Ten Thousan Marbles Thread watched More to ignore, Book 100....

Ten Thousan Marbles

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Ten Thousan Marbles

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UPDATE: Saturday, Oct 15, 2022 · 11:06:19 AM EDT · kos
Rain has generally rendered NASA FIRMS fire imagery unusable the last several weeks. But we’ve got imagery today, and the fighting looks to have moved south of Mylove, in Kherson oblast.

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That cluster of fires south of Mylove are in a (dirt?) road intersection that loops around that river-inlet-estuary body of water. Russia might be laying down a wall of artillery fire to try and prevent Ukranian advances. Alternative theory: That is a staging ground for Russian equipment supporting the Mylove defense, and was hit by Ukranian artillery.

There are no buildings or structures there, so that fire is
someone’s equipment burning.
 

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Ukraine Update: Putin suffers yet another diplomatic humiliation; fog of war envelopes Kherson

kos

Once upon a time, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin struck fear in the heart of his neighbors, and he loved to exert dominance by being always late to meetings. Nowadays, he gets regularly stood up and lectured by his neighbors. The latest was particularly direct and humiliating, from Tajikistan dictator Emomali Rahmon (who was late to a meeting with Putin at a different gathering last month).



Here’s a loose translation of the remarks in text:

We have 2 million ethnic Russians. Russian language is a required study from kindergarten to university. But we don’t have Russian language text books, we ask, and ask, and ask, and I don’t want to offend you, but you don’t care.

Your businessmen come and rob us of our natural resources, they are not interested in anything but oil, gas that will enrich them. But how about our industry? Our national strategic interests? You don’t care!

I was there when the Soviet Union collapsed, I’ve witnessed it. I know why it has collapsed- it is for the same things you are doing now. It did not support the small nations, did not help them develop economically, preserve culture, traditions. Same as you!

We are not a big nation, we are not a hundred million nation but we have our history, we have our culture and traditions and we love them. We do not want your money, we want to be respected as we deserve.


We host your military bases, we do everything you ask for, we really try to be what you pretend to be to us “strategic partners.” But we are never being treated like strategic partners! No offense, but we want to be respected! (Loose translation summary)

If only Putin had an army left, he’d show this insolent Rahmon a thing or two! But he doesn’t have an army anymore, which is why the Tajik leader felt emboldened to unload as his fellow Central Asian heads of state watched approvingly. These screencaps really do capture the vibe:

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Other than Belarus, which is playing its own rope-a-dope games with Russia, the rest of Russia’s neighbors all agree. Russia is more isolated than ever.

Also, there’s something wrong with Putin’s face. Those cheeks aren’t normal.
......
Speaking of Belarus, there is still no real sign it plans on entering the war, no matter how much it pretends otherwise. That’s why the country is happy to ship off its decrepit old tanks to Russia. If those tanks are destined for destruction (and they are), best to have Russians inside them.



On the other hand, Belarus is still pretending to threaten northern Ukraine with a new joint “regional group.”



This is all for show. If Russia and Belarus were serious about opening up a new front near Kyiv again, they wouldn’t be shipping the armor off to Russia and who knows where in Ukraine (somewhere in the Donbas, presumably).


And remember, Russia’s best VDV airborne troops, with no fortifications north of Kyiv, never reached the Ukrainian capital. Today, Ukraine has heavy fortified the border and approaches, has well-entrenched battle-hardened territorial defense forces manning those lines, and has HIMARS/MLRS. Just imagine what HIMARS would’ve done to that “40-mile column” in the early days of the war. Russia hasn’t solved its logistical issues, and poorly trained mobilized rabble, the same ones complaining about lack of shoes and killing each other in Russia, are going to be even less of a threat than the shit Russia previously sent on that approach.
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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RIA Novosti: Mass shooting at Russian military training base near Belgorod, at least 11 killed

Charles Jay

The official Russian news agency RIA Novosti is reporting that at least 11 people were killed and another 15 wounded in a mass shooting at a military training base near Belgorod, close to the Ukrainian border.

The Ministry of Defense reported that the two attackers were citizens of one of the countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The ministry described it as a “terrorist attack.”




 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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A desperate Putin is reportedly pushing for a temporary cease-fire; Ukraine says no way

Charles Jay

Vladimir Putin was in a state of denial when he held a news conference on Friday in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana following a summit meeting of the Confederation of Independent States (CIS), comprising some former Soviet republics.

