WrestleStat Week 4 Rankings

[andegre]

Wrestler Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/wrestler

Dual Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/dual

Tournament Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament

Don't forget, with the new feature released yesterday, the Tournament Projection Tool, you can now essentially create your own rankings, and share with everyone.

Here's a link to the Tournament Projection Tool page: https://www.wrestlestat.com/tourney/projection

 

[Nittany.Lion]

Wrestler Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/wrestler

Dual Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/dual

Tournament Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament

Don't forget, with the new feature released yesterday, the Tournament Projection Tool, you can now essentially create your own rankings, and share with everyone.

Here's a link to the Tournament Projection Tool page: https://www.wrestlestat.com/tourney/projection

quick look at 197... where's AC? and how does PD3 move up to one, passing Moore, without wrestling?

 

[andegre]

quick look at 197... where's AC? and how does PD3 move up to one, passing Moore, without wrestling?

Who is AC?

 

[funkisfun12]

Who is AC?

Wasn't he driving the bronco?

 

[dbldoofus]

"My name is AC – you know who I am g-ddammit!"

 

[Nittany.Lion]

Who is AC?

Cassar

 

[Chickenman Testa]

quick look at 197... where's AC? and how does PD3 move up to one, passing Moore, without wrestling?

That’s hilarious!!!! Computer doesn’t want to get thrown on its head by a BAMF!!

 

[NoVa Lion]

Who is AC?

Anthony Cassar, who is our starter at 197 and beat, per your rankings, the #8 and #9 ranked wrestlers at the Keystone Classic.

 

[pish69]

quick look at 197... where's AC? and how does PD3 move up to one, passing Moore, without wrestling?

The Elo system takes into account twitter wars won, Honestly I love the wrestlestats sight, but I'll be damned if I understand how these rankings work.

Everyone loves saying it's a "Elo system based on data" which doesn't answer anything. How in the world is Dean Heil ranked 3rd when he hasn't lost a match in ages, 2 time NCAA champ but Pat Downey who hasn't wrestled in 2 yrs gets the 1 spot??

 

[dunkej01]

Who is AC?

This is AC.....

 

[andegre]

Thanks everyone, I'll have these investigated and let you know in a couple days.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

The Elo system takes into account twitter wars won, Honestly I love the wrestlestats sight, but I'll be damned if I understand how these rankings work.

Everyone loves saying it's a "Elo system based on data" which doesn't answer anything. How in the world is Dean Heil ranked 3rd when he hasn't lost a match in ages, 2 time NCAA champ but Pat Downey who hasn't wrestled in 2 yrs gets the 1 spot??

Because you are hung up on the #1, #2, #3 ranking, when that ranking is actually based on the ELO mathematical value. The ELO math takes into account who you've beaten, giving more points for beating better opponents.

Kevin Jack's ELO points took a big jump at nationals last year, from 1524 to 1539, and he now sits at 1545, while Heil has moved about the same amount this year, but started at 1518.

The possible indications here are:
1. KJ's strength of schedule for his career has been better.
2. KJ has had more bonus wins.
3. Both 1 & 2.

 

[pish69]

Because you are hung up on the #1, #2, #3 ranking, when that ranking is actually based on the ELO mathematical value. The ELO math takes into account who you've beaten, giving more points for beating better opponents.

Kevin Jack's ELO points took a big jump at nationals last year, from 1524 to 1539, and he now sits at 1545, while Heil has moved about the same amount this year, but started at 1518.

The possible indications here are:
1. KJ's strength of schedule for his career has been better.
2. KJ has had more bonus wins.
3. Both 1 & 2.

I'm not hung up on 1, 2 3 or whatever you suggested. You can come up with all the formulas you want and none would lead to Jack over Heil and Ashnault over Heil. Use some common sense before throwing out "ELO" Heil has never lose to Jack or Ashnault and has beaten them more than once. Heil wrestles a full schedule so it's not like he's missed time while others are competing.

Why try to defend something that makes NO sense? And I'm not picking on Adegre..I love his stuff but this one has my mind boggled.

