Why exactly is ND favored?

[ryoder1]

Not by a lot but Vegas thinks they will win and I assume a decent amount of "experts" also think this.

Wondering what is it exactly that gives them the edge? I think we could just as easily be favored by 1.5 points.

Is it their defense?
Carter not being 100%?
Franklin factor?

Their offense is nothing great from what I have seen. They don't have a Caleb Downs to matchup with Warren.

I guess they think their front 7 will be better than our OLine and their offense can do just enough especially without Carter being 100% (full disclosure: total speculation on Carter).

 

[mgkpsu]

Sometimes spreads are set to entice betting.

 

[Ian]

It’s all about the Franklins…. It’s a toss up.

 

[lazydave841]

Simply put, they have the better win.

UGA still has "championship caliber" written all over them. ND just beat them by 13.

 

[SUPERTODD]

Sometimes spreads are set to entice betting.

All the time spreads are set to entice betting. Vegas isn’t picking who they think is going to win. They want as much money as possible evenly distributed between the two teams. It’s a science.

 

[Obliviax]

Tegewell (sp?) says they have the best OL in college ball.

 

[LandoComando]

Simply put, they have the better win.

UGA still has "championship caliber" written all over them. ND just beat them by 13.

Correct--they beat Georgia
We've beat SMU, Illinois and Boise State
We get to prove it on the field so who cares who is expected to win--just win

 

[lazydave841]

Tegewell (sp?) says they have the best OL in college ball.

It would be hard to argue with him. They've kept great lines for the better part of 10 years.

Still, GaTech manufacturered 3x the amount of yardage on them. Ole Miss too. Bama wasn't stopped for 2 quarters. ND struggled to move the ball and won primarily with an old school Paterno-style defense, turnovers, special teams and an offense that doesn't kill momentum.

That bodes well, in my book, for us. I don't think they replicate that thrice. We move the ball on them.

 

[NoBareFeet]

Because the betting public would bet heavy on ND if they weren't. It's as simple as that.

 

[bcspsu]

It would be hard to argue with him. They've kept great lines for the better part of 10 years.

Still, GaTech manufacturered 3x the amount of yardage on them. Ole Miss too. Bama wasn't stopped for 2 quarters. ND struggled to move the ball and won primarily with an old school Paterno-style defense, turnovers, special teams and an offense that doesn't kill momentum.

That bodes well, in my book, for us. I don't think they replicate that thrice. We move the ball on them.

I don’t want to diminish ND’s win, because they beat a team that’s very hard to beat even if they never really lived up to their hype after the Clemson game. Also, I accept that UGA has a good defense. However, while acknowledging that turnovers and special teams are a part of the game, UGA gave ND 14 points with the fumble at the of the first half and the kickoff return at the beginning of the second half, and also lost at least 3 points and maybe seven by fumbling earlier in the first half. That’s at least a 17 point differential that could’ve been prevented. If PSU can avoid those mistakes, they should be fine. PSU already has played two better teams than ND.

 

[LandoComando]

Tegewell (sp?) says they have the best OL in college ball.

ND does?
Georgia has 3 guys that are going to be day 1 or 2 picks this year--so, I don't know about that
Very good OL though but I don't think they're the best

 

[bcspsu]

ND does?
Georgia has 3 guys that are going to be day 1 or 2 picks this year--so, I don't know about that
Very good OL though but I don't think they're the best

I respect his opinion; he’s a very good analyst. However, is their o-line playing better than PSU’s o-line right now? I know that we gave up several sacks and pressures against Boise, but I blame that on poor play calling. The PSU o-line has been mashing teams lately, including Oregon and two playoff teams.

 

[ryoder1]

I respect his opinion; he’s a very good analyst. However, is their o-line playing better than PSU’s o-line right now? I know that we gave up several sacks and pressures against Boise, but I blame that on poor play calling. The PSU o-line has been mashing teams lately, including Oregon and two playoff teams.

Run blocking is key. If they can do that well next Thursday then I think we have a great shot.

 

[LandoComando]

I respect his opinion; he’s a very good analyst. However, is their o-line playing better than PSU’s o-line right now? I know that we gave up several sacks and pressures against Boise, but I blame that on poor play calling. The PSU o-line has been mashing teams lately, including Oregon and two playoff teams.

