Texas at Michigan

[bdgan]

I think this could be a very big game for PSU to make the playoffs. Oregon & OSU are favorites to win the BiG and there's a good chance that the conference will only get 3 teams*. That means PSU could be battling UM for the 3rd spot.

Michigan's top opponents are Texas, USC, and Oregon (all at home) and OSU (on the road). If UM beats Texas they have a great chance to finish with only 2 losses and have a signature win.

Neither OSU or OR have a challenging out of conference game. OSU plays @ OR and @ PSU. Their next best opponents are Nebraska & Iowa. Oregon plays @ OSU and gets UM at home. Their next toughest opponent is Wisconsin.


* Keep in mind that Notre Dame faces only one top 10 opponent (FSU) and 5 conference winners get an automatic bid.

 

[LandoComando]

I think this could be a very big game for PSU to make the playoffs. Oregon & OSU are favorites to win the BiG and there's a good chance that the conference will only get 3 teams*. That means PSU could be battling UM for the 3rd spot.

Michigan's top opponents are Texas, USC, and Oregon (all at home) and OSU (on the road). If UM beats Texas they have a great chance to finish with only 2 losses and have a signature win.

Neither OSU or OR have a challenging out of conference game. OSU plays @ OR and @ PSU. Their next best opponents are Nebraska & Iowa. Oregon plays @ OSU and gets UM at home. Their next toughest opponent is Wisconsin.


* Keep in mind that Notre Dame faces only one top 10 opponent (FSU) and 5 conference winners get an automatic bid.

A loss to Texas won't be held against Michigan as long as Texas is good. Texas could be as big of an issue as Michigan for us getting into the playoff. Not sure which winning is actually better for us. We don't play either so probably not a huge impact. Just sad we don't have a quality game like this out of conference

 

[ryoder1]

I think this could be a very big game for PSU to make the playoffs. Oregon & OSU are favorites to win the BiG and there's a good chance that the conference will only get 3 teams*. That means PSU could be battling UM for the 3rd spot.

Michigan's top opponents are Texas, USC, and Oregon (all at home) and OSU (on the road). If UM beats Texas they have a great chance to finish with only 2 losses and have a signature win.

Neither OSU or OR have a challenging out of conference game. OSU plays @ OR and @ PSU. Their next best opponents are Nebraska & Iowa. Oregon plays @ OSU and gets UM at home. Their next toughest opponent is Wisconsin.


* Keep in mind that Notre Dame faces only one top 10 opponent (FSU) and 5 conference winners get an automatic bid.

I agree we want Texas to win. We would want that though even if Michigan was predicted to have 5 losses.

Penn State is picked to finish 3rd behind OSU and Oregon. That means only one loss. That also means Michigan loses to Oregon and OSU, which I think will happen. Problem solved but things usually don't work out so nicely.

In your scenario which is a real possibility, what happens if both Penn State and Michigan have two losses? We probably lose out because.....well they are mighty Michigan men. To take care of the situation it would be great for Michigan to pick up a 3rd loss and Texas could do it. Or of course, we take care of business in the Coliseum vs USC, in Madison and versus Washington and finish with one loss.

The worst case scenario for us is Michigan finishes with only two losses (Oregon and OSU), we have two losses (losing to USC and OSU) and USC has two losses (LSU and Michigan). I think we are third in that scenario with worse losses than Michigan and losing head to head vs USC.

The wildcard team this year in my opinion is Washington. They play us away and have Michigan and USC at home. They could disrupt the apple cart in a good way for us as long as we beat them.

 

[lazydave841]

If UM beats Texas they have a great chance to finish with only 2 losses and have a signature win.

If UM beats Texas, they could be good enough to finish with 1 loss, maybe 0.

The issue is, both teams have question marks. Ewers has a slew of new weapons and I don't think it's a given they reload. they also have an SEC schedule now, a much different beast than the Big 12. Michigan should have a great defense, but the offense will be brand new minus Edwards and Loveland. And no Jimmah. That alone is huge.

 

[ryoder1]

If UM beats Texas, they could be good enough to finish with 1 loss, maybe 0.

The issue is, both teams have question marks. Ewers has a slew of new weapons and I don't think it's a given they reload. they also have an SEC schedule now, a much different beast than the Big 12. Michigan should have a great defense, but the offense will be brand new minus Edwards and Loveland. And no Jimmah. That alone is huge.

