Very few teams take a knee in this era--I don't like the play call but I'd have expected safe play (draw, screen, quick out) to see if they could get 10-20 yards then open it up but we're not taking a knee down 3 with 2 timeouts in that situation.
Why exactly is ND favored?
- Thread starter ryoder1
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Check this out, per the omnipotent ESPN, ND has best odds of winning it all, PSU the least.
ND blitzes like crazy. So if either back gets to the second level they will get 20 yds or more. Singleton could get a couple long ones.
And if we beat the blitz with big runs several times early it may force ND to blitz less, opening the passing game.
So we have no shot of running on them? Doubling Warren leaves opportunities in the run game and also as a decoy for Reynolds and Dinkins. They won't expect much out of Reynolds.. They are not OSU. Kaytron is playing tough and is a load to bring down. We have Singleton out of the backfield as well. Additionally Allar is a lot better than the stiff Georia had out there. It will be a tough game and the O-Line needs to play well but this is definitely a winnable game.
Georgia had two fumbles in the red zone and gave up a kickoff TD. Georgia had no TE and a weak 2nd string QB. Same Georgia who should have lost to Georgia Tech at home.
Las Vegas ought to post betting odds that Franklin will call some numbskull low probability of success, momentum-killing play at some critical point in the game instead of sticking with what is working.
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We don't need much out of the WRs to win. Where it becomes a key factor is if you think they can simultaneously shut down our run game and Warren and not let Singleton get much receiving. If they do all that and the only thing we have is Allar trying to find Wallace while under pressure then of course we lose.
This is what happened vs OSU...couldn't get the running game going consistently and TW was bracketed. The WRs are just bodies.
No No No. That's exhibit C. You must have missed my comment on Herbstreit as the consumate gasbag yesterday
ND is not OSU. OSU had Downs. AK called a bad first half also, didn't give Warren a shot. We should be scheming some plays for Reynolds. He is like a tall WR out there and can win some contested balls with his size. Use Warren as decoy. Evans has a good shot to beat them deep but we do have to have success running. They got burned by the 2nd stringer QB for Georgia throwing deep which should have led to six if not for the bozo sideline interference call. They are not impenetrable. If we are stymied running then yeah the advantage goes to them. Same story when we are on defense if we can't stop Leonard or their RB. But if we can then advantage us.
ND Stats/team rankings
Maybe this link would be helpful. It's a very good team offensively and defensively. They didn't play great teams but played consistently well all year except for one early season game. Because of that early loss and their mediocre schedule, ND really didn't get much attention and kind of snuck up on people. The consistency is what worries me about them. They aren't going to play a bad game, they aren't going to give anything away. They play aggressive, they have an excellent QB and they don't give stuff away. They're very well coached and they have first rate athletes.
PSU can win this game, they have the athletes and the coaching, they have leadership, they have toughness. But somehow, magically they need to eliminate all the problems that have held them back so far in the playoffs -- inconsistent QB play, dropped passes, defensive PFs, offensive procedure penalties, and coaching brain farts like calling gadget plays when they can run the ball at will. Can PSU clean up ALL that stuff in one week?
What the Vegas line is saying is that PSU can win but they don't expect PSU to win, and that is understandable. PSU has gotten this far without really playing a four-quarter game. They're in the semifinals largely because they haven't played a great team yet. Notre Dame is the best team PSU has seen other than Ohio State.
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I don’t think anyone has any idea how any of these games are going to go. Just checked ESPN’s matchup predictor and they have ND favored by -1.5 with a 58.8% chance of winning. The 58% seems high given the spread but whatever. Meanwhile, OSU is -6 BUT ESPN predictor has Texas favored with a 50.6% chance of winning. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!
FPI uses formula. Their pregame numbers are often wrong. Ohio State should be around 70%...our game is a pick em.
Or going for 2 with 13:50 left in the first quarter.
I saw that too. How can Texas be 6 point underdogs yet be predicted to win 50% of the time. I know the answer is that point spreads and the FPI metric are totally different but still you would expect a better correlation than that.
The ND FPI at 58% does seem high. I think our game is a toss up.
Everything you say sounds logical but you are essentially saying it is likely we make mistakes like penalties and maybe turnovers while ND has no mistakes. If that happens than of course we lose. Don't think it is going to work out that way in terms of it being that exaggerated and black and white.
Also, we are way overblowing these coaching gaffes by us. I'll admit Franklin has not succeeded in big games but I think he has grown as a coach. As for AK and the gadget plays. That is exaggerated. I don't see that being some glaring advantage for ND. By the way is Marcus Smart now some genius coach?
Also the ND win over Georgia is overrated in my opinion. Do I think Georgia is better than Boise? Yes but I think these experts are pumping up Georgia for their brand name and downplaying us beating Boise. Georgia's QB was lousy and I think made the ND defense look better than they are. Plus Georgia gifted them points.