I think our OL is every bit as good as their line. We're going to get pressured more because of the offense we run. ND's line isn't typically asked to block more than 2 to 2.5 seconds in the pass game. We have a very different offense.

Penn State and Notre Dame are similar on paper--it will be interesting to see what separates the teams

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Not by a lot but Vegas thinks they will win and I assume a decent amount of "experts" also think this.

Wondering what is it exactly that gives them the edge? I think we could just as easily be favored by 1.5 points.

Is it their defense?
Carter not being 100%?
Franklin factor?

Their offense is nothing great from what I have seen. They don't have a Caleb Downs to matchup with Warren.

I guess they think their front 7 will be better than our OLine and their offense can do just enough especially without Carter being 100% (full disclosure: total speculation on Carter).

They are on a 12 game win streak and one of the nation's best Defenses (#2 in Points Allowed - only duhO$U better. #8 in Total Defense, 295 mpg. #5 Passing Defense 167 ypg. #3 TO Margin....).

ND's Scoring Defense is extremely impressive through 14 games. Hard not to like their chances in a low scoring affair as their defense is more of a "shutdown defense" (they're only allowing 167 passing YPG and a nation leading 50% Completion Percentage). PSU has a very good run defense coupled with more of a "bend but don't break" Pass Defense that allows a much higher Comp Pct... and has given up almost 50% more TD passes and more PPG.

The other thing that is tough to evaluate is how PSU's Run Defense will hold up with Leonard. Leonard is ND's second leading rusher with 831 yards on 149 carries (5.6 ypc). PSU has had problems with dual-threat QBs in the past.

If PSU's Offense plays like it has at times this year against the best defenses they've played, we could be in trouble as it would imply a super low-scoring game.... and I'd give ND the advantage in a super low-scoring game as ST's play and PPG Surrendered favor ND.

 

[GreatBasinNit]

Not by a lot but Vegas thinks they will win and I assume a decent amount of "experts" also think this.

Wondering what is it exactly that gives them the edge? I think we could just as easily be favored by 1.5 points.

Is it their defense?
Carter not being 100%?
Franklin factor?

Their offense is nothing great from what I have seen. They don't have a Caleb Downs to matchup with Warren.

I guess they think their front 7 will be better than our OLine and their offense can do just enough especially without Carter being 100% (full disclosure: total speculation on Carter).

Just to reiterate what many have already said, sportsbooks are in the money making business, not the prediction business.

My guess is they want the suckers to hammer ND -1.5 to offset the sharps.

 

[mgkpsu]

They are on a 12 game win streak and one of the nation's best Defenses (#2 in Points Allowed - only duhO$U better. #8 in Total Defense, 295 mpg. #5 Passing Defense 167 ypg. #3 TO Margin....).

ND's Scoring Defense is extremely impressive through 14 games. Hard not to like their chances in a low scoring affair as their defense is more of a "shutdown defense" (they're only allowing 167 passing YPG and a nation leading 50% Completion Percentage). PSU has a very good run defense coupled with more of a "bend but don't break" Pass Defense that allows a much higher Comp Pct... and has given up almost 50% more TD passes and more PPG.

The other thing that is tough to evaluate is how PSU's Run Defense will hold up with Leonard. Leonard is ND's second leading rusher with 831 yards on 149 carries (5.6 ypc). PSU has had problems with dual-threat QBs in the past.

If PSU's Offense plays like it has at times this year against the best defenses they've played, we could be in trouble as it would imply a super low-scoring game.... and I'd give ND the advantage in a super low-scoring game as ST's play and PPG Surrendered favor ND.

Your stats mean nothing without the context of the quality of competition faced.

And when has PSU "had problems with dual-threat QBs"?

 

[mgkpsu]

They are on a 12 game win streak and one of the nation's best Defenses (#2 in Points Allowed - only duhO$U better. #8 in Total Defense, 295 mpg. #5 Passing Defense 167 ypg. #3 TO Margin....).