This new Michigan coach could be the next Jimmah or the next Brady Hoke. Who knows. They also are breaking in a new QB.

 

[Obliviax]

If UM beats Texas, they could be good enough to finish with 1 loss, maybe 0.

The issue is, both teams have question marks. Ewers has a slew of new weapons and I don't think it's a given they reload. they also have an SEC schedule now, a much different beast than the Big 12. Michigan should have a great defense, but the offense will be brand new minus Edwards and Loveland. And no Jimmah. That alone is huge.

If they beat both UT and tOSU they deserve it.

They are a very talented team with a new coaching staff coming off of a natty. both Oregon and UM will be breaking in new QBs.

To me, the clear choice is tOSU of course. After that, Oregon, UM and PSU. Of all of those teams, we are the only one with continuity at QB.

 

[LandoComando]

If they beat both UT and tOSU they deserve it.

They are a very talented team with a new coaching staff coming off of a natty. both Oregon and UM will be breaking in new QBs.

To me, the clear choice is tOSU of course. After that, Oregon, UM and PSU. Of all of those teams, we are the only one with continuity at QB.

There's 7 at large spots. The Big Ten and SEC will likely get 6 of those. I'm not following the logic of Michigan or Texas being more directly in competition with us

 

[lazydave841]

Oregon... will be breaking in new QBs

While new, Oregon's QB is a 5th/6th year guy who is a great fit for their offense. They have a WR room full of transfers, headlined by Stewart, and a senior heavy OL.

Timing and integration might be their biggest problem early on, but the schedule is spaced nicely for them to gel.

 

[bdroc]

There's 7 at large spots. The Big Ten and SEC will likely get 6 of those. I'm not following the logic of Michigan or Texas being more directly in competition with us

You're saying that the SEC & BiG will have 8 of the 12 playoff teams. I think that's unlikely. It means no other conference gets 2.

 

[LandoComando]

You're saying that the SEC & BiG will have 8 of the 12 playoff teams. I think that's unlikely. It means no other conference gets 2.

At least 6 at large spots...what other conference should get 2? If Texas and OU were still in the Big XII then maybe but this is all being done to make the Big Ten and SEC content and not leave the NCAA. A 2 loss Big Ten/SEC is more deserving than a 1 loss team from any other conference.

 

[knickslions]

You're saying that the SEC & BiG will have 8 of the 12 playoff teams. I think that's unlikely. It means no other conference gets 2.

Absolutely. Don’t agree with him much but no doubt sec and big ten get 4 in each every year. This will be norm

 

[bdgan]

At least 6 at large spots...what other conference should get 2? If Texas and OU were still in the Big XII then maybe but this is all being done to make the Big Ten and SEC content and not leave the NCAA. A 2 loss Big Ten/SEC is more deserving than a 1 loss team from any other conference.

5 Conference champions get in. Obviously the BiG and SEC champs but that leaves 3 more. Assume those from the ACC (FSU), Big 12 (Utah), and Pac 12 (Oregon St). That's the 5 automatic bids. Oregon State seems like a long shot but another conference winner (AAC, Conf USA) would take their place.

Now the 7 at large bids :
Notre Dame - Independent
Clemson or Miami 2nd highest ranked team from ACC
Either Liberty (Conf USA) or Memphis (AAC) could be 0 or 1 loss and get an at large spot

That would leave only 4 at large spots for BiG & SEC teams. You'll scoff at the Pac 12, AAC, and Conf USA but one of those conference winners is virtually guaranteed a spot and another could easily finish with 0 or 1 loss.

5 conference champs
Notre Dame
ACC runner up
An undefeated team from a smaller conference
4 at large bids for BiG and SEC

The only way your scenario plays out is if the ACC doesn't get 2 and there is no 11 or 12 win team from the Pac 12, AAC, Mountain West, or Conference USA.

Bottom line is a 3 loss team from the BiG or SEC could get in but it's far from guaranteed.

 

[ryoder1]

Absolutely. Don’t agree with him much but no doubt sec and big ten get 4 in each every year. This will be norm

So it could be OSU, Oregon. Michigan and USC from the B10. Then 4 from SEC, Then 4 from B12, ACC., Group of 5 and no Penn State.