Tell me how Downey moved to #1?? If you can explain that one, I'd be interested in what formula you come up with since he hasn't wrestled this year, wrestled 7 matches last year and beat no one of note.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

I'm not hung up on 1, 2 3 or whatever you suggested. You can come up with all the formulas you want and none would lead to Jack over Heil and Ashnault over Heil. Use some common sense before throwing out "ELO" Heil has never lose to Jack or Ashnault and has beaten them more than once. Heil wrestles a full schedule so it's not like he's missed time while others are competing.

Why try to defend something that makes NO sense? And I'm not picking on Adegre..I love his stuff but this one has my mind boggled.

Tell me how Downey moved to #1?? If you can explain that one, I'd be interested in what formula you come up with since he hasn't wrestled this year, wrestled 7 matches last year and beat no one of note.

Why do you bother looking at these rankings? And, why do you want to discuss them?

I think Downey was ranked in the 184 rankings previously and his ELO rating puts him at 197 #1. Everyone below his ELO rank in 184 appears to have moved up a spot

 

[pish69]

Why do you bother looking at these rankings? And, why do you want to discuss them?

I think Downey was ranked in the 184 rankings previously and his ELO rating puts him at 197 #1. Everyone below his ELO rank in 184 appears to have moved up a spot

Why do you/we look at any rankings? What kind of comment is that? The rankings are put out there for people to talk about, nothing else.

If you or someone else can explain this ELO formula on Downey and Heil (I don't even care about the others), these are the two that I can't grasp. You have one guy who hasn't lost in 2 yrs and has beaten EVERYONE good at that weight class and most mutiple times ranked 3rd and Downey who doesn't wrestle goes to 1.

If there's a mistake in the formula, great, I can understand it, mistakes happen. If there's no mistake then the formula is wrong.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Why do you/we look at any rankings? What kind of comment is that? The rankings are put out there for people to talk about, nothing else.

If you or someone else can explain this ELO formula on Downey and Heil (I don't even care about the others), these are the two that I can't grasp. You have one guy who hasn't lost in 2 yrs and has beaten EVERYONE good at that weight class and most mutiple times ranked 3rd and Downey who doesn't wrestle goes to 1.

If there's a mistake in the formula, great, I can understand it, mistakes happen. If there's no mistake then the formula is wrong.

Because you, yourself, made the comment that it makes no sense. Yet, here you are.

 

[pish69]

Because you, yourself, made the comment that it makes no sense. Yet, here you are.

This is a message board..should I ignore things and not comment on a message board? When you come up with the formula, for those two, let me know

 

[pawrestlersintn]

This is a message board..should I ignore things and not comment on a message board? When you come up with the formula, for those two, let me know

ELO is a lifetime achievement award, not a here and now ranking system.

Record:
Jack:90-17
Heil: 111-13

Bonus Percentage:
Jack: 47.66%
Heil: 37.90%

# of Top 20 Wresters Faced:
Jack: 37 (31.6% of bouts)
Heil: 42 (33.9% of bouts)

The math uses the ELO rating of the opponents (strength of schedule) and the win point differential (strength of wins) as two factors to determine the ELO rating. Using the data above, and the fact that ELO is lifetime, I don't have a hard time wrapping my head around a 1.3% point differential on ratings in the 1550 range.

I've already given my explanation on what I think happened with Downey.

 

[pish69]

ELO is a lifetime achievement award, not a here and now ranking system.

Record:
Jack:90-17
Heil: 111-13

Bonus Percentage:
Jack: 47.66%
Heil: 37.90%

# of Top 20 Wresters Faced:
Jack: 37 (31.6% of bouts)
Heil: 42 (33.9% of bouts)

The math uses the ELO rating of the opponents (strength of schedule) and the win point differential (strength of wins) as two factors to determine the ELO rating. Using the data above, and the fact that ELO is lifetime, I don't have a hard time wrapping my head around a 1.3% point differential on ratings in the 1550 range.

I've already given my explanation on what I think happened with Downey.

And Heil is 2-0 against Jack and 4-0 against Ashnault..if you don't see the problem then me and you come from two different worlds.

I didn't see any explanation for Downey other than he hasn't wrestled?

 

[pawrestlersintn]

And Heil is 2-0 against Jack and 4-0 against Ashnault..if you don't see the problem then me and you come from two different worlds.

