Below are the results from the base simulation followed by a simulation with some of the results fixed for PSU's top guys. Generally I don't like to fix any results but year after year Cael's teams do statistically better than expected. This is because he can't coach. Because he can't coach, his all star recruits wrestle harder in practice to make up for his coaching deficiencies. Pure and simple logic. With Brooks, Kerk, and MM fixed to get to the finals (but not assured of winning) you get results given in the bottom screen captures. These are based on 1,000 realizations that take about 4 minutes of computer time.
BASE
In the base results PSU is a very heavy favorite and NC State is the clear leader for second with a very small chance of an upset. A large number of teams could finish anywhere from 3rd to 10th. Penn State has an expected score of 143 with a 3% chance of beating the 170 record (base simulation). This is mostly due to Carter Starocci wrestling like a #9 seed statistically. However, if he is close to 100% healthy I would not want to be anyone in the 174 lb bracket. The pale horse is coming (my prediction).
Based on the results with some of the top PSU guys fixed to make the finals, PSU is expected to score 165 points with a 32% chance of beating the 170 record. If Starocci is fully healthy the record could very well fall. But 125 is not going to be normal where generally 6-7 wrestlers place around their seed at any given weight. Looking at the results there were so many coin flips between top 20 guys. I have faith in Davis but any guy at 125 could unexpectedly go 1-2. Lower points coming from him would likely be made up by Starocci getting more giving around the same probability of beating the record for Penn State.
The delta between 3rd and 9th is only 8 points! SERENITY NOW! Last year NC State and VT scored an average of 11 points BELOW expected and the top Big Ten teams were an average of 15 points ABOVE expected so keep that in mind. Some of you have talked about the problems with the seeding criteria like conference place where you are in a conference with maybe only one other top 20 guy at your weight and you wrestle two matches to win compared to one with eight or nine. Underseeding primarily punishes the overseeded wrestlers. They get dumped to difficult positions in the backside brackets. My advice is to look where you think your guy is too high, that is the most likely one to get in trouble. One thing is for sure it is going to be a scrap for the three trophies behind first.
FIXED
Do we need a probabilistic model to get the results this year? I think not. In fact the numerical results are summarized nicely by the following figure:
The Dunning-Kruger effect runs HOT in some wrestling circles!!!! Keep applying that lemon juice my friends.
UFF
BASE
In the base results PSU is a very heavy favorite and NC State is the clear leader for second with a very small chance of an upset. A large number of teams could finish anywhere from 3rd to 10th. Penn State has an expected score of 143 with a 3% chance of beating the 170 record (base simulation). This is mostly due to Carter Starocci wrestling like a #9 seed statistically. However, if he is close to 100% healthy I would not want to be anyone in the 174 lb bracket. The pale horse is coming (my prediction).
Based on the results with some of the top PSU guys fixed to make the finals, PSU is expected to score 165 points with a 32% chance of beating the 170 record. If Starocci is fully healthy the record could very well fall. But 125 is not going to be normal where generally 6-7 wrestlers place around their seed at any given weight. Looking at the results there were so many coin flips between top 20 guys. I have faith in Davis but any guy at 125 could unexpectedly go 1-2. Lower points coming from him would likely be made up by Starocci getting more giving around the same probability of beating the record for Penn State.
The delta between 3rd and 9th is only 8 points! SERENITY NOW! Last year NC State and VT scored an average of 11 points BELOW expected and the top Big Ten teams were an average of 15 points ABOVE expected so keep that in mind. Some of you have talked about the problems with the seeding criteria like conference place where you are in a conference with maybe only one other top 20 guy at your weight and you wrestle two matches to win compared to one with eight or nine. Underseeding primarily punishes the overseeded wrestlers. They get dumped to difficult positions in the backside brackets. My advice is to look where you think your guy is too high, that is the most likely one to get in trouble. One thing is for sure it is going to be a scrap for the three trophies behind first.
FIXED
Do we need a probabilistic model to get the results this year? I think not. In fact the numerical results are summarized nicely by the following figure:
The Dunning-Kruger effect runs HOT in some wrestling circles!!!! Keep applying that lemon juice my friends.
UFF
