Top 4 Percentage Potential

[GogglesPaizano]

Salivating durning our week of downtime. Call me a homer but look at my conservative ''opinion" of our % chances of having wrestlers as AA and Top 4 in each weight class. Baring injury it could be the best team ever, maybe not in total points but in overall top to bottom strength.

Weight Wrestler AA% Top 4%

125 Teske 15% 0%
133 RBY 60% 5%
141 Lee 98% 80%
149 Berge 60% 10%
157 Nolf 99% 99%
165 Joseph 99% 98%
174 Hall 99% 98%
184 Rasheed 98% 80%
197 Nickal 99% 99%
285 Cassar 98% 90%

It's hard to go more bullish on Berge and RBY lacking some matches with ranked opponents, but the potential to surprise is there. Berge gets a slightly higher top 4 simply due to the crazy depth at 133. I think we all see where Shak and Cassar are right now. I wanted to assign 100% but some sensitivities were to fragile to deal with it.

That's 9 likely AAs, and 7 highly likely to guaranteed Top 4s. Unless the Earth stops spinning on its axis multiple national champions once again. Anything is possible in the finals, just ask Bo, but I would say we are in the range of 3-6 potential national champs. Wow!

 

[CholleyVandine]

There’s not a wrestler in the country whose odds of finishing top 4 are 100 percent.

 

[johnstownsteel]

There’s not a wrestler in the country whose odds of finishing top 4 are 100 percent.

I’m almost ready to say Nolf could become decapitated and still finish top 4.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

There’s not a wrestler in the country whose odds of finishing top 4 are 100 percent.

Ok, Nolf = 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%

 

[johnstownsteel]

Ok, Nolf = 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%

You forgot several 9’s...

 

[pointingdogsrule]

Ok, Nolf = 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%

Is that with one leg or two legs?

 

[dmm53]

Methinks, those percentages are a bit too high for AA-ing at 133, 141, and 149.

Just being realistic (not pessimistic).

Strange draws occur. Head-scratching seeds happen. Odd matchups develop. Guys get caught. Some on the team may be dealing with injuries. Bad calls are made. Opponents get hot. Etcetera (the etcetera is important).

Last year, Lee was pinned in his first match, but to his great credit he fought back for an AA.

Would love to see all 10 guys AA and 6 guys in the final. That would a fine tournament and great last day of wrestling.

First things first though: they all need to come into BIGs with good records, solid seeds, and then qualify for Nationals.

Then, lights, camera, action!

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Is that with one leg or two legs?

That was an overall percentage. With a missing leg or arm, I would remove a couple of 9s at the end.

 

[nitlion6]

I’m almost ready to say Nolf could become decapitated and still finish top 4.

He could recertify at 149. That would let Berge bump to a more comfortable 157 and just think of Micah's response. There would be a new elimination match in Columbus to see who got 157 and who had to wrestle 149.

 

[Cowbell Man]

Lol. Odds of Nolf losing 2 matches.....

Let’s bring that number back to 100% of being in top 4.

 

[diggerpup]

Methinks, those percentages are a bit too high for AA-ing at 133, 141, and 149.

Just being realistic (not pessimistic).

Strange draws occur. Head-scratching seeds happen. Odd matchups develop. Guys get caught. Some on the team may be dealing with injuries. Bad calls are made. Opponents get hot. Etcetera (the etcetera is important).

Last year, Lee was pinned in his first match, but to his great credit he fought back for an AA.

Would love to see all 10 guys AA and 6 guys in the final. That would a fine tournament and great last day of wrestling.

First things first though: they all need to come into BIGs with good records, solid seeds, and then qualify for Nationals.

Then, lights, camera, action!

Great point.

Iowa’s Marinelli is a perfect example.

Undefeated thru last year regular season. Defeated defending champ VJ on Joseph’s “Self 6”.
15-0 record.
Big FLO & message board argument whether Bull or IMar deserved the 1 seed at Big Tens.


What did Marinelli do with it ?

Lost 3 matches in B1Gs to take 6th.

Lost 3 more matches at NCAAs to take 6th.

Still a fine freshman season, but ...

 

[jmadden1998]

Lol. Odds of Nolf losing 2 matches.....

Let’s bring that number back to 100% of being in top 4.

He’s not going to lose two matches but to be 100% you would have to know for certainty that he wouldn’t get injured

 

[GogglesPaizano]

There’s not a wrestler in the country whose odds of finishing top 4 are 100 percent.

Whatever.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

He could recertify at 149. That would let Berge bump to a more comfortable 157 and just think of Micah's response. There would be a new elimination match in Volumbus to see who got 157 and who had to wrestle 149.

Hell, without HIS melon, he could fill in 125

 

[SRATH]

That was an overall percentage. With a missing leg or arm, I would remove a couple of 9s at the end.

Pat Santoro......”watchout for the Winn Dixie.....”

 

[nitlion6]

Hell, without HIS melon, he could fill in 125

Human head weighs 10 - 12 pounds. Gruesome detail I was sidestepping.

 

[johnstownsteel]

Human head weighs 10 - 12 pounds. Gruesome detail I was sidestepping.

So as a group think tank here, we’ve concluded Jason IS human?

Just wanna be clear...

 

[nitlion6]

So as a group think tank here, we’ve concluded Jason IS human?

Just wanna be clear...

Not enough data, but sometimes to draw a conclusion assumptions are necessary. I assumed human or not, similar densities.

 

[johnstownsteel]

Not enough data, but sometimes to draw a conclusion assumptions are necessary. I assumed human or not, similar densities.

Ok gotcha. I’ll refrain from updating my notes for now then...

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Not enough data, but sometimes to draw a conclusion assumptions are necessary. I assumed human or not, similar densities.

You do know what happens when you ASSUME, doncha?

 

[WildTurk]

Salivating durning our week of downtime. Call me a homer but look at my conservative ''opinion" of our % chances of having wrestlers as AA and Top 4 in each weight class. Baring injury it could be the best team ever, maybe not in total points but in overall top to bottom strength.

Weight Wrestler AA% Top 4%

125 Teske 15% 0%
133 RBY 60% 5%
141 Lee 98% 80%
149 Berge 60% 10%
157 Nolf 99% 99%
165 Joseph 99% 98%
174 Hall 99% 98%
184 Rasheed 98% 80%
197 Nickal 99% 99%
285 Cassar 98% 90%

It's hard to go more bullish on Berge and RBY lacking some matches with ranked opponents, but the potential to surprise is there. Berge gets a slightly higher top 4 simply due to the crazy depth at 133. I think we all see where Shak and Cassar are right now. I wanted to assign 100% but some sensitivities were to fragile to deal with it.

That's 9 likely AAs, and 7 highly likely to guaranteed Top 4s. Unless the Earth stops spinning on its axis multiple national champions once again. Anything is possible in the finals, just ask Bo, but I would say we are in the range of 3-6 potential national champs. Wow!

Did you get those numbers from a 5 inch Binder?

 

[86PSUPaul]

I thought the generally accepted binder size was 3 inches, has the arms race started in binder size now also? Or are we starting to inflate binder size?

But, does size really matter?

 

[GogglesPaizano]

Did you get those numbers from a 5 inch Binder?

I have seen Tom's binder. While he was doing somersaults durning last year's match between the Bull and Cenzo it dropped off his chair and fell to the floor open. From start to finish every page was chock-full of all the recruits he had missed on, nothing else.