I didn't see any explanation for Downey other than he hasn't wrestled?

From my message #41, "I think Downey was ranked in the 184 rankings previously and his ELO rating puts him at 197 #1. Everyone below his ELO rank in 184 appears to have moved up a spot." His #1, #2, #3, that you claim not to be worried about, changed, but his ELO score did not.

Here is the real problem with using the ELO rating system for wrestling. If Andegre did perform a tweak to the math, let's say reduce the value of a bonus point win, so that Heil is in front of Jack, it would cause other changes to take place elsewhere in the ratings. And, someone like, oh, I don't know, pish69 would come along and bitch about that.

 

[RoarLions1]

Fun stuff, these rankings!! Done them myself, the manual labor kind, where some positioning within the rankings ended up being determined by rock-paper-scissors.

Tried to put out a good product, but never took them too seriously. Flaws all around, as too often the wrestlers just didn't listen, lol.

 

[pish69]

From my message #41, "I think Downey was ranked in the 184 rankings previously and his ELO rating puts him at 197 #1. Everyone below his ELO rank in 184 appears to have moved up a spot." His #1, #2, #3, that you claim not to be worried about, changed, but his ELO score did not.

Here is the real problem with using the ELO rating system for wrestling. If Andegre did perform a tweak to the math, let's say reduce the value of a bonus point win, so that Heil is in front of Jack, it would cause other changes to take place elsewhere in the ratings. And, someone like, oh, I don't know, pish69 would come along and bitch about that.

You’re so damn dense not even sure why I’m wasting my time with you. Think of it this way genius...

You’re Dean Heil. You’ve won 2 straight NCAA titles and haven’t lost in forever. You’ve beaten every wrestler in top 10 multiple times but somebody like you supports a ranking of third. You don’t think Dean Heil would laugh in your face?

I do. Now go play with your Elo system and have fun

 

[RoarLions1]

You’re so damn dense not even sure why I’m wasting my time with you. Think of it this way genius...

You’re Dean Heil. You’ve won 2 straight NCAA titles and haven’t lost in forever. You’ve beaten every wrestler in top 10 multiple times but somebody like you supports a ranking of third. You don’t think Dean Heil would laugh in your face?

I do. Now go play with your Elo system and have fun

Not sure why all the anger, I thought pawrestlerintn was doing a good job explaining the ELO system.

 

[dunkej01]

Not sure why all the anger, I thought pawrestlerintn was doing a good job explaining the ELO system.

This is the beginning of skynet.

 

[PSUisawesome]

This is the beginning of skynet.

Three minutes after ELO became self aware it saw that the wrestlers were the real threat to its ranking system their unreliablility was unacceptable. Within seconds wrestlers were disappearing the world over. The fans were next. We are the resistance!

 

[pawrestlersintn]

You’re so damn dense not even sure why I’m wasting my time with you. Think of it this way genius...

You’re Dean Heil. You’ve won 2 straight NCAA titles and haven’t lost in forever. You’ve beaten every wrestler in top 10 multiple times but somebody like you supports a ranking of third. You don’t think Dean Heil would laugh in your face?

I do. Now go play with your Elo system and have fun

I don't play with the ELO system, nor do I support a ranking of third. The math is what the math is. Is it wrong? No, the math is right. It gives the results it is supposed to, based on some man-made suppositions. That's all math ever does.

I don't recommend changing it, because at this point, a) I understand its limitations, b) again, changing it might affect other rankings negatively, and c) I get more pleasure in watching people like you whine and get emotionally bent out of shape about it in its current form. Since Dean Heil was, at one time, planning on studying zoology, and that requires at least some higher level math, I'm guessing he could understand those limitations, and he and I could laugh at you together.

What I really wish is that every ranking in existence would be identical. That would be so much fun. Don't you? Maybe we could have just one ranking system.

 

[pish69]

Not sure why all the anger, I thought pawrestlerintn was doing a good job explaining the ELO system.

No anger here. Just wondering what mathematical formula can come up with Heil third and Downey 1st.

If it was a person doing the rankings then it is what it is. One persons opinion.

