The State of Penn State Pre-Tournaments

[Lion-around]

After a damn good showing against Iowa, the thought was this team was peaking for the two big tournaments - B1G and nationals. I think the performance today against Okie State was an unwelcome dose of reality that showed we will be very long shots to win a fifth in a row B1G and/or national tournament.

Here is my take:

125 - Conaway is a low AA at best. To many woulda-shoulda-coulda losses to see him contend for anything else.

133 - Gulibon has come of age. Whatever demons he had last year, he has exorcised them and I think he can contend for it all.

141 - I think Moss is developing nicely; not sure it is enough to be a qualifier at nationals, but I like what I've seen in his last few matches. Can't see how he fits in the lineup next year with Zain returning, but he'll be a great back-up for Zain if needed.

149 - Beitz has really stepped it up. If he can pin Kindig he has the talent to contend for an AA. He will be interesting to watch.

157 - I'm sure we're all surprised to see how Dylan wrestled today; however, I think the coaches felt they owed Dylan a chance to show what he could do. I'd be surprised if Dylan is our wrestler at 157 in the tournaments. I think Law has the edge over Frey; not sure Law/Frey qualifies for nationals.

165 - Hammond had a tough opponent today; didn't see anything today to make me feel he has taken any steps toward having a leg up next year as the 165 starter. No chance to AA this year IMO.

174 - Brown got sloppy today and almost paid for it. I think Matt feels he has to score bonus points for the team and that mind set opens him up for mistakes. If he simply concentrates on winning, not winning with bonus points, he should be the NC.

184 - McCutcheon for me is the biggest disappointment of all the wrestlers. I'll leave it at that; he is not the answer at 184.

197 - McIntosh looks great; not sure he can win NC, but I'm confident he will be a high AA.

285 - I like Gingrich over Lawson. Gingrich at least appears to be more aggressive on the mat. Not sure either is a strong candidate to AA. Hope Cael is looking for a back-up for Nevills for next year; we're all aware we lose 3 heavies this year.

Team - Brown, McIntosh and Gulibon can contend for NC or be a high AA. Conaway, Beitz and Gingrich/Lawson are borderline AAs. I was somewhat encouraged after the Iowa match about our tournament chances, but the OSU match was an unfortunate and unwelcome return to reality. I'm confident we will out perform expectations at both tournaments (ala PSU at the Scuffle) and we should be well rested since we are not participating in the National Duals. Can we win a fifth straight - probably not; too many weight classes at which we will not perform as we would like. Hopefully these two tournaments set the stage for a strong run next year.

 

[jschrantz]

Great post^^^^

If not Hammond starting at 65 next year, who ya got? Rasheed? Maybe Nolf is up a weight? You hear anything
on how Rasheed does in the room vs Hammond? Also, I think we may be better served with Bo up at 184, get Shakur, Nolf, and Hammond in the lineup. I don't see improvement in Cutch, he's struggling bad

This post was edited on 2/15 8:10 PM by jschrantz

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

I've said it before and will say it again. This is a very young team and its no surprise they are inconsistent. I know it can be frustrating but just enjoy the ride. Another great match today that could have gone either way. Experience like that is invaluable and will help down the road.

Keep the faith.

 

[Lion-around]

Re: Great post^^^^

For 2015/2016, my thoughts are this:

125 - For a long time I had been a big advocate for Nico taking an Olympic RS if he qualified next year. It would give Conaway a way to finish out his wrestling career as a starter and give us Nico in 2016/2017 as the starter. I think we'll need Nico next year if we want to contend.

133 - Gulibon

141 - Retherford

149 - Beitz

157 - Nolf - this guy will contend for a NC right out of the gate; he is a bonus scoring machine.

165 - Hammond/Law

174 - Rasheed (Cael has hinted that Rasheed may have out grown 165)

184 - Nickal - has the frame to add weight if needed

197 - McIntosh

285 - Nevills - have to be a little wary of his injury given no backup on the team as of today.

 

[androcles]

...I agree with most of what you say...

...I don't believe anyone believed that this year's team would be able to win a 5th Big 10 or
NCAA championship ...

...I hoped this year would be a time for Conaway, Gulibon, Moss, Beitz, Law, Hammond and McCutcheon to be able to wrestle on a regular basis
and hopefully achieve a level of proficiency to be able to join with the upperclass and incoming red shirts as the basis for another championship
level team for the following 3-4 years...

...and I think this has been the result we have seen this year...

...a few of the first time starters may not have progressed as rapidly as we had hoped
but one only has to think back to the careers of a few former Penn State wrestlers named
McCoy and Molinari to understand that one year's performance is not always the determinant
of one's ultimate accomplishments...

