Before running through the numbers I thought Iowa would be hands down favorites next year in the neighborhood of a 15-20 point cushion. I love the fact that the 2019 returning champs are spread so evenly there is less room for a decided concentration of power at the top.
As you know I remain with my toe testing the waters of a mass red shirt....however I took my partially educated look at total points next year and unless I am totally off base we are looking stronger than at least I had expected. I also ignored Oly red shirts so both Hall and Spencer are going. That said, I remain convinced if Hall shirts and Cassar passes on his 6th, we punt.
I remain very cautiously optimistic that Verk and Berge will surprise, but given what I have seen so far I chose not to place either of them them above the R8 for this excercise. Maybe 8 pounds will really help Berge as we all hope, but I don't think that converts him into a bonus machine. Likewise I'll go with Conel as a semi guy until I see a half a season with the healthy shoulder. I actually see more points (especially bonus) potential for both Beard and Brooks right out of the gate but I will ignore them for now.
Iowa is super deep with top level talent so if they breakout and send 3-4-5+ to the finals it will be a done deal for them, but for now I say no.
I am playing very conservative for our guys so don't crucify me for my RBY, Lee, Berge, Shak, Verk ratings just yet. Do I think RBY can/should break through next year? Yes, but for the sake of this take not yet. Do I know that 141 clears out a bit maybe with a Yanni Oly - yes. In short i wanted to keep a bit of a homerless view of our total. In contrast I looked at Iowa through more rose colored lenses but was a little tough in a few spots like Wilke and Warner.
I also try to ignore bonus points until the end and simply give a generic average for placement and advancement with a small tweak here and there - this is where my system will get picked apart but I am up for it so go ahead and run your own numbers. Without Bo, Nolf and Zain for that matter our bonus potential falls off a bit of a cliff - another area where I remain cautiously optimistic that I will get surprised, but without further evidence, I think Iowa can out pace us here by a wide margin maybe even 2x.
In essence I take an approx average for each place - (a finalist gets 22). What I do here is equate Hall, VJ, Cassar to Spencer, knowing that Spencer with Bonus might be 27 points and a 2nd place might get only 16-18. Some of this is corrected out with the "team" bonus points at the end which is a combination of outright bonus points earned and correction for only mapping in the round level and not the specific place i.e 5th vs 8th.
Thus:
"averages"
Finalist = 22 Points
R4 = 15 Points
R8 = 7 Points
Top 12 = 3 Points
R16 = 1.5 Points
Iowa Place Points PSU Place Points
Spencer F 22 Teske R16 1.5
Desanto R4 15 RBY R8 7
Murin R8 7 Lee R4 15
Lugo R4 15 Verk R8 7
Young R4 15 Berge R8 7
Marinelli R4 15 VJ F 22
Kemerer R4 15 Hall F 22
Wilke R16 1.5 Shak R8 7
Warner R8 7 Conel R4 15
Cassiopi R8 7 Cassar F 22
Subtotal 119.5 125.5
Team Add'l Bonus 15+ 10
Grand total 134.5 135.5
I did not purposely try to make it close and will admit my model is flawed as I think next year 110-120 points takes it all, but I would not be surprised to see Iowa take 6 into the semis to our 5 and having them out bonus us like they did in 2018.
On balance this pencils out much better than I perceived and given I have basically ignored Cael's magic with our returning Sophomores in particular, we are looking pretty damned solid.
Hall hail Ceasar we need you champs!
As you know I remain with my toe testing the waters of a mass red shirt....however I took my partially educated look at total points next year and unless I am totally off base we are looking stronger than at least I had expected. I also ignored Oly red shirts so both Hall and Spencer are going. That said, I remain convinced if Hall shirts and Cassar passes on his 6th, we punt.
I remain very cautiously optimistic that Verk and Berge will surprise, but given what I have seen so far I chose not to place either of them them above the R8 for this excercise. Maybe 8 pounds will really help Berge as we all hope, but I don't think that converts him into a bonus machine. Likewise I'll go with Conel as a semi guy until I see a half a season with the healthy shoulder. I actually see more points (especially bonus) potential for both Beard and Brooks right out of the gate but I will ignore them for now.
Iowa is super deep with top level talent so if they breakout and send 3-4-5+ to the finals it will be a done deal for them, but for now I say no.
I am playing very conservative for our guys so don't crucify me for my RBY, Lee, Berge, Shak, Verk ratings just yet. Do I think RBY can/should break through next year? Yes, but for the sake of this take not yet. Do I know that 141 clears out a bit maybe with a Yanni Oly - yes. In short i wanted to keep a bit of a homerless view of our total. In contrast I looked at Iowa through more rose colored lenses but was a little tough in a few spots like Wilke and Warner.
I also try to ignore bonus points until the end and simply give a generic average for placement and advancement with a small tweak here and there - this is where my system will get picked apart but I am up for it so go ahead and run your own numbers. Without Bo, Nolf and Zain for that matter our bonus potential falls off a bit of a cliff - another area where I remain cautiously optimistic that I will get surprised, but without further evidence, I think Iowa can out pace us here by a wide margin maybe even 2x.
In essence I take an approx average for each place - (a finalist gets 22). What I do here is equate Hall, VJ, Cassar to Spencer, knowing that Spencer with Bonus might be 27 points and a 2nd place might get only 16-18. Some of this is corrected out with the "team" bonus points at the end which is a combination of outright bonus points earned and correction for only mapping in the round level and not the specific place i.e 5th vs 8th.
Thus:
"averages"
Finalist = 22 Points
R4 = 15 Points
R8 = 7 Points
Top 12 = 3 Points
R16 = 1.5 Points
Iowa Place Points PSU Place Points
Spencer F 22 Teske R16 1.5
Desanto R4 15 RBY R8 7
Murin R8 7 Lee R4 15
Lugo R4 15 Verk R8 7
Young R4 15 Berge R8 7
Marinelli R4 15 VJ F 22
Kemerer R4 15 Hall F 22
Wilke R16 1.5 Shak R8 7
Warner R8 7 Conel R4 15
Cassiopi R8 7 Cassar F 22
Subtotal 119.5 125.5
Team Add'l Bonus 15+ 10
Grand total 134.5 135.5
I did not purposely try to make it close and will admit my model is flawed as I think next year 110-120 points takes it all, but I would not be surprised to see Iowa take 6 into the semis to our 5 and having them out bonus us like they did in 2018.
On balance this pencils out much better than I perceived and given I have basically ignored Cael's magic with our returning Sophomores in particular, we are looking pretty damned solid.
Hall hail Ceasar we need you champs!
