doubt about his intentions to seize the moment and harness it to his purposes. Best remembered for its patently false line that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” it also called for extraordinary emergency governmental powers…..

…..
Invoking the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, Roosevelt declared that “all banking transactions shall be suspended.” Banks were permitted to reopen only after case-by-case inspection and approval by the government, a procedure that dragged on for months. This action heightened the public’s sense of crisis and allowed him to ignore traditional restraints on the power of the central government.

In their understanding of the Depression, Roosevelt and his economic advisors had cause and effect reversed. They did not recognize that prices had fallen because of the Depression. They believed that the Depression prevailed because prices had fallen. The obvious remedy, then, was to raise prices, which they decided to do by creating artificial shortages. Hence arose a collection of crackpot policies designed to cure the Depression by cutting back on production. The scheme was so patently self-defeating that it’s hard to believe anyone seriously believed it would work



I don't have a problem with Social Security. The way I look at it is we have two choices. One is to say tough shyt to people who failed to save for retirement. The other is to force them to save for retirement. I prefer the latter.

The problem with SS is that the government immediately started paying benefits to people who never contributed which effectively turned it into a ponzi scheme. Then the added benefits like marital & disability with no way to pay for it. Now we're in a world of trouble.
 
I don't have a problem with Social Security. The way I look at it is we have two choices. One is to say tough shyt to people who failed to save for retirement. The other is to force them to save for retirement. I prefer the latter.

The problem with SS is that the government immediately started paying benefits to people who never contributed which effectively turned it into a ponzi scheme. Then the added benefits like marital & disability with no way to pay for it. Now we're in a world of trouble.
SS was a small part of what was posted.
 
Welp, it turns out I left some on on bone, but I'm okay with being mostly in cash and sitting this out. I have little confidence in Trump's fiscal policy measures going forward. Speaking with many of my friends, it's a pretty common theme.
 
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Ever hear of the parade of the Grand Army of the Republic in 1865? Was that ok?
 
I don't have a problem with Social Security. The way I look at it is we have two choices. One is to say tough shyt to people who failed to save for retirement. The other is to force them to save for retirement. I prefer the latter.

The problem with SS is that the government immediately started paying benefits to people who never contributed which effectively turned it into a ponzi scheme. Then the added benefits like marital & disability with no way to pay for it. Now we're in a world of trouble.
it's easier to give benefits than take them away...both parties
 
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China changed absolutely nothing about their approach to us. Yet Americans end up paying higher taxes. Whooopeeee!! What an outcome…
Most of the free world has complained about China's unfair trade practices. Foreign companies can't own land in China, forced labor, stolen intellectual property, cyber theft, dumping their own products, etc. It seems you're good with that.

Regardless you're dodging the question again. How it capitulating when Trump has a 30% tariff on China and has eliminated the exemption for low priced goods?
 
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China changed absolutely nothing about their approach to us. Yet Americans end up paying higher taxes. Whooopeeee!! What an outcome…
Most of the free world has complained about China's unfair trade practices. Foreign companies can't own land in China, forced labor, stolen intellectual property, cyber theft, dumping their own products, etc. It seems you're good with that.

We've been through this several times. Tariffs can definitely cause disruption and price increases. They can also generate tax revenues and encourage businesses & consumers to move to other less threatening suppliers not located in China.

Regardless you're dodging the question again. How is it capitulating when Trump has a 30% tariff on China and has eliminated the exemption for low priced goods?
 
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it's easier to give benefits than take them away...both parties
100%. That's why it's so difficult to stop government funding for NPR & PBS even though the original reason for those things no longer exists. The government expanded benefits because of Covid and now they're permanent. Small rural post offices can't be closed. And yes it's both parties. Both parties get campaign contributions from businesses/organizations who want government sponsorship.

Also consider that every organization wants to grow. I know this sounds cynical but how many times have you seen a charity advertise that "The need has never been greater"? When have organizations that support education, healthcare, agriculture, foreign aid, etc ever said "We have all the money we need"? Funding for these things grows from 100 to 200 to 300 then somebody proposes cutting it back to 250 only to get accused of not caring about kids, poor, seniors, etc.

It's almost impossible to get elected by promising to take things away. That's why we need a balanced budget amendment.
 