 

[Hawkeybrokenglasses69]

So it could be OSU, Oregon. Michigan and USC from the B10. Then 4 from SEC, Then 4 from B12, ACC., Group of 5 and no Penn State.

That could happen. If penn state isn’t in top 4 they don’t deserve to be in anyway. With the schedules they should be top 3 but anything can happen. I think 1 loss is what I would bet on. Ohio state is tough game but it’s home. USC on the road but their defense blows and they are breaking in new Qb. The schedule is really good this year

 

[lazydave841]

Pac 12 (Oregon St)

Pac doesn't get auto bid now.

4 bigs (sec, b10, acc, b12) and 1 group of 5 do.

No more divisions means no more Iowa playing in the ccg while 2 other teams are obviously better and ranked higher, but at least if Iowa pulls this upset, it will mean something now.

 

[bdgan]

So it could be OSU, Oregon. Michigan and USC from the B10. Then 4 from SEC, Then 4 from B12, ACC., Group of 5 and no Penn State.

Something like this is possible:

4 SEC (GA, AL, TX, Miss)
3 BiG (OSU, OR, UM)
2 ACC (FSU, Clem)
1 Big 12 (Utah)
1 AAC, Pac 12, , Mountain West, or Conf USA (Memphis?)
1 Independent (ND)

Now what if there are 2 undefeated teams from AAC, Pac 12, MW, and Conf USA? Maybe the SEC drops down to 3 teams.

This isn't what I'm predicting. I'm just arguing that the 4th place team in the BiG is far from a sure thing.

 

[Obliviax]

Something like this is possible:

4 SEC (GA, AL, TX, Miss)
3 BiG (OSU, OR, UM)
2 ACC (FSU, Clem)
1 Big 12 (Utah)
1 AAC, Pac 12, , Mountain West, or Conf USA (Memphis?)
1 Independent (ND)

Now what if there are 2 undefeated teams from AAC, Pac 12, MW, and Conf USA? Maybe the SEC drops down to 3 teams.

This isn't what I'm predicting. I'm just arguing that the 4th place team in the BiG is far from a sure thing.

Sounds about right. A lot depends on the 4th SEC vs the 4th B1G team and SOS. There are always a couple of teams that capture the committee's imagination like TCU did two years ago. Teams like Central FL, Iowa State, and Memphis.

 

[knickslions]

So it could be OSU, Oregon. Michigan and USC from the B10. Then 4 from SEC, Then 4 from B12, ACC., Group of 5 and no Penn State.

I still think Penn State is top 3

 

[SheldonJoe2215]

UT/Mich...still rooting for this...

 

[lazydave841]

Something like this is possible:

4 SEC (GA, AL, TX, Miss)
3 BiG (OSU, OR, UM)
2 ACC (FSU, Clem)
1 Big 12 (Utah)
1 AAC, Pac 12, , Mountain West, or Conf USA (Memphis?)
1 Independent (ND)

Now what if there are 2 undefeated teams from AAC, Pac 12, MW, and Conf USA? Maybe the SEC drops down to 3 teams.

This isn't what I'm predicting. I'm just arguing that the 4th place team in the BiG is far from a sure thing.

Liberty has the most friendly schedule. Zero P4 opponents.

I don't think a 2nd team gets in even if undefeated.

I think Notre Dame has a tough path unless someone on their schedule surprises with a good year. Right now, Florida State and USC are their 2 toughest games. They need both of them to be strong and a 1-1 split is the worst they can do.

Do agree, 4th place BiG 10 and SEC could be a huge "they did this, they lost that" argument.

 

[bdroc]

Pac doesn't get auto bid now.

4 bigs (sec, b10, acc, b12) and 1 group of 5 do.

No more divisions means no more Iowa playing in the ccg while 2 other teams are obviously better and ranked higher, but at least if Iowa pulls this upset, it will mean something now.

The 5 highest ranked conference winners get in just like you said. The PAC 12 is one of the possibilities.

But that doesn't mean the ACC can't get 2. It also doesn't mean that an undefeated Conf USA (or AAC, etc) winner can't get an at large bid ahead of the 4th place BiG team.

 

[SheldonJoe2215]

The 5 highest ranked conference winners get in just like you said. The PAC 12 is one of the possibilities.

