Jones says he would short the long end of the treasury market. I would agree as I see uncontrolled inflation as the likely scenario (and the recent rate cut as a political measure in line with what the Fed has been doing since the election of the current administration). But ... the interviewer doesn't allow the conversation to go into how he would stay ahead of that inflation (only by shorting?).
In the 1970s the stock market on average stayed flat (and dramatically declined on an adjusted basis). From the late 60s until Reagan cut taxes you would have been better off with your money in a money market. Is that why there is 7 trillion in MMs today?
Is this why we have the current market bubble? No one trusts bonds while most want their capital "working?" Or is it because people also believe that artificial intelligence is going to provide productivity growth that surpasses the burden of debt? Because if it doesn't then this market, on an inflation-adjusted basis, crashes like it did in the 1970s.
Jamie Dimon has said that he believes that we are already into WW3, which I also believe is true. What does that sort of escalation do to the stock market? How do you increase spending (for a world war) when spending is already out of control? Do you buy defense, material, and energy stocks while shorting the rest?
I do believe that the Fed will soon be buying the longer dated treasuries, so I'm not sure that shorting them is a good idea. As we know, Fed intervention would be inflationary as it increases the money supply. In fact I can't see anything that has happened over the last few years, nor anything proposed, as being anything but inflationary. The 2% target is a joke. They'll have to cook the books or shut down the economy, which would not be good for the stock market.
In the 1970s the stock market on average stayed flat (and dramatically declined on an adjusted basis). From the late 60s until Reagan cut taxes you would have been better off with your money in a money market. Is that why there is 7 trillion in MMs today?
Is this why we have the current market bubble? No one trusts bonds while most want their capital "working?" Or is it because people also believe that artificial intelligence is going to provide productivity growth that surpasses the burden of debt? Because if it doesn't then this market, on an inflation-adjusted basis, crashes like it did in the 1970s.
Jamie Dimon has said that he believes that we are already into WW3, which I also believe is true. What does that sort of escalation do to the stock market? How do you increase spending (for a world war) when spending is already out of control? Do you buy defense, material, and energy stocks while shorting the rest?
I do believe that the Fed will soon be buying the longer dated treasuries, so I'm not sure that shorting them is a good idea. As we know, Fed intervention would be inflationary as it increases the money supply. In fact I can't see anything that has happened over the last few years, nor anything proposed, as being anything but inflationary. The 2% target is a joke. They'll have to cook the books or shut down the economy, which would not be good for the stock market.