Don't get me wrong, ND is good but very beatable and don't forget their schedule was weak playing little sisters of the poor ACC teams.
Point spreads are set so the betting is evenly split. The FPI is more about actually looking at talent and predicting the outcome. Two different things.
Downs is a difference. He single handedly locked down Warren. OSU's secondary and DL is light years ahead of ND.
We have no chance. Let's just forfeit.
Vegas sets the line to try to get even betting on each side so that they can get the juice.
ND has talent, but certainly not OSU level. Still need to perform on our end. BSU had what 4 sacks and 7 TFLs vs our offense? I think I read that right. It's time for this OL and team in general to get a win like this.
If PiT can shame ND then Penn State can shame ND.
Take note franicia no taunting, clownish ghetto dancing, no stupidity..
Take note franicia no taunting, clownish ghetto dancing, no stupidity..
The public won’t trust us in this spot until we prove otherwise. It’s not really a surprise. However, I think Penn State is the better team… just gotta show it.
One of these narratives is that ND is so "well coached". I have been as frustrated as anyone with some of our penalties (Wormley, all of the defensive ends, I'm looking at you), but we have 50 yards per game, and they have 53. And we have 14 turnovers to their 13, with one of our interceptions coming from a Freshman throwing his first pass, plus that bullshit in the endzone versus Ohio State (it was an incompletion since Wallace was out of bounds).
And I still contend we played much stiffer competition.
Oregon is better than ND. We are better than anyone ND has faced.
USC threw for 360 yards and rushed for 197 in the last game of the season. This ND d is good but they are not infallible. 2 late red zone pick 6s make that game look much worse than it was.
I honestly told people I would rather play George and Notre Dame. I watched them play Georgia Tech game, and I didn't come away very impressed. In my opinion Notre Dame plays a fairly disciplined brand of football and I thought they would give George a lot of problems.
I think Penn State Ken will beat Notre Dame, but I believe other than potentially a rematch of Ohio State it might be a toughest matchup and his playoff for Penn State. I actually think they would beat Texas also if they got a shot them instead of Ohio State.
We produced 14 against Miami. One td on a five yard drive give or take.
We need to play well and limit mistakes to beat them.
The Irish win over Georgia is definitely over-rated. Not just because they only had to face Georgia's career-backup QB, but Georgia also used a backup punter who averaged 9 yards per attempt less than their regular punter.
And of course, Notre Dame's only two touchdowns were flukes. (remember Ohio State has always said the 2016 Penn State win over them happened due to a fluke play).
Kickoff return touchdowns are one of the rarest plays in football at any level. And then ND's touchdown a few seconds before halftime only occurred because of Georgia's stupidity of not taking a knee deep in their own territory with 39 seconds before halftime.
And of course, Notre Dame's only two touchdowns were flukes. (remember Ohio State has always said the 2016 Penn State win over them happened due to a fluke play).
Kickoff return touchdowns are one of the rarest plays in football at any level. And then ND's touchdown a few seconds before halftime only occurred because of Georgia's stupidity of not taking a knee deep in their own territory with 39 seconds before halftime.
It may sound silly to some but I'd add Minnesota to that group of wins
Repeat this over and over. ND does not have OSU talent, not even close. They have a stout front 7 and I’ll be surprised if we rack up 200 yards or something, but we can run on them and move the ball. Their offense is also not scary. This game has like 17-13 written all over it.
If Carter doesn't play or is limited on snaps, etc then we need DDS and Vanover to really step up. I know that is a Captain Obvious statement but what I mean is they need to play smart, fundamentally sound football. Seal the edges and don't let Riley get there. Don't overrun on the pass rush. Wrap the eff up when you have a shot at Riley behind the line of scrimmage and bring him down hard.
Kobe, Dominic and Tony need to not let Riley escape up the middle. Kobe needs to become Riley's worst nightmare.
I think Riley is a 4.6 guy so decent foot speed but he ain't really running away from anyone. Force him into a bad game. He is careful with the ball so not sure if we can get any picks but make him throw incompletions. Getting some pressure would be huge. Allen needs to figure out how to dial the pressure up in creative ways.
Kobe, Dominic and Tony need to not let Riley escape up the middle. Kobe needs to become Riley's worst nightmare.
I think Riley is a 4.6 guy so decent foot speed but he ain't really running away from anyone. Force him into a bad game. He is careful with the ball so not sure if we can get any picks but make him throw incompletions. Getting some pressure would be huge. Allen needs to figure out how to dial the pressure up in creative ways.
I saw Riley get the corner on UGA a few times. He's pretty fast and probably my biggest concern with their offense.
He has good speed and he has good acceleration in my estimation. Regardless of pure speed, he has tremendous instincts and innate skills when it comes to running the ball in the way he sets up blocks and defenders. He’s very tough as well.
You can see some of this in the Purdue/ND highlights as well as the 2023 Clemson/Duke game.
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