Penn State's 2023 NCAA Chances (aka Firing Up the Diesel Generator)

[pointingdogsrule]

Two things are going on here at the same time.

First, I increased the likelihood of Spencer winning and bonusing his opponents because he clearly isn't a "regular" #1 seed. With that said, you have to be careful about guarantees in anything and especially in sports. All of these wrestlers are alpha^2 and it only takes a thumb getting wrenched or something like that to make a super #1 into a regular #1. Very curious to see if Glory makes it the finals and if that is a match.

Second, there are not an infinite number of places/points. If certain wrestlers are likely to get high places then the remainder have to fight for the scraps. The variance in the results of the base model is because you can have a #10 finish #2, that is a big point change. But if the top guys at a weight are really strong, that #10 has a very low chance of getting #2.

The base shows PSU 1, Iowa 2/3/4, Cornell 2/3/4, Nebraska/NCST/Missouri 3/4. I think the results are tighter than this. This isn't factoring in how well PSU top 4 guys do at NCAAs, which is clearly not rainbow unicorn misinformation.

Here are a few other interesting facts from last year for context:

74% of top 8 seeds placed
95% of 1/2 seeds placed
90% of 3/4 seeds placed
65% of 5/6 seeds placed
45% of 7/8 seeds placed

Take seeds and add up points? Doesn't work that way!

Net additions/subtractions to placing by conference:
Big Ten +4, ACC +2, Pac12 +2, EIWA 0, SCon -1, MAC -3, Big 12 -4

Net additions/subtractions by Big 10 Team:
Nebraska +4, NW +3, Rutger +1, Minn +1, MSU -1, Mich -2, Iowa -2

It doesn't all go chalk but usually adds/subtracts mostly even out unless there is bias in seeds (which there can be) or in preparation and wrestling style. There are some that really don't like Penn State and they do everything in their power to try to put them down, you see it in some rankings following a loss or how they handle Penn State FR compared to other FR. It really is funny, because all it does is make them look stupid in the end. The ranking doesn't impact how good or bad the wrestler actually is.

From above you would say you don't want to face Big 10 wrestlers and you do want to face MAC and Big 12. A team that knows how to peak will consistently outperform a team that doesn't know how to. Finally, I think style matters more at NCAAs especially for lower seeded guys. A defensive #9 seed is probably going to lose to a #1 seed 97 times out of 100. But a guy that can hit a 6-point move may lose 80%. He may lose by more points, but it doesn't matter how many points you lose by when you are trying to place!

Ducking (sorry as you can tell I really hate this for the sport, especially because it clearly does not work): As a coach if you hide your wrestlers from the tough guys during the season, now what? Are you just saying that the other coach is superior to you, and he will out coach you given intel? I really don't get it. And yelling instructions during matches! It is too late unless in special circumstances because the other wrestler and coach can hear your instructions too!

I like most of Penn State's draws just fine. I think some of Iowa's are tough. Regarding Dean, yes, he has Allred who he just lost to. 197 is a meat grinder and the Big Ten is not as strong at this weight. The best predictor of NCAA tournament success is winning percentage against Top 16 and Top 8. Dean is 76% the last two years where Allred is 50%. If Dean gets a takedown Allred has no idea if he can get out or if he will get turned. Big advantage Dean. In addition, if he were to lose to Allred (I would tip my cap to the young man) I could easily see Dean wrestle back to 3rd. His expected points being a #9 aren't very many, keep this in mind.

Going to be FUN!

Do you’re saying…. As a #3 seed, Brooks only has a 90% chance of placing??? Note: sarcasm 😉😉

 

[Brian LB-U]

@Unbiased_football_fan ’s 2024 SIM calculator now that Bernie is in the fold.

 

[KCLion]

@Unbiased_football_fan ’s 2024 SIM calculator now that Bernie AND NAGAO (soon) in the fold.

Fixed

 

[tullfan68]

LOL PSU had it locked up for next yr and the end of this season!!