What I can’t wrap my head around is how can a mathematical formula come up with these results.

You say he explained it? All he did was give the stats which all lean heavily towards Heil. More matches won, better head to head, better competition, etc. So Pa could say I’m “whining.” I’m merely looking for what possible formula can have Heil third and Downey 1st. Doesn’t make sense. I’m not calling out Adegre. He didn’t do the rankings..his “system” did. I’m questioning the system on these 2 examples.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

No anger here. Just wondering what mathematical formula can come up with Heil third and Downey 1st.

If it was a person doing the rankings then it is what it is. One persons opinion.

What I can’t wrap my head around is how can a mathematical formula come up with these results.

You say he explained it? All he did was give the stats which all lean heavily towards Heil. More matches won, better head to head, better competition, etc. So Pa could say I’m “whining.” I’m merely looking for what possible formula can have Heil third and Downey 1st. Doesn’t make sense. I’m not calling out Adegre. He didn’t do the rankings..his “system” did. I’m questioning the system on these 2 examples.

Statistically, the data does not lean "heavily" towards Heil. Winning percentage and # of Top 20 wrestlers faced are statistically insignificant. Conveniently, you left out bonus point wins, which is statistically very favorable to Jack. 47.66 to 36.9. That's 10.76% or 30% better for Jack. Since win point differential is a factor in the equation, that's a big difference.

I did not give head to head statistics, because they don't play into the equation like they do for a human. They are just two more matches between two guys with similar ELO ratings, which in the grand scheme of ELO don't affect one guy's ELO very much.

Neither of us should make sweeping generalizations about the quality of competition, however, unless we actually do the math. That's because the math relies on the ELO rating, not the arbitrary #1, #2, #3, of the competitor. And, a win against an ELO of 1200 is very different from a win against an ELO of 1500.

If you're really interested, there's plenty of information available on the internet about ELO. Also, PD2 once whined about PD3's rankings, and said he would use his engineering degree to fix it, so maybe the two of you can get together and fix it for Andegre.

 

[kingslayer_85]

I don't play with the ELO system, nor do I support a ranking of third. The math is what the math is. Is it wrong? No, the math is right. It gives the results it is supposed to, based on some man-made suppositions. That's all math ever does.

I don't recommend changing it, because at this point, a) I understand its limitations, b) again, changing it might affect other rankings negatively, and c) I get more pleasure in watching people like you whine and get emotionally bent out of shape about it in its current form. Since Dean Heil was, at one time, planning on studying zoology, and that requires at least some higher level math, I'm guessing he could understand those limitations, and he and I could laugh at you together.

What I really wish is that every ranking in existence would be identical. That would be so much fun. Don't you? Maybe we could have just one ranking system.

I listen to ELO
By the way touring next year in the US for the first time since I was in high school, playing at Philadelphia August 24th

 

[andegre]

I'm not hung up on 1, 2 3 or whatever you suggested. You can come up with all the formulas you want and none would lead to Jack over Heil and Ashnault over Heil. Use some common sense before throwing out "ELO" Heil has never lose to Jack or Ashnault and has beaten them more than once. Heil wrestles a full schedule so it's not like he's missed time while others are competing.

Why try to defend something that makes NO sense? And I'm not picking on Adegre..I love his stuff but this one has my mind boggled.

Tell me how Downey moved to #1?? If you can explain that one, I'd be interested in what formula you come up with since he hasn't wrestled this year, wrestled 7 matches last year and beat no one of note.

Sorry, Downey is easy. His previous ranking was for 184. His ELO value actually never changed this week (he hasn't wrestled yet). Someone switched him to 197, and since that weight is much weaker, it would APPEAR as though he moved up in rankings, but in reality his ELO value never changed, just the competition at the new weight is easier.

Edit: I moved him back to 184 since I believe that's where he'll be going come January...

 

[PSUisawesome]

I listen to ELO
By the way touring next year in the US for the first time since I was in high school, playing at Philadelphia August 24th

I heard they had transitioned to ranking college wrestling after taking the world by storm during the opening scene of Gaurdians of the Galaxy 2. Glad to see they still have time for playing music.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

What I really wish is that every ranking in existence would be identical. That would be so much fun. Don't you? Maybe we could have just one ranking system.