Here’s how Putin assessed the war in Ukraine, according to a report by the independent Russian news outlet Meduza:

“I want to be clear. What’s happening now is unpleasant, to put it mildly. But all the same things would have happened later, under worse conditions for us. So our actions are correct and timely.”

“Unpleasant?’ That is indeed putting mildly what has been an unmitigated disaster for Putin and Russia. At the same time, we shouldn’t forget that the Ukrainian people have paid a heavy price as they’ve successfully fought off the Russian invaders.

But now the Russian leader has become increasingly desperate as he has painted himself into an ever-shrinking corner. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has continued to liberate more territory in provinces annexed by Russia just weeks ago; the “partial mobilization” has been a total failure, resulting in far more Russian men fleeing the country than showing up at enlistment centers, and Western countries have pledged to build up Ukraine’s air defenses after last Monday’s massive missile attack following the embarrassing attack on the Crimean bridge.

Russia is generally retreating and trying to form new defensive lines in the Tri-Oblast area of Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk as well as in Kherson to the south. Russia’s only offensive advances have been toward the city of Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk, led by the Wagner Group of private mercenaries which has been trying to capture the town for months.

So what is happening behind the scenes in the Kremlin? According to Meduza, which has good sources in the Kremlin, Putin is now trying to buy time to regroup by pushing for a temporary ceasefire, which likely would include withdrawing troops from part of the occupied Kherson region. Ukraine has already signaled that the ceasefire proposal is a non-starter.


But the fact that Russia would consider such a proposal is a sign of growing desperation over how the war is going. It also may reflect its battlefield strategy, giving up most offensive initiatives in favor of adopting a more defensive posture. Not that this will stop Ukrainian forces from advancing.

Meduza summed up the situation as follows:

Meduza has learned from multiple sources close to the Russian government that the Kremlin has simultaneously been lobbying Western leaders behind closed doors to convince Kyiv to agree to a temporary ceasefire. But according to the sources, Putin has no intention of ending the war; instead, his ceasefire campaign is part of a wider strategy to buy time for training conscripts and replenishing supplies in order to launch a "full-scale offensive" in February or March.
...

The Ukrainian side has rejected the possibility of negotiating with Putin multiple times in recent months. And in early October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree officially stating the “”impossibility of negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.” The order was adopted in response to the “referendums” held by the Russian authorities as a step towards annexing Ukrainian territories.

Now this temporary ceasefire proposal might appeal to tankies in the West, but it isn’t even a peace treaty. Putin is still insisting that the four recently annexed occupied Ukrainian provinces as well as Crimea (annexed in 2014) are part of Russia.

Ukraine has no intention of letting the badly wounded Russian bear peacefully hibernate through the winter only to emerge in the Spring refreshed and rejuvenated.


All it does is gain time for beleaguered Russian forces to strengthen their defensive lines, replenish ammunition stocks and equipment, and hunker down for the winter. It also gives more time for the new recruits from the partial mobilization and the new fall class of conscripts to train. Under Russian law, conscripts can’t be deployed to fight outside of Russia, but they now can be sent to the front in the newly annexed provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia which the Kremlin considers part of Russia.

But while Putin’s position on the occupied territories hasn’t changed, Meduza’s sources say the Russian authorities have developed a new “tactical option. Russian leaders believe a temporary ceasefire “could be arranged through negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian troops — without the involvement of either country’s president.” Really?

Meduza’s Kremlin sources did say that Russia would likely be willing to withdraw troops from at least part of the occupied section of Kherson province as a “gesture of goodwill.”

That’s an empty gesture. As the front-line has moved closer to Kherson city, the Russian-appointed governor of the Kherson Oblast, Vladimir Saldo, appealed to Russia to help evacuate residents. Kyiv officials have said Ukrainian forces hope to reach the city by Christmas, if not sooner.

Meduza wrote:

“It’s very hard to hold Kherson right now, and the withdrawal of troops from the region could be done as a gesture of goodwill and a step forward towards Ukraine,” one source close to the Kremlin said.
According to Meduza’s sources, the Kremlin has been trying to “influence Western leaders” and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan to “convince” Ukraine to return to negotiations with Russia. Meduza’s sources claim that Russia is using a “simple argument” in its communications with foreign leaders: “Civilian casualties must be avoided.” These talks have been going on amid the widespread shelling of Ukrainian cities that Russia launched after the explosion on the Crimean Bridge on October 8 and Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in September.
At the same time, Meduza’s sources emphasized that Vladimir Putin has no plans to end the war, and that he hopes to use the prospective ceasefire to prepare for a new offensive. As Putin sees it, the truce would allow the Russian army to train newly mobilized soldiers for war and replenish its equipment. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov did not respond to Meduza’s questions.