This post was edited on 2/15 8:53 PM by androcles

 

[El-Jefe]

Black Shoe Diaries has been running a great series projecting B10 tourney seeds and guesstimating NCAA auto-qualifiers. I'm sure it'll get updated again after this weekend. Linking the most recent.

To summarize:
125: Conaway #5 seed, 6 bids. Safe for qualifying. If he somehow slips, he should get an at-large.
133: Gulibon #4, 10 bids. Lock for nationals.
141: Moss #7, 6 bids. At risk, but doable. Probably won't get an at-large bid
149: Beitz #5, 5 bids. At risk -- the 5 auto-qualifiers do not include Stieber or Arthur. Doable, but not much margin for error. Probable at-large bid but not something he should count on.
157: Alton #6, 6 bids. Major risk. The Alton who wrestled today will not qualify. Law and Frey would be unseeded and must hope to avoid Ness, Martinez, and Green for as long as possible. I don't think we can get an at-large at 157.
165: Hammond US (9th), 7 bids. At risk. Again, will depend upon his draw (Walsh ideal). Decent chance at an at-large bid.
174: Brown #2, 7 bids. Lock.
184: Mouse #7, 7 bids. At risk, but if he can somehow get bracketed against Dudley, he's in. Decent chance at an at-large, but again should not rely upon it.
197: Smack #2, 8 bids. Lock.
285; Lawson #5, 7 bids. Lawson is in decent shape. Gingrich is a little riskier -- he could get the #9 seed due to lack of conference matches, but should earn his way in. I think there is some margin here -- the B10 will likely get at least 1 at-large.

http://www.blackshoediaries.com/2015/2/12/8018119/big-ten-wrestling-standings-2-10-2015-iowa-penn-state-ohio-state-minnesota-nebraska

 

[Maddog]

I think BSD is seriously underestimating how many slots the B1G will qualify at most weights. In the second Coaches' Poll just released, the B1G has 10-12 ranked wrestlers at every weight except 149 (8) and 125 (5). If any of these ranked wrestlers also has a high enough RPI (and wrestling in the B1G definitely helps this) and/or winning percentage then they auto-qualify a slot for the conference. I expect the B1G to have at least 7 slots at all weights except 125.
This post was edited on 2/16 8:54 AM by Maddog

 

[El-Jefe]

Maddog, I think you're right: BSD was conservative in projecting conference allocations. Expecting that to be part of this week's update now that the Coaches' Poll and RPI are out.

In any case, that article does a good job of showing where our guys stand at each weight, and is worth reading with whatever necessary caveats.

 

[Maddog]

" Expecting that to be part of this week's update now that the Coaches' Poll and RPI are out."

Has the RPI come out yet? Haven't seen it, if so.

 

[Azchief32]

Had my fun on another thread so I will get serious. I think you all have a decent shot at third but Conaway and Jimmy have to have a big result along with whomever goes heavy. I don't see tO$U being the showstoppers that everybody thinks. All of their new talent are at tough weights (cept for Bo) which could mean some early upsets.I think its going to be a battle between Iowa and Minne for the title but every year it seems there is a team in the top five that everybody has written off. Last year, it was OSU.

Tanmen AA's: 125, 141 (champ), 157 (maybe), 165, 197

I don't think JDJ gets it done at 133. Just don't like his style for a NCAA type tourney.

PSU: 125 (maybe), 133, 149 (maybe), 174, 197, HWY (maybe)...no champs

 

[jack66]

I was drinking the kool-aid early in the season. Not that I thought we were favorites to win, but I did believe we had a fighters chance. That though was based on the hope the Freshmen would show round of 12 ability by the end of the season ... that hasn't happened. Right now all 4 are borderline qualifiers.

It doesn't help either that the Altons don't appear to be ready.

The way I see it we have 3 high AAs and three borderline AAs ... it's a longshot anyone else reaches round of 12. Maybe good enough for 3rd at nationals, but more likely somewhere 4 - 7.

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

I'm rooting hard for PSU to finishing "in the money" i.e. the top four. Given the youth of the team and injuries to the Altons, that would be a tremendous accomplishment. Looking forward to it!

 

[Cowbell Man]

I agree BSD is pretty conservative. I'd almost place 2-3 past those. Moss will be inside the number of AQ spots earning one himself, but of course needs to wrestle to win them. He will be ranked in the top 29 by the coaches, some quality wins and a good RPI will earn a spot. Grothus' rumored drop to 141 will steal one of those spots, but I expect we will qualify all 10 wrestlers.

What happens once they get there is another story, but we are sending all 10 in my opinion.

 

[dicemen99]

From what is being posted on HR doubtful that Grothus is going 141. I think they are all going now except 157 and 141 is probably going to have to wrestle to the spot he qualifies.