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

With everything that has been going on this offseason I have not had a chance to post how WrestleSim did. Quite an adventure. Read on......

This is from the base simulation which isn't the most accurate. It had 1-PSU, 2-Iowa, 3-Cornell, 4-Nebraska. Not too bad, but the problem was Penn State. Penn State is ALWAYS the problem. At +35 points Penn State was more than the 99.9 percentile. I saw the result and I was shocked, stunned even. I felt an unblinding rage building inside until I simply couldn't contain it anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I tore off my Mfer computer glasses and crumbled them into a pile of dust! I'll show those bastards!!!!! Wait, now I couldn't see. What am I supposed to do now?????????

You know they say if you put enough monkeys in a room with enough typewriters that one will write Shakespeare? This is actually false. You end up with a room full of broken typewriters with monkey feces and urine all over them (GIA). But I digress. Still very pissed, I decided to test this theory and code feverishly to find out what was wrong. Apparently, I did create something, because shortly thereafter UFF-GPT sent 250 BTC to both Bernie Truax and Aaron Nagao! Long live the King! We Are!

UFF

#AmishCucumber6

 

[Cali_Nittany]

With everything that has been going on this offseason I have not had a chance to post how WrestleSim did. Quite an adventure. Read on......

This is from the base simulation which isn't the most accurate. It had 1-PSU, 2-Iowa, 3-Cornell, 4-Nebraska. Not too bad, but the problem was Penn State. Penn State is ALWAYS the problem. At +35 points Penn State was more than the 99.9 percentile. I saw the result and I was shocked, stunned even. I felt an unblinding rage building inside until I simply couldn't contain it anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I tore off my Mfer computer glasses and crumbled them into a pile of dust! I'll show those bastards!!!!! Wait, now I couldn't see. What am I supposed to do now?????????

You know they say if you put enough monkeys in a room with enough typewriters that one will write Shakespeare? This is actually false. You end up with a room full of broken typewriters with monkey feces and urine all over them (GIA). But I digress. Still very pissed, I decided to test this theory and code feverishly to find out what was wrong. Apparently, I did create something, because shortly thereafter UFF-GPT sent 250 BTC to both Bernie Truax and Aaron Nagao! Long live the King! We Are!

UFF

#AmishCucumber6

I'll take the over on 5.9 AAs for Penn State.

Edit: It was impressive how much Penn State finished above or no more than 1 off seed.

133 1-2
141 6-3
149 12-3
157 2-2
165 13-DNP
174 1-1
184 1-1
197 9-7
H 3-2

 

[GogglesPaizano]

Hard to believe next year, barring injury, we will be even better.

It seems the switch we have all been waiting for with Beau has indeed flipped. His performance against Nick in Free was impressive. SVN finally let it loose as well. Both transfers will have goals of getting to the finals for sure. No matter the mix at 157/165, we will be looking outstanding. To be honest the biggest unknown is Robbie, and if his shoulder holds together he's going to be right there too.

It's a lifetime between May and March, but all of the glass half full people are drinking 10 AAs and 5 champs right now, and to be honest the glass half empty people should be right there with them.

 

[baccafarmer]

With everything that has been going on this offseason I have not had a chance to post how WrestleSim did. Quite an adventure. Read on......

This is from the base simulation which isn't the most accurate. It had 1-PSU, 2-Iowa, 3-Cornell, 4-Nebraska. Not too bad, but the problem was Penn State. Penn State is ALWAYS the problem. At +35 points Penn State was more than the 99.9 percentile. I saw the result and I was shocked, stunned even. I felt an unblinding rage building inside until I simply couldn't contain it anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I tore off my Mfer computer glasses and crumbled them into a pile of dust! I'll show those bastards!!!!! Wait, now I couldn't see. What am I supposed to do now?????????