Under the Kremlin’s plan, according to Meduza’s sources, the “new full-scale offensive” might start in approximately February or March of 2023.

Ukraine’s official position regarding any negotiations with Russia remains unchanged.

“We’ll be ready for negotiations with Russia, though not with Putin, but with his replacement,” a source from Volodymyr Zelensky’s office told Meduza. He then called on Russians to do their part to make the negotiations happen sooner: “Bring down that delusional Putin of yours.”

The source added that Ukraine has long been distrustful of any statements — and “gestures of goodwill” — from Russia: “He keeps lying, Putin does. He talks about how he’s reading for negotiations, then he launches missile strikes on civilians. I don’t think there will be any ceasefire until our territories are de-occupied, until they’re liberated.”

A top adviser to Zelenskyy, Mykhailo Podolyak, saw through the Russian ruse, telling Meduza:

What does a ceasefire give Ukraine, in the Russian scenario? … Can they really believe we’re going to agree to that? Especially against the backdrop of the counteroffensive…
A clear operational pause for the brutally battered Russian units, so they can at least train a few hastily mobilized soldiers and send a new quantity of death-bound men to the battlefield? What would we want that for?
According to Podolyak, “this scenario is absolutely not in Ukraine’s interests, so these proposals — whether or not they’re made publicly — are out of the question.” Podolyak stressed that Ukraine is “extremely interested” in defeating Russia militarily: “Because that’s the only thing that will allow us to truly end the war, gain the opportunity to brutally punish the war criminals through legal channels, and indirectly facilitate the launch of a scenario in which the Russian political system of Russia itself is transformed.”

(Meduza has granted open access to all its coverage of the war in Ukraine under a Creative Commons license)
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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Kherson

🇺🇦 hit 🇷🇺 positions in Kherson, with reports mentioning hundreds of 🇷🇺 KIA.

Early on Saturday, 🇷🇺 sources were reporting a massive attack of 🇺🇦 forces in Berislav, including artillery & aviation, and causing panic in the 🇷🇺 chats that was later quenched by the centralized 🇷🇺 propaganda efforts later in the day. 🇷🇺 fears shrinking of the 🇷🇺 hold in Kherson and future constant bombardment of the remaining 🇷🇺 host in Kherson region.
 

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Rennie Petersen
Oct 16, 2022 at 07:22:17 AM

I was in Bucha three weeks ago, doing “research” for my next book. That was about six months after the Russian occupation and atrocities, so things were somewhat cleaned up. But there were still many destroyed building that had not yet been demolished, and damaged buildings that had not yet been fixed up. But they were working on it.


One thing that surprised me a bit was that the few residents I interacted with seemed to be unaffected by what had happened, they were acting just like people everywhere, getting on with their daily lives. I bought a jar of honey from a guy who told me he was 84, and he wryly remarked, “so, what do you think of WW III?”. We agreed that it would be nice if someone shot Putin in the head.
 

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Mykhailo Yatsentiuk left the basement to make tea for his granddaughter just as the bomb struck. When he came to his senses a half hour later the entire middle section of his apartment block had been destroyed; the basement where he had been sheltering with his family and neighbors was engulfed in flames.

The Ukrainian government says 54 people died at the apartment complex on 2 Pershotravneva street in Izium, eastern Ukraine, on March 9, almost half of the building’s residents. Entire families were killed in the attack, including the Yatsentiuks, Kravchenkos and Stolpakovas.

Their fates remained largely unknown until a few weeks ago when Ukrainian forces pursuing a counter-offensive reclaimed Izium after six months of Russian occupation, revealing a mass burial site on the outskirts of the city.

Most of the residents of 2 Pershotravneva were buried there among more than 400 graves, few with identifying marks other than numbers daubed on rough wooden crosses.

After speaking to a survivor, ex-residents and family members, and reviewing photos and video taken in the aftermath of the attack and following the town’s liberation, CNN can now tell the story of what happened at 2 Pershotravneva on that day.....