100%. That's why it's so difficult to stop government funding for NPR & PBS even though the original reason for those things no longer exists. The government expanded benefits because of Covid and now they're permanent. Small rural post offices can't be closed. And yes it's both parties. Both parties get campaign contributions from businesses/organizations who want government sponsorship.

Also consider that every organization wants to grow. I know this sounds cynical but how many times have you seen a charity advertise that "The need has never been greater"? When have organizations that support education, healthcare, agriculture, foreign aid, etc ever said "We have all the money we need"? Funding for these things grows from 100 to 200 to 300 then somebody proposes cutting it back to 250 only to get accused of not caring about kids, poor, seniors, etc.

It's almost impossible to get elected by promising to take things away. That's why we need a balanced budget amendment.
Ronald Reagan: “If you ever wondered what eternal life looks like…..just look at any federal program!
 
Most of the free world has complained about China's unfair trade practices. Foreign companies can't own land in China, forced labor, stolen intellectual property, cyber theft, dumping their own products, etc. It seems you're good with that.

We've been through this several times. Tariffs can definitely cause disruption and price increases. They can also generate tax revenues and encourage businesses & consumers to move to other less threatening suppliers not located in China.

Regardless you're dodging the question again. How is it capitulating when Trump has a 30% tariff on China and has eliminated the exemption for low priced goods?
Most of the free world has complained about China's unfair trade practices. Foreign companies can't own land in China, forced labor, stolen intellectual property, cyber theft, dumping their own products, etc. It seems you're good with that.

This part can not be overlooked. I would add not following the accounting rules to being traded on US markets. The above is equally important as the tariff numbers. This part does not show on your quarterly statement. It is massive


The biggest problem with the 43 pages of chatter is..... NO one knows what was saidin the negotiations.... a 2 minute sound bite. There may be good reason for backing off the tariff and getting to the table. The haters say he caved and the non haters rationalize it. Everyone here thinks they are master negotiators because they managed to get an extra zucchini squash at the Saturday Farmers market or they have big dick energy negotiating with the local car dealer. It is much more complicated. Added to this the thought of negotiating this out in 3 days and be done. The deals take time. Each country has different exports and they want to make sure they get a good deal... just like the US. The criticism is so off the wall. It takes time and NO ONE knows what will happen in the next couple months.

One thing it has shown me is 70% of the people in the market should GTFO. The market dropped 16% or whatever and people immediately called recession, depression, leaving the country. The cash out leave the country crowd is clueless. Go live in another country for 5 years.....loop back and we will talk about your experience (another topic). In 10 days, the market had recovered. That blip will not even show up on your June statement. It had zero effect on 99% of the people in the market and they had kittens. Unless you cashed out during those 10 days of drop......in a long term strategy....essentially no effect. If you have this mentality over the market going down for a day or week----save yourself and get out. Peoples response to a drop is crazy. Revisit this when PSU plays OSU and see where the market is... Many people look like fools in their response- even the experts have done a massive backwalk showing they dont know much more than the average investor.

Give all this a chance to happen... all of it. Both sides... It is a PSU football game where PSU plays bad on a number of plays in the first half and I scream to fire Franklin..... then they settle down make a good drive at the end of the half and we are down by 10... We come back and score 28 in the second half and it is beers for everyone.

The media does not know what will happen either. They spin it to their political lean. They have NO clue just like everyone else. Getting fired up over anything they say is fools gold. There will be lots of plays in this tariff game over the next 6 months...
 
China changed absolutely nothing about their approach to us. Yet Americans end up paying higher taxes. Whooopeeee!! What an outcome…
I'm not sure anyone other than those who negotiated the arrangement really know the details of what was agreed.
Just last week the concern and complaint was that the 145% tariff was bad. So they must have heard you and lowered it. Good job roar!
Americans paying higher taxes??? Didn't all the Democrats just vote against the new tax bill? Not to point out the obvious, but unless the bill passed all of us are going to see higher taxes. NOT GOOD
 
I'm not sure anyone other than those who negotiated the arrangement really know the details of what was agreed.
Just last week the concern and complaint was that the 145% tariff was bad. So they must have heard you and lowered it. Good job roar!
Americans paying higher taxes??? Didn't all the Democrats just vote against the new tax bill? Not to point out the obvious, but unless the bill passed all of us are going to see higher taxes. NOT GOOD
They don't, he's just talking out his a$$.
 
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