ND's Scoring Defense is extremely impressive through 14 games. Hard not to like their chances in a low scoring affair as their defense is more of a "shutdown defense" (they're only allowing 167 passing YPG and a nation leading 50% Completion Percentage). PSU has a very good run defense coupled with more of a "bend but don't break" Pass Defense that allows a much higher Comp Pct... and has given up almost 50% more TD passes and more PPG.

The other thing that is tough to evaluate is how PSU's Run Defense will hold up with Leonard. Leonard is ND's second leading rusher with 831 yards on 149 carries (5.6 ypc). PSU has had problems with dual-threat QBs in the past.

If PSU's Offense plays like it has at times this year against the best defenses they've played, we could be in trouble as it would imply a super low-scoring game.... and I'd give ND the advantage in a super low-scoring game as ST's play and PPG Surrendered favor ND.

And Notre Dame has had a lot of field goal kicking issues this season.

And Thompson (not my favorite Punter, but he was downright good against Oregon and Boise) is 1.1 yards better than James Rendell.

Honestly, what is the basis for the things you say on here? Because they ran back a kick a few days ago?

 

[LandoComando]

And Notre Dame has had a lot of field goal kicking issues this season.

And Thompson (not my favorite Punter, but he was downright good against Oregon and Boise) is 1.1 yards better than James Rendell.

Honestly, what is the basis for the things you say on here? Because they ran back a kick a few days ago?

Jeter had a rough stretch earlier in the year (I believe he was hurt) but he was great at USCe and went 3-3 all from over 40 against UGa
Riley was very good against Boise and Oregon
But our PR game in non-existent and I think it's fair to have some concern about our STs

 

[lazydave841]

And Notre Dame has had a lot of field goal kicking issues this season.

From what I understand, the kicker hurt his groin and couldn't kick for shît until it healed. I think he's made 5 or 6 in a row after their final regular season game. Believe he's a transfer (South Carolina I think). He's better than his stats show, but I'm not 100%.

 

[LandoComando]

From what I understand, the kicker hurt his groin and couldn't kick for shît until it healed. I think he's made 5 or 6 in a row after their final regular season game. Believe he's a transfer (South Carolina I think). He's better than his stats show, but I'm not 100%.

I believe he missed 1 against Indiana but yes 100% healthy now and a very good kicker

 

[mgkpsu]

From what I understand, the kicker hurt his groin and couldn't kick for shît until it healed. I think he's made 5 or 6 in a row after their final regular season game. Believe he's a transfer (South Carolina I think). He's better than his stats show, but I'm not 100%.

He missed:
1 vs. Indiana
1 vs. USC
2 vs. Army

I could go back further, but you get the point. He was good against Georgia, but that was the first time since Louisville on 9/28.

And I only went down this rabbit hole due to yoyo's claim that ND is allegedly so superior on special teams.

 

[lazydave841]

He missed:
1 vs. Indiana
1 vs. USC
2 vs. Army

I could go back further, but you get the point. He was good against Georgia, but that was the first time since Louisville on 9/28.

And I only went down this rabbit hole due to yoyo's claim that ND is allegedly so superior on special teams.

Understand complete.

The only thing that's worrisome is punt team. ND will get a block if we don't pay extra attention to that one dude (he hit the UGA kicker twice, has 2 or 3 blocks on the season).

I'd probably scheme another Reynolds fake for that. Use the aggressiveness against them. Minimally, plan the blocking for it!

 

[mgkpsu]

Understand complete.

The only thing that's worrisome is punt team. ND will get a block if we don't pay extra attention to that one dude (he hit the UGA kicker twice, has 2 or 3 blocks on the season).

I'd probably scheme another Reynolds fake for that. Use the aggressiveness against them. Minimally, plan the blocking for it!

He also missed TWO in the NIU game, which made me giggle!

Our Punt alignment for Boise looked quite different to me. Maybe I just didn't notice earlier, or maybe Minnesota had something to do with it.

 

[creamery freak]

Understand complete.

The only thing that's worrisome is punt team. ND will get a block if we don't pay extra attention to that one dude (he hit the UGA kicker twice, has 2 or 3 blocks on the season).

I'd probably scheme another Reynolds fake for that. Use the aggressiveness against them. Minimally, plan the blocking for it!