If it was a good system, that may not be a bad idea.

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

No anger here. Just wondering what mathematical formula can come up with Heil third and Downey 1st.

If it was a person doing the rankings then it is what it is. One persons opinion.

What I can’t wrap my head around is how can a mathematical formula come up with these results.

You say he explained it? All he did was give the stats which all lean heavily towards Heil. More matches won, better head to head, better competition, etc. So Pa could say I’m “whining.” I’m merely looking for what possible formula can have Heil third and Downey 1st. Doesn’t make sense. I’m not calling out Adegre. He didn’t do the rankings..his “system” did. I’m questioning the system on these 2 examples.

If instead of using ELO, height was used to calculate rankings and Heil slipped out of the top 20 would you still question how it is possible for a 2x champ that hasn't lost in 2 years could not be number one in that ranking? No because the math is what it is.

BTW, Heil would get a bump in both the ELO and height rankings if "current win streak" and "NCAA titles" were factored in. But they aren't so he isn't.

 

[tikk10]

I wish andegre would create an FAQ so we wouldn't have to go through this same discussion every single time, always starting with someone angry that an algorithm doesn't correspond to the ranking in his mind, and therefore shouldn't exist. An ELO based ranking is what it is and once you understand it, and what it measures, you realize that it's got its own intrinsic value as a contrast to the traditional models. If it's flawed, that's fine, it's an ongoing project.

But every instance of "wrestler x isn't ranked where I think he should be so wrestlestat rankings are dumb" is a tired exercise.

 

[andegre]

Have the FAQ page in my old version of the site, just never transferred it over. I'll get that on my radar.

 

[Gebmo]

Interesting how things are perceived.

For me, I didn't take Pish69's comments negatively at all. I thought the same thing. It was to me the logical conclusion when seeing those "anomaly's" for people into stats. He just happened to say it on the board. Gut feeling. I'm sure technically he "knew" the answer (its an algorithm and therefore imperfect....like us), but wanted to talk about it. What's wrong with that?

An explanation of the algorithm is NOT necessary since this is obviously an outlier issue. I doubt many (if any) here truly know the inner workings and hidden mechanisms of the algorithm and programming Andegre uses anyway, to be able to truly speak to the issue. So we just say its an algorithm and imperfect.....and debate it.

What escalated this was the negativity in the responses. Pish was not "angry"...at least not until he was asked why bother even posting? Why do you care? I would have been too at that point.

Why talk about rankings? Why debate teams? Because its fun. Helps us learn more about the thing we enjoy. I thought that is why we are all here. Gives us something to enjoy between the matches. Why is one person's question ok and another's not? There is no hierarchy of fans here that I know of.

There is a very subtle condescension at times on the board that ticks people off unnecessarily imo. A little patience with differing personalities goes a long way. I am guilty of it myself so speak from experience. Not everyone "knows" people inside the program or has access to inside information. We don't all think the same way. Not everyone can keep up with things all the time. If someone asks what you think is a "dumb" question....ignore it if you can't be civil about it instead of giving the dig. Let someone more patient answer, or someone with some humor, or no one at all if it doesn't deserve an answer (troll questions).

We do the same thing with visitors. A Vodka comes over who is obviously just trying to instigate, and instead of just ignoring his comments and moving on, we get trigger happy and slap down others (many times in a very subtle unfriendly way) that come in peace, but with a differing view. Same on most boards by the way, but we don't have to be like others. I will say though that we do have some very patient people on this board that do a good job in this way, much better than I would be able to do.

Stepping down. I for one am in a good mood. I like where we are at as a team and I think differing viewpoints are good for discussion....during the time between times of no wrestling.

 

[pish69]

Thank you Gebmo. You put that much more eloquently than I ever could and you are 100% accurate in your assessment.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Interesting how things are perceived.

For me, I didn't take Pish69's comments negatively at all. I thought the same thing. It was to me the logical conclusion when seeing those "anomaly's" for people into stats. He just happened to say it on the board. Gut feeling. I'm sure technically he "knew" the answer (its an algorithm and therefore imperfect....like us), but wanted to talk about it. What's wrong with that?

