I got around to running WrestleSim for the 2025 tournament. After 10,000 realizations and 3 hours of computer time Penn State did not have a single second place finish. DraftKings was offering them at -5000 last I looked, which for a 3-day wager would return 243% annulized. That could generate some serious cash for the NIL fund!
The projected order of finish is PSU (186), Iowa (79), OkSt (68), VT(68), Minn(65), Neb(65), all others less than 56.
Other wagers that are +EV are Iowa Top 3 (-200, +9.5%), VT Top 3 (+250, +22%), VT Top 5 (-120), and Minn Top 5 (+100). Now given the ACC's recent tournament performances and Iowa's peaking in about mid-January, tread cautiously with those wagers. The one I like best is Minn Top5, they have the safety of Gable combined with McEnelly - it looks like the best bet. If you take betting advice from a random internet person you assume all risk, though I will take all credit when you win.
Some other random probabilities:
The Brand Brothers and some other coaches going full on Dunning-Kruger and yelling instructions to wrestlers thinking the opponet is deaf: 100%
Coach Manning throwing a brick within 1 minute of the first match (even when his wrestler is not involved): 47%
Ferrari for doing the full bird splits: 62%
A Braunagel brother using old man strength to beat someone they shouldn't: 85%
UFF
The projected order of finish is PSU (186), Iowa (79), OkSt (68), VT(68), Minn(65), Neb(65), all others less than 56.
Other wagers that are +EV are Iowa Top 3 (-200, +9.5%), VT Top 3 (+250, +22%), VT Top 5 (-120), and Minn Top 5 (+100). Now given the ACC's recent tournament performances and Iowa's peaking in about mid-January, tread cautiously with those wagers. The one I like best is Minn Top5, they have the safety of Gable combined with McEnelly - it looks like the best bet. If you take betting advice from a random internet person you assume all risk, though I will take all credit when you win.
Some other random probabilities:
The Brand Brothers and some other coaches going full on Dunning-Kruger and yelling instructions to wrestlers thinking the opponet is deaf: 100%
Coach Manning throwing a brick within 1 minute of the first match (even when his wrestler is not involved): 47%
Ferrari for doing the full bird splits: 62%
A Braunagel brother using old man strength to beat someone they shouldn't: 85%
UFF