I'll never understand how that 1st running into the punter wasn't a personal foul. The punters leg was extended and he got hit pretty good. Just my 2 cents.

 

[lazydave841]

He also missed TWO in the NIU game, which made me giggle!

Our Punt alignment for Boise looked quite different to me. Maybe I just didn't notice earlier, or maybe Minnesota had something to do with it.

I noticed he straight away punted vs the rugby rolling right styled kick at least once or twice. That struck me as different too.

 

[Ward Hog]

I think our OL is every bit as good as their line. We're going to get pressured more because of the offense we run. ND's line isn't typically asked to block more than 2 to 2.5 seconds in the pass game. We have a very different offense.

Penn State and Notre Dame are similar on paper--it will be interesting to see what separates the teams

I agree that our O line is as good and has continued to improve as the season has gone on. Warren and Dinkins really add to our ability to move the other team off the ball. Our pulling linemen are finding their men and the backs have learned to let things simmer before hitting the hole. The O linemen are also much better at getting to the second level of the D and at least getting in their way. We are now getting to the supposedly "free" safety or linebacker consistently while we weren't earlier in the year. We are also running at the defense instead of the slow developing plays that we had been earlier in the year.

If you have a hat on the guy, he's not tackling Kaytron. You can see the look of desperation on the cornerbacks and safeties when they are one on one with Allen. He is mean and rugged and gives far more punishment than he receives. If he were one step faster, he'd be the best back in the country. Of course, Singleton is gone if we can give him room. We need to run the ball against ND and wear them out. They aren't big and they aren't deep. this will be low scoring and close in the fourth. We need to beat them then.

 

[Cowbell Man]

Eye test doesn’t have an OL or a QB.

I graduated and was the Lion and Cowbell OG. PSU will win.

BLAM.

 

[bvillebaron]

They are on a 12 game win streak and one of the nation's best Defenses (#2 in Points Allowed - only duhO$U better. #8 in Total Defense, 295 mpg. #5 Passing Defense 167 ypg. #3 TO Margin....).

ND's Scoring Defense is extremely impressive through 14 games. Hard not to like their chances in a low scoring affair as their defense is more of a "shutdown defense" (they're only allowing 167 passing YPG and a nation leading 50% Completion Percentage). PSU has a very good run defense coupled with more of a "bend but don't break" Pass Defense that allows a much higher Comp Pct... and has given up almost 50% more TD passes and more PPG.

The other thing that is tough to evaluate is how PSU's Run Defense will hold up with Leonard. Leonard is ND's second leading rusher with 831 yards on 149 carries (5.6 ypc). PSU has had problems with dual-threat QBs in the past.

If PSU's Offense plays like it has at times this year against the best defenses they've played, we could be in trouble as it would imply a super low-scoring game.... and I'd give ND the advantage in a super low-scoring game as ST's play and PPG Surrendered favor ND.

Yeah ND’s defense was “terrific” against USC a few weeks ago huh?

 

[joeaubie21]

Notre Dumb at PiT 2 yard line set to win. PiT intercepts and goes 98 yards to win.

 

[scrivener]

Yeah ND’s defense was “terrific” against USC a few weeks ago huh?

Lol way to take one game over the aggregate sample size. NDs defense is very stout and physical.

Yeah PSUs defense sucked big time vs Oregon, huh? See how that doesn't work when u take body of work.

 

[fkkkjm]

Didn’t Ohio State show good teams how to beat us? ND has better players than Boise or SMU. If they’re smart, they’ll smother Warren, stack the box, and force our pathetic WR to beat them. The typical morons with supreme confidence as usual.

 

[scrivener]

Didn’t Ohio State show good teams how to beat us? ND has better players than Boise or SMU. If they’re smart, they’ll smother Warren, stack the box, and force our pathetic WR to beat them. The typical morons with supreme confidence as usual.

Landon Tengwalls breakdown of ND says exactly this...schematically both ND and OSU are virtually the same. It requires the WRs to win their matchups (which ours don't) and to find other ways to win when TW is bracketed. Allar needs to be better than his 55% comp pct...I think that's what it is this postseason. Andy K has to be at his best for this one. Last week and the OSU game was a struggle it seemed for him.