But that doesn't mean the ACC can't get 2. It also doesn't mean that an undefeated Conf USA (or AAC, etc) winner can't get an at large bid ahead of the 4th place BiG team.

At least the Pac12 winner can say that they played and beat every team in the conference.

Zing.

 

[Crusher1950]

A 3 loss Psu team will not get in the playoff

 

[lazydave841]

The 5 highest ranked conference winners get in just like you said. The PAC 12 is one of the possibilities.

But that doesn't mean the ACC can't get 2. It also doesn't mean that an undefeated Conf USA (or AAC, etc) winner can't get an at large bid ahead of the 4th place BiG team.

The PAC 12 can't get an autobid. They are playing for an at large just like the Gof5.

ACC can definitely get 2, but they probably need both ranked in the top 11 during ccg week, otherwise they can get 1 team left out rather easily.

Having to take 1 Liberty or similar from the Gof5 already creates a bad matchup in most seasons. I see absolutely no way they take a 2nd non-P4 team. Cincinnati had to put 2 great years together back to back just to make that 4 seed. While not IMPOSSIBLE, it is very IMPROBABLE.

 

[Obliviax]

I've not gambled a dollar on sports but I may put some money on Rutgers to make the playoffs

 

[lazydave841]

A 3 loss Psu team will not get in the playoff

Where did you read anyone write that they would?

 

[lazydave841]

I've not gambled a dollar on sports but I may put some money on Rutgers to make the playoffs

View embedded media

Just bet big on the over win total. Rutgers won 7 last year and they played Michigan, OSU, Iowa, and us.

 

[Obliviax]

A 3 loss Psu team will not get in the playoff

I'll bet a 4 loss season doesn't get in either.

 

[LandoComando]

5 Conference champions get in. Obviously the BiG and SEC champs but that leaves 3 more. Assume those from the ACC (FSU), Big 12 (Utah), and Pac 12 (Oregon St). That's the 5 automatic bids. Oregon State seems like a long shot but another conference winner (AAC, Conf USA) would take their place.

Now the 7 at large bids :
Notre Dame - Independent
Clemson or Miami 2nd highest ranked team from ACC
Either Liberty (Conf USA) or Memphis (AAC) could be 0 or 1 loss and get an at large spot

That would leave only 4 at large spots for BiG & SEC teams. You'll scoff at the Pac 12, AAC, and Conf USA but one of those conference winners is virtually guaranteed a spot and another could easily finish with 0 or 1 loss.

5 conference champs
Notre Dame
ACC runner up
An undefeated team from a smaller conference
4 at large bids for BiG and SEC

The only way your scenario plays out is if the ACC doesn't get 2 and there is no 11 or 12 win team from the Pac 12, AAC, Mountain West, or Conference USA.

Bottom line is a 3 loss team from the BiG or SEC could get in but it's far from guaranteed.

No. The ACC isn't getting 2 teams. They illogical same with the Big XII. And only one small conference team will ever get in.

The 5 auto bids
ND possibly
The rest go Big Ten and SEC. This is why the playoff was expanded. For 2 conferences.

 

[LandoComando]

Something like this is possible:

4 SEC (GA, AL, TX, Miss)
3 BiG (OSU, OR, UM)
2 ACC (FSU, Clem)
1 Big 12 (Utah)
1 AAC, Pac 12, , Mountain West, or Conf USA (Memphis?)
1 Independent (ND)

Now what if there are 2 undefeated teams from AAC, Pac 12, MW, and Conf USA? Maybe the SEC drops down to 3 teams.

This isn't what I'm predicting. I'm just arguing that the 4th place team in the BiG is far from a sure thing.

The Big Ten and SEC get 6 at large. Not 3 for each which is why Texas or Michigan winning is equally bad

 

[Obliviax]

Rutgers schedule:

• Howard
• Akron
• VTech
• Washington
• Nebraska
• Wisconsin
• UCLA
• USC
• Minnesota
• MD
• ILL
• MSU

Not playing Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, tOSU, or Iowa.

 

[SheldonJoe2215]

Rutgers schedule:

• Howard
• Akron
• VTech
• Washington
• Nebraska
• Wisconsin
• UCLA
• USC
• Minnesota
• MD
• ILL
• MSU

Not playing Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, tOSU, or Iowa.

