WrestleStat Prediction Engine Results

[andegre]

I thought I'd analyze the results so far, check it out if you're interested...

https://wrestlestat.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/wrestlestat-prediction-engine-results-so-far/

 

[Dogwelder]

I thought I'd analyze the results so far, check it out if you're interested...

https://wrestlestat.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/wrestlestat-prediction-engine-results-so-far/

Have you analyzed for just the subset of D1-D1 matches that do not involve true freshmen? That would be more fair to your system, since we know for sure the true freshmen's ratings are not yet solid.

 

[andegre]

Have you analyzed for just the subset of D1-D1 matches that do not involve true freshmen? That would be more fair to your system, since we know for sure the true freshmen's ratings are not yet solid.

Good point, I'll re-run the process to exclude those guys (and guys like Kolodzik where this is their first year on a Division I team)

 

[ZepGraffiti]

Good point, I'll re-run the process to exclude those guys (and guys like Kolodzik where this is their first year on a Division I team)

Guys like Kolodzik could mean Joseph, Kemmerer, Massa, the Valencia's, Hayes, etc.
Are you re-running w/o all the RS frosh or is there other criteria for removing just some individuals?
"first year on a D1 team"?? Like some Ivies and/or bumped up guys like Naser only?

BTW: Love the site. I seem to hit it up daily for one reason or another. Kudos

 

[Flying_Tiger]

tOSU 37 Arizona 0 ….Interesting dual prediction. Think I'll take the Sun Devils +37

 

[andegre]

Guys like Kolodzik could mean Joseph, Kemmerer, Massa, the Valencia's, Hayes, etc.
Are you re-running w/o all the RS frosh or is there other criteria for removing just some individuals?
"first year on a D1 team"?? Like some Ivies and/or bumped up guys like Naser only?

BTW: Love the site. I seem to hit it up daily for one reason or another. Kudos

Wrestlers where this is their first year on a D1 roster. (ie Kolodzik, Suriano, etc).

Now that you say that though, guys like A Valencia should be filtered out too because even though this is his second year on ASU's roster, he didn't wrestle any matches last year, so he'll have the default rating also (and no matches to be used in the prediction engine).

What may make it easier is if I just filter out all wrestlers that have a preseason ranking equal to the default ranking...that should take care of all scenarios (Suriano, Kolodzik, A Valencia, etc).

 

[andegre]

tOSU 37 Arizona 0 ….Interesting dual prediction. Think I'll take the Sun Devils +37

Ha, yeah. When I first saw that I thought I found a bug, but reading through the dual comparison that shows all the predictions.....it's accurate (according to the data that I have).

 

[andegre]

Guys like Kolodzik could mean Joseph, Kemmerer, Massa, the Valencia's, Hayes, etc.
Are you re-running w/o all the RS frosh or is there other criteria for removing just some individuals?
"first year on a D1 team"?? Like some Ivies and/or bumped up guys like Naser only?

BTW: Love the site. I seem to hit it up daily for one reason or another. Kudos

I re-ran the numbers removing those guys. Results are definitely improved...

https://wrestlestat.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/wrestlestat-prediction-engine-results-so-far/

 

[andegre]

This has been updated with first year Division I wrestlers removed.