This is the kind of game we don't win when u factor in competition level and stakes. I really hope we have turned the corner. Won't believe it until I see it.

 

[bourbon n blues]

Not by a lot but Vegas thinks they will win and I assume a decent amount of "experts" also think this.

Wondering what is it exactly that gives them the edge? I think we could just as easily be favored by 1.5 points.

Is it their defense?
Carter not being 100%?
Franklin factor?

Their offense is nothing great from what I have seen. They don't have a Caleb Downs to matchup with Warren.

I guess they think their front 7 will be better than our OLine and their offense can do just enough especially without Carter being 100% (full disclosure: total speculation on Carter).

Because it'll probably be close. Essentially it's a toss up.

 

[LandoComando]

Landon Tengwalls breakdown of ND says exactly this...schematically both ND and OSU are virtually the same. It requires the WRs to win their matchups (which ours don't) and to find other ways to win when TW is bracketed. Allar needs to be better than his 55% comp pct...I think that's what it is this postseason. Andy K has to be at his best for this one. Last week and the OSU game was a struggle it seemed for him.

This is the kind of game we don't win when u factor in competition level and stakes. I really hope we have turned the corner. Won't believe it until I see it.

So our WRs can't be dropping passes...that easily gets him way over 55%
The reality is...someone other than Warren has to he able to beat man. Wallace will be locked up by Gray which means one of the other 3 need to step up

 

[scrivener]

So our WRs can't be dropping passes...that easily gets him way over 55%
The reality is...someone other than Warren has to he able to beat man. Wallace will be locked up by Gray which means one of the other 3 need to step up

Exactly... And to this point, nobody has beaten their man in these situations and Wallace dropped that touchdown against ohio state that was picked off... and then of course dropped another one last week.

the wide receivers are what they are and for the most part, they are liabilities that can't beat really good defenses.

 

[91Joe95]

Not by a lot but Vegas thinks they will win and I assume a decent amount of "experts" also think this.

Wondering what is it exactly that gives them the edge? I think we could just as easily be favored by 1.5 points.

Is it their defense?
Carter not being 100%?
Franklin factor?

Their offense is nothing great from what I have seen. They don't have a Caleb Downs to matchup with Warren.

I guess they think their front 7 will be better than our OLine and their offense can do just enough especially without Carter being 100% (full disclosure: total speculation on Carter).

ND's subway alumni. They're on fire lately.

 

[SLion]

Simply put, they have the better win.

UGA still has "championship caliber" written all over them. ND just beat them by 13.

I hope PSU plays smarter. Trying to throw at your own 24 yard yard with 39 sec left? It was 6-3. Take knee. ND also got KO TD. Yes, all three phases matter but NDs offense did not have to do a whole lot.

 

[WV Bruno]

Not by a lot but Vegas thinks they will win and I assume a decent amount of "experts" also think this.

Wondering what is it exactly that gives them the edge? I think we could just as easily be favored by 1.5 points.

Is it their defense?
Carter not being 100%?
Franklin factor?

Their offense is nothing great from what I have seen. They don't have a Caleb Downs to matchup with Warren.

I guess they think their front 7 will be better than our OLine and their offense can do just enough especially without Carter being 100% (full disclosure: total speculation on Carter).

They look more athletic across the board. You would not have beaten Georgia like they did.

 

[joeaubie21]

Exactly... And to this point, nobody has beaten their man in these situations and Wallace dropped that touchdown against ohio state that was picked off... and then of course dropped another one last week.

the wide receivers are what they are and for the most part, they are liabilities that can't beat really good defenses.

Exactly... And to this point, nobody has beaten their man in these situations and Wallace dropped that touchdown against ohio state that was picked off... and then of course dropped another one last week.

the wide receivers are what they are and for the most part, they are liabilities that can't beat really good defenses.

)-)

I hope PSU plays smarter. Trying to throw at your own 24 yard yard with 39 sec left? It was 6-3. Take knee. ND also got KO TD. Yes, all three phases matter but NDs offense did not have to do a whole lot.

Once again

They look more athletic across the board. You would not have beaten Georgia like they did.

Fa-wart!