You know they say if you put enough monkeys in a room with enough typewriters that one will write Shakespeare? This is actually false. You end up with a room full of broken typewriters with monkey feces and urine all over them (GIA). But I digress. Still very pissed, I decided to test this theory and code feverishly to find out what was wrong. Apparently, I did create something, because shortly thereafter UFF-GPT sent 250 BTC to both Bernie Truax and Aaron Nagao! Long live the King! We Are!

UFF

#AmishCucumber6

A more cogent analysis I have never seen …. especially concerning the monkeys.

 

[Ja1339]

@Unbiased_football_fan , any chance your simulator could be deployed to settle the argument of who would have won the championship that was canceled by COVID?

Love your work!

 

[hlstone]

@Unbiased_football_fan , any chance your simulator could be deployed to settle the argument of who would have won the championship that was canceled by COVID?

Love your work!

Some questions are better left unanswered.

 

[hlstone]

It is that time of year where I dust off WrestleSim and see what it is telling us. Official seeds will be out tomorrow so I will update. This is a teaser for the more complete analysis to come.

Myth 1: No, you do not need eight scoring wrestlers and no I am not going to meet you on a bridge to fight about it.

Myth 2: No, you do not need 20 bonus points and no I am not going to meet you under a bridge to fight about it, but I will meet you on a bridge to fight.

Myth 3: Underseeding hurts the underseeded wrestler. Overseeding helps the overseeded wrestler.

Before people get all worked up about seeding, it doesn't impact the results all that much. Only in RARE circumstances (channeling my inner bird with the CAPS!) is the underseeded wrestler affected negatively. It mostly affects his lower ranked opponents and can block a guy from wrestling back to place that otherwise would have made it. Upsets of highly ranked wrestlers matters far more, especially if a guy gets his act together once he is knocked to the backside. Overseeding hurts the overseeded wrestler, it doesn't help him. These coaches that play seeding games and endorse match ducking, totally ass backwards.

QUIZ: Which Penn State match/wrestler showed a tactic to defeat the "rider" who continually runs his guy off the mat? I noticed it and the tactic was beautiful. Hopefully when widely deployed it will eliminate this behavior from the sport. A friend suggested a fix - you get 30 seconds to ride and if you don't get a turn, back to your feet and no escape point. I like this idea. I also like 3 points for a takedown to encourage more neutral action (Or would it? would a guy with the lead shut down the offense and go on defense). I don't know but anything that prevents riding with no turns and neutral with no shots is good in my book. Not everyone can be Andonian but I wish they would try more.

Penn State this year is a heavy favorite (duh). The base model using Intermat's rankings as seeds has (to win) PSU 98.4%, Iowa 1.0%, Missouri 0.4%, Cornell 0.3%, and ISU 0.1%. Everyone else gets the Blutarsky 0.00. This was based on 1,000 realizations of the probabilistic model. The more accurate simulation where adjustments are made to account for some top seeds being heavier favorites than other top seeds has the results shown below. A bit counter intuitive because you may think "Spencer Lee is a lock, the Hawks' chances should go up" but it doesn't work that way because the chances of the lower ranked wrestlers pulling the upset (think #10 seed winning and getting 20 points instead of ~3 points) gets eliminated/reduced. The Hawks chance of second goes up from about 42% to 62% but their chance of first goes down.

UFF

Was this nominated for POTY?

I forget who to #or @ this to.

 

[nerfstate]

Was this nominated for POTY?

I forget who to #or @ this to.

@backdrft76

 

[bourbon n blues]

I see ten potential AAs, eight possible finalists and six champs on my way early guess.

Worst case? 3-3, 3-2 in finals , 8AAs would be that guess.

 

[hlstone]

@backdrft76

Thanks Nerf! 🐳

 

[backdrft76]

Was this nominated for POTY?

I forget who to #or @ this to.

Got it. @nerfstate

 

[mcpat]

 

[GogglesPaizano]

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No need to rush, we'll see you in November!

 

[tullfan68]

if Beau wrestles folk this yr like he did freestyle he can beat anyone!