And they have 3 FCS/Mid-majors on their schedule: Howard, Akron, & UCLA

 

[bdroc]

I still think Penn State is top 3

That's the goal

 

[Obliviax]

While new, Oregon's QB is a 5th/6th year guy who is a great fit for their offense. They have a WR room full of transfers, headlined by Stewart, and a senior heavy OL.

Timing and integration might be their biggest problem early on, but the schedule is spaced nicely for them to gel.

 

[ryoder1]

This thread just highlights how absolutely critical the USC game is. We need to win it (I know call me Captain Obvious).

If we don't and also lose to OSU then our playoff hopes get very dicey. We need to take care of Wisconsin in Madison also and the other games but that is assumed otherwise we have no business sniffing a playoff berth.

The scenario I keep going back to which could happen given our luck in these things is:

-We have a solid but not spectacular season losing to USC and OSU.

-Michigan only loses to Oregon at home and OSU on the road.

-USC beats us and only loses to LSU and Michigan. Their difficult games besides us, Michigan and LSU is at UDub and home to ND.

-Oregon wins all their games except OSU.

If this plays out we are certainly aced out of the playoff. Don't see us making it as we would be #5 in the B10.

How to avoid this nightmare scenario?

Beat USC (win the others of course but I am assuming the obligatory OSU loss)...OR

To the OP's point, nice to see Texas beat Michigan

Have Washington beat USC and/or Michigan

Basically we need USC and/or Michigan to get a third loss.

 

[Nbergbuck]

Something like this is possible:

4 SEC (GA, AL, TX, Miss)
3 BiG (OSU, OR, UM)
2 ACC (FSU, Clem)
1 Big 12 (Utah)
1 AAC, Pac 12, , Mountain West, or Conf USA (Memphis?)
1 Independent (ND)

Now what if there are 2 undefeated teams from AAC, Pac 12, MW, and Conf USA? Maybe the SEC drops down to 3 teams.

This isn't what I'm predicting. I'm just arguing that the 4th place team in the BiG is far from a sure thing.

Penn State is more likely to make the playoffs than Michigan. JMO.

 

[87 Penn St8]

If UM beats Texas, they could be good enough to finish with 1 loss, maybe 0.

The issue is, both teams have question marks. Ewers has a slew of new weapons and I don't think it's a given they reload. they also have an SEC schedule now, a much different beast than the Big 12. Michigan should have a great defense, but the offense will be brand new minus Edwards and Loveland. And no Jimmah. That alone is huge.

There may be a guy in an Eastern Michigan hat and sunglasses sitting across from the UT bench surrounded by a Netflix sound and film crew. 🎥

Nothing to see there....everyone carry on as normal. The new UM coach seems like a decent guy....but I hope the Longhorns kick their ass and welcome them to their (hopeful) Post Harbaugh reality.

Cheaters aren't supposed to prosper....

 

[bdgan]

No. The ACC isn't getting 2 teams.

Clemson's top games are against GA and FSU
Miami's top games are against FL & FSU

Both of those teams have the potential to finish 11-1 with a signature win that would be better than PSU beating USC.

Florida State has a much more difficult schedule. They play Memphis, Clemson, Florida, and Notre Dame. They would have a compelling argument even with 2 losses.

It's possible that the ACC only gets 1 team but it's also possible that they get 2.

 

[LandoComando]

Clemson's top games are against GA and FSU
Miami's top games are against FL & FSU

Both of those teams have the potential to finish 11-1 with a signature win that would be better than PSU beating USC.

Florida State has a much more difficult schedule. They play Memphis, Clemson, Florida, and Notre Dame. They would have a compelling argument even with 2 losses.

It's possible that the ACC only gets 1 team but it's also possible that they get 2.

A 2 loss ACC team has no shot
A 1 loss only has a shot if they're competing against 3 loss teams.
As weak as our non conference slate is....Memphis and Florida aren't impressive unless, especially Florida, greatly improve.
If we go 10-2 we're in.

 

[lazydave841]

A 2 loss ACC team has no shot

FSU, Clemson, Miami - they MIGHT, but it honestly depends on a lot of other things playing out a specific way. Entirely too much to list. The SEC only playing 8 conference games will benefit them as well and probably assures 4 SEC teams every year.

If the ACC ccg loser is top 10 going into ccg week, I wonder if they get dropped with a close loss?

Now a Louisville or a VaTech, they probably are going to have to win the conference to get in.