An explanation of the algorithm is NOT necessary since this is obviously an outlier issue. I doubt many (if any) here truly know the inner workings and hidden mechanisms of the algorithm and programming Andegre uses anyway, to be able to truly speak to the issue. So we just say its an algorithm and imperfect.....and debate it.

What escalated this was the negativity in the responses. Pish was not "angry"...at least not until he was asked why bother even posting? Why do you care? I would have been too at that point.

Why talk about rankings? Why debate teams? Because its fun. Helps us learn more about the thing we enjoy. I thought that is why we are all here. Gives us something to enjoy between the matches. Why is one person's question ok and another's not? There is no hierarchy of fans here that I know of.

There is a very subtle condescension at times on the board that ticks people off unnecessarily imo. A little patience with differing personalities goes a long way. I am guilty of it myself so speak from experience. Not everyone "knows" people inside the program or has access to inside information. We don't all think the same way. Not everyone can keep up with things all the time. If someone asks what you think is a "dumb" question....ignore it if you can't be civil about it instead of giving the dig. Let someone more patient answer, or someone with some humor, or no one at all if it doesn't deserve an answer (troll questions).

We do the same thing with visitors. A Vodka comes over who is obviously just trying to instigate, and instead of just ignoring his comments and moving on, we get trigger happy and slap down others (many times in a very subtle unfriendly way) that come in peace, but with a differing view. Same on most boards by the way, but we don't have to be like others. I will say though that we do have some very patient people on this board that do a good job in this way, much better than I would be able to do.

Stepping down. I for one am in a good mood. I like where we are at as a team and I think differing viewpoints are good for discussion....during the time between times of no wrestling.

Pish's trigger was apparently me saying, "You're hung up on #1, #2, #3..." Absolutely no malice was intended with that statement. It was not ad hominem. It was not derogatory. It was a statement of what I believed was contributing to his opinion.

And, you're right, perception is everything, because he said, "Use some common sense..." and my perception was that he was accusing me of not using common sense.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Downey’s ranking is just too damn high!!!

 

[D3wrestler]

Interesting how things are perceived.

For me, I didn't take Pish69's comments negatively at all. I thought the same thing. It was to me the logical conclusion when seeing those "anomaly's" for people into stats. He just happened to say it on the board. Gut feeling. I'm sure technically he "knew" the answer (its an algorithm and therefore imperfect....like us), but wanted to talk about it. What's wrong with that?

An explanation of the algorithm is NOT necessary since this is obviously an outlier issue. I doubt many (if any) here truly know the inner workings and hidden mechanisms of the algorithm and programming Andegre uses anyway, to be able to truly speak to the issue. So we just say its an algorithm and imperfect.....and debate it.

What escalated this was the negativity in the responses. Pish was not "angry"...at least not until he was asked why bother even posting? Why do you care? I would have been too at that point.

Why talk about rankings? Why debate teams? Because its fun. Helps us learn more about the thing we enjoy. I thought that is why we are all here. Gives us something to enjoy between the matches. Why is one person's question ok and another's not? There is no hierarchy of fans here that I know of.

There is a very subtle condescension at times on the board that ticks people off unnecessarily imo. A little patience with differing personalities goes a long way. I am guilty of it myself so speak from experience. Not everyone "knows" people inside the program or has access to inside information. We don't all think the same way. Not everyone can keep up with things all the time. If someone asks what you think is a "dumb" question....ignore it if you can't be civil about it instead of giving the dig. Let someone more patient answer, or someone with some humor, or no one at all if it doesn't deserve an answer (troll questions).

We do the same thing with visitors. A Vodka comes over who is obviously just trying to instigate, and instead of just ignoring his comments and moving on, we get trigger happy and slap down others (many times in a very subtle unfriendly way) that come in peace, but with a differing view. Same on most boards by the way, but we don't have to be like others. I will say though that we do have some very patient people on this board that do a good job in this way, much better than I would be able to do.

Stepping down. I for one am in a good mood. I like where we are at as a team and I think differing viewpoints are good for discussion....during the time between times of no wrestling.

Very well stated on all points.